Archive for real estate

The Next Recession will be EPIC! Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 24, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3

1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

2b a time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted;
3b a time to break down, and a time to build up;
5a a time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together;
6 a time to seek, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 a time to tear, and a time to sew…

MichaelSomething has changed! A Global down turn is underway; it can be seen in the Industrial statistics, the”Yield Curve” Spreads, the Baltic Dry Index. The slowdown can be seen in declining  Home Mortgage Applications and increasingly higher Auto loan delinquencies;  much, much higher credit card debt with slower repayments. Not surprisingly, the Spring Real Estate market in many regions of the US are exhibiting slowing sales when Property sales should be seasonally expanding. These are all signs of an aging Business Cycle.

This happens in Free Markets; it happened in 2010, 2012, and a longer decline in 2015. Each decline was met with Global Central Bank interference in the form of massive Liquidity injections via purchases in the Equity Markets and massive purchases of all forms of Bonds and Debt Instruments. Maybe a not so “Free market”.

Something has changed! Instead of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), rates are rising! Instead of Massive Global Central Bank purchasing in a declining market, the Federal Reserve is actually selling! In April of 2017, the Central Banks were purchasing at the rate on $1.7 Trillion Dollars; tapering in April 2018 to an alleged big fat ZERO! The ECB is still caught supporting the European Markets as is the Bank of Japan for the Japanese Markets. The simple reason is that no else is willing to enter theses markets; no one entering at the current reduced and manipulated rates!

Something has Changed! Without the Financial Credit Pulse of coordinated Global Central Banks, Volatility and RISK have reappeared. The support has been removed and The Federal Reserve has announced not only are they NOT purchasing, but they are selling; $8 Billion Feb 5, 2018 alone. It is time to Pay Attention!!!

Recession-ahead

Your Wealth is at Risk! Americans 55 years and older  have a 70% of their Nest Egg in the Stock Market and 20% in the Bond Market; rising rates devastate Bond Funds! Those approaching retirement age are not “in it for the long Haul!” There is not enough time to recoup losses before the funds are needed.  There are times to be Aggressive and times to be Conservative; the Fed has transparently announced their intentions. This may be a time to be very conservative. In fact, one does not need to be fully invested 100% of the time. Without support, the Markets are free to act the way Markets are suppose to act. The next downturn could be EPIC!

Something has changed! Your Future is at stake! Now might be a very appropriate time to review your goals and concerns with your Financial Professional. Maybe an “Exit Strategy” should be developed with a goal to transfer into different asset classes.

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Advertisements

Tough Times Ahead…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on April 2, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 30:24-25 Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer…

Michael

Economic Indicators from around the world point to Tough Times Ahead. Learn how to prepare for them, especially geared toward Real Estate Investors.

Video was originally posted by Michael on March 8, 2018. He has been talking about a market correction since the summer of 2017…

 

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Living in Economic Extremes…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on February 27, 2018 by paulthepoke

Hebrews 11:7 By faith Noah, being warned by God concerning events as yet unseen, in reverent fear constructed an ark for the saving of his household. By this he condemned the world and became an heir of the righteousness that comes by faith.

What if Noah had not acted and had not prepared on God’s warning? One can believe God and not act accordingly…

Kentucky 2016 016

Do you have a life boat?

Author: Michael Douville

Trey Smith of God in the Nutshell Productions, author and documentarian, interviews Michael Douville, author, fiduciary and financial advisor, about the economy, stock market and debt.

The interview also has excerpts from noted economic experts like Harry Dent, Zero Hour author and business analyst; Jim Rogers, financial commentator; Peter Elindes, Stockmarket Cycles editor and publisher; Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Company founder and author; and Joe Needham, an investor.

They discuss a correction in the stock market of 40-50% and they also discuss that the US and the World have an unsustainable amount of debt.

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at  https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

 

 

Bubble Deflating? Have a Plan…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on February 19, 2018 by paulthepoke

Genesis 41:33-36 Now therefore let Pharaoh select a discerning and wise man, and set him over the land of Egypt. Let Pharaoh proceed to appoint overseers over the land and take one-fifth of the produce of the land of Egypt during the seven plentiful years. And let them gather all the food of these good years that are coming and store up grain under the authority of Pharaoh for food in the cities, and let them keep it. That food shall be a reserve for the land against the seven years of famine that are to occur in the land of Egypt, so that the land may not perish through the famine.”

MichaelWhat do you do with your money when the Stock Market is unstable? Is the Bubble Deflating? Michael talks about your options. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets? Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Click on the link below for video.

 

 

Have a plan. Joseph did. The good times never last forever.

Check us out at https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

Consider: Another Good Year For Real Estate…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , on January 16, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 14:15 The simple believes everything, but the prudent gives thought to his steps.

Michael

Consider these two items to change your investment thoughts: P/E ratios and Margin Debt! The Case Shiller P/E of 15.21 has been the average for years and years. It represents approximately a 6.6% annual total return of the S&P. As of January 8th, 2018, the Case Shiller P/E is 33.34 indicating an extremely high valuation; maybe an extreme overvaluation! Good times eventually end! In order to “normalize” to the 15.21 level, the S&P Pendulum would have to deliver a 60%+ loss. This time could be different, but the pendulum has never stopped at “Normal or Average” when the Cycle ends, but continues to the “Equal but Opposite” extreme delivering an 80-90% loss. Margin Debt, especially the current “Historic Margin Debt” facilitates the extreme by accelerating the downward move.

pic-1jpg

 

Margin Debt is magical when the market trend is positive and is an absolute Nightmare when the selling begins. Margin Stock Sale Requirements are set by the Investment House and once triggered, the margined stock is sold at whatever the market will bear, usually at a significant loss. Selling begets more selling and wild price swings can ensue; also crashes! The individual investor is often caught in a very bad and costly event. No one wants to leave the Party early! FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is notorious for clouding judgment regarding Risk! Rental Property in the growth corridors of America may provide even better returns at much less Risk!

Consider these conservative facts: Maricopa County, the Home of Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Chandler in Arizona has appreciated 3.98% per year for almost 35 years including the Great Recession when Phoenix became the Poster Child for Excesses! 3.98% does not sound like much, but consider this: Investment Down Payment is only 20%. Purchase a $200,000 rental with $40,000 down and the appreciation in the Rental Investment generated 19.9% gain in just a normal year! 2017 was a stellar year for Maricopa County with estimates of an average 9.8% appreciation. That $200,000 rental property is now almost $220,000 with a gain of 19,600. Remember that $40,000 Down Payment? In 2017, that $40,000 gained 49%!!!! As Income Investors, there is always cash flow that grows year after year, the initial rate has been at least 5%; that needs to be added! A Standard Year with 3.98% appreciation including cash flow and the return is almost 25%. There is more!!!

The first year Principal Reduction on a $160,000 mortgage, paid by the Tenant, is over 6%! Add that to the Return Mix and the rental property is returning over 31%. If the Investor qualifies for Depreciation, a $200,000 rental property will provide Tax Savings which can significantly vary from one Investor to another, however, typically another 4%+ is achieved. Add that to the 31% and in an average year, the cash flowing, cash flow growing Rental Property has returned 35%+!!!!!!

Consider the Risk! Consider Income growth! Consider Investment growth. Consider Maricopa County that receives 222 new residents everyday for part of your portfolio.

How to Make HUGE Profits without even Trying!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on October 4, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelMatthew 16:2-3 He answered them, “When it is evening, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.’ And in the morning, ‘It will be stormy today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times. -Jesus

Fortune 500 firms have had a few very good Quarters: sell product in Euro’s, Pounds, Yuans, Kronas, Swiss Francs, and even Rubles then convert them to US Dollars! Sheer Genius! An explosion in profitability without any improvements in Productivity, Innovation, or the time honored increases in Plants and Equipment! No additional employees are needed that would affect the profits; just devalue the US Dollar. Consider the fact that the beginning of the year, the US Dollar Index fluctuated between 102 and 103 and now is hovering around 93; a decline or devalue of 9.7% The Euro stood at 105 January 1st of this year and as of Oct 1, 2017 it is 118; a gain or strengthening of 12.3%.   What this means is Ford can sell a car for $30,000 Euros and convert to US Dollars with a Year-Over-Year gain of better than 12%: Genius! All of the multinational firms which are most if not all of them are experiencing this phenomenon! The Equity Markets are up 15% YTD, the US Dollar has devalued 12%. Could there be a Correlation? Could the decline of the dollar force the Stock Market higher? Further, Economies outside of the US receive the added bonus of Loan Repayments repaid in much cheaper Dollars discounting the Debt! Everyone wins! However, everything cycles! The US Dollar cycle IS forecast to go much lower, but buckle up and hold on, not necessarily in a straight line and not necessarily for just a few months!

The Business Cycle is getting tired and the accumulation of Debt has been Historic. In tough times or perilous times, the US Dollar becomes the currency of choice creating demand; demand will raise the price which will have the opposite affect of a declining Dollar: Markets will drop and Economies stall. The Globe would be vulnerable to a Recession, which would enhance the race to the US Dollar. Debt would become more expensive and much more difficult to service, possibly precipitating defaults of weaker entities. Once started, the completion to the Business Cycle will finish; a brutal cleansing will take place. Those that recognize the Portends and Prepare will not only survive, but have intact resources to purchase Assets that may be discounted to levels that will not be available for Generations, possibly never again.

The completion of this Business Cycle could be very scary. It could affect millions of families. Business revenues could decline precipitously; many will fail. We have been through this before and will go though it again in our lifetimes; in each case Income was paramount to survival. Further, over-leveraged, debt burdened entities were the greatest at risk; there is still time to pay debt. Although there are no guarantees in Life, Good Times do not last nor do Bad Times; this cleansing cycle will give way to incredibly better times. There are many Top Analysts that expect the Dollar to eventually cycle to new lows over the coming years, which might cause the Stock Market to explode to much higher levels and Real Assets skyrocket to new levels creating Generational Wealth.

In the Great Recession, the rental portfolio was a Lifeboat providing consistent cash flow month after month even though the general Business climate was very poor. The paper cash value declined, but the Income fluctuated well less than 10% and the vacancy factor dropped, the maintenance factor dropped, the taxes and insurance all dropped mitigating the slight decline in Rental Revenue. The current Investment Horizon is a minimum of 7 years which should be well beyond any crisis and the goal is to catch the bottom of the Dollar decline and the peak of the current Real Estate Cycle. Please consult with your advisor, but please consider re-allocating a portion of your portfolio to very conservative, residential rentals for consistent monthly Income.

Contact us at 480.948.5554 or michaeldouville0@gmail.com.  Your first consultation is always free and check out our website for more information at michaeldouville.com. Michael’s book “How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income” is available on Amazon. Thank you.

 

Return OF Your Investment!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on September 27, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelProverbs 27:12 The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.

There are times to be Bold and times to be Cautious. Everything associated with the US Stock Market is distorted! The Stock Market has reached all time record highs, but valuations seem to be overly stretched with historically precarious P/E ratios of over 30+. Current Corporate Profits are suspect due to the liberal use of Non-GAAP accounting procedures which give enormous flexibility to Earnings. In addition, Dividends have been paid with Debt rather than Profits and the use of debt is so pervasive that Margin Debt used to leverage stock purchases is now also at Historic all-time levels and will compound and multiply any downturn in prices. Further, Central Banks have for 10 years, relentlessly pushed the Global Stock and Bond Markets higher, but now are attempting to shrink their balance sheets. The Fed is starting to sell $10 Billion a month for the 4th Quarter of 2017 and will be increasing every quarter through 2018 resulting in $510 Billion of liquidity withdrawal. Removing the constant purchasing of Equities may introduce Selling Pressure creating the unwanted opposite effect.
Trees do not grow to the sky and cycles eventually turn. There comes a time to take profits and re-distribute assets to safer allocations. In December of 2007, Charles Nenner recommended cashing out of the Stock Market and remained out until after March of 2009 avoiding the horrific sell off. He has again recommended to be out of Equities since July 1, 2017 and recommends only “Small Units” that can be rented for a portion of assets. Bill Gross who was known as the Bond King because of his stature with PIMCO, has stated he does not like Stocks and does not like Bonds believing both asset classes are extremely overvalued and risky. Mr Gross recommended Real Assets such as Gold and Real Estate in August of 2016. Real Assets versus Financial Assets are now inverse to Financials having declined for several years; they now appear to have bottomed, but have not yet turned up.
 

As shown on the chart above, a new Commodity Cycle is due to appear. There are many reasons for an increase in prices; a declining US Dollar would be a good pick. Nonetheless, these cycles come with regularity and are inverse to the Stock and Bond Markets. As copper, iron ore, gold, lumber, and land increase, typically, stocks and bonds decline as higher commodity prices are the harbinger to higher interest rates and inflation.

To be Prudent, consider an exit strategy for any precipitous decline in the Markets or Economy. Should the Commodity Cycle begin, the building components of Single Family homes typically thrive causing Capital Appreciation in addition to the consistent monthly Cash Flow and Income. Due to the Hurricane damage in Houston and Florida, Maricopa County in Arizona should be considered as a prime market for investment.

Contact us at 480.948.5554.  Your first consultation is always free and check out our website for more information at

https://michaeldouville.com/return-of-your-investment/

Thank you.

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch

God in a Nutshell project

A Trey Smith project

%d bloggers like this: