Archive for Debt

Deutsche Bank In Trouble… Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , on June 4, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Michael Douville talks about the financial trouble at Deutsche Bank. A failure at Deutsche Bank can impact economies worldwide.

 

I have been Blessed! Many of my colleagues and long time friends have not! I am continually exposed to those that for one reason or another did not plan or expect to get OLD! Unfortunately, when we really get honest, this predicament includes almost everyone! The same strategy that I used to find Financial Freedom for myself still works and I have accepted the Mission to change as many lives as I can. I am here and my Team is here to help!

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

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The Next Recession will be EPIC! Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 24, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3

1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

2b a time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted;
3b a time to break down, and a time to build up;
5a a time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together;
6 a time to seek, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 a time to tear, and a time to sew…

MichaelSomething has changed! A Global down turn is underway; it can be seen in the Industrial statistics, the”Yield Curve” Spreads, the Baltic Dry Index. The slowdown can be seen in declining  Home Mortgage Applications and increasingly higher Auto loan delinquencies;  much, much higher credit card debt with slower repayments. Not surprisingly, the Spring Real Estate market in many regions of the US are exhibiting slowing sales when Property sales should be seasonally expanding. These are all signs of an aging Business Cycle.

This happens in Free Markets; it happened in 2010, 2012, and a longer decline in 2015. Each decline was met with Global Central Bank interference in the form of massive Liquidity injections via purchases in the Equity Markets and massive purchases of all forms of Bonds and Debt Instruments. Maybe a not so “Free market”.

Something has changed! Instead of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), rates are rising! Instead of Massive Global Central Bank purchasing in a declining market, the Federal Reserve is actually selling! In April of 2017, the Central Banks were purchasing at the rate on $1.7 Trillion Dollars; tapering in April 2018 to an alleged big fat ZERO! The ECB is still caught supporting the European Markets as is the Bank of Japan for the Japanese Markets. The simple reason is that no else is willing to enter theses markets; no one entering at the current reduced and manipulated rates!

Something has Changed! Without the Financial Credit Pulse of coordinated Global Central Banks, Volatility and RISK have reappeared. The support has been removed and The Federal Reserve has announced not only are they NOT purchasing, but they are selling; $8 Billion Feb 5, 2018 alone. It is time to Pay Attention!!!

Recession-ahead

Your Wealth is at Risk! Americans 55 years and older  have a 70% of their Nest Egg in the Stock Market and 20% in the Bond Market; rising rates devastate Bond Funds! Those approaching retirement age are not “in it for the long Haul!” There is not enough time to recoup losses before the funds are needed.  There are times to be Aggressive and times to be Conservative; the Fed has transparently announced their intentions. This may be a time to be very conservative. In fact, one does not need to be fully invested 100% of the time. Without support, the Markets are free to act the way Markets are suppose to act. The next downturn could be EPIC!

Something has changed! Your Future is at stake! Now might be a very appropriate time to review your goals and concerns with your Financial Professional. Maybe an “Exit Strategy” should be developed with a goal to transfer into different asset classes.

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Time to Raise Cash…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Leviticus 19:35-36 You shall do no wrong in judgment, in measurement of weight, or capacity. You shall have just balances, just weights, a just ephah, and a just hin; I am the LORD your God, who brought you out from the land of Egypt.

Proverbs 11:1 A false balance is an abomination to the LORD, but a just weight is his delight.

Currency manipulation is global issue. The above verses are two of many examples provided in Scripture. All currencies are not balanced the same. Imagine that, the world’s economy is out of balance in regards to the standard of the Bible. All currencies are not created equal. There are global economic consequences when standards are out of balance and there is reconfiguration. God is not a big fan.

 

Michael

Many Researchers have been forecasting a rising US Dollar. This seems like an impossibility, but technical methodology from several different disciplines are coming to the same conclusion. A top researcher in March placed a 103.8 target from 88.1; currently, the dollar has risen to 92.46. Should the target be exceeded, a Spike could develop going much higher. The Dollar rose .7% on May 1, 2018 alone.  A strong dollar will pressure the repayments of debt across the Globe in an environment of struggling Municipalities, States, and Sovereign debtors. A stronger dollar will not only change the repayments dynamics, but the exports in Emerging Market Countries are affected as Commodities expressed in US Dollars lose value.

A stronger Dollar is enhanced not only by the perception that the US Economy will be stronger than any other, but also by the Interest Rate differential across the Globe and the avowed Federal Reserve policy of raising short term rates. Higher rates from both the Federal Reserve and the LIBOR affect 40-60% of all Global Debt; currently exceeding the 2008 Debt Record and now over $217 Trillion Dollars. Charles Nenner called the 10 year Treasury low at 1.6% in July of 2016. The trend line from 1981 has been broken at the 2.65% level and has now exceeded 3%; better than an 85% increase. With the trend line broken, rates could rise swiftly and approach 4.5% faster than thought possible. Normalization is occurring as Central Bank intervention recedes. Normal could easily be 5-6%; a double from here.

Prices in asset classes will be affected. Housing prices will be compressed as rates rise; Home buyers buy based on payments. Higher rates equal lower affordability; some Luxury Markets are already affected!  Equity prices will be affected as repatriated funds are reduced inversely with a stronger dollar. The US Dollar has depreciated 24% since the Presidential election. Take for example a US manufactured auto sold for 20,000 Euros in Germany in December 2016; the same car sold for 20,000 Euros in December 2017 netted the US Manufacturer 20+% more profit due to the Dollar decline; great news for Stock Prices. Bad news when the US Dollar rises; the same formula works negatively in reverse. Look for earnings to decline; stocks are correlated to earnings. Need I mention Bonds? Higher rates will decimate Bond values as well as higher rates will cause many more defaults across the Globe, again affecting the value of Fixed Income. Commodities will also be negatively affected by a spiking US Dollar as it will take fewer Dollars to purchase in local Currency as well as higher rates will certainly curb demand.

What to do? Everything cycles! Raise cash to purchase assets at lower US pricing. Research is indicating it will probably be a Spike; vicious, but not exceedingly long term. This will present HUGE opportunities for those prepared. Every Investor has personal goals. Review your portfolio and make the proper adjustments.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com

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Global Conglomerates Falling!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on February 13, 2018 by paulthepoke

Romans 13:8 Owe no one anything, except to love each other, for the one who loves another has fulfilled the law.

Michael

HNA Group of Hainan, China was founded in 2000. Flexing the new found strength of the Chinese Economy, the Company embarked on a multi-year buying spree using highly leveraged Corporate Bond programs to acquire Premium Worldwide companies. HNA has taken huge positions in Hilton Worldwide with reports that it’s ownership has risen to 25%, a 10% stake in Deutche Bank, the largest Bank in Germany and a Global Institution, and Prime Commercial Real Estate in Manhattan, San Francisco, Chicago, and Minneapolis with billions of Financed Dollars!  Reports are now surfacing that HNA is unable to service the debt and Liquidation of assets is starting.

Global Debt has risen far beyond the then record debt of the Great Financial Crisis. Conglomerates, States, Municipalities, and Sovereign Nations have GORGED on cheap rates and tricky financing. These Borrowers are no different than any Household; eventually Debt OVERWHELMS and a period of adjustment ensues. The adjustment usually consists of defaults on loans and bonds causing financial stress to not only the Borrower, but also the Lender that has obligations that must be met from the intended loan servicing. Insurance Companies with Annuity Policies, Health Policies, and Life Insurance Policies as well as Pension Funds with monthly obligations to Retirees will be placed at Risk. Banks and financial institutions may be at risk. Often these Institutions develop a lending relationship and assume too much risk by being the Prime Lender; huge transaction profits initially, then disaster eventually!

Should a Global Slowdown appear and there are indications that one has started, other Highly Leveraged formerly Global Conglomerate Darlings will Fall. The Globe is very intertwined; when Hanjin Shipping of South Korea went Bankrupt, Landesbank in Germany was affected with huge Hanjin debt. Steinhoff of South Africa is in trouble and US Banks are a risk of losing $1 Billion Dollars in loans. Other Chinese firms that have been buying, and buying, and buying are also in trouble. Dalian Wanda, Sunac, Le Eco with massive debt have been mentioned as struggling. Everything is fine until it is not! Leverage allows for enormous profits when all is good, but make a miscalculation, a marketing mistake, or associate with the wrong counter party and Debt will be RELENTLESS. Already, Economic Powerhouse South Korea has reported that the 4th Quarter of 2017 printed not a growth slowdown, but an actual Contraction!

Currently, the Mantra has been “Coordinated Global Growth”! If one looks “Under the Hood”, there are cracks beginning to form. Your FUTURE is at Stake! Check you finances, your debts, your assets, your Insurance and Annuity Policies, and your Pension Provider. There is still time to develop “Plan B”. However, Time may be Running Out!

Contact Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com.

 

Money Troubles Breed Very Bad Judgment…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on December 26, 2017 by paulthepoke

1 Timothy 6:10 For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil, for which some have strayed from the faith in their greediness, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.

My Grandfather lived on a Farm in Minnesota. He grew his own vegetables and a raised a few chickens. He had a very limited Income, but had all of the money he needed. My Grandfather owned his Farm, did not have a credit card, nor a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit), nor a Margin Account; he was an extremely Happy Man!

moneytroubles

Do you find that you can’t sleep at night? Are you always on edge? Arguing with your spouse and yelling at the kids? Are you drinking more than you should, but need the alcohol to “take the edge off”. Financial stress is generally the root cause of Marital Discord, Child Abuse, Alcoholism, Drug Abuse, and Workplace Strife and Violence. Debt is the cause; the opium pervasive in our society. Credit can be a very useful tool to enhance and build Wealth; it can also destroy Families.

Debt is insidious and pervasive; there is enormous temptation to indulge today and book that lavish vacation or lease that expensive car to feel important and look successful. After all, you only pay and pay and pay for months or years. You can have all these things and more; just allow your work, your ingenuity, and your sacrifice to benefit you not the Bank! Get out of DEBT! Then use the money that is NOT going to the Banks for your Future! The Banks will Hate that!

Set a goal of Debt Freedom. Once started, the savings start to build quickly. Start by cutting expenses: clean your own house, eat meals at home with the family, rent DVD’s or online entertainment like Netflix or Amazon Prime to reduce the Cable bill, cut your own grass, clean your own car, downgrade your car to a good clean economy car like a Toyota Camry or Honda Accord rather than a Mercedes or BMW. Reduce or eliminate every expense and use the savings to start to pay down credit cards, student loans, HELOCs, and any personal debt. Review Investment debt and refinance for better terms. Sacrifice for just a few short years and the debt will go away. Once the Debt is gone, keep up the habits and start to build reserves; this was also known to the Ancients as “SAVINGS”!

Do not reward yourself with a renewed indulgence in Debt! You can reward yourself with Investments for your future. Investments that will PAY you; a big change from Debt! Accumulating cash flowing assets will become easier as they add to your Wealth. After you have been disciplined in your Financial Habits, you will recognize the moment you have earned the right to indulge, the right to upgrade to First Class or the Penthouse. At that moment, you will realize, you have all the money you need and you will sleep very well at night! If you are lucky, you might even be Happy!

 

 

Trend Update: Shemitah Years Ends, September 2015

Posted in Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on August 23, 2015 by paulthepoke

Deuteronomy 15:1-2 At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the LORD’S remission has been proclaimed.

stocktrader

Full disclosure: This post was written one week before recent stock market sell off for week ending 8/21/15.

“remission of debts…” In the original Hebrew text “of debts” is not present. “of debts” was added by the translators. Shemitah is the Hebrew word for remission. Shemitah as defined by Strong’s Concordance means: cancellation of debts, letting drop of exactions, (temporary) remitting, release (from debt).

Shemitah comes from the root word shamat.

We are approaching the end of a civil year per God’s calendar. This past year has been unique. It has been a Shemitah or Sabbatical year. It is the seventh year of a set of seven years. God sets a seventh year aside for the land to rest. He also has economic provisions for the remission, cancellation, and release of debt.

https://paulthepoke.com/2014/10/26/sabbatical-yearshemitah-part-3/

The Hebrew civic new year started on Rosh Hashanah, Tishri 1, in the fall of 2014, specifically, at sundown on Wednesday, September 24, 2014 on our Gregorian calendar.

https://paulthepoke.com/2014/08/20/trend-update-sabbaticalshemitah-year-august-2014/

https://paulthepoke.com/2014/10/01/trend-update-sabbaticalshemitah-yearrecord-harvest-october-2014/

Elul, the last month of the Hebrew civic year, has begun as of the weekend of August 15, 2015 (Gregorian calendar).

The last day of the Hebrew civic year ends sunset Sunday, September 13, 2015. Elul 29 marks the end of the month and civic year for Israel. This will conclude a Shemitah year.

Incidentally, the end of the year is marked with a partial solar eclipse. Genesis 1:14 Then God said, “Let there be lights in the expanse of the heavens to separate the day from the night, and let them be for signs and for seasons and for days and years… The Hebrew word for “sign” is owth. Per Strong’s Concordance owth means: a distinguishing mark, banner, remembrance, miraculous sign, omen, or warning.

Jewish rabbis teach when the sun is in eclipse on God’s appointed holidays, it is a bad omen for the world (no Biblical support for this teaching).

…because the LORD’S remission has been proclaimed.

So does God still take this seriously? Does recent history validate this seven year pattern of debt forgiveness and economic release? Let’s subtract by seven years at a time.

The greatest crash in stock market history took place on September 29, 2008. This event took place on the last day of a Shemitah year, Elul 29 on a Hebrew calendar.

The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 took place during a Shemitah year. On September 17, 2001, the Dow Jones Index lost 684 points. This date was the last day of the Hebrew civic year, Elul 29, a Shemitah year.

The bond market crash of 1994 took place during a Shemitah year.

The Black Monday stock market crash of 1987 took place immediately after the Shemitah year of rest.

The Mystery of the Shemitah, Jonathan Cahn.

Let me be clear. I am not saying something is going to happen from sunset September 13 through sunset September 14, 2015. God is not obligated to do anything. God is in control and has His time table. The pattern of recent history has become more precise and focal to Elul 29 on a Shemitah year.

The point of the Shemitah is to turn and trust in God. He will provide.

Make what you want of recent economic history in Shemitah years. Make your own informed decision. Maybe it is coincidence or chance…but it does follow God’s law and economic pattern.

The world is swimming in trillions (1,000,000,000,000) of dollars of debt. Some estimates are upwards of $223,000,000,000,000.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/11/number-of-the-week-total-world-debt-load-at-313-of-gdp/

Lookout below IF God has His release of debt. The timing is right for mid-September, 2015. 

…because the LORD’S remission has been proclaimed.

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