Revelation 1:7 Behold, He is coming with the clouds, and every eye will see Him, even those who pierced Him, and all tribes of the earth will wail on account of Him. Even so. Amen.
The latest on Russia and Ukraine… Russia says they are withdrawing military equipment. Well yes and no… Actions speak louder than words.
Ezekiel 38 discusses how Gog of Magog will plunder livestock and cattle from Israel. Israel’s dairy production is in the news. Israel is home to the most productive dairy cattle in the world.
Ezekiel 38:12b-13 …who have acquired livestock and possessions and who live at the center of the land. Sheba and Dedan and the merchants of Tarshish with all its villages will ask, ‘Have you come to capture the plunder? Have you assembled your hordes to carry away loot, to make off with silver and gold, to take cattle and goods, to seize great spoil?’
Antichrist and Beast Watch… Another global leader is tying behavior to economic participation. Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada invokes the Emergencies Act. Bank assets are being frozen. Major banks in Canada were offline. Banks were given broad and sweeping powers to freeze the accounts of others.
1 John 2:18 Children, it is the last hour; and just as you have heard that the antichrist is coming, so now many antichrists have appeared. This is how we know it is the last hour.
All of this and more on Today in Prophecy… Click on the link below…
After the completion of the planned exercises at training grounds in Crimea, an echelon with military equipment of the units of Russia’s Southern Military District returns to home bases. pic.twitter.com/uJydxfTLbX
This is about following the money. This is about stopping the financing of these illegal blockades. We are today serving notice: if your truck is being used in these protests, your corporate accounts will be frozen. pic.twitter.com/AJ73zdDMy5
Remember: It is what they (Russia) do, not what they say.
THIS is Russian diplomacy at its most essential. They are moving troops forward while emphasizing that some are packing up to go home. This is against the backdrop of “heightened” tensions with the separatists. These tensions are ongoing. From what I can tell, the Donbas exchanges of fire are not particularly bad as compared to a couple of weeks ago. It is a mess, and will likely remain so the balance of the week while the allies and the world are meeting in Munich for the security summit. The Russians are sitting out their participation in that conference.
photo: Moscow Times
I am amazed at the Russian media buy-in on the exchange of fires that are going on in the Donbas regions (Luhansk & Donestsk). Exchange of fires happen frequently and the elevated tenor of them is over a month old.
As mortar exchanges happen and possible tank/artillery shelling, the Ukrainian separatists are working overtime to stoke further tension.
From social media: Russian/separatist tv channels are trying to pass off dead children from an explosion in Damascus from 2012 as being from the Donbas region. Reverse image search is quick and easy.
Further to my previous, the enclosed article summarizes the Russian/Ukrainian news cycle for the past 12-18 hours, from the western vantage point. It is solid writing and informative. It is a rallying cry for some of the allies going into the Munich Security Conference this week.
It is also dignifying one of the effects the Moscow seeks for its own purposes during that conference: to create an atmosphere of concern that can be spotlighted by the Russians and media (they consider friendly) to throw the allies into a negative light.
In other words, Russia seeks to create the image of a bellicose NATO. This Reuters article serves that end, if unintended.
As I’ve discussed here, the Russian diplomatic approach is frequently a case good cop/ bad cop. Capitalizing on the media enhanced war drumbeating shows the Russian deftness at this multi-faceted and often contradictory approach to diplomacy in it’s public messaging. Through media lackeys they have hiked tensions in/through the Donbas (separatist regions of Ukraine) while planting stories of withdrawal from the Ukrainian frontier. Their approach appears to be in contrast to what you see here. But they harness stories such as this for domestic use and the intimidation of Ukraine.
These dual-track, contradictory signals are transmitted while western press largely confines itself to reporting the movement of troops out of assembly areas to offensive positions closer to the Ukrainian border. Western media addresses the Russian narrative-contradiction, but as an aside. Instead of calling the double-game for what it is, the western media stereotypically dwells on the forces arrayed and whispers “Hosanna” at the leaks they get out of the US executive branch.
These confusing signals keep Moscow in command of the high ground of decision making, leaving all of Putin’s options in play. They are playing to a number of audiences while at the same time auditioning the resonance of diplomatic overtures and/or demands. Put differently, articles like the one below give the Russian approach an upper hand at all times. Having such a saturation of differing media messaging gives the Russian government cover for any changes in approach to objectives as events demand.
Much more succinctly: Moscow speaks, the world reacts.
They have superiority in freedom of action. This is the situation the allies and the Ukrainians have been in, since this epoch began. More to come gang!
⚠️ Confirmed: Real-time network data show a loss of connectivity to #Ukraine's State Savings Bank, impacting ATM and banking services; disruptions also reported on Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces networks; incident comes amid heightened tensions with Russia 📉 pic.twitter.com/QMbPPpCzaV
MiG-31K and Il-38 aircraft arrived at the Khmeimim airbase as part of the exercise Anna Berestova 05:00 25.06.2021
Click on the link below for Czekmate Analysis and Commentary
Several Russian military aircraft arrived at the Khmeimim airbase in Syria as part of an exercise. More than 15 warships and over 30 aircraft are taking part in the exercises of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea.
On Friday, in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, joint exercises of the forces of the permanent task force of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea and aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces began. As part of the event, a pair of MiG-31K aircraft, which have the ability to use the latest hypersonic missiles from the Kinzhal complex, and an Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft, flew from Russian airfields to the Russian Khmeimim airbase in the Syrian Arab Republic.
According to the plan of the exercises, five ships of the Russian Navy, in particular the missile cruiser Moskva, the frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, as well as two submarines Stary Oskol and Rostov-on-Don, together with anti-submarine aircraft Tu- 142MK, Il-38, Tu-22M3 long-range bombers and MiG-31K aircraft will perform combat training tasks to ensure the security of the Khmeimim airbase and the Russian Navy’s logistics center Tartus.
Also, during training flights, aviation technology and equipment will be tested in difficult climatic conditions, including those caused by high temperatures and the possibility of long-term flights over the water surface. Aircraft crews will acquire practical skills for working out training tasks in new geographical areas.
At the moment, an air strike group led by the aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth is in the Mediterranean Sea. In this regard, one of the goals of the exercises will be to monitor the actions of an aircraft carrier group.
In May this past year, the reconstruction of the second runway at the Khmeimim air base was completed with a complete replacement of the coating and the installation of new lighting and radio equipment. Thanks to the increase in the length of the runway at the Khmeimim airfield, the crews of Russian long-range aviation and the latest missile carriers have been able to practice practical skills in performing tasks in the airspace over the Mediterranean Sea.
MOSCOW, RUSSIA – MARCH 11, 2020: A plenary meeting of the Russian State Duma, the lower house of the Russian Parliament, to consider constitutional changes in the third and final reading. Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS
De-escalation in Ukraine? The Duma is forced to consider recognition of the Luhansk and Donbas regions
The past twenty-four hours have seen protean developments in the diplomatic panorama with respect to the standoff between Russia and Ukraine. As of this writing, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Kiev and reports are slow to emerge. He will be in Moscow tomorrow. But the press picture emerging from Russia appears to show that the Kremlin is finding a new way forward. Also clear from this is that his methods are imperfect, but they show an agility of statecraft resulting in Putin generally getting his way from this row between the two countries.
The Russian state legislative assembly, known as the Duma, has two proposals regarding the recognition of the separatist regions of Donbas and Luhansk. One is presented by the Communist Party and the other by the United Russia Party. Putin does not claim official leadership of United Russia, but it is chaired by his longtime ally Dimitri Medvedev. The party generally does as he instructs and is the largest party in the Duma.
Put bluntly, the true nature of the Russian government remains as it was in Soviet days, that of an authoritarian state. In the post-cold war/détente era, Russia has picked up the veneer of political pluralism, free markets, and federalism. These are strictly pretense.
Domestically and diplomatically, it is a sleight of hand that the Russian Federation includes the Duma in its decision calculus. But it seems to be a new course of action. The Putin government was slow to make clear that the central complaint animating the buildup of Russian forces disposed toward Ukrainian territory, was the implementation of the Minsk agreement with respect to the two regions in question. It was a subject change from the enlargement of the NATO alliance which was his original point of emphasis as the buildup gained global attention.
It was the week of February 6th, when the shift occurred after the allies would not commit to any course of action with respect to NATO enlargement. Putin’s initial calculation may have been to humiliate the west by breaking “allied consensus” that NATO is open to all aspirants who meet membership criteria. Allied consensus isn’t merely a diplomatic term of art, it is an inviolable method of doing business in the alliance. Amid the war mongering din of western press, Putin’s team slyly changed the subject to that of the treatment of the two separatist regions, saying nothing about their ongoing occupation of the Crimean Peninsula.
It appears to have worked. Throughout this saga, Putin’s team has seized and retained the diplomatic initiative throughout the rise in tensions and has shown a deftness at rolling with circumstances that tends to be intrinsic to authoritarian countries in high stakes moments of international politics. It is an agility that comes with the unity of effort among the entire state and state influenced apparatus. This includes, but is not limited to, the central government, the legislative and judiciary, the press, and industry. In such instances a political position can turn on a dime at the direction of the ruling elite.
Such is the case with the kabuki theater surrounding the Duma’s consideration of recognition of the Donbass and Luhansk, while artfully leaving Crimea off the table. You can be assured that Putin’s team wrote a set of points for members of the Duma. One is likely to be wholly unacceptable (likely the communist party proposal) and the other will be more “moderate” (United Russia’s proposal). Both of which will move the goalposts using the Minsk agreement into terms preferable to Moscow’s outlook. They will provide the west “an out” and save face that what the Duma decides could have been worse. According to English language editions of Russian media, the measures are to be considered while German Chancellor Scholz is to be in Moscow (tomorrow) for talks on the Ukraine issue as well as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Czekmate has seen nothing concrete regarding the Duma measures, but when one overlays the rise in inflammatory rhetoric from those regions (Donbas and Luhansk) alongside the fabulism being reported by the Russian press, this is the State Department’s (Ned Price) false flag. It is in progress now, but the script is flipped in favor of a de-escalation.
Such exaggerations by the Russian media in tandem with the Duma debate are meant as much for Russia’s domestic consumption as they are for the world. Putin is on thin ice when it comes to deploying the Russian military. Since the interventions in Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan of the 1990s through the first decade of this century, the Russian population is restive on the question of military adventurism. They were brutal interventions by the Russian army.
Many observers argue that the deployment to Syria using elite non-conscript formations shows that the Russian government has overcome this through instituting a volunteer military. However, this policy is not universal in the Russian military. Further, the Russian population historically galvanizes in defensive campaign where the country is being viewed as victimized.
Thus, Putin’s move with respect to the separatist regions is recast to address an effrontery constructed by the west against the pan-Russian identity and a literal mortal danger to fellow would-be countrymen. The actual history of Russophone Ukraine is the legacy of Josef Stalin’s induced famine of these regions in 1932-33. After that engineered genocide, the Soviet state resettled Russian speakers in these lands and Moscow has since nurtured these culturally Russian affinities over the decades. This was a means of asserting political influence over greater Ukraine. 90 years later it is still in play, being capitalized on for the purposes of giving Putin this alternate course of action.
The Scholz visit to Moscow tomorrow, will be telling. Does Germany, with heavy exposure to the Russian economy through its trading relationship, deliver a compromise? Does Crimea remain off the scene? It is the home to the Russian Black Sea fleet and its southern aspirations. Do Putin and his coterie maneuver past an outright conflict and settle short of the war that the White House is desperate for? Captain Dementia, Jake Sullivan and Hillary need a subject change stat.
Czekmate will try to keep the Fighting Czekmates Group updated, and pass development as warranted.
This a very respectable write up of the current state of play in Ukraine. Well worth your time to take in and disregard cable news in the US. If you read/view nothing else but read this, you’re pretty well up to speed. Czekmate will help with where it looks like it is all going.
RIA Novosti is reporting that the Ukrainian Army is provoking the Donbas and Luhansk separatist militia using western weapons and American “Mercenaries” from Academi (Formerly Blackwater Worldwide. It goes on to describe the Ukrainian Army as concentrated in an array against these two regions.
Czekmate thought bubble: ‘Such clear horse-s–t’
Czekmate Comment: This is Russian state media, who’ve gone into justification of a course of action on the part of the Russian government that has yet to make itself plain. The amount of firepower being gathered opposite the Ukrainian frontier and in the Black Sea is massive. However, much of what it is accomplishing in Czekmate’s view is to give Ukraine something to think about in terms of the options available to the Kremlin and consequently how few are available to a defensive Kiev. As stated in one of my musings yesterday, it also forces Ukraine to thin out its military posture nationwide leaving the offensive initiative even more with the Russian Army.
In that light, the RIA article is truly slam-tied propaganda in line with the factional/national interests of Putin’s team. Those who follow Czekmate’s rather unorthodox thought train on the Russian buildup and the diplomacy surrounding it would observe that Ukraine would be unwise to concentrate forces opposite the DPR and LPR. They are more likely to be widely dispersed in order to cover multiple lanes of potential approach by the Russian Army.
In that light the national government under Prime Minister Zelensky has either been admirably cool-headed or criminally complacent about that which is arrayed against them. Much of the anecdotal information about daily life in and around Kiev suggests that churches, schools, bars and clubs are continuing to operate as usual. If the Ukrainian press is accurate, just today the Ukrainian Army cancelled all leave to include recalling troops already on leave. In short, Ukraine seems to be observing a posture that the tensions are overhyped and they are not going to play the provocateur.
Also in the “win column” for the Ukrainian government is that they appear to be successful with the deployment of their diplomatic service. Specifically, they were quick to protest the expansive closure areas for Naval exercises on the Black Sea this past week. Within the past 48 hours they also used the Vienna Document to make a request of the Russian government as to their intentions regarding such a massive deployment of forces. This is exactly what this diplomatic arrangement should be used for. Other treaty mechanisms such as the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty are in the proverbial hurt locker. But the Vienna Document continues to have buy-in from the Russian government and all other members of the OSCE (Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe).
The bottom line for the Ukrainian government is that they seem to be the adults in the room throughout this entire epoch. As of this writing, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister is tweeting that the Russian Federation did not make its deadline to respond under the terms of the Vienna document.
Update on Russian response to terms of Vienna document. Russia states it has not conducted any unusual military activity in their country. Russia states Ukraine’s claim is not admissible.
Czekmate does not have high hopes for the German Chancellor’s trip to Kiev and Moscow in the next few days. Although, Germany seems to have the best shot for being the most honest broker. They are a party to the “Normandy Format” quad partite arrangement which helped end the LPR & DPR conflict of 2014, Both Ukraine and Russia (In addition to Germany and France) have equities in keeping the arrangement viable. This is borne out in multiple recent Kremlin statements about returning to the Minsk agreement, also a product of the Normandy Format talks in the city of the same name.
German interest is in resolving this matter with little economic damage owing to the exposure of the German economy to Russian trade. Sanctions could actually bite where Germany is concerned. The other western player among the Normandy Format states, France appears to have disengaged. President Macron is a deeply unpopular leader, and one cannot help but consider his journey to Moscow, Kiev, and Berlin last week was an attempt to buttress his reelection chance in August. Putin certainly knew that when Macron made it to Moscow.
“Excuse my language, but we don’t give a $#!+ about all their sanctions. We have already had so many sanctions and in that sense they’ve had a positive effect on our economy and agriculture. New sanctions are nothing positive but not as bad as the West makes it sound.” -Viktor Tatarintsev, Russian Diplomat
Galatians 5:1 For freedom Christ has set us free; stand firm therefore, and do not submit again to a yoke of slavery. ESV
Photo: Getty
The initial focus of the study is the translated word “submit” in the ESV. This is the Greek word ἐνέχω/enechó. Depending on the translation of the Bible, ἐνέχω/enechó is used as “burdened” in the NIV, “subject” in the NASB, “entangled” in KJV versions, and “encumbered” in the Berean Study Bible. The word can also mean to keep or hold a grudge against one.
The word is used only three times in the New Testament. Let’s look at the other two examples.
Mark 6:19 And Herodias had a grudge against him and wanted to put him to death. But she could not…
The “him” in the verse above is John the Baptist. Herodias had it in for John because of what John had told Herod in the previous verse. Herodias had a vengeful, nasty attitude against John the Baptist. She eventually executed her grudge through her daughter. John the Baptist was beheaded.
Mark 6:18 For John had been saying to Herod, “It is not lawful for you to have your brother’s wife.”
Luke 11:53 As He went away from there, the scribes and the Pharisees began to press Him hard and to provoke Him to speak about many things…
Scripture is full of examples of how the legal experts of the day treated Jesus. None of them are favorable. The motivation of the scribes and Pharisees is noted in the next verse. And eventually, these legalists would have Jesus illegally arrested, tried under a kangaroo court, and executed on the cross.
Luke 11:54 …plotting against Him to catch Him in something He might say.
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This should be our attitude toward the “yoke of slavery” that is sin. We should have absolute spite and disregard for unlawful behavior. We should have a gnawing, relentless disgust. Execute and kick bad lifestyle habits, choices out of our lives. ἐνέχω/enechó and don’t go back to your old ways.
Russia is increasing its efforts to communicate their disapproval of recent Israeli activity in Syria. Coordinated communications are emerging. Russia is pursuing “humanitarian assistance” in Syria.
US military brass has expressed concerns of Russian military activity spilling into the Middle East from Ukraine.
Satellite images show Russian building possible military hospitals in preparation for a possible invasion.
Shortages of commodities are emerging around the world. Energy prices continue to spike higher.
All of this and more on the This Week in Prophecy. Click on the link below for news, information, and analysis.
“This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.” – Goldman pic.twitter.com/80hIQ6H3ii
Russia and Ukraine, February 10, 2022… Czekmate’s Operational Analysis & Commentary
Czekmate provides a history of Russian and Ukrainian relations. He discusses Russia’s strategy of “Frozen Conflicts”. Current location of Russian naval assets are reviewed. Location of Battalion Tactical Groups and equipment is evaluated.
Click on the video link below for insights, analysis and commentary.
God is in control of history.
Matthew 24:6 And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. -NKJV
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Czekmate is a must follow if you want to stay up to date with what is happening in the Middle East. He posts articles, videos, analysis and opinion.
Czekmate is wired into the Middle East and follows the region closely. He is up to date with current events and provides excellent analysis in the theater.
The Fighting Czekmates is a home for people with an unconventional outlook on world affairs. Get in touch with your instincts and don’t get married to your opinions. We welcome good natured argument, we tolerate stubbornness, but not rudeness or trolling. It is proctored by a seasoned practitioner. Gauge your audiences above all. We value information exchange and patriotic teamwork.
Czekmate is a nom de guerre for a Washington DC based consultant who specializes in International affairs and national security regulatory matters. He holds a master’s degree in National Security and Strategic Studies from the US Naval War College. He has worked in Republican politics, Congress, and the Departments of State & Defense for the bulk of his career. In those endeavors he received awards for research pertaining to international illicit weapons networks.
He is a Christian and a practitioner of charismatic faith whose current work involves advising clients on cyber security compliance in the defense arena.
