Archive for economy

No Recession Narrative is full of Baloney! Who do you believe? Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 9, 2023 by paulthepoke

John 18:38 Pilate says to Him, “What is truth?” And having said this, he went out again to the Jews and says to them, “I find no guilt in Him.

Who is most concerned about YOU? Do you trust the Federal Government to take care of YOU?

What you decide and what you start to realize, is going to make a huge impact on the way you survive in the Economy in the next 18-24 months.

Now, the Government and Wall Street would like you to believe we are heading toward a soft landing; that continues to be the narrative. Now, there are lots of advantages for Wall Street and the Administration. The Administration does not want to be blamed for a bad economy and bringing a Recession to our doorsteps.

What you decide is going to make a huge difference for YOU!

There has been a soft landing ONE time in history. That was in the 1990’s.

We are currently experiencing historic interest rate hikes. Pay off your credit card debt immediately. Raise cash if you can.

Wall Street gets paid on your money, assets under management (AUM).

Michael Douville sees a hard landing coming. Bankruptcies are increasing. Stores are closing around the country. Shipping box production is declining rapidly. Manufacturing jobs are in contraction.

Interest on government debt is heading towards $1,000,000,000,000 (trillion) per year.

The definition is the problem; what constitutes “Unemployed”? There are about 35.5 million working aged people who are not in the workforce. They are not counted in the 3.5% unemployment figures. What are these people doing? They are not working, and not disabled, not stay at home parents; what are they doing? If they would like to work, yet cannot find a job, then the unemployment rate is waaaay more than 3.5%. Further, how can there be a robust economy with that number of people idle.

Jobs Report: 585,000 full time jobs lost: 972,000 part-time added, and 118,000 new multi-job workers.

Liquidity (cash) is coming out of the market at a record pace. It looks like a Recession coming to me.

Germany is already officially in a Recession.

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Paul Volcker absolutely destroyed my Real Estate portfolio. He destroyed my Real Estate practice and I lost absolutely everything. I was a very young man; a product of the 1980 to 1982 double recession. When Paul Volcker stepped on the Gas and raised interest rates and literally destroyed my Business, my Real Estate practice, my holdings. I lost everything. Paul Volcker raised interest rates to the point where everybody stopped.

In Chicago, there were 60,000 Journeymen Electricians out of work, steel mills closed, Bethlehem Steel and Republic Steel, closed. Auto plants closed, retail was affected, construction was affected. It was awful. I lost virtually everything I owned…

Current Chairman Jerome Powell’s hero is Paul Volcker.

I know what can happen.

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Although Michael Douville and his affiliates take all reasonable care to ensure that the contents of this channel are accurate and up to date, all information contained on it is provided ‘as is.’

Michael Douville makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained on this channel.

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Unemployment & Brace For Impact, Recession! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Culture, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 8, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 6:6-11 Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest. How long will you lie there, O sluggard? When will you arise from your sleep? A little sleep, a little slumber, a little folding of the hands to rest, and poverty will come upon you like a robber, and want like an armed man.

What is the REAL Unemployment 3.7% or closer to 25%?

I am confused. The official Unemployment Rate is 3.7%. That means that 96.3% are working! The Economy should be robust! Yet, we see problems in the Economy, there is talk of heading into a Recession. However, Official Unemployment is only 3.7%; low unemployment is associated with a very good economy.

The population is 335M, 167M working leaves 168M unaccounted for. The 99.8M are working age, not in the workforce. There are still 68 million for under 18 and over 65. The calculations are by no means implied to be deadly accurate; more scratch pad math to account for what appears to be a huge discrepancy.

It would be very interesting for a study to determine how many jobs are full time and how many are working multiple jobs that may be counted more than once. I suspect that working even 1 hour a month might qualify as employed. The true situation may be worse.

The Federal Reserve Electronic Data System has so much information. A much better study would be very eye-opening! It would be very interesting to determine how many jobs are full-time and how many people are working multiple jobs that might be counted more than once!

Manufacturing has also declined for over 2 years and is now negative, negative 4.24% and yet we have only 3.7% unemployment. How is that even possible. With 3.7% unemployment, we should be in a robust economy, but we are not!

Bankruptcies are going up to levels last associated with the 2020 COVID Recession and the GFC Recession.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

Brace for Impact! Hard Landing says Federal Reserve!

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Brace for Impact! Looks like we are going to have a Hard Landing. Even the Federal Reserve’s own Economists are out with a report.

Those companies that are over-leveraged, firms in distress are likely to have an effect on Investment, Employment, and aggregate activity. Those firms that have been surviving on borrowed money have had their cost of Capital in the way of higher interest rates doubled, maybe tripled. This is going to put a lot of them out of business.

Are we following in the steps of Paul Volcker in the 1970’s? Jerome Powell thinks Volcker is a hero!

A Recipe for a hard Landing is Historic Tightening, the lag effects are 9-15 months, and we are just feeling them now.

We have Sticky Inflation. A good recession will kill inflation.

We have Banks in trouble, and they are tightening underwriting. Banks are losing reserves, losing deposits. Money supply is decreasing.

Manufacturing has entered a level of recession at 46.2. There is a severe drop in the need for goods.

The 10/2 year yield curve is inverted around 100 basis points or 1%.

Pending home sales are dropping. Prices will eventually decline.

Be aware of distressed metropolitans across the United States. Recovery may take up to five years. Crime is a result of the vacuum left by diminished occupancy of central cities and bad governance. As the Economy worsens, expect increased crime and social unrest. We can also add expect increased taxes as municipalities lose vital revenue.

Consumer credit card debt is exploding.

Michael’s comments on the hotel, Airbnb crisis:

In these cycle completions, all of the excesses are removed. Over-leveraged, over-optimistic, and under-capitalized Speculators usually realize losses. The larger the excess, the larger the losses. I am assuming the short-term rental owners will have a reality check soon, No one knows for sure, but the number floating around here in Scottsdale is 4200 units. The demand for them has fallen significantly, but the cost of ownership remains. When the Hotels start to reduce rates, the end is near for the novice. Not only is the market going against them, but many municipalities are stepping in with regulations. Neighbors hate the party house next door!

This Week in Prophecy: Sudan, Locusts, Putin & China, Flooding in FL, DE dollarization, Lawlessness, & COVID’s Over

Posted in #PaulthePoke, China, Culture, Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 15, 2023 by paulthepoke

On This Week in Prophecy…

Ezekiel 38:5 Persia, Cush and Put with them, all of them with shield and helmet…

Ezekiel states Russia, Turkey, Iran and allies are prophesied to invade Israel (Ezekiel 38-39). Arguably, Sudan may join Magog (modern day Russia) in their invasion of Israel at some point in the future.

Fighting has broken out in the capital of Khartoum, Sudan. The Sudanese army has engaged with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The RSF has claimed to have captured Egyptian military forces.

Violence is spreading throughout the country.

As of this report, fifty seven civilians on the ground have been killed. Air travel to Sudan has been stopped. A passenger plane has been hit by a projectile. Two people aboard the plane have been killed.

The World Food Program has stopped services after three staff were killed.

Sudan’s Joint Chiefs of Staff says that there will be no negotiations or dialogue before the dissolution of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). – Reuters

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-65285254/page/2

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/live/sudan-clashes-gunfire-explosions-khartoum

The Rapid Support Forces control 90% of the military areas in Sudan. -Sky News Arabia

Remember, Sudan is a member of the Abraham Accords with Israel.

Genesis 2:13 The name of the second river is the Gihon. It is the one that flowed around the whole land of Cush.

This is the first mention in the Bible of the land south of Egypt. The Hebrew word is Cush. It is translated as Cush or Ethiopia in the biblical text. It is a land in the southern Nile River valley. This is modern day Sudan.

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Exodus 10:4 Or else, if you refuse to let My people go, behold, tomorrow I will bring locusts into your territory.

As Ramadan comes to a close… this happened. The Great Mosque in Mecca was inundated with locusts. There may have been a few cockroaches as well.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Chinese Defense Minister General Li Shangfu for a “working meeting” in Moscow. Russia and China declared “no limits” in their relationship.

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Daniel 9:26 Then after the sixty-two weeks, the Messiah will be cut off and have nothing, and the people of the prince who is to come will destroy the city and the sanctuary. And its end will come with a flood; even to the end there will be war; desolations are determined.

Fort Lauderdale, FL: This past Wednesday, 25 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours. The airport was closed and looked like a lake.

The event is incredibly rare. It has been viewed as a 1-in-1,000-year event.

“April is still considered the dry season in southern Florida with Fort Lauderdale averaging only 3.70 inches of rain for the month of April. The rainiest time in South Florida is from June through September.” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/state-of-emergency-declared-in-fort-lauderdale-as-heavy-rain-drenches-south-florida/1511926

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One World Currency and Economy

The DE dollarization Movement has begun and effectively started at the beginning of April, 2023. The clock towards Revelation 13 has begun ticking in earnest.

Revelation 13:16-17 And he causes all, the small and the great, and the rich and the poor, and the free men and the slaves, to be given a mark on their right hand or on their forehead, and he provides that no one will be able to buy or to sell, except the one who has the mark, either the name of the beast or the number of his name.

Brazilian President Lula was speaking at the New Development Bank of Shanghai, China.

“Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies? Who was it that decided that the dollar was the currency after the disappearance of the gold standard? Why can’t a bank like that of the BRICS have a currency to finance trade relations between Brazil and China, between Brazil and other countries? It’s difficult because we are unaccustomed. Everyone depends on just one currency.” Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President, Brazil.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/brazil-president-de-dollarization-lula-brics-nations-currency-china-yuan-2023-4

These are the 9 countries working to achieve DE dollarization: Argentina, Brazil, China, France, India, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa.

https://www.glennbeck.com/contributor/9-countries-topple-us-dollar

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2 Thessalonians 2:7 For the mystery of lawlessness is already at work; only He who now restrains will do so until He is removed.

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Luke 21:11a There will be great earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences. -Jesus

President Biden has declared COVID to be over…

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/legislation/2023/04/10/bill-signed-h-j-res-7/

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https://www.amazon.com/Paul-Lehr/e/B09W8FB77N

Michael Douville With… Charles Nenner: The Whole System is Shaky! Will the Fed Raise rates?

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 21, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Michael Douville and Charles Nenner discuss the latest in economic and market news. What’s coming next. Dr. Nenner is one of the world’s best when it comes to economic cycles.

What an amazing interview.

Charles Nenner believes the current Banking Crisis will resolve itself for a short time only. The Banking Index will rise for a “Bounce” only. Charles believes the Whole System is ready to go under.

We need to make plans.

One of the 3 strategies would be trading. This is not a “Buy and Hold” environment.

Charles also believes Inflation will start up again after May.

We are in for a “terrible” time. Charles’ War Cycle and Civil Disruption are turning up.

It is time to be cautious. Build cash reserves. Hold some cash at home, and when buying physical gold, take possession.

Click on the link below for the interview and video. You can’t afford not to listen…

Learn how Charles Nenner’s unique research can help you get better experience for your future investments: https://www.charlesnenner.com/ 

Sign up for a FREE 30-day trial today!

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

Boom to Bust in 2024… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on March 7, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

I think we have a major recession coming. I have been talking about this for a long time. These recessions do not start tomorrow, there are signposts along the way. The signs have not changed the Recession is coming, it’s coming, it’s coming.

We have talked about this since March of 2022. You have had plenty of time to get your house in order: Build cash reserves, get out of debt.

It takes 8-15 months for the rate increases to be felt; it’s called the Lag Effect. I think we have an Economic Bust coming.

We have had a Boom. In 2020, the Pandemic came along and scared everyone. The economy went in the tank.

The policy response was to pump $ trillions into the Economy; $10 Trillion just here in the US. Central Banks around the world added another $10 Trillion which caused the Inflation Monster.

Liquidity is drying up. Quantitative tightening is happening. Countries around the world are struggling to pay their bills. This is not a third world problem. Even Switzerland is running out of cash. How long before bubbles start to pop?

Appreciation of Home Prices Nationally are slowing and will soon be negative. States like California, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey will suffer more due to the difference in Population Migration. San Francisco has already lost 35% in value. This will be a national issue. Florida, Texas, and Arizona offer the best investment returns.

Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.

https://michaeldouville.com/

The Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on February 11, 2023 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him.

In the Business World, Love does not make the World go round, it is LIQUIDITY that makes the world go round. Without liquidity, the Business World slows. The quicker it is withdrawn, the quicker we head into Recession.

Between March 2020 and March 2022, the Treasury and The Federal Reserve added $10 Trillion. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think Inflation may appear? Well now the “Powers to be” are removing Liquidity at a startling rate.

Places like Sri Lanka, and Lebanon are encountering civil disruption because food and fuel cannot be purchased. Even the Swiss National Bank has received a cash infusion from the FED.

The Inverted Yield is rivaling Paul Volcker’s era and the Fed is not through yet. The cost of Capital has doubled or tripled.

I believe the Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession.

Caution is advised.

Take Heed! Charles Nenner, Paul Lehr, and Michael Douville discuss the Markets and End Times!

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on December 28, 2022 by paulthepoke

The conversation was 2 hours long: amazing, candid, tying Old Testament and New Testament Biblical Prophecy to the current Geopolitical and Economic problems of today. This is the economic portion… LOL!!! Only 20 minutes.

If there is enough interest, I will publish the remainder.

Charles Nenner has been Head of Proprietary Trading at Goldman Sachs. Dr. Nenner was an Advisor to President George Bush. He is often a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg. In this video, Nenner discusses his Cycle Research with Paul Lehr.

Paul Lehr is a Biblical Scholar. He is author of a series of books including the Rapture, The Bride Redeemed. Paul is a contributor to GodInANutshell Productions. Paul Lehr is the Host, Editor and Publisher of www.PaulthePoke.com.

Photo: Wikipedia

Charts for a possible, sudden stock crash are shown in an overlay of the current S&P Index and the 1929 Crash. Charts are tracing out the same pattern. Is a Crash Imminent? Maybe, the economics are deteriorating.

How do the Economic and Geopolitics of Dr. Nenner’s work align with Biblical Prophecy?

https://michaeldouville.com/

This was an amazing and candid 2-hour discussion that does not lend itself well to editing for YouTube. If there is additional interest, please leave a comment.

For a free 30-day Research Newsletter from Charles Nenner: www.charlesnenner.com.

For books authored by Paul Lehr… https://www.amazon.com/Paul-Lehr/e/B09W8FB77N

Market Overview with Michael Douville & Dr. Charles Nenner, December 2022

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 13, 2022 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear, and will increase learning; and a man of understanding shall attain unto wise counsels…

Charles Nenner and Michael Douville discuss the results of Nenner Research.

Bitcoin is discussed and how regular the cycles are clearly delineating the top and bottom creating excellent trading opportunities. Charles’ forecasts are reviewed as well as over 200% in Crypto gains versus an asset loss of 82%.

Bonds are indicating lower rates for a a short time which gives an opportunity to sell property, or refinance.

Charles also is predicting a very difficult economy with social upheaval and geo-political problems.

Time got away from us! This is a little longer than usual, but full of very good and timely information.

Click on the audio/video link below for mathematical analysis, data, and commentary. This video is loaded with content and economic information. Now would be a good time to listen!

Watch the latest interview of Charles Nenner with Michael Douville where they discuss:

1️⃣S&P

2️⃣Problems in the economy

3️⃣Recession, Inflation & Bear Market

4️⃣Gold & Silver

5️⃣Commodity index going down

6️⃣Bonds, Fed Funds & 10-year Treasury

7️⃣Bitcoin & Crypto Currencies

8️⃣Lumber, Lennar & Copper

9️⃣Crude oil is down until the end of the month

🔟Dollar cycle, War Cycle & Social unrest.

📌Learn how Charles Nenner’s unique research can help you get better experience for your future investments: https://www.charlesnenner.com/ 🚀Sign up for a FREE 30-day trial today!

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

No Confusion, A Severe Recession is Coming! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , on October 13, 2022 by paulthepoke

Deuteronomy 15:1-2 At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the LORD’S remission has been proclaimed.

The “Seasonally Adjusted” employment numbers came in higher than expected. This will virtually guarantee another Fed Rate Hike into an already struggling Economy. Manufacturing jobs are decreasing. Job openings are decreasing.

Chicago PMI is below 50 to 45 indicating contraction. Orders for manufacturing are slower. Dr. Copper is dropping indicating a recession is coming. People are taking on more consumer debt with credit cards.

European inflation is over 10%. The cost of energy continues to increase. The Euro is under pressure and declining in value.

In a previous video, I mentioned hiking into a declining economy has always resulted in a Recession. If the Fed hiked in September, I expected a Severe Recession; further hikes will result in further deterioration of the Economy into something that may be much worse that a Severe Recession!!!!

Mortgage applications are at a 25-year low and in Phoenix, there are already rumors of staff cuts at local lenders. Get ready for a phenomenal buying opportunity; not yet but coming.

Dr. Charles Nenner believes there will be a bounce in the Equity and Bond Markets too. He looks to late October into November for the bounce. Be nimble and quick, it is just a bounce in the markets.

https://michaeldouville.com/

The Federal Reserve has it all under control (sarcasm).

Inflation will no longer be a concern in the coming months. Is inflation peaking? Food, energy, and housing inflation continues to rise.

Your Job is going to be your concern. The Federal Reserve is using the Strategy of Demand Destruction to control Inflation. They know that Severe Recessions KILL Inflation. It also kills jobs, and Businesses, investments, futures…

Real wages are decreasing. People have less money.

More Interest rate hikes are likely to come. Pay off your debts. The cost of money is going up.

It may be awhile. At some point, opportunity is coming. Be prepared and ready!

Nowhere to hide! Uh-Oh! Michael Douville & Charles Nenner

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 21, 2022 by paulthepoke

Isaiah 46:10 Declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times things which have not been done, saying, “My purpose will be established, and I will accomplish all My good pleasure.”

Isaiah 14:27 For the Lord of hosts has planned, and who can frustrate it? And as for His stretched-out hand, who can turn it back?

Dr. Charles Nenner reviews some major markets including the Goldman-Sachs Commodities, the DBB ETF for Base Metals, the Proprietary graph for Copper, Corn, Wheat, Gold, Silver, and Natural Gas. All showing weakness… there is nowhere to hide.

Rule #1, Don’t Lose Money!

Follow the math and do not listen to the media.

Cash is king. The US Dollar is strong and gaining.

Photo: iStock

Dr. Nenner says a significant recession is coming. The economy is getting weaker. Brace yourself, this may take awhile. Nenner discusses the likelihood of a significant stock market correction. Would you believe a Dow 5,000 target scenario? The average recession costs American’s 40% of their portfolio.

Commodities are rolling over in the short term. Inflation appears to be slowing. But watch out. Eventually, prices are going higher again towards the end of the year.

What does Dr. Nenner’s work say about gold and silver? The BIG bull market is coming, but when? Be patient and wait for the right opportunity to go long and buy. Listen to Dr. Nenner’s commentary and analysis for details.

Interest rates have turned and rates are going up. We are witnessing a significant cycle change according to Nenner’s research.

Wheat prices appear to be on the cusp of turning up again.

Energy prices are discussed in this video. Oil and natural gas are significant considerations to our pocket books.

Dr. Nenner recommended to go into cash around the first of the year 2022. If you had listened to Nenner’s research and recommendations, your retirement account and stocks would have been spared a 20-30% reduction.

Don’t fight the cycles…

Click on the audio/video link below for mathematical analysis, data, and commentary. This video is loaded with content and economic information.

DON’T MISS OUT ON THIS OPPORTUNITY… Charles Nenner will be holding a Private Live Webinar where attendees can listen live and ask some questions. Attendance is going to be limited. This amazing opportunity to get a insiders view on the markets is scheduled for August 7th, 2022. Send your request to attend to info@charlesnenner.com. Details will be sent.

https://www.charlesnenner.com/

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

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