Archive for stock market

Downside Risk for Stocks? Interview with World Famous Technical Analyst Walter Zimmermann… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on June 23, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Ecclesiastes 9:18 Wisdom is better than weapons of war, but one sinner destroys much good.

Walter Zimmermann

You have seen him on CNBC and Bloomberg Financial networks. He is Walter J. Zimmermann, technical analyst for United ICAP.

WOW! Walter Zimmermann speaks of a dangerous Stock Market, the limits of Oil, the benefits of Real Estate, and the Economy.

Is the Stock market poised for another decline? When will the Economy begin to heal? Where can an Investor be safe? World renowned Technical Analyst Walter Zimmermann discusses the latest events with Michael Douville.

https://www.icap-ta.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Intro-to-TA.pdf

michaeldouville0@gmail.com

Syndicated Columnist Library of videos and articles: www.michaeldouville.com

COVID 19 Rocks Markets… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Pestilence, Prophecy with tags , , , , , , , , on March 16, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

March 16, 2020: The stock markets were down 12-14%. President Trump expressed concern the COVID 19 response may take until August 2020. Markets did not respond favorably. This was the largest point less ever on the Dow Jones Industrial.

President Trump issued “15 Days to Slow the Spread”.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/15-days-slow-spread/

Here are the latest headlines with COVID 19

  • Crowds larger than 10 are not recommended with social distancing.
  • Schools across the United States are closing.
  • Social gatherings at theaters, restaurants, and bars are closing.
  • Oil drops below $30 per barrel.
  • San Francisco Bay Area orders residents to “shelter in place”.
  • 162 countries affected
  • Global cases at 183,000+
  • Deaths at 7,164
  • Italy cases at 27,980
  • Italy deaths at 2,158 (7.7% morbidity rate)
  • United States cases at 4,667
  • U.S. deaths at 87

San Francisco Mayor London Breed

Michael Douville has weighed in and expressed his thoughts. As always, Michael provides a common sense approach with practical advice.

One of the advantages of getting older are the episodes of Life we have been through. We have seen this before. It will be scary, it will give sleepless nights, but we are all going to come through this and be Fine! There will be stock rallies to help raise cash and there will be opportunities to buy other Investments.

We are all going to be FINE!! This will be Scary! There will be TURMOIL! This should lead to the Explosive Phase of the Real Estate Market. Remember, Real Estate is a separate asset class.

Check out Michael’s comments on the impact of the Coronavirus COVID 19.

www.michaeldouville.com

For COVID 19 Statistical data, click on the links below.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#

Dr. Charles Nenner Housing Update, Wall Street Blood Bath, March 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on March 9, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

One of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner has recently release his charts on the housing industry. Please keep in mind, this information was released before the onset of COVID 19, the coronavirus. This was also released before the Saudis and the Russians engaged in a price war in the oil markets.

Charles Nenner a World Class Market Researcher has sent me his chart of Lennar which he uses as a proxy for the US Housing Market. The chart shows a slowing until late in 2020. However, as a separate asset class this may be a great investment to earn excellent cash flow from a conservative investment.

Click on the link below for Nenner’s thoughts.

 

No one knows how badly the Coronavirus will affect the Global Economy or the Individual Family. However, the world is connected. Be prudent, take precautionary actions such as extra food, medicine, fever reducers, water, and additional cash at home. Discuss Financial exposure with your Advisor, review the asset classes.

Michael shared his thoughts a couple of weeks ago regarding the financial and economic impact of the coronavirus. These comments are more timely than ever. Click on the link below for Michael’s insights.

 

Today was a certified train wreck in the financial markets. Russia and Saudi Arabia have engaged in a war over the price of oil. The result was a crash in the price of oil. The price for a barrel of oil dropped 24% in a day. West Texas Crude settled at $31.13 per barrel.

The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were all off by over 7% today. Circuit breakers kicked in less than 5 minutes into trading and the markets were stopped for 15 minutes.

The 10 year treasury note closed below .5% or 50 basis points. The 30 year noted was below 1.0%

COVID 19 continues to grow across the globe. Italy has officially quarantined the population of the entire country.

  • 113,000+ infected globally
  • 4,000+ deaths globally
  • Italy approaching 10,000 cases
  • 112 countries and regions affected
  • 605 cases in the United States

 

Wuhan Virus Update, February 2, 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Pestilence, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , on February 2, 2020 by paulthepoke

Luke 21:11b …and in various places famines and pestilences. -Jesus

Thursday, 1/30/20: The World Health Organization finally declared a global emergency regarding the Wuhan Virus. Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization is calling “all countries to work together in a spirit of solidarity and cooperation. We are all in this together, and we can only stop it together.”

Click on the link below for the WHO complete statement and declaration.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

President Trump and the United States declared a public health emergency on Friday, 1/31/20.

“I want to emphasize that this is a serious health situation in China, but I want to emphasize that the risk to the American public is currently low. Our goal is to do all we can do to keep it that way,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield

The Wuhan Virus is starting to make an economic impact on global markets. On Friday, 1/31/20, the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the United States closed down 603.41 points, or 2.1%, to 28,256.03.

The economic impact is likely to be significant considering China’s consumption of goods as measured against the rest of the planet. Chinese financial regulators are set to provide $173 billion of liquidity when markets open on Monday, February 3, 2020.

Michael Douville has weighed in on the impact of the Wuhan Virus as well. The virus may be the tipping point for the global economy. Michael has been monitoring the slowing global economy for at least the last 6 months. Indexes show shipping around the planet is slowing. On Friday, the yield curve in the bond market inverted which indicates a slowing economy. Economic activity is halting across China because of the Wuhan Virus. Michael likes gold, silver, bonds and rental properties. As always, check with your financial consultant. Click on the link below for Michael’s comments on the Wuhan Virus impact.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fs9AOcvaWXwGaNRXcAh-DRh8k–hyliH/view

~

The following points are from various headlines across the internet. These information points are continually expanding.

  • Companies like Apple, Google, Starbucks, Ikea, and Tesla are closing operations and stores in China.
  • Global airlines are suspending flights in and out of China.
  • The U.S. State Department has alerted Americans not to travel to China.
  • Other countries limiting travel to China include Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Qatar, Turkmenistan, Singapore, New Zealand
  • North Korea and Russia have closed their borders to China.

The New York Times is providing live updates on the Wuhan Virus. The stream is loaded with all kinds of information including an embedded reporter in Wuhan. See the link below.

~

There is the following headline out of New Zealand and suppressed death numbers. Coronavirus: China accused of ‘burning bodies in secret’

The New York Post published an article indicating there may be as many as 75,000 already infected. Other news outlets globally are indicating the same.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/01/over-75000-people-in-wuhan-reportedly-may-be-infected-with-coronavirus/

~

February 2, 2020: Here is the latest update regarding the spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus… Allegedly… Numbers and data are rapidly changing.

  • 14,549 infected world wide
  • 305 deaths
  • First death reported outside of China in the Philippines
  • At least 60,000,000 people remain quarantined.
  • Virus is now reported in at least 25 countries.

Michael Douville’s 2019 Year in Review

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , on December 31, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Michael Douville provides his year in review for 2019. Michael looks forward to 2020 and emerging economic conditions that will shape the new year.

Click on the link below for the video provided.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sL6f2HBG5AMIuTYt84_tOJlMkrF0QHgU/view

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

International Economic Update with Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on August 20, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Time to wake up! Pay attention! International markets are changing quickly!

In a few days Argentina’s stocks and bonds took a nose dive. In one session, Argentina’s stock market dropped 48%! Could this be the start of dark times? Click the link below for Michael’s update.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Michael has been warning people for almost 3 years of a shift in Market Fundamentals. It is finally here. Michael is available to speak on your program or help in any way. He can be reached at 480-948-5554 or michael@michaeldouville.com

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Market Extremes… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on May 13, 2019 by paulthepoke

Esther 1:13 Then the king said to the wise men who knew the times (for this was the king’s procedure toward all who were versed in law and judgment…)

Risk has entered the market place. Metrics from John Hussman indicate the market may be heading for a wild ride. Metrics from Hussman’s work indicate the same levels of risk from the Dot Com Bubble and the late 1920’s. Rumors of trade wars and tariffs are in the news. Michael Douville posted this on his website and YouTube on 5/9/19.

5/13/19: The Dow Jones was down 617 points or 2.38%, NASDAQ was 270 points or 3.41%, S&P 500 was down 69 points or 2.41%.

Michael updates what is happening around the world and how it will impact the U.S. Understand the economic times and conditions we are living. Do you have a plan?

Click on the link below for Michael’s update.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Proceed with Caution

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on December 5, 2018 by paulthepoke

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

There is an ongoing Housing Correction, a Global Slowdown and Turmoil in Iran, Russia and Turkey. Understanding these dynamics will help you navigate the future and not only survive but prosper.

Michael released this video about a month ago. Since then, oil has dropped to $53 per barrel. Housing starts continue to decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped close to 800 points at its last close.

Know the times we are living. Have an understanding. Have a plan. Know what to do.

Click the video link below for Michael’s 3 minute broadcast.

 

https://michaeldouville.com/

 

 

Time to Assess Vulnerabilities, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on October 22, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

ice berg douville

https://michaeldouville.com

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action!


Everyone is always amazed at how quickly the Stock Market can drop! The Stock Market declined 1300 points in 7 days! Oct 3, the Dow recorded a nominal new high; in a video, I suggested that would be an outstanding time to take profits. The adage “you cannot go broke taking a profit” certainly applies. More than profits, take at least half out of Harm’s Way and reduce Risk and Exposure. Back in February, when the Stock Market dropped 3000 points in just a few weeks and then stabilized, many analysis suggested the Market would recover to record a new high.

Indeed, there was a gap on the S&P near 2830 which further suggested a return to the old highs.

The market did recover and did make a nominal new high; perhaps a “Double Top? Only for a day! After 1300 points, the question now is will the Stock Market recover and again make another nominal new high or is the Top for this Cycle already achieved? The answer should not matter; as a baby Boomer, can we really take the chance? Can we assume the Risk?

The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action! An assessment of Vulnerabilities should be conducted with your Financial Professional for your protection. By all measures, the current Stock Market has provided the participants with excellent returns; however, many metrics point to a vulnerable market. Although the current market may go considerably higher, there comes a time when Prudence demands thought; how much downside can be tolerated? There is Historic Margin debt financing the portfolios; leverage accentuates gains and creates tremendous profits in a Rising Market.

A Declining Market creates “Air Pocket” plunges as margin Calls produce stock liquidations usually at precarious moments accelerating the downside. At 65, 69, or 72 years of age and beyond, there is no time to recover losses. There is no “Long Run” left! Should a portfolio experience a 39.6% decline which represents the losses incurred in a typical cycle completion, how would your Life be affected? The market may be Vulnerable, are YOU?

There are times to be Aggressive; now is not one of them. Consider reducing exposure to Risk and increasing the Cash Flow component of your Wealth Portfolio.  Risk cannot be totally eliminated, but can be drastically reduced.  The recognition of change is a great advantage; there will be another Bull Market, it will just change asset classes. Consider accumulating very conservative rental properties in the entry level price range. Typically, there are very good opportunities close to everyone’s home. There are several strong growth markets across America that may provide conservative, consistent, cash flow for many years that may prove to be a “Lifeboat” for your Family and your Future.

https://michaeldouville.com

 

Prices Rising in Turkey, Trouble Ahead

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on October 8, 2018 by paulthepoke

The Turmoil will not start in the United States, but it will reach our shores.  The warnings are moving from inevitable Global Turmoil to Imminent Global Turmoil!

Michael’s website

The Catalyst will not start in the Equity Markets, but in the Credit and Debt Markets of the World. The Debt Markets dwarf the Equity Markets by a factor of at least 20; the Credit Market is enormous!!  Although the Turmoil will not start in the US, the US Dollar will be the cause! In an effort to Save the World, the Central Bankers reduced rates to zero or below and encouraged borrowing; encouraged squander and massive, pervasive Debt! Global rates have risen from 0.1% to over 3.0% in the US. A thirty fold increase! Thirty times more interest; thirty times more tax money to service the debt. To make matters worse, a gamble was taken; betting the US Dollar would indefinitely decline in value and Debt could be rolled over in cheaper and cheaper Dollars. Historical Cycles were ignored; the Day of Reckoning is coming as the Dollar has reversed and is now getting stronger and stronger. The equation of local currency vs the US Dollar is tipping. Not only is the payment rate trending higher, more local currency is needed to buy a US Dollar; a lot more!

Available Now-Click on Book

Not only Debt repayment will cause Turmoil, but Imports are typically expressed in International measures which is typically the US Dollar. Energy costs will skyrocket in Argentina and Turkey as their respective currencies decline vis-a-vis the US Dollar.  Oil and refined petroleum Products will become very expensive and cause hardship on the local populations. Medicine, machine parts, electronics, replacement parts will all become expensive demanding more and more of free cash flow and eventually a breaking point!

Obviously, as more and more Capital is diverted to servicing Debt and rising costs, the Economy will suffer. It will become a Negative Feed Loop Spiral! Eventually, Debt will be Defaulted affecting the Pension Funds, Hedge Funds, Banks, Mutual Funds, Annuities, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and even small family reserves. Collateral Damage will be a Contagion as Peter can no longer pay Paul who then cannot pay Mark!

Bonds will face not only Market Risk as Interest Rates rise causing a relentless decline in value, but also Credit Risk as Defaults rise and credit Quality lowers.  It is time to review holdings. It is time to re-allocate. The US Dollar cycles; it will trend lower again. Things and Real Assets will rise substantially in the US like they are now in Turkey and India. Real Things should be accumulated now while our Dollar is high. Commodities such as copper, aluminum, steel, asphalt, agriculture, farms, lumber, and residential rentals can be slowly bought. Cash flowing rentals contain these basic materials and will not only protect their value in the future, but protect the owner with an alternative cash stream when Turmoil reaches our shores.

Paul the Poke

Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God

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