Archive for liquidity

Economic Turmoil is Coming! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on June 8, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

You will experience this only three times in your lifetime.

A recession is coming and has likely started. The “everything bubble” is beginning to pop. Third quarter is looking like it could be rough. Get ready, it is coming quickly.

What can you do to capitalize? Talk with your financial adviser.

Cash will be king! Liquidity is coming out of the system.

Housing sales are dropping! You will have the opportunity to buy homes at discounts not available since the Great Financial Crisis where we were buying homes below cost. It will be scary, you will not want to invest, but I will tell you when the time is right and Generational Wealth will be available.

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In the meantime, the direction of the Real Estate market is Down, similar to 2006. A Recession is imminent, possible a severe recession. Will a waterfall event happen?

Commercial Real Estate looks like it is going to take a beating. Office space is empty in major metropolitans.

Those who have investments in the Endangered Cities might consider speaking to their brokers; should you decide to keep your properties, the hold will be probably at least 5 years. You will do better in Florida, Texas, or Arizona, particularly here in Phoenix.

Prices in commodities are coming down.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

50% Potential Loss to the Great Triumvirate: Stocks, Bonds, and Real Estate

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 30, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Proverbs 22:16 Whoever oppresses the poor to increase his own wealth, or gives to the rich, will only come to poverty.

Michael Douville took the time to talk with President of Pento Portfolio Strategies, Michael Pento.

For those who are interested in a deep discussion about bonds, debt, and lending. How will this affect real estate, bonds, and stocks? Click on the YouTube video link below.

Michael Pento lays out the Risk in the Equity Market, the Bond Market, and the Real Estate Market: The “Great Triumvirate”.

Pento and Douville see trouble coming in the real estate market. Is the bubble popping?

Commercial real estate properties are increasing with vacancies in major cities across the United States.

The Federal Reserve is shrinking the money supply. Liquidity is drying up globally.

Michael Pento discusses the explosion of Debt and its relationship to the Gross Domestic Product, GDP. Debt is 263% of GDP!

Investors might limit their exposure to “High Beta” Stocks. Avoid technology stocks.

Pento likes short term government treasuries (3 years of less), gold, and utilities.

Interest rates have never been raised this quickly and this high. The yield curve is inverted.

How will the banking industry be affected? Personal Bank Accounts should be kept to under the FDIC approved $250,000 limit. A few months of Cash liquidity kept at home would be prudent.

Michael Pento outlines the Financial Risk coming. Pento sees a deep recession coming. The conversation flows swiftly with great and valuable content.

Michael Pento, President and Founder Pento Portfolio Strategies

www.pentoport.com

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Check out Michael Douville’s latest take on the real estate market and the economy.

Fortunes will be LOST! Fortunes will be MADE. Timing is Everything. Our timing model is showing that the Real Estate Market will be showing evidence of the slowdown by the end of the 2nd quarter or maybe early 3rd Quarter of 2023.

Prices could decline in Out-Migration States by much more than Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Could prices decline over 30%? My Timing Model forecasts that possibility.

Pending home sales are slowing and Builders are selling like crazy as they attempt to liquidate their properties. They are scared to death and will make deals.

By buying rates down and making concessions, builders are going to have trouble with their lenders.

The Real Estate market has probably peaked and the 2nd and final Peak is forming now!

A recession is coming with a likely hard landing. The recession has likely started.

Michael discusses cities at risk across America due to crime, poor management and leadership. Large, corporate businesses are leaving major metropolitans. Tax bases and revenues are decreasing in these cities.

Pensions are losing their value in Europe due to negative interest rate bonds.

Website: https://michaeldouville.com/

Credit Event Coming??? Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 25, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

Are we entering another Credit Event? I remember Lehman Brothers and Bear Stears. These events start slow and gather speed until things start to cascade.

Germany’s Deutsche Bank is in the news. Credit Default Swaps (insurance) are soaring! Tier 1 Bonds are crashing. Did Deutsche Bank receive $60 billion in Federal Reserve Foreign Repo Agreements?

European banks hold bonds yielding less than 0%. They are losing money big time as interest rates go up.

Global liquidity and money are in short supply. Liquidity is the fuel of the economy. Bank deposits are decreasing. Things are getting more difficult to get a loan.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is focused on lowering inflation. He says interest rates are not coming down any time soon.

Michael Douville recommends reading an article, Too Small To Not Fail, A Short History of the World by Danielle DiMartino Booth. For those not familiar, Danielle is a former Federal Reserve Insider. She is the CEO & Chief Strategist, Quill Intelligence LLC, and Economist.

Instead of mass mobilizing against Powell as if he was the reincarnation of King Louis XVI, why not grow up? In the absence of a solution without consequences, he’s made an attempt to steer the economy into the first recession from which it has the slightest chance of exiting without the dead weight of zombie companies, without the corrupt practice of anointing Wall Street’s kingpins the de facto makers of monetary policy. A wise man once said, “There is no such thing as a free lunch.”

Damn right there’s not. Perhaps we accept the truth in this wisdom and, in doing so, the consequences of our actions. -Danielle DiMartino Booth

https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/p/too-small-to-not-fail-history

Check out Michael’s analysis, economic news, charts, and commentary below on the YouTube video. Click on the red play button.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

The Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on February 11, 2023 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him.

In the Business World, Love does not make the World go round, it is LIQUIDITY that makes the world go round. Without liquidity, the Business World slows. The quicker it is withdrawn, the quicker we head into Recession.

Between March 2020 and March 2022, the Treasury and The Federal Reserve added $10 Trillion. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think Inflation may appear? Well now the “Powers to be” are removing Liquidity at a startling rate.

Places like Sri Lanka, and Lebanon are encountering civil disruption because food and fuel cannot be purchased. Even the Swiss National Bank has received a cash infusion from the FED.

The Inverted Yield is rivaling Paul Volcker’s era and the Fed is not through yet. The cost of Capital has doubled or tripled.

I believe the Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession.

Caution is advised.

Russia: An Emerging Market

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 17, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

For evidence pointing to modern day Russia, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/04/ezekiel-38-who-is-magog/

Modern day, 21st century Russians refer to themselves as the ancient Scythians or Magogians. See the link below.

https://paulthepoke.com/2017/08/23/trend-update-putin-netanyahu-meet-in-sochi-russia-august-2017/

https://michaeldouville.com

Russia has an impressive military with Nuclear Weapons, but when it comes to Economic prowess, it is an Emerging Market! It has been only 20 years since Russia collapsed financially and it is still working through the economic disruption. Although blessed with huge Natural Resources, Russia is still very dependent on Foreign Capital to develop it’s mining,  gas and oil fields.  Foreign Capital is needed not only for developing the resources themselves, but the infrastructure to bring them to market.  Global Markets dictate much of Russia’s income as the price of basic materials fluctuate with the Business Cycle. As one of the World’s leading oil producers, Russia has benefited from the recent run up in Oil prices which are expressed in US Dollars. Basic Materials are also expressed in US Dollars, but are very sensitive to demand dynamics; much, much more sensitive. Dollar dependency is a two edged sword for although the demand for the energy component is less elastic, the price can fluctuate wildly.  The price of Natural Resources can plummet as the Global Slowdown intensifies; as with any Emerging Market repayment of Foreign Loans becomes more and more difficult.

The BRICs were the darling of the Investment Community. Now Brazil and India are struggling. China financed much of it’s Capital needs with internal financing through it’s Shadow Banking and while these loans are certainly at risk, they are less visible. Russia has done much better than many Emerging Market Nations, but Russia is still affected by a rising US Dollar and rising Global Interest Rates. The balance of Trade impacts the International repayments. A Global Slowdown is underway and many Emerging Markets are at risk of depleting Dollar Reserves and thus entering a Liquidity Crisis. Which leads to Turkey!

Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken.

Turkey, along with Argentina and Brazil, is rapidly running out of Dollar Reserves. Turkey imports much more than it exports and as it’s currency declines, purchasing power falls dramatically.  Turkey needs Cash to not only finance Government offices, public utilities,  and to service domestic needs, but any recent Military adventures such as last year’s excursion into Iraq and just recently Syria. Everything needs to be financed. The Credit lines from Western Nations and the US come with restrictions which the Turkish Government seems to be unwilling to accept. Turkey is now in overtures to Russia and China to provide US Dollars to solve it’s Liquidity demands. Currently, Turkey is involved in operations with Russia in Syria; an operation that benefits both Geo-politically, but is adverse to Turkish Allies objectives.  This becomes a very interesting puzzle!

Russia and China can forestall Turkey’s liquidity crisis for awhile; a few months, maybe a year. However, both are still Emerging Markets themselves and a prolonged Global downturn will inevitably affect any extension of Credit.

A Global Downturn has been evident for months. Demand for natural Resources and eventually Energy will fall, slowly at first then much more rapidly. Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken. There is still time to prepare; payoff debt, build reserves, store things like food, water, and medicine.  As quickly as possible, build a personal cash reserve held outside of financial institutions and as important, build a Financial Lifeboat of Cash Flowing assets.

https://michaeldouville.com

Remember, the reason for Russia’s future invasion of Israel is economic. Russia will seek to take Israel’s resources.

Ezekiel 38:13 Sheba and Dedan and the merchants of Tarshish and all its leaders will say to you, ‘Have you come to seize spoil? Have you assembled your hosts to carry off plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods, to seize great spoil?’

 

The Other Side of the Peak…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 9, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelProverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear and increase in learning, and a man of understanding will acquire wise counsel…

From the lows in March of 2009 to the lofty levels of today, by any metric, the Stock Market has done extremely well. Hardly anyone caught the very bottom, but even those that came close have doubled or tripled their investment; very well done! Lucky Investors have ridden the S&P and The Dow up to 2582 and 23,517 respectively and the ride UP has been FUN! Please pay very close attention to this chart, the Other Side is a completely different World. The higher the Peak becomes, the steeper the Other Side! There is no Plateau!

In order to preserve the Gains, a Courageous decision MUST be made; when to EXIT! Greed dictates grabbing every extra dollar one can; Prudence cautions that it is not what you make, but what you keep that counts! The climb to the Peak is exhilarating, even intoxicating. The Fall is depressing. Unfortunately, typical Human fashion,  the average Investor believes that the “Peak” will be recognized and they will escape in plenty of time to capture the Maximum gains. This “Time is Different” always becomes the Mantra! The brutal lessons of History teach that most Investors ride the wave up and then ride the wave down; this time the Fall may be devastating. The Central Banks of the World have exaggerated the Bubble with their Trillions of Dollars of Liquidity. The Federal Reserve has stated they will begin removing liquidity the 4th Quarter of 2017 at the rate of $10 Billion a month growing to $510 Billion withdrawn in 2018. The World Central Banks have pledged to reduce their liquidity injections from $2 Trillion annually to ZERO by April 2018.

Without Global Central Banks participation Risk will rise substantially. The Doctrine of Enough (or How Much do I Need?) prescribes taking the profits gained and moving to another Asset Class; reducing risk. Bonds have traditionally been the choice of risk adverse Investors. However, the Debt Binge of most Government Entities as well as many Corporate Entities make Bonds as risky or maybe even more so than Equities; this Asset Class should also be avoided.  Precious Metals and the larger class of Real Assets and Commodities are just starting to bottom after years of decline; the process has not yet completed. They are at or near the lowest values in decades.

Recognizing the coming shift in Cycles is not easy. However, the basic industrial components such as Iron Ore, Copper, Lumber, Oil,  and Aluminum will soon cycle off their bottoms. These are the components of Single Family homes which as the raw materials rise, house prices will also rise. Housing unlike Gold has a “Use Factor” of “Shelter” and is a necessary component of Life. Accumulating Single Family homes and providing “Shelter” by leasing them to families may not only transfer profits from an aging, riskier asset class to an emerging class, but also provide conservative, consistent, and monthly Income to weather an Economic Storm.

Maricopa County in Arizona is still ranked as one of the best long term Real Estate Markets in the Nation. Your Core Real Estate Lifeboat may provide Generations of Wealth and Income.  Our website is https://michaeldouville.com and our first consultation is always free.

 

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