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Bitcoin Mania…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , on December 20, 2017 by paulthepoke

Psalm 119:72 The law of your mouth is better to me than thousands of coins of gold and silver. 

MichaelIt has taken almost 400 years, but according to Convoy Investments, Bitcoin has surpassed The Tulip Bulb Bubble, where even Sir Issac Newton lost his fortune, as the largest Financial Bubble in History.  Everyone wants to get rich! Everyone wants to be part of this phenomenon.  When queried,  there is a complete lack of understanding what Bitcoin is or can do. It is a “Store of Wealth”, however, you cannot go to Walmart and buy clothes or food with Bitcoin, nor can you fill up your car at the Gas Station. You cannot pay your mortgage,  health costs, utilities, or even buy a really good meal with Bitcoin! Yet, there is a rush to spend precious Investment Dollars, Retirement Funds, or worse yet, the Family “Nest Egg” in pursuit of the “Riches” to be made.

This will not end well! Wealth is not achieved by Speculating in the last stage of a spiking and crowded trade; that is a recipe for losses, HUGE losses.  Wealth is achieved by understanding the flow of the economy and attempting to purchase good assets early in their cycle. Purchasing assets that will appreciate as time goes on; investing long before everyone else recognizes the potential of your asset class.  Such opportunities present themselves a few times in your life. Certainly,  March 2009 for the Equities Market or Investing in Bonds after the traumatic ending of the Interest Rate Cycle in 1982 when short term rates broached 20%; resulting in  35 years of declining rates and rising Bond prices. Just these two illustrate that the time to buy is when everyone is selling and swearing never to enter that Market again.  Two possible considerations come to mind.

As China was saving the world in 2009-2012, Iron Ore, Copper, Aluminum, Timber, etc. were in demand and prices rose sharply; they have since fallen sharply. The rise of Commodity prices were also the result of the completion of the Commodity Cycle; typically a 15 year duration: 7.5 years up, 7.5 years down. The down cycle appears to be in the process of completion. No one wants to own Commodities!

Typically, Housing experiences a Mid-Cycle Correction in the 7.5 to 9 years from the cycle completion date. The last cycle would have bottomed and completed in mid to late 2009; the vulnerability stage would then be early 2017 to the end of 2018. A correction in this time frame would constitute a buying opportunity in an ongoing Bull Market. With both the Stock and Bond Market heading toward completion of their respective cycles, this “Correction” could be pretty “Scary”.  However,  the best price appreciation is generally achieved just prior to the cycle tipping point often resulting in a Price Spike. This event should transpire for Housing in the 2023/2024 time period also coinciding with Commodity Cycle. In order to benefit from both trends,  investing in cash flowing residential rentals in the high growth corridors of the US might be considered. One should always consult with your advisor prior to investing.

https://michaeldouville.com/bitcoin-mani/

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The Other Side of the Peak…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 9, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelProverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear and increase in learning, and a man of understanding will acquire wise counsel…

From the lows in March of 2009 to the lofty levels of today, by any metric, the Stock Market has done extremely well. Hardly anyone caught the very bottom, but even those that came close have doubled or tripled their investment; very well done! Lucky Investors have ridden the S&P and The Dow up to 2582 and 23,517 respectively and the ride UP has been FUN! Please pay very close attention to this chart, the Other Side is a completely different World. The higher the Peak becomes, the steeper the Other Side! There is no Plateau!

In order to preserve the Gains, a Courageous decision MUST be made; when to EXIT! Greed dictates grabbing every extra dollar one can; Prudence cautions that it is not what you make, but what you keep that counts! The climb to the Peak is exhilarating, even intoxicating. The Fall is depressing. Unfortunately, typical Human fashion,  the average Investor believes that the “Peak” will be recognized and they will escape in plenty of time to capture the Maximum gains. This “Time is Different” always becomes the Mantra! The brutal lessons of History teach that most Investors ride the wave up and then ride the wave down; this time the Fall may be devastating. The Central Banks of the World have exaggerated the Bubble with their Trillions of Dollars of Liquidity. The Federal Reserve has stated they will begin removing liquidity the 4th Quarter of 2017 at the rate of $10 Billion a month growing to $510 Billion withdrawn in 2018. The World Central Banks have pledged to reduce their liquidity injections from $2 Trillion annually to ZERO by April 2018.

Without Global Central Banks participation Risk will rise substantially. The Doctrine of Enough (or How Much do I Need?) prescribes taking the profits gained and moving to another Asset Class; reducing risk. Bonds have traditionally been the choice of risk adverse Investors. However, the Debt Binge of most Government Entities as well as many Corporate Entities make Bonds as risky or maybe even more so than Equities; this Asset Class should also be avoided.  Precious Metals and the larger class of Real Assets and Commodities are just starting to bottom after years of decline; the process has not yet completed. They are at or near the lowest values in decades.

Recognizing the coming shift in Cycles is not easy. However, the basic industrial components such as Iron Ore, Copper, Lumber, Oil,  and Aluminum will soon cycle off their bottoms. These are the components of Single Family homes which as the raw materials rise, house prices will also rise. Housing unlike Gold has a “Use Factor” of “Shelter” and is a necessary component of Life. Accumulating Single Family homes and providing “Shelter” by leasing them to families may not only transfer profits from an aging, riskier asset class to an emerging class, but also provide conservative, consistent, and monthly Income to weather an Economic Storm.

Maricopa County in Arizona is still ranked as one of the best long term Real Estate Markets in the Nation. Your Core Real Estate Lifeboat may provide Generations of Wealth and Income.  Our website is https://michaeldouville.com and our first consultation is always free.

 

Buy at Amazon.com in paperback or Kindle below. Click on “Preview” for a free sample of the book.

Rapture compressed

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/731160

Also available online at Barnes & Noble, iBooks, Kobo, and Inktera

Good Times Do Not Last Forever…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 14, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelLuke 12:15 Then He said to them, “Beware, and be on your guard against every form of greed; for not even when one has an abundance does his life consist of his possessions.”

A Tourist on vacation in Las Vegas can pick up the dice at the Craps Table and start a winning streak. Throwing the dice to win 5 times in a row and the casual gambler is becoming convinced the “House” will be paying for a Steak Dinner and a nice bottle of wine. Win 7 times and the Vacation is paid, 9 times and the Kids’ College can be funded, and in just a little more time, the casual gambler is now a “Pro” on his way to “breaking the House”. Just one more throw of the dice to complete “Financial Freedom”. A great Plan until it no longer works; disaster, catastrophe, an unforeseen calamity! All of the Cocktail Waitresses, Dealers, and Pit Bosses knew the streak would end; they had seen it many times before. In the Casino on Wall Street, the Dealers have seen this before; three Stock Bubbles in 20 years. Just like in Vegas, you have to know when to quit!

The signs have been there for quite a while; P/E’s over 30, Historic Margin Debt, declining Commercial and Industrial Loans, Technicals of Advance-Decline and 200 day Moving Average deterioration are signaling a tired and aging Stock Market. Further, historically, Stock Markets last about 85-90 months; this one is very old at 103 months. Just a little longer; everything is Awesome! Until it’s NOT! Greed can overcome Prudence and it is Prudent to pay attention and maybe take some Profits! The Pit Bosses and Dealers will not tell you when it is time to leave; they want your money to remain in the Casino. The true Winners know to walkaway when you are up.

The cycle for the Stocks is historically about 7.5 years; the best gains are often at the very end. Is the Trump rally signaling a potential End? Since Election Night, the Stock Market has gained 15%; almost straight up without even a pullback. Perhaps simply re-arranging assets could protect the portfolio. Accumulating assets with Cash Flow components that mitigate Economic Stress and transitioning into asset classes with longer cycles can be safer from catastrophic declines. Conservative entry level single family homes rented to credit worthy families can be a careful Strategy with consistent Income to mitigate any Economic downturn and allow one to sleep well at night (SWAN). Charts for US Real Estate project 7-9 years before the start of the cycle’s completion. Plenty of time to accumulate a strong portfolio for future profits while providing monthly Income to fund Cruises to the South Pacific or pay bills if the Business Cycle slows. Residential Rentals have a Use Factor; they are a necessity like Food, Water, and Shelter and may be a Lifeboat in an Economic Storm.

Check out our website michaeldouville.com for more blogs, videos and Michael’s new book – How To Create A Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income.  The first consultation is always free!

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