Archive for economy

It’s All A Big Party Until You Hit The Iceberg! Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on June 12, 2018 by paulthepoke

MichaelEverything seems great in the Stock Market but is there underlying instability. Michael talks about the state of the economy. Don’t miss this!

https://michaeldouville.com/blog/

Take provision for yourself as well as others. God speaking to Noah…

Genesis 6:21 Also take with you every sort of food that is eaten, and store it up. It shall serve as food for you and for them.

Good times do not last forever! Have a plan and prepare for a rainy day!

michael@michaeldouville.com

Listen to Michael’s comments in the video link below.

 

 

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Economic Tug-Of-War…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , on March 13, 2018 by paulthepoke

1 Timothy 5:18 For the Scripture says, “You shall not muzzle an ox when it treads out the grain,” and, “The laborer deserves his wages.”

Very good employment numbers came out today, over 300,000 new jobs were created in February 2018. However other numbers came out indicating the economy might be slowing down.

 

Michael

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line.

 

Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com

 

As Good As It Gets…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , on February 5, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 21:5 The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty.

Michael

Are we headed toward a recession? Many economic indicators are going down. Don’t be caught on the wrong side of a downturn. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat?

Michael Douville has been writing about a coming stock market down turn since the Summer of 2017. For those following the blog, Michael has been talking about a market correction for at least the last 8 months. Math don’t lie!!!

The link below was originally posted on 1/31/18 before the recent losses in the stock market. He is not piling on to the “short” band wagon.

Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Check us out at https://www.michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Contact Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Homelessness is Rising in America…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , on December 14, 2017 by paulthepoke

Matthew 25:34-40 Then the King will say to those on His right hand, ‘Come, you blessed of My Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world: for I was hungry and you gave Me food; I was thirsty and you gave Me drink; I was a stranger and you took Me in; I was naked and you clothed Me; I was sick and you visited Me; I was in prison and you came to Me.’ “Then the righteous will answer Him, saying, ‘Lord, when did we see You hungry and feed You, or thirsty and give You drink? When did we see You a stranger and take You in, or naked and clothe You? Or when did we see You sick, or in prison, and come to You?’ And the King will answer and say to them, ‘Assuredly, I say to you, inasmuch as you did it to one of the least of these My brethren, you did it to Me.’ 

Michael

Homelessness is rising in America. It is going to be worse; much worse. Over 400 “Tent Camps’ have sprung up in the Seattle Area, people are sleeping along walkways, under overpasses, and throughout urban parks; anywhere that might offer a degree of shelter and safety. Over 168,000 people are estimated to be Homeless along the West Coast. In September 2016, almost 58,000 New Yorkers slept in the 5 Burroughs shelters just one cold night. Over 50% of Public School Children qualify for the School Lunch program providing Breakfast and Lunch; often, the only food the children will receive for the day. Indeed, 47% of Americans report feeding their family is a daily concern. Over 1.5 Million American families supplement their diets with visits to the local Food Banks which are already feeling the pressure. These Americans did not start out Life dreaming of Homelessness as a Life Goal. They did not Prepare, they did not Plan.  How many Americans are 1 or 2 paychecks away from living under the Bridge?

The data and charts show that huge numbers of Americans are living well beyond their means. As the availability of Credit at low teaser rates has been expanded, many, many families have indulged in artificially raising their Living Standard by going into debt to supplement their Income; going into massive debt to buy unnecessary things and keep up appearances.

Obviously the counter trend of massive personal debt is an extremely low Savings Rate. Once the Credit Lines have been maximized, misery sets in as years of paying for past indulgences lies ahead. Credit Cards, Auto Loans, School Loans, and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) doom the debtor. Surveys reveal 46% of Americans cannot even afford $400 in Cash for an Emergency. When all of the Reserves are gone, any calamity jeopardizes the Family.

The Economy has not yet turned down, but some forecasts are indicating it may soon. There may still be time to build reserves, pay off debt, and cut expenses. Should a Recession arrive, and it is inevitable that it will, Income and Revenues will be endangered. Survival will be paramount; survival for those with Capital will build Fortunes. Those that have purchased Income Producing Assets will benefit from the climatic changing Economic Environment and have built their “Lifeboat” will fair much better than those that are over-leveraged and debt laddened,

Economic Turmoil is coming, it is not IF, but WHEN. The Cycles of Real Estate and Commodities will supplant the Aging Cycles of both Stocks and Bonds. Those that take heed and Prepare their Finances will weather the Economic Storm, Protect their family, and have the Opportunity to build Generational Wealth in just a few short years. Those that do not heed or prefer to do nothing, will SUFFER. Perhaps the last of the credit line should be used for Camping Equipment!

 

The Other Side of the Peak…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 9, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelProverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear and increase in learning, and a man of understanding will acquire wise counsel…

From the lows in March of 2009 to the lofty levels of today, by any metric, the Stock Market has done extremely well. Hardly anyone caught the very bottom, but even those that came close have doubled or tripled their investment; very well done! Lucky Investors have ridden the S&P and The Dow up to 2582 and 23,517 respectively and the ride UP has been FUN! Please pay very close attention to this chart, the Other Side is a completely different World. The higher the Peak becomes, the steeper the Other Side! There is no Plateau!

In order to preserve the Gains, a Courageous decision MUST be made; when to EXIT! Greed dictates grabbing every extra dollar one can; Prudence cautions that it is not what you make, but what you keep that counts! The climb to the Peak is exhilarating, even intoxicating. The Fall is depressing. Unfortunately, typical Human fashion,  the average Investor believes that the “Peak” will be recognized and they will escape in plenty of time to capture the Maximum gains. This “Time is Different” always becomes the Mantra! The brutal lessons of History teach that most Investors ride the wave up and then ride the wave down; this time the Fall may be devastating. The Central Banks of the World have exaggerated the Bubble with their Trillions of Dollars of Liquidity. The Federal Reserve has stated they will begin removing liquidity the 4th Quarter of 2017 at the rate of $10 Billion a month growing to $510 Billion withdrawn in 2018. The World Central Banks have pledged to reduce their liquidity injections from $2 Trillion annually to ZERO by April 2018.

Without Global Central Banks participation Risk will rise substantially. The Doctrine of Enough (or How Much do I Need?) prescribes taking the profits gained and moving to another Asset Class; reducing risk. Bonds have traditionally been the choice of risk adverse Investors. However, the Debt Binge of most Government Entities as well as many Corporate Entities make Bonds as risky or maybe even more so than Equities; this Asset Class should also be avoided.  Precious Metals and the larger class of Real Assets and Commodities are just starting to bottom after years of decline; the process has not yet completed. They are at or near the lowest values in decades.

Recognizing the coming shift in Cycles is not easy. However, the basic industrial components such as Iron Ore, Copper, Lumber, Oil,  and Aluminum will soon cycle off their bottoms. These are the components of Single Family homes which as the raw materials rise, house prices will also rise. Housing unlike Gold has a “Use Factor” of “Shelter” and is a necessary component of Life. Accumulating Single Family homes and providing “Shelter” by leasing them to families may not only transfer profits from an aging, riskier asset class to an emerging class, but also provide conservative, consistent, and monthly Income to weather an Economic Storm.

Maricopa County in Arizona is still ranked as one of the best long term Real Estate Markets in the Nation. Your Core Real Estate Lifeboat may provide Generations of Wealth and Income.  Our website is https://michaeldouville.com and our first consultation is always free.

 

Buy at Amazon.com in paperback or Kindle below. Click on “Preview” for a free sample of the book.

Rapture compressed

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/731160

Also available online at Barnes & Noble, iBooks, Kobo, and Inktera

Good Times Do Not Last Forever…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 14, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelLuke 12:15 Then He said to them, “Beware, and be on your guard against every form of greed; for not even when one has an abundance does his life consist of his possessions.”

A Tourist on vacation in Las Vegas can pick up the dice at the Craps Table and start a winning streak. Throwing the dice to win 5 times in a row and the casual gambler is becoming convinced the “House” will be paying for a Steak Dinner and a nice bottle of wine. Win 7 times and the Vacation is paid, 9 times and the Kids’ College can be funded, and in just a little more time, the casual gambler is now a “Pro” on his way to “breaking the House”. Just one more throw of the dice to complete “Financial Freedom”. A great Plan until it no longer works; disaster, catastrophe, an unforeseen calamity! All of the Cocktail Waitresses, Dealers, and Pit Bosses knew the streak would end; they had seen it many times before. In the Casino on Wall Street, the Dealers have seen this before; three Stock Bubbles in 20 years. Just like in Vegas, you have to know when to quit!

The signs have been there for quite a while; P/E’s over 30, Historic Margin Debt, declining Commercial and Industrial Loans, Technicals of Advance-Decline and 200 day Moving Average deterioration are signaling a tired and aging Stock Market. Further, historically, Stock Markets last about 85-90 months; this one is very old at 103 months. Just a little longer; everything is Awesome! Until it’s NOT! Greed can overcome Prudence and it is Prudent to pay attention and maybe take some Profits! The Pit Bosses and Dealers will not tell you when it is time to leave; they want your money to remain in the Casino. The true Winners know to walkaway when you are up.

The cycle for the Stocks is historically about 7.5 years; the best gains are often at the very end. Is the Trump rally signaling a potential End? Since Election Night, the Stock Market has gained 15%; almost straight up without even a pullback. Perhaps simply re-arranging assets could protect the portfolio. Accumulating assets with Cash Flow components that mitigate Economic Stress and transitioning into asset classes with longer cycles can be safer from catastrophic declines. Conservative entry level single family homes rented to credit worthy families can be a careful Strategy with consistent Income to mitigate any Economic downturn and allow one to sleep well at night (SWAN). Charts for US Real Estate project 7-9 years before the start of the cycle’s completion. Plenty of time to accumulate a strong portfolio for future profits while providing monthly Income to fund Cruises to the South Pacific or pay bills if the Business Cycle slows. Residential Rentals have a Use Factor; they are a necessity like Food, Water, and Shelter and may be a Lifeboat in an Economic Storm.

Check out our website michaeldouville.com for more blogs, videos and Michael’s new book – How To Create A Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income.  The first consultation is always free!

How to Make HUGE Profits without even Trying!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on October 4, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelMatthew 16:2-3 He answered them, “When it is evening, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.’ And in the morning, ‘It will be stormy today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times. -Jesus

Fortune 500 firms have had a few very good Quarters: sell product in Euro’s, Pounds, Yuans, Kronas, Swiss Francs, and even Rubles then convert them to US Dollars! Sheer Genius! An explosion in profitability without any improvements in Productivity, Innovation, or the time honored increases in Plants and Equipment! No additional employees are needed that would affect the profits; just devalue the US Dollar. Consider the fact that the beginning of the year, the US Dollar Index fluctuated between 102 and 103 and now is hovering around 93; a decline or devalue of 9.7% The Euro stood at 105 January 1st of this year and as of Oct 1, 2017 it is 118; a gain or strengthening of 12.3%.   What this means is Ford can sell a car for $30,000 Euros and convert to US Dollars with a Year-Over-Year gain of better than 12%: Genius! All of the multinational firms which are most if not all of them are experiencing this phenomenon! The Equity Markets are up 15% YTD, the US Dollar has devalued 12%. Could there be a Correlation? Could the decline of the dollar force the Stock Market higher? Further, Economies outside of the US receive the added bonus of Loan Repayments repaid in much cheaper Dollars discounting the Debt! Everyone wins! However, everything cycles! The US Dollar cycle IS forecast to go much lower, but buckle up and hold on, not necessarily in a straight line and not necessarily for just a few months!

The Business Cycle is getting tired and the accumulation of Debt has been Historic. In tough times or perilous times, the US Dollar becomes the currency of choice creating demand; demand will raise the price which will have the opposite affect of a declining Dollar: Markets will drop and Economies stall. The Globe would be vulnerable to a Recession, which would enhance the race to the US Dollar. Debt would become more expensive and much more difficult to service, possibly precipitating defaults of weaker entities. Once started, the completion to the Business Cycle will finish; a brutal cleansing will take place. Those that recognize the Portends and Prepare will not only survive, but have intact resources to purchase Assets that may be discounted to levels that will not be available for Generations, possibly never again.

The completion of this Business Cycle could be very scary. It could affect millions of families. Business revenues could decline precipitously; many will fail. We have been through this before and will go though it again in our lifetimes; in each case Income was paramount to survival. Further, over-leveraged, debt burdened entities were the greatest at risk; there is still time to pay debt. Although there are no guarantees in Life, Good Times do not last nor do Bad Times; this cleansing cycle will give way to incredibly better times. There are many Top Analysts that expect the Dollar to eventually cycle to new lows over the coming years, which might cause the Stock Market to explode to much higher levels and Real Assets skyrocket to new levels creating Generational Wealth.

In the Great Recession, the rental portfolio was a Lifeboat providing consistent cash flow month after month even though the general Business climate was very poor. The paper cash value declined, but the Income fluctuated well less than 10% and the vacancy factor dropped, the maintenance factor dropped, the taxes and insurance all dropped mitigating the slight decline in Rental Revenue. The current Investment Horizon is a minimum of 7 years which should be well beyond any crisis and the goal is to catch the bottom of the Dollar decline and the peak of the current Real Estate Cycle. Please consult with your advisor, but please consider re-allocating a portion of your portfolio to very conservative, residential rentals for consistent monthly Income.

Contact us at 480.948.5554 or michaeldouville0@gmail.com.  Your first consultation is always free and check out our website for more information at michaeldouville.com. Michael’s book “How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income” is available on Amazon. Thank you.

 

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