Russia and Ukraine, February 7, 2022… Czekmate’s Analysis & Commentary

Czekmate’s ‘beer an peanuts’ take on the operational situation…

The Russian military is ‘ready to fight tonight’. Would it be optimal? Not by Russian standards. They can go now, but me thinks they’d like a full moon (Feb. 16th), solidly frozen ground (Ease of tracked vehicle movement — Feb. 15th-ish) and clear skies.

Similarly, Russian doctrine has generally geared it’s offensive power around indirect fires (artillery, missiles, mortars and close air support). Massed D-30 Howitzers have been imaged by commercial satellites, but that may not be indicative of the entire front. Some pictures have been snapped in Belarus of Iskandar surface to surface missiles. Close air support arrives on the Belarus from from the Pacific region 48 hours ago. This is not enough time to familiarize all of it’s pilots with the airspace they will be flying over.

The Russian doctrine of hybrid warfare demands that certain information and ‘psyop’ measures be put into place ahead of hostilities. No word on the volume of these against the usual baseline of antagonism between the belligerents. Above all though, the diplomatic solution AFTER a certain amount of territory has been gobbled up is essential. Much of the Russian official delegation to Beijing appears to have returned to Moscow just yesterday.

A rumor went out via social media that Putin had gone to Sochi. Czekmate could not substantiate that and then gave up on looking. Could be true… dunno


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