Archive for stock market

It’s All A Big Party Until You Hit The Iceberg! Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on June 12, 2018 by paulthepoke

MichaelEverything seems great in the Stock Market but is there underlying instability. Michael talks about the state of the economy. Don’t miss this!

https://michaeldouville.com/blog/

Take provision for yourself as well as others. God speaking to Noah…

Genesis 6:21 Also take with you every sort of food that is eaten, and store it up. It shall serve as food for you and for them.

Good times do not last forever! Have a plan and prepare for a rainy day!

michael@michaeldouville.com

Listen to Michael’s comments in the video link below.

 

 

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Tough Times Ahead…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on April 2, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 30:24-25 Four things on earth are small, but they are exceedingly wise: the ants are a people not strong, yet they provide their food in the summer…

Michael

Economic Indicators from around the world point to Tough Times Ahead. Learn how to prepare for them, especially geared toward Real Estate Investors.

Video was originally posted by Michael on March 8, 2018. He has been talking about a market correction since the summer of 2017…

 

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Living in Economic Extremes…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on February 27, 2018 by paulthepoke

Hebrews 11:7 By faith Noah, being warned by God concerning events as yet unseen, in reverent fear constructed an ark for the saving of his household. By this he condemned the world and became an heir of the righteousness that comes by faith.

What if Noah had not acted and had not prepared on God’s warning? One can believe God and not act accordingly…

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Do you have a life boat?

Author: Michael Douville

Trey Smith of God in the Nutshell Productions, author and documentarian, interviews Michael Douville, author, fiduciary and financial advisor, about the economy, stock market and debt.

The interview also has excerpts from noted economic experts like Harry Dent, Zero Hour author and business analyst; Jim Rogers, financial commentator; Peter Elindes, Stockmarket Cycles editor and publisher; Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Company founder and author; and Joe Needham, an investor.

They discuss a correction in the stock market of 40-50% and they also discuss that the US and the World have an unsustainable amount of debt.

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at  https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

 

 

Bubble Deflating? Have a Plan…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on February 19, 2018 by paulthepoke

Genesis 41:33-36 Now therefore let Pharaoh select a discerning and wise man, and set him over the land of Egypt. Let Pharaoh proceed to appoint overseers over the land and take one-fifth of the produce of the land of Egypt during the seven plentiful years. And let them gather all the food of these good years that are coming and store up grain under the authority of Pharaoh for food in the cities, and let them keep it. That food shall be a reserve for the land against the seven years of famine that are to occur in the land of Egypt, so that the land may not perish through the famine.”

MichaelWhat do you do with your money when the Stock Market is unstable? Is the Bubble Deflating? Michael talks about your options. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets? Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Click on the link below for video.

 

 

Have a plan. Joseph did. The good times never last forever.

Check us out at https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

As Good As It Gets…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , on February 5, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 21:5 The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty.

Michael

Are we headed toward a recession? Many economic indicators are going down. Don’t be caught on the wrong side of a downturn. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat?

Michael Douville has been writing about a coming stock market down turn since the Summer of 2017. For those following the blog, Michael has been talking about a market correction for at least the last 8 months. Math don’t lie!!!

The link below was originally posted on 1/31/18 before the recent losses in the stock market. He is not piling on to the “short” band wagon.

Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Check us out at https://www.michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Contact Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Signs of a Forming Top…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , on January 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Philippians 4:6-7 Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; 7 and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus.

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Everything is Absolutely Awesome! Business is Great! The 2017 Christmas sales were a record according to Visa/MasterCard; (the fact that the Charge Card Companies have record sales is a sign in itself). Everyone extrapolates this feeling of Euphoria to continue next year and the years following; the Top always feel this way! In 2006, I counseled my clients to take profits after the extraordinary year of 2005; my forecast for the direction of the Real Estate Market was DOWN! Most of my clients thought I was wrong; I was for 6 long months……

These extravagant markets can continue for longer than one would think possible. Values get stretched and returns shrink and yet the markets continue to rise. No one wants to believe an ending is possible. There are however, harbingers for the watchful and observant.

The Case/Schiller PE ratio is based on inflation adjusted earnings over a 10 year period. The Index fluctuates, but has averaged 15.21 for many, many years indicating proximately a 6.6% return. When the Index is below 15.21, the index is considered a better value and indicates better than a 6.6% return. The CAPE Index has steadily climbed and is now 32.46 as of Dec 29th 2017. This is exorbitantly high exceeded only by the Dot. Com Bubble which reached the record of 44. The current reading of 32.46 is higher than the 1929 Market Bubble, the 1987 Crash, and the Dec 14, 2007 Stock Market top. Further, the earnings (the E of the P/E ratio) may be terribly distorted as many Fortune 500 companies are quoting non-GAAP earnings which are typically misstated by 10-25% due to the flexibility by company officials as to what constitutes a “profit” and a “loss”. Widespread use of non-GAAP earnings could easily drive the “Real” P/E to well over 45. This valuation can remain elevated much longer than one would expect much like the prior Real Estate Bubble. You can believe this: the Stock Market Cycle will end and when the Cycle completes, the market will need to fall at least 50% to get to normal. The pendulum never stops at “Normal”. Expect an “equal but opposite” reaction to an 80-90% loss. Devastating!

Martin Armstrong has stated Global Interest Rates are at a 5000 year low! Ancient Sumeria had higher rates! Bond prices have an inverse relationship to price. As rates drop, as they have since 1981, the price of bonds rises, The long, long 35 year interest rates cycle is coming to an end and will destroy Bond Portfolios! Not only is there rate risk, but there is a duration risk as well which amplifies the loss: a 10 year bond has a Duration factor of 9. Should there be a 1% increase in rates it results in a 9% loss! Currently, 10 year Treasuries are 2.4% ish….normal could easily be 6%, Over a 30% loss should it “Normalize”; the pendulum swing could go to 12%+! Devastating!

The Interest rate trend line has recently been broken. Higher rates are a high probability based on Technical Analysis. Also, Non performing loans were 6.5% in Europe at the time Lehman collapsed; currently, NPL’s are over 10.5% and Italian banks are reported to have upwards of 14%. On a Fundamental basis, Bonds are at Risk which will cause higher rates, maybe much higher rates. Global Bond buyers learned recently that the European Central Bank has been the main buyer of Sovereign Italian Bonds. Rates have risen quickly in just the last two weeks reflecting the perceived risk in Italy.

You are the Captain of your Destiny and Keeper of your family Wealth! When violent storms are on the Horizon, which ship will you choose to protect the Wealth? A ship named GREED or a ship named FEAR? You do NOT need to be 100% invested at all times. There may even come a time when it is important to PRESERVE your Wealth or as much of it as possible. Neither of these asset classes may be the that LifeBoat!

 

 

Time to Preserve your Wealth…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on December 7, 2017 by paulthepoke

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Ecclesiastes 3:12 I perceived that there is nothing better for them than to be joyful and to do good as long as they live…

“Timing; it is all about Timing!” “ Know when to get off!” “There are times to be aggressive and times to be cautious!” “It is not what you make, but what you keep that Counts” “Trees do not grow to the sky!”

These adages are especially true today regarding the Historic levels of both the Stock and Bond Markets. These sayings mimic real life experience and explain that Life is a series of Cycles that ebb and flow throughout History. It is Wisdom that allows one the courage to ACT! Courage will be needed to recognize danger and courage will be needed to Preserve your Wealth for the Future!

Stock Market Cycles have characteristics of a Wave Pattern that peaks about every 7 years; examples of the latest bubbles are March 2000, then December 2007 (7.5 years), and now almost 10 years from the last Stock Market Peak; courtesy of the World’s Central Banks. The final push to the top often is exaggerated with huge gains associated with the Peaking Process.; a vertical price appreciation spike often develops near the cycle end, adding to the Mania. The Mantra of “This Time is Different” is almost universal in the topping process as no one wants to believe the “Good Times” are ending. The Federal Reserve has announced it will no longer support the markets; rather, the Fed is withdrawing liquidity at a scheduled rate of $510 Billion for 2018. The “Good Times” are over! The Central Banks of the World have also declared their intention to bring Central Bank purchases to a screeching halt from $2 Trillion to ZERO by April of 2018. Beware, the Party IS OVER!! “What goes up, must come down.

If the Cycle has been artificially stretched by Central Bank intervention and the Banks have declared their intentions to end this intervention in BOTH the Stock and Bond Markets, it is time to “Jump Ship”. One does not need to be fully invested at all times. Numerous Private and Institutional Clients have already begun to take profits. Perhaps removing the original investment from any Risk or “Harm’s Way” would be prudent; parking the proceeds in Cash. Preserving Wealth will allow one to participate in different Investment Cycles such as the Commodity Cycle that appears to be in the bottoming process. Much of the Price Risk has been “Drained” from that Asset class as the demand for Raw Materials has “fallen off a cliff” and is beginning to show some signs of improvement. The Commodity Cycle, once it starts to rise, often completes in 7.5 years; plenty of time to season more true Wealth. Consider this, the Housing Cycle is a much longer cycle of 18.5 years that should Peak and Possibly Spike in the 2023/24 time frame. Investing in Housing now will allow participation in the Commodity Cycle as well as the Real Estate Cycle. Raw Materials are necessary for Construction, as they inflate, housing will follow; thus benefiting from two powerful trends.

https://michaeldouville.com/time-preserve-wealth/

 

 

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