Archive for economic cycle

Global Economics and Market (P)Review, June 2020… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on June 10, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Business cycles come and go. What goes up must come down. What goes down eventually comes up again. Where are we in the cycle? Major market forces are coming together and they will impact our future and world. Understand the times we are witnessing.

Michael Douville breaks down the global economy and how trends in the dollar and interest rates will affect consumers. We live in historic and interesting economic times. Opportunity is around the corner.

Michael has talked with Dr. Charles Nenner regarding the real estate market, his timing model and charts. Mortgage rates are discussed. How low will interest rates go? Is it time to buy a new home or refinance an existing mortgage? Where will the housing market be in the next 18-24 months?

Michael discusses the impact of the dollar relative to commodity prices. Is the dollar starting to top out? What happens if the dollar loses its value? Commodities and goods are going higher in price.

Countries around the world are broke and cannot pay their bills in dollar denominated debt. What happens if the dollar gets stronger? Debt gets more expensive. Over 100 nations have reached out to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial help.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

Created in 1945, the IMF is governed by and accountable to the 189 countries that make up its near-global membership. The IMF is a part of the United Nations (UN) system. https://www.imf.org/en/About

Make decisions now. Prepare and plan. Navigate through current and future economic trends.

Be ready. The explosive phase is coming!!!

Check out Michael’s comprehensive review and current standing of global markets, interest rates, currencies and more on the YouTube link below…

Michael Douville is an author and syndicated columnist.

Economic Webinar: Michael Douville, Charles Nenner, Walter Zimmerman, and Dave Ellefson, April 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 6, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Ecclesiastes 7:19 Wisdom makes the wise man stronger than ten rulers in a city.

Last week Michael Douville hosted an economic webinar discussing the current status of the global economy. The webinar lasts about one hour and is worth every second. Some of the world’s leading economic and market minds are included. For free Wall St. quality content, click on the link below.

https://www.amazon.com/Create-Estate-Machine-Retire-Income/dp/0996738517/

https://michaeldouville.com/

westusa.com

The real estate market and the 18 year property cycle were reviewed. Housing market analysis was provided.

Dr. Charles Nenner, one of the world’s leading cyclical economist and researcher, provided his latest information regarding the United States stock market. Nenner also mentioned his thoughts on the bond market. He believes corporate debt is junk and corporate interest rates are going higher. Nenner states the safer play is United States Treasury rates going down.

Michael Douville talks about the ramifications of a strong US dollar. Walter Zimmerman’s recent currency research is a point of emphasis.

http://ellefsonyouthmusicfoundation.org/

Megadeth’s bassist Dave Ellefson checks in and discusses real estate investment and execution. Ellefson is promoting free music lessons and his charitable website.

http://ellefsonyouthmusicfoundation.org/schoolsout/

We are proud to announce the #SCHOOLSOUT initiative, to give remote one-on-one mentoring sessions and music lessons via SKYPE, with legendary Rock and Metal artists, to students displaced from school activities by COVID 19 Restrictions.

Your instructors will be: David Ellefson (Megadeth), Dirk Verbeuren (Megadeth), Jimmy Degrasso (Ex-Megadeth, Alice Cooper), Ron “Bumblefoot” Thal (Sons of Apollo, Ex-Guns N’ Roses), Chris Kael (Five Finger Death Punch), Chad Szeliga (Black Star Riders, Walking with Lions), Chris Poland (Ex-Megadeth), Phil Demmel (Ex-Machine Head), and more to be announced.

Q&A section is provided at the end of the presentation.

How will this impact Investment Strategies? What are the implications for Foreign Investors? Where is a good place to invest? Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Silver, Real Estate (Good chart from Charles Nenner) What is the implication for interest rates. Will property continue to appreciate? Will rents continue to increase. Will net immigration continue? Is this a good time to sell? Is this a good time to buy? With Special Guest: Dave Ellefson

Dr. Charles Nenner Housing Update, Wall Street Blood Bath, March 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on March 9, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

One of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner has recently release his charts on the housing industry. Please keep in mind, this information was released before the onset of COVID 19, the coronavirus. This was also released before the Saudis and the Russians engaged in a price war in the oil markets.

Charles Nenner a World Class Market Researcher has sent me his chart of Lennar which he uses as a proxy for the US Housing Market. The chart shows a slowing until late in 2020. However, as a separate asset class this may be a great investment to earn excellent cash flow from a conservative investment.

Click on the link below for Nenner’s thoughts.

 

No one knows how badly the Coronavirus will affect the Global Economy or the Individual Family. However, the world is connected. Be prudent, take precautionary actions such as extra food, medicine, fever reducers, water, and additional cash at home. Discuss Financial exposure with your Advisor, review the asset classes.

Michael shared his thoughts a couple of weeks ago regarding the financial and economic impact of the coronavirus. These comments are more timely than ever. Click on the link below for Michael’s insights.

 

Today was a certified train wreck in the financial markets. Russia and Saudi Arabia have engaged in a war over the price of oil. The result was a crash in the price of oil. The price for a barrel of oil dropped 24% in a day. West Texas Crude settled at $31.13 per barrel.

The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were all off by over 7% today. Circuit breakers kicked in less than 5 minutes into trading and the markets were stopped for 15 minutes.

The 10 year treasury note closed below .5% or 50 basis points. The 30 year noted was below 1.0%

COVID 19 continues to grow across the globe. Italy has officially quarantined the population of the entire country.

  • 113,000+ infected globally
  • 4,000+ deaths globally
  • Italy approaching 10,000 cases
  • 112 countries and regions affected
  • 605 cases in the United States

 

Dr. Charles Nenner’s Thoughts January 2020 – An Interview with Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on January 20, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Dr. Charles Nenner

As one of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner shared his most recent research and discussed the Cycles of Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and the safer harbor for Income Investors, Real Estate.

As Dr. Nenner repeatedly states all things change. Good times end, Bad times end and everything cycles from Seasons to Interest Rates. 

The expansion is so old and so long many have forgotten that Business Cycles complete, they change! The Business Cycle transitions from Expansion to Contraction slowly, then all of a sudden.

Insider trading is at a record pace. Corporate insiders are raising cash. Warren Buffet does not see much value in the stock market.

Dr. Nenner sees government issued interest rates going down. Be wary of corporate bonds. There is a lot of junk out there!

Nenner looks for the dollar to get stronger. He also thinks gold and silver will perform well and appreciate in value. Some publications indicate Nenner is looking for gold to go to $2500 per ounce in 2020. It is time to be conservative and cautious.

For Dr. Nenner’s thoughts and commentary, check out the video below with Michael Douville.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Window of Opportunity to Refinance?

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on May 6, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 27:23 Know well the condition of your flocks, and give attention to your herds…

Be vigilant and protect your resources. The economic cycle appears to be winding down. The yield curve on interest rates has inverted. Position yourself now to grow your wealth. There is a window of opportunity to refinance. Michael discusses the next 12-18 months of the business cycle and how to position yourself for an economic slowdown. Michael also has a plan on navigating the business cycle once the slowdown is over. Do you have a plan?

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Put yourself in a financial position to be a lender instead of a borrower.

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Recession in Europe, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on February 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Recession may be starting in Europe!

Real Estate is an illiquid asset, tenants and leases and sales and marketing and escrows take time. The timing model clearly indicates slowdown and for over a year the warnings have been very clear. The slowdown is now fact and price declines are starting to become visible.


Europe is teetering on the edge of a Recession. A Recession with Historic Debt and non-existent Interest rates!


New data shows Central Bank Intervention in the Global markets; markets react quickly as seen in the  recent runup. However, the liquidity lag time for the general Economy is easily a few quarters and may be too late to avoid a Recession.

Economic indications indicate Italy and the Netherlands have entered into recession. How should we prepare for global economic recession.


Is the Powerhouse of Europe, Germany, heading into Recession? What will this mean for the United States?

Click on the video for German economic data

A Recession now could be EPIC! It also coincides with the Timing Model; the precursor to the ‘Explosive” Phase.


Recession Watch, January 2019… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on January 14, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 15:21-23 Folly is a joy to him who lacks sense, but a man of understanding walks straight ahead. Without counsel plans fail, but with many advisers they succeed. To make an apt answer is a joy to a man, and a word in season, how good it is!

Recession has hit the western European countries of France and Germany. Social unrest and the yellow vest protests continue.

Asian countries Taiwan, South Korea, and China have entered into recession.

Debt is at risk…
Recession is hitting global markets, will it reach the US?

Michael’s economic calls have been on the money. He is a national, syndicated author for the Wall Street Greek. Great information available!

Prepare for a Housing Correction

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on October 29, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

 

https://michaeldouville.com/

This is not good news. As you know by now, I have been in the Real Estate business for over 45 years and I have experienced first hand the effects of the Business Cycle and the Real Estate Cycle. My first experience with a Cycle Completion taught me to respect   the sheer and unforgiving power of the Cycle and I have been a Student ever since.  I will share what I have learned.

Michael Douville’s website

There is a Cycle to Everything; rain, drought, moon, eclipse, orbits, Sun Spots, and what I am concerned with today, the Real Estate Cycle. Edward R. Dewy, Phil Anderson, and several contemporary researchers have identified the 18.5 year cycle for housing.  The Great Financial Crisis and the bursting of the unsustainable Housing Bubble is an indelible period burned in many Investors memories.  The decline started really in 2007 and accelerated into 2008. My Home market is the Phoenix MSA ; one of the 4 most adversely affected markets in the Nation. I definitely remember! What is harder to pinpoint is the bottom of the trough as it becomes a process drawn out over several months. However, in the Phoenix MSA, bottom was achieved sometime in the very late 2009 to very early 2010. Virtually all of the troubled markets seemed to bottom  together. In my Conferences, I use January 1, 2010 as the turning point. Researchers and statistics indicate the Real Estate cycle is 18.5 years which places the next bottom July 1, 2028; in a perfect world. That is almost 10 years from now: so what?

Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk!

housingcorrection

The Real Estate Cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again. Cycle data in the US recorded as far back as 300 years; to pre-revolution!  Also repeating in the data is a period of vulnerability for a Housing Correction 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom. This corresponds to July 2017 to June 2019; the current time frame!  These corrections can be very vicious or relatively mild. My personal concern is for an Epic Correction.  When investing, these cycles become exit and entry points for Capital Deployment as well harbingers for Economic Distress for Real Estate Slowdowns seem to be always accompanied by a Stock, Bond, or Economic corrections which will affect jobs, interest rates,  Foreign Exchange,  and therefore businesses and families. Forewarned is forearmed. I have been warning about this vulnerability for 18 months; advising  to raise cash and reduce debt. Nationally, Existing Home Sales have dropped for the last 7 months and September sales plunged! Indeed, as an example, the very vibrant Denver Market experienced a 30% drop in sales across all price ranges in a 30 day period from August to September. Declining sales is the preview to declining prices. The Correction in Housing has probably begun!

This graph, courtesy of ECRI, clearly shows the decline.

Someday, the cause of the decline will be researched, but now coupled with the Housing Correction is a Global Economic Slowdown underway causing turmoil overseas and ravaging the Emerging Markets. The Slowdown had been recognized by very few and the effects have not become apparent in the US yet.

However, Ned Davis Research has released their recent findings with a 92% certainty that a Global Recession has already started or will very soon. Should a Recession arrive, employment and business will certainly suffer. However, Rental Properties actually improve. Cash flow from conservative rentals should provide a consistent Income Stream for you and your family. As buyers are removed from the Buying Market, the Rental Market actually improves as the demand for housing remains, but the ownership changes. A prepared Investor can actually make purchases at discounted prices and quickly lease them as demand for housing should remain.

https://michaeldouville.com/books/embed/#?secret=g2bRsyIha4

Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk! Baby Boomers should look for cash flow from more conservative assets as the typical Stock Portfolio loss from a recession is 39.6%; at my age, an unacceptable loss. A vicious recession can put stock losses in the 60-90% range. Certainly a game Changer!  Rentals should be assessed for tenant quality rather than maximizing Rental Rates. Mortgages should be reviewed for refinancing to fixed rate encumbrances. Core properties especially should be debt free or extremely low LTV’s to provide Income and act as a Lifeboat in any Turmoil. Protect your capital, Protect your Credit, protect your FAMILY!

https://michaeldouville.com/

 

 

The Rising US Dollar, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on July 7, 2018 by paulthepoke

1 Samuel 2:7 The LORD makes poor and rich; He brings low, He also exalts.

Proverbs 3:13-16 How blessed is the man who finds wisdom and the man who gains understanding. For her profit is better than the profit of silver and her gain better than fine gold. She is more precious than jewels; and nothing you desire compares with her. Long life is in her right hand; in her left hand are riches and honor.

Michael

The US enjoys the Global Reserve Currency status. Virtually all of the major business transactions throughout the world are priced in Dollars. Sovereign Wealth Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Funds, Corporate funds need to “Park” billions and billions of transactional cash! The ONLY currency liquid and vast enough is the US Dollar! Not Lire, Not Yuan, Not Euro, not the Yen, only the US Dollar. It is stable, safe, liquid and accepted around the World. International pricing expresses the transactional cost in US Dollars of oil, copper, grain, lead, tallow, butter, milk,  beef, etc. along with virtually all International agreements. The dollar does fluctuate, but pegging to the US Dollar standardizes Global transactions.

A weak US Dollar is good for the Global Economic community. The US Dollar was 102.21  October 1, 2016, just prior to the Presidential Elections. The World experienced “A cyclic upturn in a structural downturn” exactly as ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) forecasted.  The Dollar then declined to 88.25 in February 2018; which may have been a cyclic bottom.  A weaker dollar is good for Emerging Market Economies. Raw Material sales translate into more local currency which then can buy more local and regional  goods and services. Local inflation is reduced.  During the past decade, Sovereigns around the World have gorged on cheap loans priced well below 1%, some even negative. With a declining US Dollar, not only are the loans Historically cheap, a 20% decline in currency exchange equates to repaying only $80 million of the $100 million borrowed plus receiving a higher price for exports usually oil, copper, aluminum, etc.

money
photo: MarketWatch

Like all things, the US Dollar cycles. It does not remain cheap forever. Timing becomes important. The US Dollar has risen and risen very fast from a possible low of 88 just a few months ago to a recent high of 96. This cycle of peaks and valleys is not a new phenomena; this cycle repeats historically. What is new is the record DEBT pervasive throughout the World. Debtors have enjoyed the discount of a declining US Dollar; that is now gone. Interest rates at or near zero are gone in the US and scheduled to be gone soon everywhere else. Obscene amounts of DEBT have propelled the good fortunes of virtually everyone from Credit Cards and HELOCs for citizens to massive Public and Sovereign debt in EVERY Village, Hamlet, Town, City, Municipality, County, State and Nation on the face of the PLANET!!

 

A strong Dollar will reduce the value of exports thereby slowing the economy in exporting Nations. A negative spiral’s outcome is a slowing of all global economies. This then results  in declining demand that ripples throughout the World. That is bad enough; add in rapidly rising rates and there lies a recipe for Catastrophe! The obscene debt is rarely paid off, rarely even reduced. The debt is rolled over or refinanced. A rise to only 2% equates to multiples of 10 to 20 times the debt service. There is going to be  a very rude awakening very soon!

Debt will default and these defaults will accelerate throughout the world pressuring rates even higher as nonpayment risk pressures returns. Bonds and Bond Funds will be at HUGE RISK. All manners of Debt will be affected. Rates will rise and rise quicker than anyone anticipates. Get out of Debt! Payoff Credit Cards, Helocs, anything that floats with an Index. Refinance into fixed rate LONG TERM debt.  Raise cash!  The dollar cycle peak is forecast to reach 103.8 as a typical permutation in a typical cycle.  This may not be TYPICAL! Turmoil could drive the US Dollar to 120 causing massive disruptions!  For those aware, for those prepared, Generational Wealth can be achieved when the cycle again turns down……

https://michaeldouville.com

 

Time to Raise Cash…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Leviticus 19:35-36 You shall do no wrong in judgment, in measurement of weight, or capacity. You shall have just balances, just weights, a just ephah, and a just hin; I am the LORD your God, who brought you out from the land of Egypt.

Proverbs 11:1 A false balance is an abomination to the LORD, but a just weight is his delight.

Currency manipulation is global issue. The above verses are two of many examples provided in Scripture. All currencies are not balanced the same. Imagine that, the world’s economy is out of balance in regards to the standard of the Bible. All currencies are not created equal. There are global economic consequences when standards are out of balance and there is reconfiguration. God is not a big fan.

 

Michael

Many Researchers have been forecasting a rising US Dollar. This seems like an impossibility, but technical methodology from several different disciplines are coming to the same conclusion. A top researcher in March placed a 103.8 target from 88.1; currently, the dollar has risen to 92.46. Should the target be exceeded, a Spike could develop going much higher. The Dollar rose .7% on May 1, 2018 alone.  A strong dollar will pressure the repayments of debt across the Globe in an environment of struggling Municipalities, States, and Sovereign debtors. A stronger dollar will not only change the repayments dynamics, but the exports in Emerging Market Countries are affected as Commodities expressed in US Dollars lose value.

A stronger Dollar is enhanced not only by the perception that the US Economy will be stronger than any other, but also by the Interest Rate differential across the Globe and the avowed Federal Reserve policy of raising short term rates. Higher rates from both the Federal Reserve and the LIBOR affect 40-60% of all Global Debt; currently exceeding the 2008 Debt Record and now over $217 Trillion Dollars. Charles Nenner called the 10 year Treasury low at 1.6% in July of 2016. The trend line from 1981 has been broken at the 2.65% level and has now exceeded 3%; better than an 85% increase. With the trend line broken, rates could rise swiftly and approach 4.5% faster than thought possible. Normalization is occurring as Central Bank intervention recedes. Normal could easily be 5-6%; a double from here.

Prices in asset classes will be affected. Housing prices will be compressed as rates rise; Home buyers buy based on payments. Higher rates equal lower affordability; some Luxury Markets are already affected!  Equity prices will be affected as repatriated funds are reduced inversely with a stronger dollar. The US Dollar has depreciated 24% since the Presidential election. Take for example a US manufactured auto sold for 20,000 Euros in Germany in December 2016; the same car sold for 20,000 Euros in December 2017 netted the US Manufacturer 20+% more profit due to the Dollar decline; great news for Stock Prices. Bad news when the US Dollar rises; the same formula works negatively in reverse. Look for earnings to decline; stocks are correlated to earnings. Need I mention Bonds? Higher rates will decimate Bond values as well as higher rates will cause many more defaults across the Globe, again affecting the value of Fixed Income. Commodities will also be negatively affected by a spiking US Dollar as it will take fewer Dollars to purchase in local Currency as well as higher rates will certainly curb demand.

What to do? Everything cycles! Raise cash to purchase assets at lower US pricing. Research is indicating it will probably be a Spike; vicious, but not exceedingly long term. This will present HUGE opportunities for those prepared. Every Investor has personal goals. Review your portfolio and make the proper adjustments.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com

https://paulthepoke.com/category/michael-douville/

 

 

 

Paul the Poke

Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God

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