Archive for stock market

Proceed with Caution

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on December 5, 2018 by paulthepoke

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

There is an ongoing Housing Correction, a Global Slowdown and Turmoil in Iran, Russia and Turkey. Understanding these dynamics will help you navigate the future and not only survive but prosper.

Michael released this video about a month ago. Since then, oil has dropped to $53 per barrel. Housing starts continue to decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped close to 800 points at its last close.

Know the times we are living. Have an understanding. Have a plan. Know what to do.

Click the video link below for Michael’s 3 minute broadcast.

 

https://michaeldouville.com/

 

 

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Time to Assess Vulnerabilities, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 22, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

ice berg douville

https://michaeldouville.com

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action!


Everyone is always amazed at how quickly the Stock Market can drop! The Stock Market declined 1300 points in 7 days! Oct 3, the Dow recorded a nominal new high; in a video, I suggested that would be an outstanding time to take profits. The adage “you cannot go broke taking a profit” certainly applies. More than profits, take at least half out of Harm’s Way and reduce Risk and Exposure. Back in February, when the Stock Market dropped 3000 points in just a few weeks and then stabilized, many analysis suggested the Market would recover to record a new high.

Indeed, there was a gap on the S&P near 2830 which further suggested a return to the old highs.

The market did recover and did make a nominal new high; perhaps a “Double Top? Only for a day! After 1300 points, the question now is will the Stock Market recover and again make another nominal new high or is the Top for this Cycle already achieved? The answer should not matter; as a baby Boomer, can we really take the chance? Can we assume the Risk?

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action! An assessment of Vulnerabilities should be conducted with your Financial Professional for your protection. By all measures, the current Stock Market has provided the participants with excellent returns; however, many metrics point to a vulnerable market. Although the current market may go considerably higher, there comes a time when Prudence demands thought; how much downside can be tolerated? There is Historic Margin debt financing the portfolios; leverage accentuates gains and creates tremendous profits in a Rising Market.

A Declining Market creates “Air Pocket” plunges as margin Calls produce stock liquidations usually at precarious moments accelerating the downside. At 65, 69, or 72 years of age and beyond, there is no time to recover losses. There is no “Long Run” left! Should a portfolio experience a 39.6% decline which represents the losses incurred in a typical cycle completion, how would your Life be affected? The market may be Vulnerable, are YOU?

There are times to be Aggressive; now is not one of them. Consider reducing exposure to Risk and increasing the Cash Flow component of your Wealth Portfolio.  Risk cannot be totally eliminated, but can be drastically reduced.  The recognition of change is a great advantage; there will be another Bull Market, it will just change asset classes. Consider accumulating very conservative rental properties in the entry level price range. Typically, there are very good opportunities close to everyone’s home. There are several strong growth markets across America that may provide conservative, consistent, cash flow for many years that may prove to be a “Lifeboat” for your Family and your Future.

https://michaeldouville.com

 

Prices Rising in Turkey, Trouble Ahead

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on October 8, 2018 by paulthepoke

The Turmoil will not start in the United States, but it will reach our shores.  The warnings are moving from inevitable Global Turmoil to Imminent Global Turmoil!

Michael’s website

The Catalyst will not start in the Equity Markets, but in the Credit and Debt Markets of the World. The Debt Markets dwarf the Equity Markets by a factor of at least 20; the Credit Market is enormous!!  Although the Turmoil will not start in the US, the US Dollar will be the cause! In an effort to Save the World, the Central Bankers reduced rates to zero or below and encouraged borrowing; encouraged squander and massive, pervasive Debt! Global rates have risen from 0.1% to over 3.0% in the US. A thirty fold increase! Thirty times more interest; thirty times more tax money to service the debt. To make matters worse, a gamble was taken; betting the US Dollar would indefinitely decline in value and Debt could be rolled over in cheaper and cheaper Dollars. Historical Cycles were ignored; the Day of Reckoning is coming as the Dollar has reversed and is now getting stronger and stronger. The equation of local currency vs the US Dollar is tipping. Not only is the payment rate trending higher, more local currency is needed to buy a US Dollar; a lot more!

Available Now-Click on Book

Not only Debt repayment will cause Turmoil, but Imports are typically expressed in International measures which is typically the US Dollar. Energy costs will skyrocket in Argentina and Turkey as their respective currencies decline vis-a-vis the US Dollar.  Oil and refined petroleum Products will become very expensive and cause hardship on the local populations. Medicine, machine parts, electronics, replacement parts will all become expensive demanding more and more of free cash flow and eventually a breaking point!

Obviously, as more and more Capital is diverted to servicing Debt and rising costs, the Economy will suffer. It will become a Negative Feed Loop Spiral! Eventually, Debt will be Defaulted affecting the Pension Funds, Hedge Funds, Banks, Mutual Funds, Annuities, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and even small family reserves. Collateral Damage will be a Contagion as Peter can no longer pay Paul who then cannot pay Mark!

Bonds will face not only Market Risk as Interest Rates rise causing a relentless decline in value, but also Credit Risk as Defaults rise and credit Quality lowers.  It is time to review holdings. It is time to re-allocate. The US Dollar cycles; it will trend lower again. Things and Real Assets will rise substantially in the US like they are now in Turkey and India. Real Things should be accumulated now while our Dollar is high. Commodities such as copper, aluminum, steel, asphalt, agriculture, farms, lumber, and residential rentals can be slowly bought. Cash flowing rentals contain these basic materials and will not only protect their value in the future, but protect the owner with an alternative cash stream when Turmoil reaches our shores.

Standing at the CRAPS Table… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 27, 2018 by paulthepoke

 

1 Timothy 6:10-11 For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evils. It is through this craving that some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pangs. But as for you, O man of God, flee these things. Pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, steadfastness, gentleness.

Notice what the verse does not say. It does not say, “Money is the root of all evil.”

It is the love of money that is the problem. Coveting money is the problem. It is the longing and desire and focus. The mental attitude is the issue. Making money in the stock market is not evil. There is nothing wrong with investing. But don’t be greedy…

 

https://michaeldouville.com

Timing is EVERYTHING!!! Investing in Stocks in early 2009 was the perfect time to enter the market. The S&P has enjoyed an unbroken string of positive years for the last 9 years; the second longest in History.  An almost no risk Investment resulting in a 280% increase in the Index including dividend reinvestment; Wow!  If one had the prescience to purchase Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, and Netflix in the same period, multiples of the S&P have been gained; 500-900%. WOW, WOW!!

Using a little longer time line, historically, the Casino was not built on winners!

Recently cracks in the Markets are starting to show. First Netflix missed the projected number of new subscribers and also lower revenue, and on July 17, 2018 the stock dropped 14% in after hours trading immediately after the announcement. This was followed one week later July 26th by Facebook’s lower than projected Quarterly and again after hours experienced the greatest loss in history of over $119 Billion Dollars in 24 hours. Just days later, another tech giant, Twitter, lost 21% in value on July 28th.  Wealthy one day; not so wealthy the next. Timing is Everything!

A player at the Casino has had an extraordinary run of luck; an extravagant bet of $100 has become $12,800 in 8 wins at the Dice Pass line. The player is allowing the winnings to accumulate in a double or nothing strategy. The” House” is encouraging another bet. After all historically, the player has won each time. What should the player do?  Using a little longer time line, historically, the Casino was not built on winners!

Timing is Everything! Assess your goals, assess your needs; you do to need to be 100% invested. You do not need to be invested 100% of the time. Maybe the advice should be take some of the winnings off the table!!! Maybe you have enough and it is time to reduce RISK!

https://michaeldouville.com

Old, Sick, and Very Broke pt 1 of 3… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 30, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 30:24-25 Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer…

Michael Douville is a syndicated columnist for the Wall Street Greek.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Most of my friends are broke! At 66 years old, retirement is certainly in the forefront of their thoughts. “How much longer can or should I work?” How many years will I still be viable and able to pursue my interests? What if my spouse gets sick; or I get sick and then we are no longer able to travel; available time taken up with other issues like Health. Time becomes extremely important; the accumulation of Wealth, not so much.

After 10 to 15 years, the Baby Boomers are back to work. The 75 years and OLDER,  represent the largest segment of workers entering the workforce; 63% will go back to work. Completely broke! A travesty!

It is this balance between having “Enough” and not that becomes startlingly clear as one ages and one approaches the end of a career or the end of one’s working life. Ideally, Investments have been made that have blossomed and grown to replace the W-2 income stream and Financial Freedom is attained. This is almost always a process achieved over a number of years; each year growing and adding income.  However, the sad truth is 51% of American Retirees retire Broke. No planning, no savings, no assets! Even worse, the vast majority of my generation, The Baby Boomers, retire the moment they are eligible for Social Security and do not receive their full benefits; taking less, but taking payments earlier.

Making a “Bad” situation worse, most soon-to-be-retired have absolutely no idea what their monthly expenses are and how much it takes to continue their lifestyle.  There are so many variables to factor in monthly housing costs such as Real Estate taxes that are exorbitantly higher in New Jersey, Illinois, New York, and California which drive up the cost to live enormously. Transportation costs in the suburbs or rural areas are much more than public transit in the urban areas. However, seldom are monthly costs less than $3000 per month and typically closer to $4000 per month; the Department of labor Statistics claims $3700 is the magic monthly cost. Unfortunately, the average “Baby Boomer” retiring in 2018 receives a Social Security check of around $1300 if unmarried and $2200 if your spouse is still alive and collecting as well. This is a very far cry from what is needed. Sadly, 41.9 million retired Americans depend exclusively on Social Security.

If a couple has managed to save $300,000, it places them in the 86th percentile of the entire US Population of 55 years and above! That amount of savings and assets gives a certain degree of comfort. Not enough, not even close enough to provide for the rest of your entire life! You will be BROKE in 10-15 years and looking at any menial job that comes your way just to keep the lights on!

There are formulas and guidelines for Monthly withdrawals. The Bengen Rule was developed by William Bengen as an attempt to account for 30 years of monthly withdrawals from the $300,000 Nest Egg. Although again, variables such as any earnings the Nest Egg may generate or worse any losses it sustains, will certainly affect the longevity of the funds. The general consensus is 4% of the funds per year. not including your home, can be safely withdrawn.  The goal is for the Nest Egg to last for 30 years after which the asset is depleted or very nearly so. The suppression of interest rates coupled with the lack of any Financial Correction of assets has changed the outlook to even lower withdrawls. The new conservative approach is to reduce the monthly Distribution from 4% to 3.3%, the Pfau Rule! The results are the same net effect; after 30 years, hopefully you are dead along with your Spouse as all of the Nest Egg is probably gone!

These withdrawal rates absolutely astound people and are met with disbelief. That $300,000 nest egg will generate $12,000 with Bengen and $9,900 with Pfau! Uh-Oh! Keep in mind, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average Baby Boomer needs $3700 a month. Social Security provides $2200 until a spouse passes then it reduces to the highest individual benefits of the married couple, still a sizable reduction. With a $2200 Social Security  monthly check and as an honorary member of the Elite having accumulated $300,000, which can deliver $1,000 a month, the benefits are still falling short.  There is a shortfall of $500 each and every month; no frills, no motor homes, no Family vacations with the Grand kids, no college funds, and NO ROOM for Health Issues.  Certain Financial trouble for the survivng spouse.  At the Death of a Spouse, the benefits reduce substantially and that $500 shortfall can easily become $1500+.

After 10 to 15 years, the Baby Boomers are back to work. The 75 years and OLDER,  represent the largest segment of workers entering the workforce; 63% will go back to work. Completely broke! A travesty!

What if you are very lucky? What if you live more than 30 years in retirement? More and more Seniors are living to 100 through Medical Advancements. Will you be living with your children or grandchildren,  a niece or your son or daughter, a person down the street, or maybe a Ward of the State? Will you be subject to someone else’s charity when you are 90 years old?  6.2 million Seniors already live below the poverty line.

Take control of your own Destiny! Life is a Gift given by Almighty God.  You have the ability to change your Life! If you are still working, PAY ATTENTION!! It takes about 7 to 10 years and requires discipline and a Strategy. You can develop Wealth for multi generations that will last for your children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren and will NEVER DEPLETE. Take your husband or wife and explore Europe, walk the Great Wall of China, paint the landscape of the Dead Sea, or learn to cook in France. Enjoy every minute given to you. It is a simple choice, but it is YOUR choice.

https://michaeldouville.com/

It’s All A Big Party Until You Hit The Iceberg! Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on June 12, 2018 by paulthepoke

MichaelEverything seems great in the Stock Market but is there underlying instability. Michael talks about the state of the economy. Don’t miss this!

https://michaeldouville.com/blog/

Take provision for yourself as well as others. God speaking to Noah…

Genesis 6:21 Also take with you every sort of food that is eaten, and store it up. It shall serve as food for you and for them.

Good times do not last forever! Have a plan and prepare for a rainy day!

michael@michaeldouville.com

Listen to Michael’s comments in the video link below.

 

 

Tough Times Ahead…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on April 2, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 30:24-25 Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer…

Michael

Economic Indicators from around the world point to Tough Times Ahead. Learn how to prepare for them, especially geared toward Real Estate Investors.

Video was originally posted by Michael on March 8, 2018. He has been talking about a market correction since the summer of 2017…

 

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch & Bible Study

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