Archive for the Michael Douville Category

Warning: China Economic Data

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on July 18, 2018 by paulthepoke

Isaiah 49:12 Look, they come from far away! Look, some come from the north and west, and others from the land of Sinim!

Genesis 10:16-18 the Jebusites, Amorites, Girgashites, Hivites, Arkites, Sinites, Arvadites, Zemarites, and Hamathites. Eventually the families of the Canaanites were scattered.

The following is from the Genesis Record, Henry Morris.

The Biblical mention of a people in the Far East named “Sinim” (Isaiah 49:12), together with references in ancient secular histories to people in the Far East called “Sinae,” at least suggests the possibility that some of Sin’s descendants migrated eastward, while others went south into the land of Canaan. It is significant that the Chinese people have always been identified by the prefix “Sino-” (e.g., Sino-Japanese War; Sinology, the study of Chinese history). The name “Sin” is frequently encountered in Chinese names in the form “Siang” or its equivalent.

The evidence is tenuous but, of all the names in the Table of Nations, it does seem that two sons of Canaan, Heth (Hittites = Khittae = Cathay) and Sin (Sinites = Sinim = China), are the most likely to have become ancestors of the Oriental peoples. Since it seems reasonable that divine inspiration would include in such a table information concerning the ancestry of all the major streams of human development, it is reasonable to conclude that the Mongoloid peoples (and therefore also the American Indians) have come mostly from the Hamitic line.

 

Another warning that the Economy may not be as strong as we think. Data on China, as well as Europe is not good.

 

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

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The Rising US Dollar, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on July 7, 2018 by paulthepoke

1 Samuel 2:7 The LORD makes poor and rich; He brings low, He also exalts.

Proverbs 3:13-16 How blessed is the man who finds wisdom and the man who gains understanding. For her profit is better than the profit of silver and her gain better than fine gold. She is more precious than jewels; and nothing you desire compares with her. Long life is in her right hand; in her left hand are riches and honor.

Michael

The US enjoys the Global Reserve Currency status. Virtually all of the major business transactions throughout the world are priced in Dollars. Sovereign Wealth Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Funds, Corporate funds need to “Park” billions and billions of transactional cash! The ONLY currency liquid and vast enough is the US Dollar! Not Lire, Not Yuan, Not Euro, not the Yen, only the US Dollar. It is stable, safe, liquid and accepted around the World. International pricing expresses the transactional cost in US Dollars of oil, copper, grain, lead, tallow, butter, milk,  beef, etc. along with virtually all International agreements. The dollar does fluctuate, but pegging to the US Dollar standardizes Global transactions.

A weak US Dollar is good for the Global Economic community. The US Dollar was 102.21  October 1, 2016, just prior to the Presidential Elections. The World experienced “A cyclic upturn in a structural downturn” exactly as ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) forecasted.  The Dollar then declined to 88.25 in February 2018; which may have been a cyclic bottom.  A weaker dollar is good for Emerging Market Economies. Raw Material sales translate into more local currency which then can buy more local and regional  goods and services. Local inflation is reduced.  During the past decade, Sovereigns around the World have gorged on cheap loans priced well below 1%, some even negative. With a declining US Dollar, not only are the loans Historically cheap, a 20% decline in currency exchange equates to repaying only $80 million of the $100 million borrowed plus receiving a higher price for exports usually oil, copper, aluminum, etc.

money
photo: MarketWatch

Like all things, the US Dollar cycles. It does not remain cheap forever. Timing becomes important. The US Dollar has risen and risen very fast from a possible low of 88 just a few months ago to a recent high of 96. This cycle of peaks and valleys is not a new phenomena; this cycle repeats historically. What is new is the record DEBT pervasive throughout the World. Debtors have enjoyed the discount of a declining US Dollar; that is now gone. Interest rates at or near zero are gone in the US and scheduled to be gone soon everywhere else. Obscene amounts of DEBT have propelled the good fortunes of virtually everyone from Credit Cards and HELOCs for citizens to massive Public and Sovereign debt in EVERY Village, Hamlet, Town, City, Municipality, County, State and Nation on the face of the PLANET!!

 

A strong Dollar will reduce the value of exports thereby slowing the economy in exporting Nations. A negative spiral’s outcome is a slowing of all global economies. This then results  in declining demand that ripples throughout the World. That is bad enough; add in rapidly rising rates and there lies a recipe for Catastrophe! The obscene debt is rarely paid off, rarely even reduced. The debt is rolled over or refinanced. A rise to only 2% equates to multiples of 10 to 20 times the debt service. There is going to be  a very rude awakening very soon!

Debt will default and these defaults will accelerate throughout the world pressuring rates even higher as nonpayment risk pressures returns. Bonds and Bond Funds will be at HUGE RISK. All manners of Debt will be affected. Rates will rise and rise quicker than anyone anticipates. Get out of Debt! Payoff Credit Cards, Helocs, anything that floats with an Index. Refinance into fixed rate LONG TERM debt.  Raise cash!  The dollar cycle peak is forecast to reach 103.8 as a typical permutation in a typical cycle.  This may not be TYPICAL! Turmoil could drive the US Dollar to 120 causing massive disruptions!  For those aware, for those prepared, Generational Wealth can be achieved when the cycle again turns down……

https://michaeldouville.com

 

Dollar Rising, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on June 21, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 20:10 Unequal weights and unequal measures are both alike an abomination to the LORD.

Micah 6:10-11 Can I forget any longer the treasures of wickedness in the house of the wicked, and the scant measure that is accursed? Shall I acquit the man with wicked scales and with a bag of deceitful weights?

Michael

All currencies are not created equal. Values of currencies change. God is not a fan of currency manipulation. Imagine that, humanity outside of God’s economic laws…

The end result of currency changes can be dramatic. Michael explains the consequences of a rising dollar and what it means to global economics.

Understand the times we are in. Currently, soft commodities (grains such as barley and wheat) are relatively cheap. These times will not last forever. Make plans now while goods are inexpensive. Understand where we are going. Have a plan.

The dollar is rising causing Systemically Important Financial (SIFI) to Plummet.

 

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

It’s All A Big Party Until You Hit The Iceberg! Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on June 12, 2018 by paulthepoke

MichaelEverything seems great in the Stock Market but is there underlying instability. Michael talks about the state of the economy. Don’t miss this!

https://michaeldouville.com/blog/

Take provision for yourself as well as others. God speaking to Noah…

Genesis 6:21 Also take with you every sort of food that is eaten, and store it up. It shall serve as food for you and for them.

Good times do not last forever! Have a plan and prepare for a rainy day!

michael@michaeldouville.com

Listen to Michael’s comments in the video link below.

 

 

Deutsche Bank In Trouble… Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , on June 4, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Michael Douville talks about the financial trouble at Deutsche Bank. A failure at Deutsche Bank can impact economies worldwide.

 

I have been Blessed! Many of my colleagues and long time friends have not! I am continually exposed to those that for one reason or another did not plan or expect to get OLD! Unfortunately, when we really get honest, this predicament includes almost everyone! The same strategy that I used to find Financial Freedom for myself still works and I have accepted the Mission to change as many lives as I can. I am here and my Team is here to help!

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

The Next Recession will be EPIC! Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 24, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3

1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

2b a time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted;
3b a time to break down, and a time to build up;
5a a time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together;
6 a time to seek, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 a time to tear, and a time to sew…

MichaelSomething has changed! A Global down turn is underway; it can be seen in the Industrial statistics, the”Yield Curve” Spreads, the Baltic Dry Index. The slowdown can be seen in declining  Home Mortgage Applications and increasingly higher Auto loan delinquencies;  much, much higher credit card debt with slower repayments. Not surprisingly, the Spring Real Estate market in many regions of the US are exhibiting slowing sales when Property sales should be seasonally expanding. These are all signs of an aging Business Cycle.

This happens in Free Markets; it happened in 2010, 2012, and a longer decline in 2015. Each decline was met with Global Central Bank interference in the form of massive Liquidity injections via purchases in the Equity Markets and massive purchases of all forms of Bonds and Debt Instruments. Maybe a not so “Free market”.

Something has changed! Instead of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), rates are rising! Instead of Massive Global Central Bank purchasing in a declining market, the Federal Reserve is actually selling! In April of 2017, the Central Banks were purchasing at the rate on $1.7 Trillion Dollars; tapering in April 2018 to an alleged big fat ZERO! The ECB is still caught supporting the European Markets as is the Bank of Japan for the Japanese Markets. The simple reason is that no else is willing to enter theses markets; no one entering at the current reduced and manipulated rates!

Something has Changed! Without the Financial Credit Pulse of coordinated Global Central Banks, Volatility and RISK have reappeared. The support has been removed and The Federal Reserve has announced not only are they NOT purchasing, but they are selling; $8 Billion Feb 5, 2018 alone. It is time to Pay Attention!!!

Recession-ahead

Your Wealth is at Risk! Americans 55 years and older  have a 70% of their Nest Egg in the Stock Market and 20% in the Bond Market; rising rates devastate Bond Funds! Those approaching retirement age are not “in it for the long Haul!” There is not enough time to recoup losses before the funds are needed.  There are times to be Aggressive and times to be Conservative; the Fed has transparently announced their intentions. This may be a time to be very conservative. In fact, one does not need to be fully invested 100% of the time. Without support, the Markets are free to act the way Markets are suppose to act. The next downturn could be EPIC!

Something has changed! Your Future is at stake! Now might be a very appropriate time to review your goals and concerns with your Financial Professional. Maybe an “Exit Strategy” should be developed with a goal to transfer into different asset classes.

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Time to Raise Cash…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Leviticus 19:35-36 You shall do no wrong in judgment, in measurement of weight, or capacity. You shall have just balances, just weights, a just ephah, and a just hin; I am the LORD your God, who brought you out from the land of Egypt.

Proverbs 11:1 A false balance is an abomination to the LORD, but a just weight is his delight.

Currency manipulation is global issue. The above verses are two of many examples provided in Scripture. All currencies are not balanced the same. Imagine that, the world’s economy is out of balance in regards to the standard of the Bible. All currencies are not created equal. There are global economic consequences when standards are out of balance and there is reconfiguration. God is not a big fan.

 

Michael

Many Researchers have been forecasting a rising US Dollar. This seems like an impossibility, but technical methodology from several different disciplines are coming to the same conclusion. A top researcher in March placed a 103.8 target from 88.1; currently, the dollar has risen to 92.46. Should the target be exceeded, a Spike could develop going much higher. The Dollar rose .7% on May 1, 2018 alone.  A strong dollar will pressure the repayments of debt across the Globe in an environment of struggling Municipalities, States, and Sovereign debtors. A stronger dollar will not only change the repayments dynamics, but the exports in Emerging Market Countries are affected as Commodities expressed in US Dollars lose value.

A stronger Dollar is enhanced not only by the perception that the US Economy will be stronger than any other, but also by the Interest Rate differential across the Globe and the avowed Federal Reserve policy of raising short term rates. Higher rates from both the Federal Reserve and the LIBOR affect 40-60% of all Global Debt; currently exceeding the 2008 Debt Record and now over $217 Trillion Dollars. Charles Nenner called the 10 year Treasury low at 1.6% in July of 2016. The trend line from 1981 has been broken at the 2.65% level and has now exceeded 3%; better than an 85% increase. With the trend line broken, rates could rise swiftly and approach 4.5% faster than thought possible. Normalization is occurring as Central Bank intervention recedes. Normal could easily be 5-6%; a double from here.

Prices in asset classes will be affected. Housing prices will be compressed as rates rise; Home buyers buy based on payments. Higher rates equal lower affordability; some Luxury Markets are already affected!  Equity prices will be affected as repatriated funds are reduced inversely with a stronger dollar. The US Dollar has depreciated 24% since the Presidential election. Take for example a US manufactured auto sold for 20,000 Euros in Germany in December 2016; the same car sold for 20,000 Euros in December 2017 netted the US Manufacturer 20+% more profit due to the Dollar decline; great news for Stock Prices. Bad news when the US Dollar rises; the same formula works negatively in reverse. Look for earnings to decline; stocks are correlated to earnings. Need I mention Bonds? Higher rates will decimate Bond values as well as higher rates will cause many more defaults across the Globe, again affecting the value of Fixed Income. Commodities will also be negatively affected by a spiking US Dollar as it will take fewer Dollars to purchase in local Currency as well as higher rates will certainly curb demand.

What to do? Everything cycles! Raise cash to purchase assets at lower US pricing. Research is indicating it will probably be a Spike; vicious, but not exceedingly long term. This will present HUGE opportunities for those prepared. Every Investor has personal goals. Review your portfolio and make the proper adjustments.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com

https://paulthepoke.com/category/michael-douville/

 

 

 

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