Paul the Poke

Ezekiel 38:2 “Son of man, set your face toward Gog of the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh, Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him…”

Via Telegram:

#Ukraine Armed Forces Are Preparing “Offensive operations” against the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and “Ukrainian propagandists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepared and distributed on the Internet staged video materials aimed at discrediting the defenders of Donbass,” Says the official rep of the DPR army Eduard Basurin.

Czekmate Comment: Statements such as these, from separatist leaders in Ukraine and elsewhere are an important marker. I posted the story about the Gaguz in Moldova earlier today because Interfax went to pains to re-publish it in English. Casus beli for Russia to launch operations may be forming based on what you see from these movements. The economic and strategic arguments for why Russia is doing this renders these separatist instigations a phony pretext. So one ought to consider ‘big talk’ from these movements as Kremlin directed theater.

Napoleon once said “History is a set of lies that we agree upon”.

So here may be the Russian lie to launch an operation. An intervention force to restore order and humanitarian conditions in the Russophone separatist regions. Over the past 24 hours (As noted here in Czekmate) the Russian Foreign Ministry seems to have made its diplomatic themes involving the “Minsk Agreement” (Diplomatic protocol on the separatist regions of Ukraine) much more uniform. It is borne out in statements by the Russian Ambassadors to the UN and Berlin. Concurrently, separatist leaders have been making their ill-ease with their ostensible governments more plain. This is also noted in this ValorTube group.

In the past 12 hours, Russian Naval Assets have arrived in the Black Sea with more in the eastern and western Mediterranean appearing to prepare to rendezvous at sea. To arrive in force with optimal mass, the ships in question will need to continue at high speed. In the mean time, exercise areas in the black Sea have been notified to international authorities for ships and aircraft in the area. The end of these Black Sea exercises nearly coincides (19 Feb.) with the conclusions of Russian/Belarussian exercises in Belarus (20 Feb.). The same day as the ending of the Olympics.

Also announced Tuesday by Interfax – English language service, is a ‘multiweek’ exercise involving a small number of Russian Troopers in the Southern Military District. These areas are the historically restive regions of ‘Adygea, Chechnya, Dagestan, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia and Ingushetia, as well as at Russian military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.’ The later two being in Georgian territory. There can be little doubt that this is to send a message to Russia’s neighbors and any localized trouble makers that Moscow is in no mood to be messed with. These forces utilizing full equipment and presumably wartime levels of logistics, ought to be viewed more as a military constabulary among the regions where Russia has stoked previous separatist sentiment.

As before, Russia appears to be ready to go at any time should they so desire.

Again, the Olympics do not close until the 20th. As mused by your faithful Czekmate before, one wonders what agreements were struck between the two autocrats. The Beijing games are not garnering the kind of success and flash the Chinese apparatchiks envisioned. But the PRC has no shortage of national hubris and may have insisted on having the international airwaves to themselves.

Maximum lunar illumination will be on February 16th, and based on social media, it does not appear that the ground is frozen. As it stands, this would slow but not stymie an advance of an army. Add to that, rumors persist of rampant illness among the Russian frontline units along the Ukrainian frontier. Each one of these factors can be overcome, but each one comes at some kind of cost. These costs have to be considered in light of mission objectives and benefits in relation to other issues.

The decision appears to be in the hands of one man, as it has largely been since this saga began to unfold on January 20th, 2021: Vladimir Putin.