Paul the Poke

Proverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear and increase in learning, and a man of understanding will acquire wise counsel…

From the lows in March of 2009 to the lofty levels of today, by any metric, the Stock Market has done extremely well. Hardly anyone caught the very bottom, but even those that came close have doubled or tripled their investment; very well done! Lucky Investors have ridden the S&P and The Dow up to 2582 and 23,517 respectively and the ride UP has been FUN! Please pay very close attention to this chart, the Other Side is a completely different World. The higher the Peak becomes, the steeper the Other Side! There is no Plateau!

In order to preserve the Gains, a Courageous decision MUST be made; when to EXIT! Greed dictates grabbing every extra dollar one can; Prudence cautions that it is not what you make, but what you keep that counts! The climb to the Peak is exhilarating, even intoxicating. The Fall is depressing. Unfortunately, typical Human fashion,  the average Investor believes that the “Peak” will be recognized and they will escape in plenty of time to capture the Maximum gains. This “Time is Different” always becomes the Mantra! The brutal lessons of History teach that most Investors ride the wave up and then ride the wave down; this time the Fall may be devastating. The Central Banks of the World have exaggerated the Bubble with their Trillions of Dollars of Liquidity. The Federal Reserve has stated they will begin removing liquidity the 4th Quarter of 2017 at the rate of $10 Billion a month growing to $510 Billion withdrawn in 2018. The World Central Banks have pledged to reduce their liquidity injections from $2 Trillion annually to ZERO by April 2018.

Without Global Central Banks participation Risk will rise substantially. The Doctrine of Enough (or How Much do I Need?) prescribes taking the profits gained and moving to another Asset Class; reducing risk. Bonds have traditionally been the choice of risk adverse Investors. However, the Debt Binge of most Government Entities as well as many Corporate Entities make Bonds as risky or maybe even more so than Equities; this Asset Class should also be avoided.  Precious Metals and the larger class of Real Assets and Commodities are just starting to bottom after years of decline; the process has not yet completed. They are at or near the lowest values in decades.

Recognizing the coming shift in Cycles is not easy. However, the basic industrial components such as Iron Ore, Copper, Lumber, Oil,  and Aluminum will soon cycle off their bottoms. These are the components of Single Family homes which as the raw materials rise, house prices will also rise. Housing unlike Gold has a “Use Factor” of “Shelter” and is a necessary component of Life. Accumulating Single Family homes and providing “Shelter” by leasing them to families may not only transfer profits from an aging, riskier asset class to an emerging class, but also provide conservative, consistent, and monthly Income to weather an Economic Storm.

Maricopa County in Arizona is still ranked as one of the best long term Real Estate Markets in the Nation. Your Core Real Estate Lifeboat may provide Generations of Wealth and Income.  Our website is https://michaeldouville.com and our first consultation is always free.

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