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Old, Sick, and Very Broke pt 1 of 3… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 30, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 30:24-25 Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer…

Michael Douville is a syndicated columnist for the Wall Street Greek.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Most of my friends are broke! At 66 years old, retirement is certainly in the forefront of their thoughts. “How much longer can or should I work?” How many years will I still be viable and able to pursue my interests? What if my spouse gets sick; or I get sick and then we are no longer able to travel; available time taken up with other issues like Health. Time becomes extremely important; the accumulation of Wealth, not so much.

After 10 to 15 years, the Baby Boomers are back to work. The 75 years and OLDER,  represent the largest segment of workers entering the workforce; 63% will go back to work. Completely broke! A travesty!

It is this balance between having “Enough” and not that becomes startlingly clear as one ages and one approaches the end of a career or the end of one’s working life. Ideally, Investments have been made that have blossomed and grown to replace the W-2 income stream and Financial Freedom is attained. This is almost always a process achieved over a number of years; each year growing and adding income.  However, the sad truth is 51% of American Retirees retire Broke. No planning, no savings, no assets! Even worse, the vast majority of my generation, The Baby Boomers, retire the moment they are eligible for Social Security and do not receive their full benefits; taking less, but taking payments earlier.

Making a “Bad” situation worse, most soon-to-be-retired have absolutely no idea what their monthly expenses are and how much it takes to continue their lifestyle.  There are so many variables to factor in monthly housing costs such as Real Estate taxes that are exorbitantly higher in New Jersey, Illinois, New York, and California which drive up the cost to live enormously. Transportation costs in the suburbs or rural areas are much more than public transit in the urban areas. However, seldom are monthly costs less than $3000 per month and typically closer to $4000 per month; the Department of labor Statistics claims $3700 is the magic monthly cost. Unfortunately, the average “Baby Boomer” retiring in 2018 receives a Social Security check of around $1300 if unmarried and $2200 if your spouse is still alive and collecting as well. This is a very far cry from what is needed. Sadly, 41.9 million retired Americans depend exclusively on Social Security.

If a couple has managed to save $300,000, it places them in the 86th percentile of the entire US Population of 55 years and above! That amount of savings and assets gives a certain degree of comfort. Not enough, not even close enough to provide for the rest of your entire life! You will be BROKE in 10-15 years and looking at any menial job that comes your way just to keep the lights on!

There are formulas and guidelines for Monthly withdrawals. The Bengen Rule was developed by William Bengen as an attempt to account for 30 years of monthly withdrawals from the $300,000 Nest Egg. Although again, variables such as any earnings the Nest Egg may generate or worse any losses it sustains, will certainly affect the longevity of the funds. The general consensus is 4% of the funds per year. not including your home, can be safely withdrawn.  The goal is for the Nest Egg to last for 30 years after which the asset is depleted or very nearly so. The suppression of interest rates coupled with the lack of any Financial Correction of assets has changed the outlook to even lower withdrawls. The new conservative approach is to reduce the monthly Distribution from 4% to 3.3%, the Pfau Rule! The results are the same net effect; after 30 years, hopefully you are dead along with your Spouse as all of the Nest Egg is probably gone!

These withdrawal rates absolutely astound people and are met with disbelief. That $300,000 nest egg will generate $12,000 with Bengen and $9,900 with Pfau! Uh-Oh! Keep in mind, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average Baby Boomer needs $3700 a month. Social Security provides $2200 until a spouse passes then it reduces to the highest individual benefits of the married couple, still a sizable reduction. With a $2200 Social Security  monthly check and as an honorary member of the Elite having accumulated $300,000, which can deliver $1,000 a month, the benefits are still falling short.  There is a shortfall of $500 each and every month; no frills, no motor homes, no Family vacations with the Grand kids, no college funds, and NO ROOM for Health Issues.  Certain Financial trouble for the survivng spouse.  At the Death of a Spouse, the benefits reduce substantially and that $500 shortfall can easily become $1500+.

After 10 to 15 years, the Baby Boomers are back to work. The 75 years and OLDER,  represent the largest segment of workers entering the workforce; 63% will go back to work. Completely broke! A travesty!

What if you are very lucky? What if you live more than 30 years in retirement? More and more Seniors are living to 100 through Medical Advancements. Will you be living with your children or grandchildren,  a niece or your son or daughter, a person down the street, or maybe a Ward of the State? Will you be subject to someone else’s charity when you are 90 years old?  6.2 million Seniors already live below the poverty line.

Take control of your own Destiny! Life is a Gift given by Almighty God.  You have the ability to change your Life! If you are still working, PAY ATTENTION!! It takes about 7 to 10 years and requires discipline and a Strategy. You can develop Wealth for multi generations that will last for your children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren and will NEVER DEPLETE. Take your husband or wife and explore Europe, walk the Great Wall of China, paint the landscape of the Dead Sea, or learn to cook in France. Enjoy every minute given to you. It is a simple choice, but it is YOUR choice.

https://michaeldouville.com/

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It’s All A Big Party Until You Hit The Iceberg! Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on June 12, 2018 by paulthepoke

MichaelEverything seems great in the Stock Market but is there underlying instability. Michael talks about the state of the economy. Don’t miss this!

https://michaeldouville.com/blog/

Take provision for yourself as well as others. God speaking to Noah…

Genesis 6:21 Also take with you every sort of food that is eaten, and store it up. It shall serve as food for you and for them.

Good times do not last forever! Have a plan and prepare for a rainy day!

michael@michaeldouville.com

Listen to Michael’s comments in the video link below.

 

 

Tough Times Ahead…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on April 2, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 30:24-25 Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer…

Michael

Economic Indicators from around the world point to Tough Times Ahead. Learn how to prepare for them, especially geared toward Real Estate Investors.

Video was originally posted by Michael on March 8, 2018. He has been talking about a market correction since the summer of 2017…

 

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Living in Economic Extremes…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on February 27, 2018 by paulthepoke

Hebrews 11:7 By faith Noah, being warned by God concerning events as yet unseen, in reverent fear constructed an ark for the saving of his household. By this he condemned the world and became an heir of the righteousness that comes by faith.

What if Noah had not acted and had not prepared on God’s warning? One can believe God and not act accordingly…

Kentucky 2016 016

Do you have a life boat?

Author: Michael Douville

Trey Smith of God in the Nutshell Productions, author and documentarian, interviews Michael Douville, author, fiduciary and financial advisor, about the economy, stock market and debt.

The interview also has excerpts from noted economic experts like Harry Dent, Zero Hour author and business analyst; Jim Rogers, financial commentator; Peter Elindes, Stockmarket Cycles editor and publisher; Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Company founder and author; and Joe Needham, an investor.

They discuss a correction in the stock market of 40-50% and they also discuss that the US and the World have an unsustainable amount of debt.

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at  https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

 

 

Bubble Deflating? Have a Plan…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on February 19, 2018 by paulthepoke

Genesis 41:33-36 Now therefore let Pharaoh select a discerning and wise man, and set him over the land of Egypt. Let Pharaoh proceed to appoint overseers over the land and take one-fifth of the produce of the land of Egypt during the seven plentiful years. And let them gather all the food of these good years that are coming and store up grain under the authority of Pharaoh for food in the cities, and let them keep it. That food shall be a reserve for the land against the seven years of famine that are to occur in the land of Egypt, so that the land may not perish through the famine.”

MichaelWhat do you do with your money when the Stock Market is unstable? Is the Bubble Deflating? Michael talks about your options. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets? Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Click on the link below for video.

 

 

Have a plan. Joseph did. The good times never last forever.

Check us out at https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

As Good As It Gets…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , on February 5, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 21:5 The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty.

Michael

Are we headed toward a recession? Many economic indicators are going down. Don’t be caught on the wrong side of a downturn. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat?

Michael Douville has been writing about a coming stock market down turn since the Summer of 2017. For those following the blog, Michael has been talking about a market correction for at least the last 8 months. Math don’t lie!!!

The link below was originally posted on 1/31/18 before the recent losses in the stock market. He is not piling on to the “short” band wagon.

Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Check us out at https://www.michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Contact Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Signs of a Forming Top…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on January 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Philippians 4:6-7 Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; 7 and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus.

forming-top

Everything is Absolutely Awesome! Business is Great! The 2017 Christmas sales were a record according to Visa/MasterCard; (the fact that the Charge Card Companies have record sales is a sign in itself). Everyone extrapolates this feeling of Euphoria to continue next year and the years following; the Top always feel this way! In 2006, I counseled my clients to take profits after the extraordinary year of 2005; my forecast for the direction of the Real Estate Market was DOWN! Most of my clients thought I was wrong; I was for 6 long months……

These extravagant markets can continue for longer than one would think possible. Values get stretched and returns shrink and yet the markets continue to rise. No one wants to believe an ending is possible. There are however, harbingers for the watchful and observant.

The Case/Schiller PE ratio is based on inflation adjusted earnings over a 10 year period. The Index fluctuates, but has averaged 15.21 for many, many years indicating proximately a 6.6% return. When the Index is below 15.21, the index is considered a better value and indicates better than a 6.6% return. The CAPE Index has steadily climbed and is now 32.46 as of Dec 29th 2017. This is exorbitantly high exceeded only by the Dot. Com Bubble which reached the record of 44. The current reading of 32.46 is higher than the 1929 Market Bubble, the 1987 Crash, and the Dec 14, 2007 Stock Market top. Further, the earnings (the E of the P/E ratio) may be terribly distorted as many Fortune 500 companies are quoting non-GAAP earnings which are typically misstated by 10-25% due to the flexibility by company officials as to what constitutes a “profit” and a “loss”. Widespread use of non-GAAP earnings could easily drive the “Real” P/E to well over 45. This valuation can remain elevated much longer than one would expect much like the prior Real Estate Bubble. You can believe this: the Stock Market Cycle will end and when the Cycle completes, the market will need to fall at least 50% to get to normal. The pendulum never stops at “Normal”. Expect an “equal but opposite” reaction to an 80-90% loss. Devastating!

Martin Armstrong has stated Global Interest Rates are at a 5000 year low! Ancient Sumeria had higher rates! Bond prices have an inverse relationship to price. As rates drop, as they have since 1981, the price of bonds rises, The long, long 35 year interest rates cycle is coming to an end and will destroy Bond Portfolios! Not only is there rate risk, but there is a duration risk as well which amplifies the loss: a 10 year bond has a Duration factor of 9. Should there be a 1% increase in rates it results in a 9% loss! Currently, 10 year Treasuries are 2.4% ish….normal could easily be 6%, Over a 30% loss should it “Normalize”; the pendulum swing could go to 12%+! Devastating!

The Interest rate trend line has recently been broken. Higher rates are a high probability based on Technical Analysis. Also, Non performing loans were 6.5% in Europe at the time Lehman collapsed; currently, NPL’s are over 10.5% and Italian banks are reported to have upwards of 14%. On a Fundamental basis, Bonds are at Risk which will cause higher rates, maybe much higher rates. Global Bond buyers learned recently that the European Central Bank has been the main buyer of Sovereign Italian Bonds. Rates have risen quickly in just the last two weeks reflecting the perceived risk in Italy.

You are the Captain of your Destiny and Keeper of your family Wealth! When violent storms are on the Horizon, which ship will you choose to protect the Wealth? A ship named GREED or a ship named FEAR? You do NOT need to be 100% invested at all times. There may even come a time when it is important to PRESERVE your Wealth or as much of it as possible. Neither of these asset classes may be the that LifeBoat!

 

 

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