Wuhan Virus Update, February 15, 2020

Luke 21:11b …and in various places famines and pestilences. -Jesus

February 15, 2020: China continues to try and manage the spread of the Wuhan Corona virus.

China food Getty

Food supplies are starting to become an issue. Grocery stores are running out of food. The government is shipping truck loads of food into Wuhan and other quarantined cities. Despite government orders, people are stocking up and preparing for the long hall. Costs of food are going up due to shortages.

Demographers and disease modelers are becoming increasingly suspicious of the data coming out of China.

The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (CGIDA) in London estimates the mortality rate for the Wuhan virus is about 1%. China is currently reporting 67,000+ infected with 1,527 deaths. Math suggests the number of infected should be close to 150,000 infected instead.

Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) made the following observations. The number of people infected is doubling approximately every 5 days. There are possibly 50,000 new infections every day in China. The virus is projected to grow over the next month (mid March) with a possible peak at that time locally in the Wuhan area. The peak for the remainder of China is expected to be another month later (mid April). For Professor Ferguson’s complete comments, see the YouTube link below.

 

Other disease modelers estimate the number of cases may ultimately range from 550,000 to 4,400,000. The link below discusses the issue with leading modelers from Los Alamos National Lab, Northeastern University, The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Laval University in Quebec, Canada.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

Here is the latest from headlines from around the globe.

  • 67,000+ infected world wide
  • 1,527 deaths reported
  • 500 million people on lock down in China
  • Beijing imposes 14 day quarantine for people returning to the city
  • First case reported in Africa in Egypt
  • United States military is preparing for pandemic
  • Vietnam has closed its border with China
  • Russia has closed its border with China

Track virus statistics at the Johns Hopkins CSSE link below.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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