Archive for the Michael Douville Category

No Recession Narrative is full of Baloney! Who do you believe? Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 9, 2023 by paulthepoke

John 18:38 Pilate says to Him, “What is truth?” And having said this, he went out again to the Jews and says to them, “I find no guilt in Him.

Who is most concerned about YOU? Do you trust the Federal Government to take care of YOU?

What you decide and what you start to realize, is going to make a huge impact on the way you survive in the Economy in the next 18-24 months.

Now, the Government and Wall Street would like you to believe we are heading toward a soft landing; that continues to be the narrative. Now, there are lots of advantages for Wall Street and the Administration. The Administration does not want to be blamed for a bad economy and bringing a Recession to our doorsteps.

What you decide is going to make a huge difference for YOU!

There has been a soft landing ONE time in history. That was in the 1990’s.

We are currently experiencing historic interest rate hikes. Pay off your credit card debt immediately. Raise cash if you can.

Wall Street gets paid on your money, assets under management (AUM).

Michael Douville sees a hard landing coming. Bankruptcies are increasing. Stores are closing around the country. Shipping box production is declining rapidly. Manufacturing jobs are in contraction.

Interest on government debt is heading towards $1,000,000,000,000 (trillion) per year.

The definition is the problem; what constitutes “Unemployed”? There are about 35.5 million working aged people who are not in the workforce. They are not counted in the 3.5% unemployment figures. What are these people doing? They are not working, and not disabled, not stay at home parents; what are they doing? If they would like to work, yet cannot find a job, then the unemployment rate is waaaay more than 3.5%. Further, how can there be a robust economy with that number of people idle.

Jobs Report: 585,000 full time jobs lost: 972,000 part-time added, and 118,000 new multi-job workers.

Liquidity (cash) is coming out of the market at a record pace. It looks like a Recession coming to me.

Germany is already officially in a Recession.

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Paul Volcker absolutely destroyed my Real Estate portfolio. He destroyed my Real Estate practice and I lost absolutely everything. I was a very young man; a product of the 1980 to 1982 double recession. When Paul Volcker stepped on the Gas and raised interest rates and literally destroyed my Business, my Real Estate practice, my holdings. I lost everything. Paul Volcker raised interest rates to the point where everybody stopped.

In Chicago, there were 60,000 Journeymen Electricians out of work, steel mills closed, Bethlehem Steel and Republic Steel, closed. Auto plants closed, retail was affected, construction was affected. It was awful. I lost virtually everything I owned…

Current Chairman Jerome Powell’s hero is Paul Volcker.

I know what can happen.

DISCLAIMERS: Any information or advice available on this channel is intended for educational and general guidance only. Michael Douville shall not be liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of access to or use of any of the content available on this channel.

Consult a financial advisor or other wealth management professional before you make investments of any kind. Do your homework!

Although Michael Douville and his affiliates take all reasonable care to ensure that the contents of this channel are accurate and up to date, all information contained on it is provided ‘as is.’

Michael Douville makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained on this channel.

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All comments will be reviewed by Michael Douville and staff and may be deleted if deemed inappropriate. Comments which are off-topic, offensive or promotional will not be posted. The comments/posts are from members of the public and do not necessarily reflect the views of Michael Douville and his affiliates.

https://michaeldouville.com/

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Unemployment & Brace For Impact, Recession! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Culture, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 8, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 6:6-11 Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest. How long will you lie there, O sluggard? When will you arise from your sleep? A little sleep, a little slumber, a little folding of the hands to rest, and poverty will come upon you like a robber, and want like an armed man.

What is the REAL Unemployment 3.7% or closer to 25%?

I am confused. The official Unemployment Rate is 3.7%. That means that 96.3% are working! The Economy should be robust! Yet, we see problems in the Economy, there is talk of heading into a Recession. However, Official Unemployment is only 3.7%; low unemployment is associated with a very good economy.

The population is 335M, 167M working leaves 168M unaccounted for. The 99.8M are working age, not in the workforce. There are still 68 million for under 18 and over 65. The calculations are by no means implied to be deadly accurate; more scratch pad math to account for what appears to be a huge discrepancy.

It would be very interesting for a study to determine how many jobs are full time and how many are working multiple jobs that may be counted more than once. I suspect that working even 1 hour a month might qualify as employed. The true situation may be worse.

The Federal Reserve Electronic Data System has so much information. A much better study would be very eye-opening! It would be very interesting to determine how many jobs are full-time and how many people are working multiple jobs that might be counted more than once!

Manufacturing has also declined for over 2 years and is now negative, negative 4.24% and yet we have only 3.7% unemployment. How is that even possible. With 3.7% unemployment, we should be in a robust economy, but we are not!

Bankruptcies are going up to levels last associated with the 2020 COVID Recession and the GFC Recession.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

Brace for Impact! Hard Landing says Federal Reserve!

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Brace for Impact! Looks like we are going to have a Hard Landing. Even the Federal Reserve’s own Economists are out with a report.

Those companies that are over-leveraged, firms in distress are likely to have an effect on Investment, Employment, and aggregate activity. Those firms that have been surviving on borrowed money have had their cost of Capital in the way of higher interest rates doubled, maybe tripled. This is going to put a lot of them out of business.

Are we following in the steps of Paul Volcker in the 1970’s? Jerome Powell thinks Volcker is a hero!

A Recipe for a hard Landing is Historic Tightening, the lag effects are 9-15 months, and we are just feeling them now.

We have Sticky Inflation. A good recession will kill inflation.

We have Banks in trouble, and they are tightening underwriting. Banks are losing reserves, losing deposits. Money supply is decreasing.

Manufacturing has entered a level of recession at 46.2. There is a severe drop in the need for goods.

The 10/2 year yield curve is inverted around 100 basis points or 1%.

Pending home sales are dropping. Prices will eventually decline.

Be aware of distressed metropolitans across the United States. Recovery may take up to five years. Crime is a result of the vacuum left by diminished occupancy of central cities and bad governance. As the Economy worsens, expect increased crime and social unrest. We can also add expect increased taxes as municipalities lose vital revenue.

Consumer credit card debt is exploding.

Michael’s comments on the hotel, Airbnb crisis:

In these cycle completions, all of the excesses are removed. Over-leveraged, over-optimistic, and under-capitalized Speculators usually realize losses. The larger the excess, the larger the losses. I am assuming the short-term rental owners will have a reality check soon, No one knows for sure, but the number floating around here in Scottsdale is 4200 units. The demand for them has fallen significantly, but the cost of ownership remains. When the Hotels start to reduce rates, the end is near for the novice. Not only is the market going against them, but many municipalities are stepping in with regulations. Neighbors hate the party house next door!

Economic Turmoil is Coming! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on June 8, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

You will experience this only three times in your lifetime.

A recession is coming and has likely started. The “everything bubble” is beginning to pop. Third quarter is looking like it could be rough. Get ready, it is coming quickly.

What can you do to capitalize? Talk with your financial adviser.

Cash will be king! Liquidity is coming out of the system.

Housing sales are dropping! You will have the opportunity to buy homes at discounts not available since the Great Financial Crisis where we were buying homes below cost. It will be scary, you will not want to invest, but I will tell you when the time is right and Generational Wealth will be available.

I need your help to reach 1000 subscribers. if you like the content, please give a thumbs up and subscribe.

In the meantime, the direction of the Real Estate market is Down, similar to 2006. A Recession is imminent, possible a severe recession. Will a waterfall event happen?

Commercial Real Estate looks like it is going to take a beating. Office space is empty in major metropolitans.

Those who have investments in the Endangered Cities might consider speaking to their brokers; should you decide to keep your properties, the hold will be probably at least 5 years. You will do better in Florida, Texas, or Arizona, particularly here in Phoenix.

Prices in commodities are coming down.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

50% Potential Loss to the Great Triumvirate: Stocks, Bonds, and Real Estate

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 30, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Proverbs 22:16 Whoever oppresses the poor to increase his own wealth, or gives to the rich, will only come to poverty.

Michael Douville took the time to talk with President of Pento Portfolio Strategies, Michael Pento.

For those who are interested in a deep discussion about bonds, debt, and lending. How will this affect real estate, bonds, and stocks? Click on the YouTube video link below.

Michael Pento lays out the Risk in the Equity Market, the Bond Market, and the Real Estate Market: The “Great Triumvirate”.

Pento and Douville see trouble coming in the real estate market. Is the bubble popping?

Commercial real estate properties are increasing with vacancies in major cities across the United States.

The Federal Reserve is shrinking the money supply. Liquidity is drying up globally.

Michael Pento discusses the explosion of Debt and its relationship to the Gross Domestic Product, GDP. Debt is 263% of GDP!

Investors might limit their exposure to “High Beta” Stocks. Avoid technology stocks.

Pento likes short term government treasuries (3 years of less), gold, and utilities.

Interest rates have never been raised this quickly and this high. The yield curve is inverted.

How will the banking industry be affected? Personal Bank Accounts should be kept to under the FDIC approved $250,000 limit. A few months of Cash liquidity kept at home would be prudent.

Michael Pento outlines the Financial Risk coming. Pento sees a deep recession coming. The conversation flows swiftly with great and valuable content.

Michael Pento, President and Founder Pento Portfolio Strategies

www.pentoport.com

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Check out Michael Douville’s latest take on the real estate market and the economy.

Fortunes will be LOST! Fortunes will be MADE. Timing is Everything. Our timing model is showing that the Real Estate Market will be showing evidence of the slowdown by the end of the 2nd quarter or maybe early 3rd Quarter of 2023.

Prices could decline in Out-Migration States by much more than Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Could prices decline over 30%? My Timing Model forecasts that possibility.

Pending home sales are slowing and Builders are selling like crazy as they attempt to liquidate their properties. They are scared to death and will make deals.

By buying rates down and making concessions, builders are going to have trouble with their lenders.

The Real Estate market has probably peaked and the 2nd and final Peak is forming now!

A recession is coming with a likely hard landing. The recession has likely started.

Michael discusses cities at risk across America due to crime, poor management and leadership. Large, corporate businesses are leaving major metropolitans. Tax bases and revenues are decreasing in these cities.

Pensions are losing their value in Europe due to negative interest rate bonds.

Website: https://michaeldouville.com/

Credit Event Coming??? Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 25, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

Are we entering another Credit Event? I remember Lehman Brothers and Bear Stears. These events start slow and gather speed until things start to cascade.

Germany’s Deutsche Bank is in the news. Credit Default Swaps (insurance) are soaring! Tier 1 Bonds are crashing. Did Deutsche Bank receive $60 billion in Federal Reserve Foreign Repo Agreements?

European banks hold bonds yielding less than 0%. They are losing money big time as interest rates go up.

Global liquidity and money are in short supply. Liquidity is the fuel of the economy. Bank deposits are decreasing. Things are getting more difficult to get a loan.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is focused on lowering inflation. He says interest rates are not coming down any time soon.

Michael Douville recommends reading an article, Too Small To Not Fail, A Short History of the World by Danielle DiMartino Booth. For those not familiar, Danielle is a former Federal Reserve Insider. She is the CEO & Chief Strategist, Quill Intelligence LLC, and Economist.

Instead of mass mobilizing against Powell as if he was the reincarnation of King Louis XVI, why not grow up? In the absence of a solution without consequences, he’s made an attempt to steer the economy into the first recession from which it has the slightest chance of exiting without the dead weight of zombie companies, without the corrupt practice of anointing Wall Street’s kingpins the de facto makers of monetary policy. A wise man once said, “There is no such thing as a free lunch.”

Damn right there’s not. Perhaps we accept the truth in this wisdom and, in doing so, the consequences of our actions. -Danielle DiMartino Booth

https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/p/too-small-to-not-fail-history

Check out Michael’s analysis, economic news, charts, and commentary below on the YouTube video. Click on the red play button.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

Michael Douville With… Charles Nenner: The Whole System is Shaky! Will the Fed Raise rates?

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 21, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Michael Douville and Charles Nenner discuss the latest in economic and market news. What’s coming next. Dr. Nenner is one of the world’s best when it comes to economic cycles.

What an amazing interview.

Charles Nenner believes the current Banking Crisis will resolve itself for a short time only. The Banking Index will rise for a “Bounce” only. Charles believes the Whole System is ready to go under.

We need to make plans.

One of the 3 strategies would be trading. This is not a “Buy and Hold” environment.

Charles also believes Inflation will start up again after May.

We are in for a “terrible” time. Charles’ War Cycle and Civil Disruption are turning up.

It is time to be cautious. Build cash reserves. Hold some cash at home, and when buying physical gold, take possession.

Click on the link below for the interview and video. You can’t afford not to listen…

Learn how Charles Nenner’s unique research can help you get better experience for your future investments: https://www.charlesnenner.com/ 

Sign up for a FREE 30-day trial today!

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

Boom to Bust in 2024… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on March 7, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

I think we have a major recession coming. I have been talking about this for a long time. These recessions do not start tomorrow, there are signposts along the way. The signs have not changed the Recession is coming, it’s coming, it’s coming.

We have talked about this since March of 2022. You have had plenty of time to get your house in order: Build cash reserves, get out of debt.

It takes 8-15 months for the rate increases to be felt; it’s called the Lag Effect. I think we have an Economic Bust coming.

We have had a Boom. In 2020, the Pandemic came along and scared everyone. The economy went in the tank.

The policy response was to pump $ trillions into the Economy; $10 Trillion just here in the US. Central Banks around the world added another $10 Trillion which caused the Inflation Monster.

Liquidity is drying up. Quantitative tightening is happening. Countries around the world are struggling to pay their bills. This is not a third world problem. Even Switzerland is running out of cash. How long before bubbles start to pop?

Appreciation of Home Prices Nationally are slowing and will soon be negative. States like California, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey will suffer more due to the difference in Population Migration. San Francisco has already lost 35% in value. This will be a national issue. Florida, Texas, and Arizona offer the best investment returns.

Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.

https://michaeldouville.com/

The Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on February 11, 2023 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him.

In the Business World, Love does not make the World go round, it is LIQUIDITY that makes the world go round. Without liquidity, the Business World slows. The quicker it is withdrawn, the quicker we head into Recession.

Between March 2020 and March 2022, the Treasury and The Federal Reserve added $10 Trillion. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think Inflation may appear? Well now the “Powers to be” are removing Liquidity at a startling rate.

Places like Sri Lanka, and Lebanon are encountering civil disruption because food and fuel cannot be purchased. Even the Swiss National Bank has received a cash infusion from the FED.

The Inverted Yield is rivaling Paul Volcker’s era and the Fed is not through yet. The cost of Capital has doubled or tripled.

I believe the Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession.

Caution is advised.

Take Heed! Charles Nenner, Paul Lehr, and Michael Douville discuss the Markets and End Times!

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on December 28, 2022 by paulthepoke

The conversation was 2 hours long: amazing, candid, tying Old Testament and New Testament Biblical Prophecy to the current Geopolitical and Economic problems of today. This is the economic portion… LOL!!! Only 20 minutes.

If there is enough interest, I will publish the remainder.

Charles Nenner has been Head of Proprietary Trading at Goldman Sachs. Dr. Nenner was an Advisor to President George Bush. He is often a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg. In this video, Nenner discusses his Cycle Research with Paul Lehr.

Paul Lehr is a Biblical Scholar. He is author of a series of books including the Rapture, The Bride Redeemed. Paul is a contributor to GodInANutshell Productions. Paul Lehr is the Host, Editor and Publisher of www.PaulthePoke.com.

Photo: Wikipedia

Charts for a possible, sudden stock crash are shown in an overlay of the current S&P Index and the 1929 Crash. Charts are tracing out the same pattern. Is a Crash Imminent? Maybe, the economics are deteriorating.

How do the Economic and Geopolitics of Dr. Nenner’s work align with Biblical Prophecy?

https://michaeldouville.com/

This was an amazing and candid 2-hour discussion that does not lend itself well to editing for YouTube. If there is additional interest, please leave a comment.

For a free 30-day Research Newsletter from Charles Nenner: www.charlesnenner.com.

For books authored by Paul Lehr… https://www.amazon.com/Paul-Lehr/e/B09W8FB77N

Market Overview with Michael Douville & Dr. Charles Nenner, December 2022

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 13, 2022 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear, and will increase learning; and a man of understanding shall attain unto wise counsels…

Charles Nenner and Michael Douville discuss the results of Nenner Research.

Bitcoin is discussed and how regular the cycles are clearly delineating the top and bottom creating excellent trading opportunities. Charles’ forecasts are reviewed as well as over 200% in Crypto gains versus an asset loss of 82%.

Bonds are indicating lower rates for a a short time which gives an opportunity to sell property, or refinance.

Charles also is predicting a very difficult economy with social upheaval and geo-political problems.

Time got away from us! This is a little longer than usual, but full of very good and timely information.

Click on the audio/video link below for mathematical analysis, data, and commentary. This video is loaded with content and economic information. Now would be a good time to listen!

Watch the latest interview of Charles Nenner with Michael Douville where they discuss:

1️⃣S&P

2️⃣Problems in the economy

3️⃣Recession, Inflation & Bear Market

4️⃣Gold & Silver

5️⃣Commodity index going down

6️⃣Bonds, Fed Funds & 10-year Treasury

7️⃣Bitcoin & Crypto Currencies

8️⃣Lumber, Lennar & Copper

9️⃣Crude oil is down until the end of the month

🔟Dollar cycle, War Cycle & Social unrest.

📌Learn how Charles Nenner’s unique research can help you get better experience for your future investments: https://www.charlesnenner.com/ 🚀Sign up for a FREE 30-day trial today!

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

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