Archive for October, 2018

Prepare for a Housing Correction

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on October 29, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

 

https://michaeldouville.com/

This is not good news. As you know by now, I have been in the Real Estate business for over 45 years and I have experienced first hand the effects of the Business Cycle and the Real Estate Cycle. My first experience with a Cycle Completion taught me to respect   the sheer and unforgiving power of the Cycle and I have been a Student ever since.  I will share what I have learned.

Michael Douville’s website

There is a Cycle to Everything; rain, drought, moon, eclipse, orbits, Sun Spots, and what I am concerned with today, the Real Estate Cycle. Edward R. Dewy, Phil Anderson, and several contemporary researchers have identified the 18.5 year cycle for housing.  The Great Financial Crisis and the bursting of the unsustainable Housing Bubble is an indelible period burned in many Investors memories.  The decline started really in 2007 and accelerated into 2008. My Home market is the Phoenix MSA ; one of the 4 most adversely affected markets in the Nation. I definitely remember! What is harder to pinpoint is the bottom of the trough as it becomes a process drawn out over several months. However, in the Phoenix MSA, bottom was achieved sometime in the very late 2009 to very early 2010. Virtually all of the troubled markets seemed to bottom  together. In my Conferences, I use January 1, 2010 as the turning point. Researchers and statistics indicate the Real Estate cycle is 18.5 years which places the next bottom July 1, 2028; in a perfect world. That is almost 10 years from now: so what?

Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk!

housingcorrection

The Real Estate Cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again. Cycle data in the US recorded as far back as 300 years; to pre-revolution!  Also repeating in the data is a period of vulnerability for a Housing Correction 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom. This corresponds to July 2017 to June 2019; the current time frame!  These corrections can be very vicious or relatively mild. My personal concern is for an Epic Correction.  When investing, these cycles become exit and entry points for Capital Deployment as well harbingers for Economic Distress for Real Estate Slowdowns seem to be always accompanied by a Stock, Bond, or Economic corrections which will affect jobs, interest rates,  Foreign Exchange,  and therefore businesses and families. Forewarned is forearmed. I have been warning about this vulnerability for 18 months; advising  to raise cash and reduce debt. Nationally, Existing Home Sales have dropped for the last 7 months and September sales plunged! Indeed, as an example, the very vibrant Denver Market experienced a 30% drop in sales across all price ranges in a 30 day period from August to September. Declining sales is the preview to declining prices. The Correction in Housing has probably begun!

This graph, courtesy of ECRI, clearly shows the decline.

Someday, the cause of the decline will be researched, but now coupled with the Housing Correction is a Global Economic Slowdown underway causing turmoil overseas and ravaging the Emerging Markets. The Slowdown had been recognized by very few and the effects have not become apparent in the US yet.

However, Ned Davis Research has released their recent findings with a 92% certainty that a Global Recession has already started or will very soon. Should a Recession arrive, employment and business will certainly suffer. However, Rental Properties actually improve. Cash flow from conservative rentals should provide a consistent Income Stream for you and your family. As buyers are removed from the Buying Market, the Rental Market actually improves as the demand for housing remains, but the ownership changes. A prepared Investor can actually make purchases at discounted prices and quickly lease them as demand for housing should remain.

https://michaeldouville.com/books/embed/#?secret=g2bRsyIha4

Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk! Baby Boomers should look for cash flow from more conservative assets as the typical Stock Portfolio loss from a recession is 39.6%; at my age, an unacceptable loss. A vicious recession can put stock losses in the 60-90% range. Certainly a game Changer!  Rentals should be assessed for tenant quality rather than maximizing Rental Rates. Mortgages should be reviewed for refinancing to fixed rate encumbrances. Core properties especially should be debt free or extremely low LTV’s to provide Income and act as a Lifeboat in any Turmoil. Protect your capital, Protect your Credit, protect your FAMILY!

https://michaeldouville.com/

 

 

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Choose Kindness… Featuring Paul Beverly

Posted in Our Daily Bread with tags , , , , on October 28, 2018 by paulthepoke

Be kind to everyone. It’s so simple & healthy. It’s how you want to be treated, so give kindness freely. Do it because it’s the right thing to do. I want a happy & kind world for my children 😊

Please pray for those affected by the mass shooting tragedy in Pittsburgh, PA.

tree of life usa today

photo: USA Today

Matthew 7:12 So whatever you wish that others would do to you, do also to them, for this is the Law & the Prophets.

Have a week full of kindness my friends!!!

 

 

Jude: Love

Posted in Jude with tags , , , , , on October 28, 2018 by paulthepoke

Jude 1:2 May mercy, peace, and love be multiplied to you.

This is the second time the word αγαπαο/agapao or “love” is used by Jude. For what it’s worth, scholars argue whether the term is used three or four times by Jude.

This is αγαπαο/agapao. This is God’s “love” for us. Defined as love, affection, good will, benevolence, to welcome, to entertain, to be fond of, to love dearly. This love is the nature of God.

Get the flutter out of your stomach and the tingle out of your senses. This love is purposeful with selection. God chooses us despite our issues.

God is love. He is αγαπαο/agapao.

1 John 4:8 Anyone who does not love does not know God, because God is love.

1 John 4:16 And we have come to know and believe the love that God has for us. God is love; whoever abides in love abides in God, and God in him.

God demonstrated His αγαπαο/agapao for broken humanity by sending His Son.

John 3:16 For God so loved the world, that He gave His only Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have eternal life.

hand-1910143_960_720 pixabay

In response to God’s love, we are called to αγαπαο/agapao. We are called to love with all of our being and all that we have to offer; heart, soul, mind, and strength. In the verses below from Mark 12, the original language communicates this love is a future action. Jesus is telling us how and who to love.

Which begs the questions, do we put God first in our lives? Order matters to Jesus. He put God above others. Have we made personal sacrifices for God? Do we love God with intensity and passion? Do we sacrifice ourselves on behalf of others? Do we love our neighbors with the same gusto as we love ourselves?

Mark 12:29-31 Jesus answered, “The most important is, Hear, O Israel: The Lord our God, the Lord is one. And you shall love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength. The second is this: You shall love your neighbor as yourself. There is no other commandment greater than these.”

 

Jude places the focus on the concepts of mercy and peace and love. May these ideals be multiplied and lavished. May an abundance be heaped upon you, the believer in Jesus Christ.

 

The Age Stigma

Posted in Christine "Clarity" McDonald, Culture, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , on October 26, 2018 by paulthepoke

Psalm 116:5 Gracious is the LORD, and righteous; our God is merciful.

Psalm 86:15 But You, O Lord, are a compassionate and gracious God, slow to anger, abounding in loving devotion and truth.

Featuring Christine Clarity McDonald

Christine McDonald

Finally, let’s touch on the way age factors into people’s categorizations of “worthy versus unworthy victims.” They say the average prostituted person’s life span in the life of prostitution is seven years. If they make it the full seven years, they often end up dead from drug overdose, suicide, or murder. Only a small percent of these individuals will find a way out.

It is also said that the average age of entry into prostitution is around 13. Think about it. If a 13–year–old becomes a prostituted individual and survives seven years, they would only be 20 years old. We, as a society, see a youth in this awful life as a victim, but once they make it to 18, we expect them to somehow break the mental, emotional, and traumatic chains of prostitution and walk away. Once an individual crosses the invisible line of “adulthood,” we no longer view them as victims but as criminals. All compassion or awareness of the horrors they endure seems to disappear at that magical age of 18. Yet it is so much more complicated than that.

child abuse

As I see it, the longer they are in it, the more trauma they have endured and the deeper the hurt. Yet because they didn’t recover at age 15, we say “screw them” when they are 19, or 22, or 36, or older and trying to find a way out. That is not okay. Think about it: Does God place an age limit on His grace in our lives? No, He does not. However, this is not how the majority of our society sees it.

Why is that? Who are we, as a society, as people of faith, and as service providers to determine what age someone is recoverable to begin their healing process? If God sustained them three days, three years, or 33 years in a horrific life of commercial sexual exploitation, then perhaps we should embrace God’s love for them and reflect that love as His children to His children.

“Love your neighbor, all of ’em.” -Christine Clarity McDonald

Read more at…

Straight Talk, Glory Kitchen Menu Specials… Rodna Epley

Posted in Rodna Epley with tags , , , , , , on October 26, 2018 by paulthepoke

Rodna LightNow imagine for a minute if any of us in the church could only do the first part of what Jesus said in John 14:12 Truly, truly, I say to you, whoever believes in Me will also do the works that I do; and greater works than these will he do, because I am going to the Father.

Just think of anything Jesus ever did. And that’s what He said we would do. After grasping that, we could move onto better understanding the greater works which should sufficiently blow your imagination wide open if you consider the menu list of the former. While I could have made a separate menu for the greater works, for this example I simply added it as the last item on the menu. I wanted to focus on the easier stuff first, like raising the dead and walking on water.

Remember, items on this Menu are all things that you will be able to do. Doing is eating in the Father’s House at the Father’s table. Pick out your favorite choices so the servers in heaven can have them on the table for you when you sit. Doggie bags are available so you can take food home for others who have nothing prepared.

Nehemiah 8:10 Go your way, eat the fat, drink the sweet, and send portions to those for whom nothing is prepared; for this day is holy to our Lord. Do not sorrow, for the joy of the LORD is your strength.

Menu template

Glory Kitchen Menu Specials:

  1. Turn water to wine (John 2:1-11)
  2. Heal the sick / oppressed (Matthew 8:14-15, Mark 1:32-34)
  3. Cast out evil spirits (Mark 1:21-27, Luke 4:31-36)
  4. Catch fish miraculously when no fish are around (Matthew 5:1-11)
  5. Make the paralyzed walk (Matthew 9:1-8, Mark 2:1-2)
  6. Stretch out withered hands (Luke 6:6-11)
  7. Calm raging storms on the sea (Mark 4:35-41)
  8. Heal blood issues (Matthew 9:20-22)
  9. Raise the dead (Matthew 9:18,23-26)
  10. Make the blind see (Matthew 9:27-31)
  11. Make the deaf hear, the mute speak (Matthew 9:32-34, Mark 7:31-37)
  12. Feed way over 9,000 people with only a few fish and several loaves of bread (Matthew 15:29-39; John 6:1-15)
  13. Walk on water (John 6:16-21)
  14. Pull money out of a fish’s mouth to pay taxes (Matthew 17:24-27)
  15. Heal dropsy, leprosy, being crippled (Luke 13:10-17; 14:1-6; 17:11-19)
  16. Anything else you want! A blank check! The greater works! (Matthew 18:19; 21:22; Mark 11:24, John 14:13, 15:7, 15:16, 16:23-24; James 1:5, 1:17; 1 John 3:22, 5:14-15)

 

Disclaimer: All ingredients and spices used in all recipes are totally organic, non-allergenic, non-racist and all that stuff. They include: peace, joy, love, hope, faith, favor, willingness to yield, treating others above ourselves, humility, wisdom, revelation, knowledge of God (aka, knowledge of the glory), et al.

Where’s Cana? Water to Wine

Posted in Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on October 23, 2018 by paulthepoke

water-to-wineJohn 2:9-11 When the master of the feast tasted the water now become wine, and did not know where it came from (though the servants who had drawn the water knew), the master of the feast called the bridegroom and said to him, “Everyone serves the good wine first, and when people have drunk freely, then the poor wine. But you have kept the good wine until now.”

This, the first of his signs, Jesus did at Cana in Galilee, and manifested his glory. And his disciples believed in Him.

August 2018: Tradition has Jesus’ water to wine miracle at Kafr Kanna. The “Wedding Church” is located in this town in northern Israel. Archaeology may be providing a new location five miles north.

Tunnels have been located with references to “Kyrie Iesou” in the ancient Greek. Translated to English, this would be Lord Jesus.

This is the location of Khirbet Qana. This was a Jewish village from 323 BC to 324 AD.

Located in the tunnels were an altar, shelf and the remains of a stone vessel. There was space for five additional vessels.

John 2:6 Now there were six stone water jars there for the Jewish rites of purification, each holding twenty or thirty gallons.

For all the teetotalers out there, Jesus is throwing one hell of a party. Jesus subjected a wedding party to 120-180 gallons of wine. And He kept the good stuff (120-180 gallons) for the end of the party after the people have drunk freely. 

I conjecture this event is a foreshadowing to His wedding party when He marries His bride the church. You want to be invited to this party! Any one out there want to wag their finger and lecture Jesus?

Dr Tom McCollough who leads the dig had the following observations.

“We have uncovered a large Christian veneration cave complex that was used by Christian pilgrims who came to venerate the water-to-wine miracle. This complex was used beginning in the late fifth or early sixth century and continued to be used by pilgrims into the 12th-century Crusader period. The pilgrim texts we have from this period that describe what pilgrims did and saw when they came to Cana of Galilee match very closely what we have exposed as the veneration complex.”

Dr. McCollough also pointed to the Jewish Historian Flavius Josephus.

khirbet qana daily mail

Image: Daily Mail

“His references to Cana align geographically with the location of Khirbet Qana and align logically with his movements. The reference to Cana in Josephus, the New Testament and in the rabbinic texts would argue the village was a Jewish village, near the Sea of Galilee and in the region of lower Galilee. Khirbet Qana fulfills all of these criteria.”

As for today’s tourist trips to  Kafr Kanna, McCollough had the following observations.

“When tourists visiting Israel today are taken to Cana, they are taken to Kafr Kanna. However, this site was not recognized as a pilgrimage site for those seeking Cana until the 1700s. At this point the Franciscans were managing Christian pilgrimage and facilitating easy passage rather than historical accuracy.”

“I would argue our excavations warrant at least a reconsideration of the historical value of John’s references to Cana and Jesus.”

For more in depth research, pictures of the site, artifacts, see the link below provided.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6114063/Experts-Israel-uncover-tunnels-say-spot-Jesus-turned-water-wine.html

 

 

 

 

 

Time to Assess Vulnerabilities, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 22, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

ice berg douville

https://michaeldouville.com

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action!


Everyone is always amazed at how quickly the Stock Market can drop! The Stock Market declined 1300 points in 7 days! Oct 3, the Dow recorded a nominal new high; in a video, I suggested that would be an outstanding time to take profits. The adage “you cannot go broke taking a profit” certainly applies. More than profits, take at least half out of Harm’s Way and reduce Risk and Exposure. Back in February, when the Stock Market dropped 3000 points in just a few weeks and then stabilized, many analysis suggested the Market would recover to record a new high.

Indeed, there was a gap on the S&P near 2830 which further suggested a return to the old highs.

The market did recover and did make a nominal new high; perhaps a “Double Top? Only for a day! After 1300 points, the question now is will the Stock Market recover and again make another nominal new high or is the Top for this Cycle already achieved? The answer should not matter; as a baby Boomer, can we really take the chance? Can we assume the Risk?

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action! An assessment of Vulnerabilities should be conducted with your Financial Professional for your protection. By all measures, the current Stock Market has provided the participants with excellent returns; however, many metrics point to a vulnerable market. Although the current market may go considerably higher, there comes a time when Prudence demands thought; how much downside can be tolerated? There is Historic Margin debt financing the portfolios; leverage accentuates gains and creates tremendous profits in a Rising Market.

A Declining Market creates “Air Pocket” plunges as margin Calls produce stock liquidations usually at precarious moments accelerating the downside. At 65, 69, or 72 years of age and beyond, there is no time to recover losses. There is no “Long Run” left! Should a portfolio experience a 39.6% decline which represents the losses incurred in a typical cycle completion, how would your Life be affected? The market may be Vulnerable, are YOU?

There are times to be Aggressive; now is not one of them. Consider reducing exposure to Risk and increasing the Cash Flow component of your Wealth Portfolio.  Risk cannot be totally eliminated, but can be drastically reduced.  The recognition of change is a great advantage; there will be another Bull Market, it will just change asset classes. Consider accumulating very conservative rental properties in the entry level price range. Typically, there are very good opportunities close to everyone’s home. There are several strong growth markets across America that may provide conservative, consistent, cash flow for many years that may prove to be a “Lifeboat” for your Family and your Future.

https://michaeldouville.com

 

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch & Bible Study

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