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This Week in Prophecy: Russia Halts Gas to Europe, Russia/China/India War Games, Currency Wars, Turkey Threatens Greece

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 4, 2022 by paulthepoke

Labor Day Weekend, September 2022, This Week in Prophecy…

photo credit: Moneycontrol.com

Russia has cut off the flow of natural gas to Europe. Nord Stream 1 has been shut down indefinitely.

“Europe’s storages are well on track to hitting or even surpassing their targets for this summer, and there’s plenty of scope to replace that gas with liquified natural gas imports for now, but when weather turns cold and demand starts to pick up in the winter in Europe and Asia, there’s only so much LNG out there that Europe can import to replace Russian gas.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/02/nord-stream-1-gazprom-announces-indefinite-shutdown-of-pipeline

Companies are shutting down across Europe due to high gas and electricity costs. This week, the world’s second largest steel maker is closing indefinitely.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Worlds-Second-Largest-Steelmaker-Closes-European-Plant.html

Revelation 9:16 Now the number of the army of the horsemen was two hundred million; I heard the number of them.

Vostok ’22 is underway with China and India joining Russia in the war games. The military exercise will take place from September 1-7, 2022 in Russia’s Far East and the Sea of Japan. Russia will join with troops from ex-Soviet nations, China, India, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua and Syria.

“The exercise isn’t directed against any specific countries or military alliances and is purely defensive,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Fomin.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/29/russia-to-launch-military-drills-with-china

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Countries across the Middle East are turning away from the US dollar. Egypt has agreed to issue debt in the Chinese Yuan.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/08/egypt-issue-bonds-chinas-currency-yuan

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The Federal Reserve is tightening and pulling US dollars out of the system. The US dollar is gaining strength. Interest rates are increasing and the price of debt is going up.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/121507-chart-of-the-day-recent-balance-sheet-trends?type=macro%2Cmarket-insights

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Revelation 2:8a And to the angel of the church in Smyrna write…

Turkey is threatening Greece in the Aegean Sea. President Recep Erdogan invokes modern day Izmir or ancient Smyrna in his comments. Remember the churches in Revelation???

“We have only one word to tell Greece: Do not forget Izmir (Smyrna in Greek). Your occupation of the islands does not bind us. When the time comes, we will do what’s necessary. As we say, we may come suddenly one night.” Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan in reference to the end of the Greek occupation after Turkish forces entered the city in the Aegean coast in 1922.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/09/03/Erdogan-warns-Greece-it-will-pay-heavy-price-over-Aegean-airspace-violations

https://paulthepoke.com/?s=smyrna

For all of this and more analysis and commentary, click on the YouTube link below. Welcome to This Week in Prophecy.

https://www.amazon.com/Paul-Lehr/e/B09W8FB77N

Israel, Egypt, and European Union Sign Historic Gas Deal

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 16, 2022 by paulthepoke

Deuteronomy 33:18-19 And of Zebulun he said, “Rejoice, Zebulun, in your going out, and Issachar, in your tents. They shall call peoples to their mountain; there they offer right sacrifices; for they draw from the abundance of the seas and the hidden treasures of the sand.”

In early October 2015, Israel discovered a vast oil deposit in the Golan Heights region north of the Sea of Galilee. The coast of Israel is home to two tremendous areas of natural gas. The Leviathan oil and gas basin in the Mediterranean Sea is believed to hold 1.7 billion barrels of oil. The basin also holds an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Noble Energy, U.S. Geological Survey). A second oil and natural gas basin is the Tamar. It is estimated to hold 7.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Noble Energy). In June of 2022, a third major basin is emerging, the Karish gas field.

Click on the video/audio link below for more analysis and commentary.

Cairo, Egypt, June 16, 2022: Israel, Egypt, and the European Union have signed a historic gas deal. The document has gas deliveries to Europe until 2050. Under the plan, Israeli gas will be transported by pipeline to Egypt’s Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminal on the Mediterranean Sea. Then, LNG will be transported by ship to Europe.

The deal should bring 1 Billion shekels or $290 million dollars to the Israeli government.

Egyptian Petroleum Minister Tarek el-Molla indicated the agreement should result in more economic cooperation between members of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, which comprises Jordan, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, France and Italy.

Europe now has existing gas deals with Israel, the United States, and Qatar.

“The memorandum of understanding will allow Israel to export Israeli natural gas to Europe for the first time, and it is even more impressive when one looks at the string of significant agreements we have signed in the past year, positioning Israel and the Israeli energy and water economy as a key player in the world,” Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elharrar.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-eu-egypt-agree-deal-to-export-natural-gas-to-europe/

“This is a historic day for the EU’s energy engagement and energy security: Signing the MOU with Egypt and Israel, two reliable, strategic partners. We will be able to count on LNG from Israel and the Mediterranean region via the Egyptian LNG infrastructure,” EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/israeli-energy-minister-inks-deal-export-gas-europe-egypt#ixzz7WQ2wQRUi

The European Union receives approximately 40% of its natural gas from Russia.

“The Kremlin has used our dependency on Russian fossil fuels to blackmail us. Since the beginning of the war, Russia has deliberately cut off its gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria and Finland, and Dutch and Danish companies, in retaliation for our support to Ukraine,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-egypt-eu-gas-export-deal-signed

As this deal was being signed, Russia via Gazprom closed the spigot of natural gas by 15% to Italy on the same day. An explanation was not given. Italy receives 40% of its gas from Russia.

Gazprom also cut delivery of natural gas to Germany by 40%. Equipment repairs were needed, allegedly.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gazprom-Reduces-Gas-Flows-To-Italy.html

Ezekiel 38:12 to capture spoil and to seize plunder, to turn your hand against the waste places which are now inhabited, and against the people who are gathered from the nations, who have acquired cattle and goods, who live at the center of the world.

…to turn your hand against the waste places which are now inhabited… This is an accurate description of the land of Israel prior to their return to the land in the early 20th century. The land was known as chorbah in the Hebrew. Per Strong’s it means: a place laid waste, ruin, waste, desolation, or a desert.

… and against the people who are gathered from the nations… From the Balfour Declaration in 1917, the rebirth of a nation in 1948, to reclaiming Jerusalem as its capital in 1967, Jews have been returning to their land to the present day.

… who have acquired cattle and goods… Cows from Israel are noted to be the most productive in the world when it comes to milk. Cows are constantly monitored and under intense observation. Data is taken intently from a variety of perspectives.

… who live at the center of the world. This is God’s view of the nation Israel. This is where His people live. The geography of the nation is “the center of the world”.

https://www.amazon.com/Paul-Lehr/e/B09W8FB77N

Russia and Ukraine, February 14, 2022… Czekmate’s Operational Analysis & Commentary

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Czekmate, Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on February 14, 2022 by paulthepoke
MOSCOW, RUSSIA – MARCH 11, 2020: A plenary meeting of the Russian State Duma, the lower house of the Russian Parliament, to consider constitutional changes in the third and final reading. Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS

De-escalation in Ukraine?  The Duma is forced to consider recognition of the Luhansk and Donbas regions

The past twenty-four hours have seen protean developments in the diplomatic panorama with respect to the standoff between Russia and Ukraine.  As of this writing, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Kiev and reports are slow to emerge.  He will be in Moscow tomorrow.  But the press picture emerging from Russia appears to show that the Kremlin is finding a new way forward.  Also clear from this is that his methods are imperfect, but they show an agility of statecraft resulting in Putin generally getting his way from this row between the two countries.

The Russian state legislative assembly, known as the Duma, has two proposals regarding the recognition of the separatist regions of Donbas and Luhansk.  One is presented by the Communist Party and the other by the United Russia Party.  Putin does not claim official leadership of United Russia, but it is chaired by his longtime ally Dimitri Medvedev.  The party generally does as he instructs and is the largest party in the Duma. 

Put bluntly, the true nature of the Russian government remains as it was in Soviet days, that of an authoritarian state.  In the post-cold war/détente era, Russia has picked up the veneer of political pluralism, free markets, and federalism.  These are strictly pretense.

Domestically and diplomatically, it is a sleight of hand that the Russian Federation includes the Duma in its decision calculus.  But it seems to be a new course of action.  The Putin government was slow to make clear that the central complaint animating the buildup of Russian forces disposed toward Ukrainian territory, was the implementation of the Minsk agreement with respect to the two regions in question.  It was a subject change from the enlargement of the NATO alliance which was his original point of emphasis as the buildup gained global attention.

It was the week of February 6th, when the shift occurred after the allies would not commit to any course of action with respect to NATO enlargement.  Putin’s initial calculation may have been to humiliate the west by breaking “allied consensus” that NATO is open to all aspirants who meet membership criteria.  Allied consensus isn’t merely a diplomatic term of art, it is an inviolable method of doing business in the alliance.  Amid the war mongering din of western press, Putin’s team slyly changed the subject to that of the treatment of the two separatist regions, saying nothing about their ongoing occupation of the Crimean Peninsula.

It appears to have worked.  Throughout this saga, Putin’s team has seized and retained the diplomatic initiative throughout the rise in tensions and has shown a deftness at rolling with circumstances that tends to be intrinsic to authoritarian countries in high stakes moments of international politics.  It is an agility that comes with the unity of effort among the entire state and state influenced apparatus.  This includes, but is not limited to, the central government, the legislative and judiciary, the press, and industry.  In such instances a political position can turn on a dime at the direction of the ruling elite.

Such is the case with the kabuki theater surrounding the Duma’s consideration of recognition of the Donbass and Luhansk, while artfully leaving Crimea off the table.  You can be assured that Putin’s team wrote a set of points for members of the Duma.  One is likely to be wholly unacceptable (likely the communist party proposal) and the other will be more “moderate” (United Russia’s proposal).  Both of which will move the goalposts using the Minsk agreement into terms preferable to Moscow’s outlook.  They will provide the west “an out” and save face that what the Duma decides could have been worse.  According to English language editions of Russian media, the measures are to be considered while German Chancellor Scholz is to be in Moscow (tomorrow) for talks on the Ukraine issue as well as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Czekmate has seen nothing concrete regarding the Duma measures, but when one overlays the rise in inflammatory rhetoric from those regions (Donbas and Luhansk) alongside the fabulism being reported by the Russian press, this is the State Department’s (Ned Price) false flag.  It is in progress now, but the script is flipped in favor of a de-escalation. 

Such exaggerations by the Russian media in tandem with the Duma debate are meant as much for Russia’s domestic consumption as they are for the world.  Putin is on thin ice when it comes to deploying the Russian military.  Since the interventions in Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan of the 1990s through the first decade of this century, the Russian population is restive on the question of military adventurism.  They were brutal interventions by the Russian army. 

Many observers argue that the deployment to Syria using elite non-conscript formations shows that the Russian government has overcome this through instituting a volunteer military.  However, this policy is not universal in the Russian military.  Further, the Russian population historically galvanizes in defensive campaign where the country is being viewed as victimized.

Thus, Putin’s move with respect to the separatist regions is recast to address an effrontery constructed by the west against the pan-Russian identity and a literal mortal danger to fellow would-be countrymen.  The actual history of Russophone Ukraine is the legacy of Josef Stalin’s induced famine of these regions in 1932-33.  After that engineered genocide, the Soviet state resettled Russian speakers in these lands and Moscow has since nurtured these culturally Russian affinities over the decades.  This was a means of asserting political influence over greater Ukraine.  90 years later it is still in play, being capitalized on for the purposes of giving Putin this alternate course of action.

The Scholz visit to Moscow tomorrow, will be telling.  Does Germany, with heavy exposure to the Russian economy through its trading relationship, deliver a compromise?  Does Crimea remain off the scene?  It is the home to the Russian Black Sea fleet and its southern aspirations.  Do Putin and his coterie maneuver past an outright conflict and settle short of the war that the White House is desperate for?  Captain Dementia, Jake Sullivan and Hillary need a subject change stat.  

Czekmate will try to keep the Fighting Czekmates Group updated, and pass development as warranted.

This a very respectable write up of the current state of play in Ukraine. Well worth your time to take in and disregard cable news in the US. If you read/view nothing else but read this, you’re pretty well up to speed. Czekmate will help with where it looks like it is all going.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10510145/Russian-state-media-begins-propaganda-push-amid-fears-Ukraine-invasion-imminent.html

Russia and Ukraine, February 13, 2022… Czekmate’s Operational Analysis & Commentary

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Czekmate, Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on February 13, 2022 by paulthepoke

RIA Novosti is reporting that the Ukrainian Army is provoking the Donbas and Luhansk separatist militia using western weapons and American “Mercenaries” from Academi (Formerly Blackwater Worldwide. It goes on to describe the Ukrainian Army as concentrated in an array against these two regions.

Czekmate thought bubble: ‘Such clear horse-s–t’

Czekmate Comment: This is Russian state media, who’ve gone into justification of a course of action on the part of the Russian government that has yet to make itself plain. The amount of firepower being gathered opposite the Ukrainian frontier and in the Black Sea is massive. However, much of what it is accomplishing in Czekmate’s view is to give Ukraine something to think about in terms of the options available to the Kremlin and consequently how few are available to a defensive Kiev. As stated in one of my musings yesterday, it also forces Ukraine to thin out its military posture nationwide leaving the offensive initiative even more with the Russian Army.

In that light, the RIA article is truly slam-tied propaganda in line with the factional/national interests of Putin’s team. Those who follow Czekmate’s rather unorthodox thought train on the Russian buildup and the diplomacy surrounding it would observe that Ukraine would be unwise to concentrate forces opposite the DPR and LPR. They are more likely to be widely dispersed in order to cover multiple lanes of potential approach by the Russian Army.

In that light the national government under Prime Minister Zelensky has either been admirably cool-headed or criminally complacent about that which is arrayed against them. Much of the anecdotal information about daily life in and around Kiev suggests that churches, schools, bars and clubs are continuing to operate as usual. If the Ukrainian press is accurate, just today the Ukrainian Army cancelled all leave to include recalling troops already on leave. In short, Ukraine seems to be observing a posture that the tensions are overhyped and they are not going to play the provocateur.

Also in the “win column” for the Ukrainian government is that they appear to be successful with the deployment of their diplomatic service. Specifically, they were quick to protest the expansive closure areas for Naval exercises on the Black Sea this past week. Within the past 48 hours they also used the Vienna Document to make a request of the Russian government as to their intentions regarding such a massive deployment of forces. This is exactly what this diplomatic arrangement should be used for. Other treaty mechanisms such as the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty are in the proverbial hurt locker. But the Vienna Document continues to have buy-in from the Russian government and all other members of the OSCE (Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe).

The bottom line for the Ukrainian government is that they seem to be the adults in the room throughout this entire epoch. As of this writing, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister is tweeting that the Russian Federation did not make its deadline to respond under the terms of the Vienna document.

Update on Russian response to terms of Vienna document. Russia states it has not conducted any unusual military activity in their country. Russia states Ukraine’s claim is not admissible.

Czekmate does not have high hopes for the German Chancellor’s trip to Kiev and Moscow in the next few days. Although, Germany seems to have the best shot for being the most honest broker. They are a party to the “Normandy Format” quad partite arrangement which helped end the LPR & DPR conflict of 2014, Both Ukraine and Russia (In addition to Germany and France) have equities in keeping the arrangement viable. This is borne out in multiple recent Kremlin statements about returning to the Minsk agreement, also a product of the Normandy Format talks in the city of the same name.

German interest is in resolving this matter with little economic damage owing to the exposure of the German economy to Russian trade. Sanctions could actually bite where Germany is concerned. The other western player among the Normandy Format states, France appears to have disengaged. President Macron is a deeply unpopular leader, and one cannot help but consider his journey to Moscow, Kiev, and Berlin last week was an attempt to buttress his reelection chance in August. Putin certainly knew that when Macron made it to Moscow.

“Excuse my language, but we don’t give a $#!+ about all their sanctions. We have already had so many sanctions and in that sense they’ve had a positive effect on our economy and agriculture. New sanctions are nothing positive but not as bad as the West makes it sound.” -Viktor Tatarintsev, Russian Diplomat

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10507761/Putin-doesnt-s-t-sanctions-Russian-ambassador-says-amid-Ukraine-invasion-fears.html

Recession in Europe, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on February 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Recession may be starting in Europe!

Real Estate is an illiquid asset, tenants and leases and sales and marketing and escrows take time. The timing model clearly indicates slowdown and for over a year the warnings have been very clear. The slowdown is now fact and price declines are starting to become visible.


Europe is teetering on the edge of a Recession. A Recession with Historic Debt and non-existent Interest rates!


New data shows Central Bank Intervention in the Global markets; markets react quickly as seen in the  recent runup. However, the liquidity lag time for the general Economy is easily a few quarters and may be too late to avoid a Recession.

Economic indications indicate Italy and the Netherlands have entered into recession. How should we prepare for global economic recession.


Is the Powerhouse of Europe, Germany, heading into Recession? What will this mean for the United States?

Click on the video for German economic data

A Recession now could be EPIC! It also coincides with the Timing Model; the precursor to the ‘Explosive” Phase.


Trend Update: Turkey’s Erdogan at Odds with Europe, March 2017

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 15, 2017 by paulthepoke

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

According to the prophet Ezekiel, Russia will be joined by several countries in their future invasion of Israel. One of those countries is modern day Turkey. Scripture says Turkey is a player in the Ezekiel 38-39 scenario, the Gog and Magog war and invasion of Israel. The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Tubal, Gomer and his son Togarmah) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan is making news across Europe. With the upcoming election later this spring on April 16, 2017, Erdogan is looking to expand his presidential powers. If given authority, he would be allowed to appoint the majority of judges, determine ministers, set the agenda for the budget, create law by decree, declare states of emergency, and dismiss parliament if necessary. This could potentially allow Erdogan to remain in power until 2029.

Erdogan is taking his campaign to Europe by holding rallies in European countries. Not all European countries are in favor of these Turkish political rallies. European leaders have expressed concern for safety at the rallies.

erdogan rally

Turkey’s president needs the vote and support of the people. The issue is Turks who are eligible to vote. Some of the registered voters are living abroad in Europe. It is estimated there are 5.5 million Turks who are eligible to vote who live in Europe. 1.4 million Turkish voters live in Germany.

March 5, 2017: Germany blocked several pro Erdogan rallies which resulted in some strong language from Turkey’s president.

“Your practices are not different from the Nazi practices of the past. I thought it’s been a long time since Germany left [Nazi practices]. We are mistaken.” –President Recep Erdogan of Turkey.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/05/erdogan-accuses-germany-of-nazi-practices-over-blocked-election-rallies

March 12, 2017: Riot police engaged the pro Erdogan supporters in Rotterdam, Netherlands. The Turkish Family Minister was escorted out of the country. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was not allowed into the country.

Erdogan has not taken kindly to cancellation of rallies. “I have said that I had thought that Nazism was over, but that I was wrong. Nazism is alive in the West,” President Recep Erdogan of Turkey.

In reference to the Dutch, Erdogan proclaimed, “They are very nervous and cowardly. They are Nazi remnants, they are fascists.”

Sweden has cancelled scheduled events for Erdogan support.

Austria has indicated rallies are not appropriate in their country.

Denmark Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen postponed a gathering.

Switzerland has said no to Erdogan political rallies.

However, the French were agreeable to and allowed a rally in Metz, France.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39248646

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/11/erdogan-calls-dutch-fascists-row-turkey-netherlands-escalates/

Currently, Turkey is a member of NATO. Europe is not pleased with a fellow NATO member’s comments toward pledged allies. You know Russia’s Vladimir Putin is watching and courting Turkey’s Erdogan.

 

 

 

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