Archive for economy

Signs of a Late Business Cycle… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on February 4, 2019 by paulthepoke

Luke 14:28-30 For which of you, desiring to build a tower, does not first sit down and count the cost, whether he has enough to complete it? Otherwise, when he has laid a foundation and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, saying, ‘This man began to build and was not able to finish.’

Jesus is offering advice on many levels with the verses above. First piece of advice is to “sit down” and have a plan. Second is “count”. One needs to know what they have. Third is have a “foundation”. The fourth is have enough to finish the plan.

Do you have a plan for your life let alone a plan for a house or structure? Where are we in the economic cycle? Do you have a plan for the financial times we live?

The economic slowdown continues. The home builder Pulte is slowing. Harley Davidson is selling fewer motorcycles. These are the signs of a late business cycle.

Check out Michael’s latest video entry with fresh up to date economic data.

Why would the Federal Reserve put interest rates on hold? Debt is spiraling out of control. Check out Michael’s comments below on the debt load around the globe.

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Michael is a syndicated writer for the Wall Street Greek. This is Wall Street quality research for free. Michael knows his craft.

Have a plan…

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Recession Reading Slowdown Worsening

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , on January 28, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 6:6-8 Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest.

January 2019: Countries around the globe are entering into Recession. Will it happen here? Prepare yourself for a slowing economy.

Updated economic data from the United States and global economies contained in the video below.

Listen to Michael’s latest global economic forecast


Michael is a national syndicated author for the Wall Street Greek.

Recession Watch, January 2019… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on January 14, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 15:21-23 Folly is a joy to him who lacks sense, but a man of understanding walks straight ahead. Without counsel plans fail, but with many advisers they succeed. To make an apt answer is a joy to a man, and a word in season, how good it is!

Recession has hit the western European countries of France and Germany. Social unrest and the yellow vest protests continue.

Asian countries Taiwan, South Korea, and China have entered into recession.

Debt is at risk…
Recession is hitting global markets, will it reach the US?

Michael’s economic calls have been on the money. He is a national, syndicated author for the Wall Street Greek. Great information available!

Turkey Wants the Greek Islands, January 2019

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , on January 7, 2019 by paulthepoke

The prophetic fulfillment of Ezekiel 38-39 draws closer.

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

For more evidence pointing to modern day Turkey, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

Will an unstable Turkey lead the global economic collapse? Michael Douville has been spot on with global economic calls for the past two years from bitcoin to real estate to the stock market. Check out Michael’s video.

Check out Michael’s economic analysis of Turkey and global implications.

Also, check out Michael’s 2019 economic forecast. Michael is a syndicated writer and author for the Wall Street Greek. This is quality research and it is free.

Proceed with Caution

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on December 5, 2018 by paulthepoke

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

There is an ongoing Housing Correction, a Global Slowdown and Turmoil in Iran, Russia and Turkey. Understanding these dynamics will help you navigate the future and not only survive but prosper.

Michael released this video about a month ago. Since then, oil has dropped to $53 per barrel. Housing starts continue to decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped close to 800 points at its last close.

Know the times we are living. Have an understanding. Have a plan. Know what to do.

Click the video link below for Michael’s 3 minute broadcast.

 

https://michaeldouville.com/

 

 

Time to Assess Vulnerabilities, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 22, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

ice berg douville

https://michaeldouville.com

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action!


Everyone is always amazed at how quickly the Stock Market can drop! The Stock Market declined 1300 points in 7 days! Oct 3, the Dow recorded a nominal new high; in a video, I suggested that would be an outstanding time to take profits. The adage “you cannot go broke taking a profit” certainly applies. More than profits, take at least half out of Harm’s Way and reduce Risk and Exposure. Back in February, when the Stock Market dropped 3000 points in just a few weeks and then stabilized, many analysis suggested the Market would recover to record a new high.

Indeed, there was a gap on the S&P near 2830 which further suggested a return to the old highs.

The market did recover and did make a nominal new high; perhaps a “Double Top? Only for a day! After 1300 points, the question now is will the Stock Market recover and again make another nominal new high or is the Top for this Cycle already achieved? The answer should not matter; as a baby Boomer, can we really take the chance? Can we assume the Risk?

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action! An assessment of Vulnerabilities should be conducted with your Financial Professional for your protection. By all measures, the current Stock Market has provided the participants with excellent returns; however, many metrics point to a vulnerable market. Although the current market may go considerably higher, there comes a time when Prudence demands thought; how much downside can be tolerated? There is Historic Margin debt financing the portfolios; leverage accentuates gains and creates tremendous profits in a Rising Market.

A Declining Market creates “Air Pocket” plunges as margin Calls produce stock liquidations usually at precarious moments accelerating the downside. At 65, 69, or 72 years of age and beyond, there is no time to recover losses. There is no “Long Run” left! Should a portfolio experience a 39.6% decline which represents the losses incurred in a typical cycle completion, how would your Life be affected? The market may be Vulnerable, are YOU?

There are times to be Aggressive; now is not one of them. Consider reducing exposure to Risk and increasing the Cash Flow component of your Wealth Portfolio.  Risk cannot be totally eliminated, but can be drastically reduced.  The recognition of change is a great advantage; there will be another Bull Market, it will just change asset classes. Consider accumulating very conservative rental properties in the entry level price range. Typically, there are very good opportunities close to everyone’s home. There are several strong growth markets across America that may provide conservative, consistent, cash flow for many years that may prove to be a “Lifeboat” for your Family and your Future.

https://michaeldouville.com

 

Old, Sick & Very Broke pt 3 of 3… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 21, 2018 by paulthepoke

Deuteronomy 28:12 The LORD will open for you His good storehouse, the heavens, to give rain to your land in its season and to bless all the work of your hand; and you shall lend to many nations, but you shall not borrow.

Deuteronomy 23:20 You may charge a foreigner interest, but you may not charge your brother interest, that the LORD your God may bless you in all that you undertake in the land that you are entering to take possession of it.

https://michaeldouville.com

Continuing with the theme of rising interest rates, bad things happen to Stocks as well.

Rising interest rates compete with the dividend rate of stocks. Currently, the S&P pays a total of 1.68% for annual dividends, but accepting market risk. Currently in June of 2018, a 1 year Treasury held to maturity pays 2.34% with almost no risk. That rate has risen from 1.22% just exactly 1 year earlier.  Further, Corporations have been the largest buyer of their own company stock. Executives have realized that by borrowing money to buy company stock, they can reduce the outstanding shares and thereby raise the per share return just by maintaining the same revenue. The Executives bonus is tied to increasing share revenue which increases their bonus share offering. Everyone wins; well the executives win!

The Real Estate turmoil should be contained as a correction in an ongoing Bull Market. It could be severe! It could be scary!

However, as rates rise, it is more difficult and more expensive to borrow funds earmarked for Financial Engineering so less and less buybacks will occur at exactly the same time Central banks are reducing purchases. Share prices are directly related to profits; rising rates will deteriorate those profits. As an aside, $4 Trillion in Corporate Bonds are due to be refinanced in the next 3 years; all will be at much higher rates. Higher rates cause costs of Production, Research and Development, and all CAPEX to rise squeezing viability. Just this one HUGE change should cause the hair on the back of your neck to rise; for 10 years, rates were basically ZERO. Now they are NOT!

Retirees hold 70% of their assets in Stocks.  Prices can go down much faster than they go up. In fact, they can plummet!  This fact has been ignored for years until a 3000 point drop in 2 weeks in February 2018. UH-OH! Wake Up! Historic Margin debt may be one cause of these sharp air pocket declines. Leveraging an Equity position is oh so fun as the market expands to new levels.  A reverse of trend will intensify and magnify the losses. Margin calls will force sales which forces prices down which forces sales. A very bad spiral.

Boomers have watched this Movie before; get out of the way! Take Profits! Remove some portion of the portfolio to safety.

Higher rates will impact the Real Estate asset class as well. Fewer families will be able to afford a home of their own as the Affordability Index is directly correlated to payment levels. Fewer buyers qualifying places pressure on prices. Property in overheated markets will be at risk. Luxury homes will become less affordable.  Already our neighbors to the North are experiencing declining sales in Toronto and Alberta. New York City is starting to feel pressure in the luxury condo market as new units come onto the market already crowded with existing units. The Real Estate Cycle is long; 18.5 years.  The last Real Estate Bubble scorched the Earth when it failed, but that was only 9 years ago. Too early for completion of that cycle.

However, the timing would be perfect for a Real Estate correction which typically occurs 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom.  Just as a reminder, the bottom was January 2010, give or take a few months.  Simple math places the Real Estate Cycle in the middle of the Jeopardy Period; perfectly matching the expected Epic completion of both the Stock and Bond Markets.

The Real Estate turmoil should be contained as a correction in an ongoing Bull Market. It could be severe! It could be scary!  It will be a Generational buying opportunity for those with vision and courage; also surviving Capital!!! Remember the Affordability Index that should start to close families out of the buying market. They will become TENANTS!!! Long term TENANTS!! Fortunes will be made!!! Not only huge Capital Gains as the Real Estate Cycle moves out of the correction phase, but CASH FLOW! Increasing CASH FLOW.  More revenue each year, growing earnings. If a little leverage is used, the tenants PAY OFF the Mortgage! Remember the Bengen Rule with 4% fixed for life depleting in 30 years? Throw it out!!! Not only will the rental revenue grow and grow providing more and more cash each month, but the loan is being paid off.  A simple 20% down payment becomes a 100% after 30 years; multiplying by 5 times!!! Rentals are easy! Rentals are Profitable! Rentals are run by Property Managers, NOT you!!!

Consult with your Professional about an Exit Strategy for the Stock and Bond Markets. Take Profits and preserve your Wealth! Move your assets into a different Asset Class that has a much longer horizon for Wealth and Income forever!!!

https://michaeldouville.com

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch & Bible Study

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