Archive for stock market

Living in Economic Extremes…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on February 27, 2018 by paulthepoke

Hebrews 11:7 By faith Noah, being warned by God concerning events as yet unseen, in reverent fear constructed an ark for the saving of his household. By this he condemned the world and became an heir of the righteousness that comes by faith.

What if Noah had not acted and had not prepared on God’s warning? One can believe God and not act accordingly…

Kentucky 2016 016

Do you have a life boat?

Author: Michael Douville

Trey Smith of God in the Nutshell Productions, author and documentarian, interviews Michael Douville, author, fiduciary and financial advisor, about the economy, stock market and debt.

The interview also has excerpts from noted economic experts like Harry Dent, Zero Hour author and business analyst; Jim Rogers, financial commentator; Peter Elindes, Stockmarket Cycles editor and publisher; Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Company founder and author; and Joe Needham, an investor.

They discuss a correction in the stock market of 40-50% and they also discuss that the US and the World have an unsustainable amount of debt.

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at




Bubble Deflating? Have a Plan…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on February 19, 2018 by paulthepoke

Genesis 41:33-36 Now therefore let Pharaoh select a discerning and wise man, and set him over the land of Egypt. Let Pharaoh proceed to appoint overseers over the land and take one-fifth of the produce of the land of Egypt during the seven plentiful years. And let them gather all the food of these good years that are coming and store up grain under the authority of Pharaoh for food in the cities, and let them keep it. That food shall be a reserve for the land against the seven years of famine that are to occur in the land of Egypt, so that the land may not perish through the famine.”

MichaelWhat do you do with your money when the Stock Market is unstable? Is the Bubble Deflating? Michael talks about your options. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets? Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Click on the link below for video.



Have a plan. Joseph did. The good times never last forever.

Check us out at The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at

As Good As It Gets…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , on February 5, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 21:5 The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty.


Are we headed toward a recession? Many economic indicators are going down. Don’t be caught on the wrong side of a downturn. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat?

Michael Douville has been writing about a coming stock market down turn since the Summer of 2017. For those following the blog, Michael has been talking about a market correction for at least the last 8 months. Math don’t lie!!!

The link below was originally posted on 1/31/18 before the recent losses in the stock market. He is not piling on to the “short” band wagon.

Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Check us out at The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Contact Michael at


Signs of a Forming Top…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on January 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Philippians 4:6-7 Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; 7 and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus.


Everything is Absolutely Awesome! Business is Great! The 2017 Christmas sales were a record according to Visa/MasterCard; (the fact that the Charge Card Companies have record sales is a sign in itself). Everyone extrapolates this feeling of Euphoria to continue next year and the years following; the Top always feel this way! In 2006, I counseled my clients to take profits after the extraordinary year of 2005; my forecast for the direction of the Real Estate Market was DOWN! Most of my clients thought I was wrong; I was for 6 long months……

These extravagant markets can continue for longer than one would think possible. Values get stretched and returns shrink and yet the markets continue to rise. No one wants to believe an ending is possible. There are however, harbingers for the watchful and observant.

The Case/Schiller PE ratio is based on inflation adjusted earnings over a 10 year period. The Index fluctuates, but has averaged 15.21 for many, many years indicating proximately a 6.6% return. When the Index is below 15.21, the index is considered a better value and indicates better than a 6.6% return. The CAPE Index has steadily climbed and is now 32.46 as of Dec 29th 2017. This is exorbitantly high exceeded only by the Dot. Com Bubble which reached the record of 44. The current reading of 32.46 is higher than the 1929 Market Bubble, the 1987 Crash, and the Dec 14, 2007 Stock Market top. Further, the earnings (the E of the P/E ratio) may be terribly distorted as many Fortune 500 companies are quoting non-GAAP earnings which are typically misstated by 10-25% due to the flexibility by company officials as to what constitutes a “profit” and a “loss”. Widespread use of non-GAAP earnings could easily drive the “Real” P/E to well over 45. This valuation can remain elevated much longer than one would expect much like the prior Real Estate Bubble. You can believe this: the Stock Market Cycle will end and when the Cycle completes, the market will need to fall at least 50% to get to normal. The pendulum never stops at “Normal”. Expect an “equal but opposite” reaction to an 80-90% loss. Devastating!

Martin Armstrong has stated Global Interest Rates are at a 5000 year low! Ancient Sumeria had higher rates! Bond prices have an inverse relationship to price. As rates drop, as they have since 1981, the price of bonds rises, The long, long 35 year interest rates cycle is coming to an end and will destroy Bond Portfolios! Not only is there rate risk, but there is a duration risk as well which amplifies the loss: a 10 year bond has a Duration factor of 9. Should there be a 1% increase in rates it results in a 9% loss! Currently, 10 year Treasuries are 2.4% ish….normal could easily be 6%, Over a 30% loss should it “Normalize”; the pendulum swing could go to 12%+! Devastating!

The Interest rate trend line has recently been broken. Higher rates are a high probability based on Technical Analysis. Also, Non performing loans were 6.5% in Europe at the time Lehman collapsed; currently, NPL’s are over 10.5% and Italian banks are reported to have upwards of 14%. On a Fundamental basis, Bonds are at Risk which will cause higher rates, maybe much higher rates. Global Bond buyers learned recently that the European Central Bank has been the main buyer of Sovereign Italian Bonds. Rates have risen quickly in just the last two weeks reflecting the perceived risk in Italy.

You are the Captain of your Destiny and Keeper of your family Wealth! When violent storms are on the Horizon, which ship will you choose to protect the Wealth? A ship named GREED or a ship named FEAR? You do NOT need to be 100% invested at all times. There may even come a time when it is important to PRESERVE your Wealth or as much of it as possible. Neither of these asset classes may be the that LifeBoat!



Time to Preserve your Wealth…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on December 7, 2017 by paulthepoke


Ecclesiastes 3:12 I perceived that there is nothing better for them than to be joyful and to do good as long as they live…

“Timing; it is all about Timing!” “ Know when to get off!” “There are times to be aggressive and times to be cautious!” “It is not what you make, but what you keep that Counts” “Trees do not grow to the sky!”

These adages are especially true today regarding the Historic levels of both the Stock and Bond Markets. These sayings mimic real life experience and explain that Life is a series of Cycles that ebb and flow throughout History. It is Wisdom that allows one the courage to ACT! Courage will be needed to recognize danger and courage will be needed to Preserve your Wealth for the Future!

Stock Market Cycles have characteristics of a Wave Pattern that peaks about every 7 years; examples of the latest bubbles are March 2000, then December 2007 (7.5 years), and now almost 10 years from the last Stock Market Peak; courtesy of the World’s Central Banks. The final push to the top often is exaggerated with huge gains associated with the Peaking Process.; a vertical price appreciation spike often develops near the cycle end, adding to the Mania. The Mantra of “This Time is Different” is almost universal in the topping process as no one wants to believe the “Good Times” are ending. The Federal Reserve has announced it will no longer support the markets; rather, the Fed is withdrawing liquidity at a scheduled rate of $510 Billion for 2018. The “Good Times” are over! The Central Banks of the World have also declared their intention to bring Central Bank purchases to a screeching halt from $2 Trillion to ZERO by April of 2018. Beware, the Party IS OVER!! “What goes up, must come down.

If the Cycle has been artificially stretched by Central Bank intervention and the Banks have declared their intentions to end this intervention in BOTH the Stock and Bond Markets, it is time to “Jump Ship”. One does not need to be fully invested at all times. Numerous Private and Institutional Clients have already begun to take profits. Perhaps removing the original investment from any Risk or “Harm’s Way” would be prudent; parking the proceeds in Cash. Preserving Wealth will allow one to participate in different Investment Cycles such as the Commodity Cycle that appears to be in the bottoming process. Much of the Price Risk has been “Drained” from that Asset class as the demand for Raw Materials has “fallen off a cliff” and is beginning to show some signs of improvement. The Commodity Cycle, once it starts to rise, often completes in 7.5 years; plenty of time to season more true Wealth. Consider this, the Housing Cycle is a much longer cycle of 18.5 years that should Peak and Possibly Spike in the 2023/24 time frame. Investing in Housing now will allow participation in the Commodity Cycle as well as the Real Estate Cycle. Raw Materials are necessary for Construction, as they inflate, housing will follow; thus benefiting from two powerful trends.



The Other Side of the Peak…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 9, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelProverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear and increase in learning, and a man of understanding will acquire wise counsel…

From the lows in March of 2009 to the lofty levels of today, by any metric, the Stock Market has done extremely well. Hardly anyone caught the very bottom, but even those that came close have doubled or tripled their investment; very well done! Lucky Investors have ridden the S&P and The Dow up to 2582 and 23,517 respectively and the ride UP has been FUN! Please pay very close attention to this chart, the Other Side is a completely different World. The higher the Peak becomes, the steeper the Other Side! There is no Plateau!

In order to preserve the Gains, a Courageous decision MUST be made; when to EXIT! Greed dictates grabbing every extra dollar one can; Prudence cautions that it is not what you make, but what you keep that counts! The climb to the Peak is exhilarating, even intoxicating. The Fall is depressing. Unfortunately, typical Human fashion,  the average Investor believes that the “Peak” will be recognized and they will escape in plenty of time to capture the Maximum gains. This “Time is Different” always becomes the Mantra! The brutal lessons of History teach that most Investors ride the wave up and then ride the wave down; this time the Fall may be devastating. The Central Banks of the World have exaggerated the Bubble with their Trillions of Dollars of Liquidity. The Federal Reserve has stated they will begin removing liquidity the 4th Quarter of 2017 at the rate of $10 Billion a month growing to $510 Billion withdrawn in 2018. The World Central Banks have pledged to reduce their liquidity injections from $2 Trillion annually to ZERO by April 2018.

Without Global Central Banks participation Risk will rise substantially. The Doctrine of Enough (or How Much do I Need?) prescribes taking the profits gained and moving to another Asset Class; reducing risk. Bonds have traditionally been the choice of risk adverse Investors. However, the Debt Binge of most Government Entities as well as many Corporate Entities make Bonds as risky or maybe even more so than Equities; this Asset Class should also be avoided.  Precious Metals and the larger class of Real Assets and Commodities are just starting to bottom after years of decline; the process has not yet completed. They are at or near the lowest values in decades.

Recognizing the coming shift in Cycles is not easy. However, the basic industrial components such as Iron Ore, Copper, Lumber, Oil,  and Aluminum will soon cycle off their bottoms. These are the components of Single Family homes which as the raw materials rise, house prices will also rise. Housing unlike Gold has a “Use Factor” of “Shelter” and is a necessary component of Life. Accumulating Single Family homes and providing “Shelter” by leasing them to families may not only transfer profits from an aging, riskier asset class to an emerging class, but also provide conservative, consistent, and monthly Income to weather an Economic Storm.

Maricopa County in Arizona is still ranked as one of the best long term Real Estate Markets in the Nation. Your Core Real Estate Lifeboat may provide Generations of Wealth and Income.  Our website is and our first consultation is always free.


Buy at in paperback or Kindle below. Click on “Preview” for a free sample of the book.

Rapture compressed

Also available online at Barnes & Noble, iBooks, Kobo, and Inktera

Good Times Do Not Last Forever…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 14, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelLuke 12:15 Then He said to them, “Beware, and be on your guard against every form of greed; for not even when one has an abundance does his life consist of his possessions.”

A Tourist on vacation in Las Vegas can pick up the dice at the Craps Table and start a winning streak. Throwing the dice to win 5 times in a row and the casual gambler is becoming convinced the “House” will be paying for a Steak Dinner and a nice bottle of wine. Win 7 times and the Vacation is paid, 9 times and the Kids’ College can be funded, and in just a little more time, the casual gambler is now a “Pro” on his way to “breaking the House”. Just one more throw of the dice to complete “Financial Freedom”. A great Plan until it no longer works; disaster, catastrophe, an unforeseen calamity! All of the Cocktail Waitresses, Dealers, and Pit Bosses knew the streak would end; they had seen it many times before. In the Casino on Wall Street, the Dealers have seen this before; three Stock Bubbles in 20 years. Just like in Vegas, you have to know when to quit!

The signs have been there for quite a while; P/E’s over 30, Historic Margin Debt, declining Commercial and Industrial Loans, Technicals of Advance-Decline and 200 day Moving Average deterioration are signaling a tired and aging Stock Market. Further, historically, Stock Markets last about 85-90 months; this one is very old at 103 months. Just a little longer; everything is Awesome! Until it’s NOT! Greed can overcome Prudence and it is Prudent to pay attention and maybe take some Profits! The Pit Bosses and Dealers will not tell you when it is time to leave; they want your money to remain in the Casino. The true Winners know to walkaway when you are up.

The cycle for the Stocks is historically about 7.5 years; the best gains are often at the very end. Is the Trump rally signaling a potential End? Since Election Night, the Stock Market has gained 15%; almost straight up without even a pullback. Perhaps simply re-arranging assets could protect the portfolio. Accumulating assets with Cash Flow components that mitigate Economic Stress and transitioning into asset classes with longer cycles can be safer from catastrophic declines. Conservative entry level single family homes rented to credit worthy families can be a careful Strategy with consistent Income to mitigate any Economic downturn and allow one to sleep well at night (SWAN). Charts for US Real Estate project 7-9 years before the start of the cycle’s completion. Plenty of time to accumulate a strong portfolio for future profits while providing monthly Income to fund Cruises to the South Pacific or pay bills if the Business Cycle slows. Residential Rentals have a Use Factor; they are a necessity like Food, Water, and Shelter and may be a Lifeboat in an Economic Storm.

Check out our website for more blogs, videos and Michael’s new book – How To Create A Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income.  The first consultation is always free!


Prophecy Watch

God in a Nutshell project

A Trey Smith project

%d bloggers like this: