Paul the Poke

Ezekiel 38:10-12 Thus says the Lord God: “On that day it shall come to pass that thoughts will arise in your mind, and you will make an evil plan: You (Gog) will say, “I will go up against a land of unwalled villages; I will go to a peaceful people, who dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates to take plunder and to take booty, to stretch out your hand against the waste places that are again inhabited, and against a people gathered from the nations, who have acquired livestock and goods, who dwell in the midst of the land…”

With God’s help, Bibi can walk this tightrope. But now, at least the formation of the government hurdle is past the President’s office.

Many important strategic decisions will shake out of this. Regional allies (crazy age we live in that one can type that with respect to Israel) want to see a muscular, assertive Israel that acts with dignity. These would be the Abraham Accord partners. Rumor has it that if another weak Lapid like coalition government had come out of the elections that the Saudis would have continued fence sitting. The same set of speculation to Czekmate holds that with a reliably strong leader like Netanyahu, the Saudis are disposed to negotiating a more durable peace with Israel.

What is even more fascinating is that in partnership with Israel, the Arabs are prepared to go their own way on economic redundancies.

Much of the world’s energy must cross through three maritime choke points:
– the Strait of Hormuz, where the Persian Gulf empties to the Indian ocean;
– the Strait of Bab al Mandeb, where the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean meet;
– the Suez Canal, joining the Mediterranean and Red Seas.

In the cases of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandeb, there are Iranian direct or proxy military hazards to free navigation. In Egypt, which is the custodian of the Suez Canal, there is a stirring of the Muslim Brotherhood within the country.

Among western oriented Arab elite, there is growing doubt over the attenuated strength of the US Navy and it’s enduring strategy to keep maritime sea-lanes and choke points open.

The remedy, since the Briben administration came into office, has been to work bilaterally with a strong Israel. But alas, they’ve had a downright epicene (and corrupt) specimen of a government in Jerusalem under Lapid. There was not much upon which to predicate a reliable diplomatic/economic partnership. Netanyahu’s success renews a dynamic that again invites serious, durable changes to the national economic postures of all concerned.

The credible rumor of what is ahead went on, that Saudi Arabia would be more inclined to negotiate a permanent peace with attendant economic measures. This includes, major capital investments in partnership with the UAE to build pipeline infrastructure from the Persian Gulf to the Israeli coast for onward export. This would bypass all three maritime chokepoints, diminishing the growing Iranian influence in all three places and hedge against the absence of a robust and ubiquitous US Navy upholding it’s tacit obligation to enforce freedom of navigation in those places.

Solution wise, is this a panacea? No. It presents a whole new set of problems.

Having Israeli gas online in concert with overland energy flows, you are now talking a supra-national energy output to Europe that rivals Russia. Russia and Iran have become more symbiotic than ever, especially since the Ukrainian mis-adventure. More on that at another time perhaps.

In the meantime, keeping an eye on Israeli government formation is the mission of the day.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/deri-demands-finance-ministry-smotrich-insisting-on-defense-portfolio/

Ezekiel 38:13 Sheba, Dedan, the merchants of Tarshish, and all their young lions will say to you, “Have you come to take plunder? Have you gathered your army to take booty, to carry away silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods, to take great plunder?”

https://valortube.com/profile/czekmate/