Archive for economy

Good Times Do Not Last Forever…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 14, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelLuke 12:15 Then He said to them, “Beware, and be on your guard against every form of greed; for not even when one has an abundance does his life consist of his possessions.”

A Tourist on vacation in Las Vegas can pick up the dice at the Craps Table and start a winning streak. Throwing the dice to win 5 times in a row and the casual gambler is becoming convinced the “House” will be paying for a Steak Dinner and a nice bottle of wine. Win 7 times and the Vacation is paid, 9 times and the Kids’ College can be funded, and in just a little more time, the casual gambler is now a “Pro” on his way to “breaking the House”. Just one more throw of the dice to complete “Financial Freedom”. A great Plan until it no longer works; disaster, catastrophe, an unforeseen calamity! All of the Cocktail Waitresses, Dealers, and Pit Bosses knew the streak would end; they had seen it many times before. In the Casino on Wall Street, the Dealers have seen this before; three Stock Bubbles in 20 years. Just like in Vegas, you have to know when to quit!

The signs have been there for quite a while; P/E’s over 30, Historic Margin Debt, declining Commercial and Industrial Loans, Technicals of Advance-Decline and 200 day Moving Average deterioration are signaling a tired and aging Stock Market. Further, historically, Stock Markets last about 85-90 months; this one is very old at 103 months. Just a little longer; everything is Awesome! Until it’s NOT! Greed can overcome Prudence and it is Prudent to pay attention and maybe take some Profits! The Pit Bosses and Dealers will not tell you when it is time to leave; they want your money to remain in the Casino. The true Winners know to walkaway when you are up.

The cycle for the Stocks is historically about 7.5 years; the best gains are often at the very end. Is the Trump rally signaling a potential End? Since Election Night, the Stock Market has gained 15%; almost straight up without even a pullback. Perhaps simply re-arranging assets could protect the portfolio. Accumulating assets with Cash Flow components that mitigate Economic Stress and transitioning into asset classes with longer cycles can be safer from catastrophic declines. Conservative entry level single family homes rented to credit worthy families can be a careful Strategy with consistent Income to mitigate any Economic downturn and allow one to sleep well at night (SWAN). Charts for US Real Estate project 7-9 years before the start of the cycle’s completion. Plenty of time to accumulate a strong portfolio for future profits while providing monthly Income to fund Cruises to the South Pacific or pay bills if the Business Cycle slows. Residential Rentals have a Use Factor; they are a necessity like Food, Water, and Shelter and may be a Lifeboat in an Economic Storm.

Check out our website michaeldouville.com for more blogs, videos and Michael’s new book – How To Create A Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income.  The first consultation is always free!

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How to Make HUGE Profits without even Trying!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on October 4, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelMatthew 16:2-3 He answered them, “When it is evening, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.’ And in the morning, ‘It will be stormy today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times. -Jesus

Fortune 500 firms have had a few very good Quarters: sell product in Euro’s, Pounds, Yuans, Kronas, Swiss Francs, and even Rubles then convert them to US Dollars! Sheer Genius! An explosion in profitability without any improvements in Productivity, Innovation, or the time honored increases in Plants and Equipment! No additional employees are needed that would affect the profits; just devalue the US Dollar. Consider the fact that the beginning of the year, the US Dollar Index fluctuated between 102 and 103 and now is hovering around 93; a decline or devalue of 9.7% The Euro stood at 105 January 1st of this year and as of Oct 1, 2017 it is 118; a gain or strengthening of 12.3%.   What this means is Ford can sell a car for $30,000 Euros and convert to US Dollars with a Year-Over-Year gain of better than 12%: Genius! All of the multinational firms which are most if not all of them are experiencing this phenomenon! The Equity Markets are up 15% YTD, the US Dollar has devalued 12%. Could there be a Correlation? Could the decline of the dollar force the Stock Market higher? Further, Economies outside of the US receive the added bonus of Loan Repayments repaid in much cheaper Dollars discounting the Debt! Everyone wins! However, everything cycles! The US Dollar cycle IS forecast to go much lower, but buckle up and hold on, not necessarily in a straight line and not necessarily for just a few months!

The Business Cycle is getting tired and the accumulation of Debt has been Historic. In tough times or perilous times, the US Dollar becomes the currency of choice creating demand; demand will raise the price which will have the opposite affect of a declining Dollar: Markets will drop and Economies stall. The Globe would be vulnerable to a Recession, which would enhance the race to the US Dollar. Debt would become more expensive and much more difficult to service, possibly precipitating defaults of weaker entities. Once started, the completion to the Business Cycle will finish; a brutal cleansing will take place. Those that recognize the Portends and Prepare will not only survive, but have intact resources to purchase Assets that may be discounted to levels that will not be available for Generations, possibly never again.

The completion of this Business Cycle could be very scary. It could affect millions of families. Business revenues could decline precipitously; many will fail. We have been through this before and will go though it again in our lifetimes; in each case Income was paramount to survival. Further, over-leveraged, debt burdened entities were the greatest at risk; there is still time to pay debt. Although there are no guarantees in Life, Good Times do not last nor do Bad Times; this cleansing cycle will give way to incredibly better times. There are many Top Analysts that expect the Dollar to eventually cycle to new lows over the coming years, which might cause the Stock Market to explode to much higher levels and Real Assets skyrocket to new levels creating Generational Wealth.

In the Great Recession, the rental portfolio was a Lifeboat providing consistent cash flow month after month even though the general Business climate was very poor. The paper cash value declined, but the Income fluctuated well less than 10% and the vacancy factor dropped, the maintenance factor dropped, the taxes and insurance all dropped mitigating the slight decline in Rental Revenue. The current Investment Horizon is a minimum of 7 years which should be well beyond any crisis and the goal is to catch the bottom of the Dollar decline and the peak of the current Real Estate Cycle. Please consult with your advisor, but please consider re-allocating a portion of your portfolio to very conservative, residential rentals for consistent monthly Income.

Contact us at 480.948.5554 or michaeldouville0@gmail.com.  Your first consultation is always free and check out our website for more information at michaeldouville.com. Michael’s book “How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income” is available on Amazon. Thank you.

 

Retiring Wealthy Today, Back to Work in 10 Years?…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on August 7, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelProverbs 6:6-8 Go to the ant, O sluggard, observe her ways and be wise, which, having no chief, officer or ruler, prepares her food in the summer and gathers her provision in the harvest.

Plans! So many plans are made for the “Golden Years” when the kids braces are paid, first cars have been bought, tuitions have been paid, and the Age of Retirement has been attained. The “Nest Egg” of Retirement Funds, Savings, and Social Security should last a lifetime. A Lifetime can be a long time!

The GAO (Government Accounting Office) keeps track of the Retirement Statistics and reports startling findings:

A) 52% of Americans 55 and over have NO retirement Savings.

B) 48% that have Retirement Savings have a median amount of $109,000. This annuitizes to $405 a month.

C) 50% of Baby Boomers will be out of money within 10-20 years

D) The average Baby Boomer’s net worth is $34,760 with Income of $18,932.

These terrible facts have resulted in Seniors returning to the workforce in vast numbers distorting the employment statistics. Notice who is ringing up your groceries, stocking the shelves at the hardware store, or preparing your coffee. These retirees are not in the workforce for entertainment or to pass the time, they need to pay the electric bill, buy tires for the car, and pay for their prescriptions. In 2013, 9.6 million jobs had been recovered, 7.2 million went to those over 55. The trend has accelerated. Here is a Chart of age labor participation:

Retirees are Broke! The highest participation rate for 2017 is the 75 years old and up (10 years after retirement?) with a participation rate of 62%! Failure to plan is planning to fail. Those that planned have higher risks they may know.

There are so many Red Flags and Black Swans in the Global Economy; there should be none. Recessions are the final segment of the Business Cycle and they come with regularity. It has been 9 years since 2008; the cycle may be completing. Also, the average Baby Boomer’s wealth is parked in the Stock Market; typically 70% with 20% in Bonds. The regular, average Recession causes losses in Equities of 40%. At 65, you do not have time to wait for a rebound! A Recession is coming, no one knows when. What will happen to your Dreams, your Plans, your Security if you lost 40% or more? Still feel Wealthy? Still feel Secure?

It is not necessary to consistently place your Portfolio at Risk. In times of uncertainty, consider taking profits and going to CASH with a significant portion. Speak to your Financial Adviser about an Exit Strategy if the Market turns against you. Review your debt load and monthly obligations; reduce your costs. Consider other asset classes that do not correlate with Wall Street like very conservative rental properties managed by Professionals which will provide consistent, conservative Income for a portion of your portfolio. Remember to have fun, you earned it.

https://michaeldouville.com/retiring-wealthy-today-back-work-10-years/

 

Millennial Kingdom: Access to Wealth

Posted in Isaiah, Millennial Kingdom, Prophecy with tags , , , , , , , , on July 31, 2016 by paulthepoke

A future Millennial Kingdom will have abundant food and economic prosperity. Somebody is going to have to plant, harvest, clean, package, distribute, and prepare all of this food. Finding work will not be a problem. Agriculture and related industry appear to play a significant role during this time. People will be living longer and the population is expected to explode accordingly.

Isaiah 30:23 Then He will give you rain for the seed which you will sow in the ground, and bread from the yield of the ground, and it will be rich and plenteous; on that day your livestock will graze in a roomy pasture.

The Hebrew word for “bread” is lechem. It means: grain, food, or bread per Strong’s Concordance.  A farmer will plant the seed and many will harvest the crop. Grain will be stored, then transported for the production of food and bread. Look at the jobs created…farm equipment; roads built; construction; energy use and distribution; bakeries and bakers; grocery stores…you get the idea.

…the yield of the ground, and it will be rich and plenteous…The Hebrew word for “rich” is the adjective dashen. It means: a substitute for fat or vigorous. The Hebrew word for “plenteous” is shamen. It means: fat, rich, robust. There are going to be a series of bumper crops.

…livestock will graze in a roomy pasture. The cattle, sheep, goats and such will have plenty of room to roam and a bounty of grains and grasses to feed.

Jeremiah 31:12 They will come and shout for joy on the height of Zion, and they will be radiant over the bounty of the LORD— Over the grain and the new wine and the oil, and over the young of the flock and the herd;, and they will never languish again.

The people of Israel are described as “radiant” or nahar in the Hebrew. This could also be translated and described as to shine, beam, light, or burn.

They are excited because of the “bounty” or goods, property, fairness, beauty, joy, and prosperity that comes from the LORD. He is the source. This is the best. It is appealing to the eye as well as the stomach. Listed in the verse are grapes, grains (barley and wheat are the primary crops in Israel), olives and its oil, and herds of healthy animals with offspring.

…and their life will be like a watered garden…The Hebrew word for “garden” is the same word used for the “Garden of Eden”. That garden in Genesis was created in perfection by God. The grammar talks about a water saturated garden. This place is not struggling for hydration like the desert that is Israel today.

Isaiah 3:1-3 Societal Collapse

Posted in Isaiah with tags , , , , , , , , , on February 19, 2012 by paulthepoke

Isaiah 3:1 For behold, the Lord GOD of hosts is going to remove from Jerusalem and Judah both supply and support, the whole supply of bread and the whole supply of water…

Isaiah 3 is a judgment against Jerusalem and Judah (the southern kingdom of Israel). As an overview of the chapter, God initially takes away food and water from the city and nation. Next, God removes older and experienced leadership and replaces them with young, inexperienced leadership. Judgment against the women of Israel is pronounced due to their attitude of materialism. Lastly, the men of the society are killed by the sword of war.

The idea expressed in the Hebrew grammar of verse 1 is the entirety of supplies and provisions, a complete removal of bread and a complete removal of water. Wycliffe’s Bible Commentary has inferred this is possibly caused by drought. Utter famine and dehydration have fallen on Jerusalem and the southern kingdom.

Isaiah 3:2-3 The mighty man and the warrior, the judge and the prophet, the diviner and the elder, the captain of fifty and the honorable man, the counselor and the expert artisan, and the skillful enchanter.

Leadership is being removed from Israel. A lack of leadership is a judgment from God. That is a frightening thought when we look at the state of our country today in 2012. Do we really have leadership or are we run by polling, focus groups, or what’s trending on the internet?

The removal is regarding all aspects of society. The mighty man speaks to bravery. The warrior is military strength. The legal system is impacted with the removal of judges. Judicial fairness was not being executed and favoritism and bribes were the flavor of the day. Does this sound familiar? Essentially there was a complete breakdown of government. This is the ultimate outcome of society with a lack of leadership.

There is a removal of the moral and religious fabric of society. Granted some of these folks are false prophets, sorcerers, and diviners but they too are removed along with legitimate leaders. There was not Godly leadership in society. How does our culture view Judeo-Christian values in leadership in general?

Legitimate secular and corporate leadership were removed from the culture. Those who possessed wise counsel and advice were deleted. Technical expertise and a skilled labor force were no more. There were no people to build things. Manufacturing had dried up. Removal of work is judgment from God. What is our 21st Century society crying out at this time? Jobs, jobs, jobs. Does any of this sound familiar?

Arts and education were removed as well. In our case, this may not be such a bad thing. We have hundreds of channels to watch on TV: movies, music, shows, news, sports. Entertain me! The thing I hear more often than not, “There is nothing worth watching.” Our education system is crumbling and we continue to fall further behind the rest of the world in reading and math skills. Business leaders complain today’s graduates are not prepared intellectually.

Collectively, Jewish society of the past collapsed. Will we learn from history? Current trends are not favorable.

Isaiah 2:15-18 Ships of Tarshish

Posted in Isaiah with tags , , , , , , on February 12, 2012 by paulthepoke

Isaiah 2:15-18 Against every high tower, against every fortified wall, against all the ships of Tarshish and against all the beautiful craft. The pride of man will be humbled and the loftiness of men will be abased; and the LORD alone will be exalted in that day, but the idols will completely vanish.

The common thread with all of the items noted in the verses above is they are all man made. The high tower speaks to man’s sense of architecture and construction. Fortified walls are symbols of military power and engineering. The ships indicate economic strength and power. The artisans and their beautiful crafts will be destroyed. Idols reflect man’s religious system. Every aspect of humanity and his system will be wiped out.

Tarshish is a term and concept that is somewhat of a riddle. No one really knows for sure where Tarshish is. But there are some educated observations. Tarshish is a Phoenician word from the Akkad meaning smelting plant or refinery. The term is used in connection with ships, merchants, and trade (I Kings 10:22, I Kings 22:48). Phoenician boats used to sail the sea regularly transporting smelted ores from the mining towns in Sardinia and Spain. A Phoenician inscription from Nora in Sardinia from the ninth century BC refers to a tarshish, or smelting site, on this island. Smeltery fleets or tarshish ships hauled material from this and other mining stations in the western Mediterranean. Ships of tarshish were built by Jehoshaphat in imitation of Solomon. -New Unger’s Bible Dictionary

Ships of Tarshish: A term applied to large seaworthy merchant vessels able to make the voyage to distant Tarshish (probably Sardinia, and secondarily also Spain) -Wycliffe Bible Commentary

Tarshish or Tharshish = “yellow jasper”

A city of the Phoenicians in a distant part of the Mediterranean Sea to which the prophet Jonah was trying to flee. Jonah was directed by God to go east to Ninnevah. Jonah was headed in the opposite direction, west to Tarshish. Site unknown but perhaps in Cyprus or Spain.  A city somewhere near and accessible to the Red Sea to which ships constructed at Ezion-geber on the Elanitic Gulf on the Red Sea were to sail. -Strong’s Concordance

Some maps show Tarshish to be west of the Straits of Gibralter on the southern shore of Spain.

Isaiah 19:14-15 God Reviews

Posted in Isaiah with tags , , , , , , on March 23, 2011 by paulthepoke

The LORD has mixed within her a spirit of distortion; they have led Egypt astray in all that it does, as a drunken man staggers in his vomit.

As a point of review, it is the LORD who is making all of these events happen. The text tells how this is happening. The idiomatic language in the verse drives home the point. It is God who is pouring and mixing the distortion, perversion, and warping into the Egyptians. The country has no clue what it is doing.

Their actions are consistent with a drunk who staggers in his vomit. The Bible is not boring. It tells of people partying like rock stars 2,700 years ago. There were people back in the day who had tiger blood. I am sure some of them had Adonis DNA. The Egyptians dabbled in the occult (see Exodus with Moses and the plagues). Some of them were “warlocks” if you will. So those who boast of their partying prowess, sorry you are just not that fresh. The Bible reports there have been fools doing this for centuries. God practically and accurately points out this behavior leads to poor decisions and causes one to wander about.

There will be no work for Egypt which its head or tail, its palm branch or bulrush, may do.

More review from God. Unemployment is the reminder, no work. It does not matter who you are, what socioeconomic class one belongs, there will be no work.

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