Archive for cycle

This Time is Different! It Is Way Worse! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , on February 22, 2024 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him.

Here are a couple of economic videos and updates from Michael Douville.

My Timing model is a Real Estate Cycle Timing model. These cycles repeat over and over again on a fairly regular basis. This will be my 3rd or 4th cycle.

The main reason why Asset Bubbles are created is Excess Liquidity and, in this Cycle, there has been a massive amount of Excess Liquidity, or Economic Fuel, that is going to be resolved back to the “Mean”, probably a credit event of epic proportions.

Those that buy too late in the Cycle risk taking major losses as the Historic Bubble deflates.

For all segments of Real Estate. Most are focusing on Housing, which is also set to complete, but evidence that the Cycle is completing is centered in the Commercial Real Estate space.

I am encouraging Investors in Endangered Cities to move their investments to better markets via an IRC 1031 Tax deferred exchange. This is very inexpensive and does not trigger a tax implication. Schedule an appointment to review your situation. Let’s get ready to invest when the time is right. Contact me to schedule an appointment.

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Banks, Pension Funds, and Insurance Companies are Doomed!

Most are focusing on Housing which is also set to complete, but the Collapse is most evident in Commercial Real Estate. The Real Estate Cycle is completing, and it is centered in the Commercial Real Estate space. Currently in the Office Market, but very well could migrate to multi-family.

When the devastation has passed, those that have their Capital, have their Credit, and have their Income Streams will make a generational FORTUNE!

My Model is forecasting tougher times to come that could last 24-20 months.

DISCLAIMERS: Any information or advice available on this channel is intended for educational and general guidance only. Michael Douville shall not be liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of access to or use of any of the content available on this channel. Consult a financial advisor or other wealth management professional before you make investments of any kind.

Although Michael Douville and his affiliates take all reasonable care to ensure that the contents of this channel are accurate and up to date, all information contained on it is provided ‘as is.’

Michael Douville makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained on this channel.

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Classes for Investing are being scheduled in Phoenix, AZ.

Website: https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

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Inflation Pressure and Demographic Pressure!!! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on November 16, 2021 by paulthepoke

INFLATION!!!

Here is the latest from Michael Douville. Michael is call for home prices to continue to increase across the country per his cyclical timing model. The 18 Year Real Estate Cycle is reviewed. Michael points out where we are in the model. How much longer will prices continue to rise?

The mainstream press reports of “transitory” inflation. Or are we witnessing a full blown inflation cycle. Michael thinks inflation is here to stay for awhile. But for how long?

Inflation is occurring around the globe. Producers like China and Japan have inflation that is greater than our consuming inflation here in the United States. What does this mean for future prices here in the United States?

Inflation is showing no signs of slowing. Inflation is broad based across all sectors of the economy. We are currently on track for the highest inflation in 50 years dating back to the 1970’s. The majority of the population has never experienced this level of inflation.

What role does Demographics play in this scenario? Millennials (born from 1982-2000) are moving out of their parent’s basements. This is the largest segment of the United States population.

Millennials are starting to rent apartments and houses. Rent continues to increase year over year.

Millennials are getting married and families are developing. They will need to buy goods. And they will need to buy houses.

Home inventories across the country are the lowest in decades. There is a shortage of homes to buy. Building and construction pressures are mounting. Lenders are beginning to relax borrowing standards.

Click on the video below to get the details from Michael.

Website: https://michaeldouville.com/

Revelation 6:5-6 When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a black horse! And its rider had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”

Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage to eat. John the Revelator promises that hyperinflation is coming at some point prior to the return of Jesus Christ. Hyperinflation is on the scene prior to the onset of the Great Tribulation. Are we watching the dominoes being put into place??? Are we witnessing the seeds of hyperinflation? Be on guard and watch!

We are living in interesting times as the Chinese would say…

michael@michaeldouville.com

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Good Times Do Not Last Forever…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 14, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelLuke 12:15 Then He said to them, “Beware, and be on your guard against every form of greed; for not even when one has an abundance does his life consist of his possessions.”

A Tourist on vacation in Las Vegas can pick up the dice at the Craps Table and start a winning streak. Throwing the dice to win 5 times in a row and the casual gambler is becoming convinced the “House” will be paying for a Steak Dinner and a nice bottle of wine. Win 7 times and the Vacation is paid, 9 times and the Kids’ College can be funded, and in just a little more time, the casual gambler is now a “Pro” on his way to “breaking the House”. Just one more throw of the dice to complete “Financial Freedom”. A great Plan until it no longer works; disaster, catastrophe, an unforeseen calamity! All of the Cocktail Waitresses, Dealers, and Pit Bosses knew the streak would end; they had seen it many times before. In the Casino on Wall Street, the Dealers have seen this before; three Stock Bubbles in 20 years. Just like in Vegas, you have to know when to quit!

The signs have been there for quite a while; P/E’s over 30, Historic Margin Debt, declining Commercial and Industrial Loans, Technicals of Advance-Decline and 200 day Moving Average deterioration are signaling a tired and aging Stock Market. Further, historically, Stock Markets last about 85-90 months; this one is very old at 103 months. Just a little longer; everything is Awesome! Until it’s NOT! Greed can overcome Prudence and it is Prudent to pay attention and maybe take some Profits! The Pit Bosses and Dealers will not tell you when it is time to leave; they want your money to remain in the Casino. The true Winners know to walkaway when you are up.

The cycle for the Stocks is historically about 7.5 years; the best gains are often at the very end. Is the Trump rally signaling a potential End? Since Election Night, the Stock Market has gained 15%; almost straight up without even a pullback. Perhaps simply re-arranging assets could protect the portfolio. Accumulating assets with Cash Flow components that mitigate Economic Stress and transitioning into asset classes with longer cycles can be safer from catastrophic declines. Conservative entry level single family homes rented to credit worthy families can be a careful Strategy with consistent Income to mitigate any Economic downturn and allow one to sleep well at night (SWAN). Charts for US Real Estate project 7-9 years before the start of the cycle’s completion. Plenty of time to accumulate a strong portfolio for future profits while providing monthly Income to fund Cruises to the South Pacific or pay bills if the Business Cycle slows. Residential Rentals have a Use Factor; they are a necessity like Food, Water, and Shelter and may be a Lifeboat in an Economic Storm.

Check out our website michaeldouville.com for more blogs, videos and Michael’s new book – How To Create A Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income.  The first consultation is always free!

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