Paul the Poke

1 Samuel 2:7 The LORD makes poor and rich; He brings low, He also exalts.

Proverbs 3:13-16 How blessed is the man who finds wisdom and the man who gains understanding. For her profit is better than the profit of silver and her gain better than fine gold. She is more precious than jewels; and nothing you desire compares with her. Long life is in her right hand; in her left hand are riches and honor.

The US enjoys the Global Reserve Currency status. Virtually all of the major business transactions throughout the world are priced in Dollars. Sovereign Wealth Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Funds, Corporate funds need to “Park” billions and billions of transactional cash! The ONLY currency liquid and vast enough is the US Dollar! Not Lire, Not Yuan, Not Euro, not the Yen, only the US Dollar. It is stable, safe, liquid and accepted around the World. International pricing expresses the transactional cost in US Dollars of oil, copper, grain, lead, tallow, butter, milk,  beef, etc. along with virtually all International agreements. The dollar does fluctuate, but pegging to the US Dollar standardizes Global transactions.

A weak US Dollar is good for the Global Economic community. The US Dollar was 102.21  October 1, 2016, just prior to the Presidential Elections. The World experienced “A cyclic upturn in a structural downturn” exactly as ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) forecasted.  The Dollar then declined to 88.25 in February 2018; which may have been a cyclic bottom.  A weaker dollar is good for Emerging Market Economies. Raw Material sales translate into more local currency which then can buy more local and regional  goods and services. Local inflation is reduced.  During the past decade, Sovereigns around the World have gorged on cheap loans priced well below 1%, some even negative. With a declining US Dollar, not only are the loans Historically cheap, a 20% decline in currency exchange equates to repaying only $80 million of the $100 million borrowed plus receiving a higher price for exports usually oil, copper, aluminum, etc.

photo: MarketWatch

Like all things, the US Dollar cycles. It does not remain cheap forever. Timing becomes important. The US Dollar has risen and risen very fast from a possible low of 88 just a few months ago to a recent high of 96. This cycle of peaks and valleys is not a new phenomena; this cycle repeats historically. What is new is the record DEBT pervasive throughout the World. Debtors have enjoyed the discount of a declining US Dollar; that is now gone. Interest rates at or near zero are gone in the US and scheduled to be gone soon everywhere else. Obscene amounts of DEBT have propelled the good fortunes of virtually everyone from Credit Cards and HELOCs for citizens to massive Public and Sovereign debt in EVERY Village, Hamlet, Town, City, Municipality, County, State and Nation on the face of the PLANET!!

A strong Dollar will reduce the value of exports thereby slowing the economy in exporting Nations. A negative spiral’s outcome is a slowing of all global economies. This then results  in declining demand that ripples throughout the World. That is bad enough; add in rapidly rising rates and there lies a recipe for Catastrophe! The obscene debt is rarely paid off, rarely even reduced. The debt is rolled over or refinanced. A rise to only 2% equates to multiples of 10 to 20 times the debt service. There is going to be  a very rude awakening very soon!

Debt will default and these defaults will accelerate throughout the world pressuring rates even higher as nonpayment risk pressures returns. Bonds and Bond Funds will be at HUGE RISK. All manners of Debt will be affected. Rates will rise and rise quicker than anyone anticipates. Get out of Debt! Payoff Credit Cards, Helocs, anything that floats with an Index. Refinance into fixed rate LONG TERM debt.  Raise cash!  The dollar cycle peak is forecast to reach 103.8 as a typical permutation in a typical cycle.  This may not be TYPICAL! Turmoil could drive the US Dollar to 120 causing massive disruptions!  For those aware, for those prepared, Generational Wealth can be achieved when the cycle again turns down……

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