Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God
Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him.
In the Business World, Love does not make the World go round, it is LIQUIDITY that makes the world go round. Without liquidity, the Business World slows. The quicker it is withdrawn, the quicker we head into Recession.
Between March 2020 and March 2022, the Treasury and The Federal Reserve added $10 Trillion. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think Inflation may appear? Well now the “Powers to be” are removing Liquidity at a startling rate.
Places like Sri Lanka, and Lebanon are encountering civil disruption because food and fuel cannot be purchased. Even the Swiss National Bank has received a cash infusion from the FED.
The Inverted Yield is rivaling Paul Volcker’s era and the Fed is not through yet. The cost of Capital has doubled or tripled.
I believe the Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession.
“You who boast in the Law, through your breaking the Law, do you dishonor God? –Romans 2:23
Scripture: 2 Corinthians
Doctrinal Emphasis: Overview and Themes of 2 Corinthians
A significant theme of the second letter to the Corinthians is Paul’s defense of his apostleship. His credentials are defined throughout the epistle. He was appointed by God (1:1).
False teachers and false doctrine are addressed by Paul. Not one to shy away, he takes this issue head on and full steam ahead. False teachers were undermining Paul’s work in the church (11:4). Paul answers his accusers in Chapters 10-12:13. Paul withstood personal attacks on his character, bravery, and speaking skills. He offers a defense which is motivated by his love for Christ (10:1, 10:17) and concern for believers (Chapter 11).
Paul addresses the issue of money in Chapters 8 and 9. In short, fund raising should be completed with a sense of purpose, organization, and accountability. As Christians, we should give cheerfully (9:7). We are to be mindful and generous of fellow believers and their needs in other parts of the world.
Suffering is a hallmark of Paul’s apostleship. To say he had “a thorn in his flesh” is putting it mildly. He was persecuted and jailed many times over. He escaped with his life on many occasions. Paul was expelled from cities and left for dead. Riots resulted because of his belief in Christ and the stance he took. He received 39 lashes five times, was beaten with a rod three times, stoned once, shipwrecked three times, and nearly drowned. He faced dangers from robbers, fellow countrymen, foreigners, false teachers, wildlife, and sea life. Paul was often hungry, thirsty, cold, naked, weary, and suffered pain (2 Corinthians 11:23-27).
Deuteronomy 15:1-2 At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the LORD’S remission has been proclaimed.
The “Seasonally Adjusted” employment numbers came in higher than expected. This will virtually guarantee another Fed Rate Hike into an already struggling Economy. Manufacturing jobs are decreasing. Job openings are decreasing.
Chicago PMI is below 50 to 45 indicating contraction. Orders for manufacturing are slower. Dr. Copper is dropping indicating a recession is coming. People are taking on more consumer debt with credit cards.
European inflation is over 10%. The cost of energy continues to increase. The Euro is under pressure and declining in value.
In a previous video, I mentioned hiking into a declining economy has always resulted in a Recession. If the Fed hiked in September, I expected a Severe Recession; further hikes will result in further deterioration of the Economy into something that may be much worse that a Severe Recession!!!!
Mortgage applications are at a 25-year low and in Phoenix, there are already rumors of staff cuts at local lenders. Get ready for a phenomenal buying opportunity; not yet but coming.
Dr. Charles Nenner believes there will be a bounce in the Equity and Bond Markets too. He looks to late October into November for the bounce. Be nimble and quick, it is just a bounce in the markets.
The Federal Reserve has it all under control (sarcasm).
Inflation will no longer be a concern in the coming months. Is inflation peaking? Food, energy, and housing inflation continues to rise.
Your Job is going to be your concern. The Federal Reserve is using the Strategy of Demand Destruction to control Inflation. They know that Severe Recessions KILL Inflation. It also kills jobs, and Businesses, investments, futures…
Real wages are decreasing. People have less money.
More Interest rate hikes are likely to come. Pay off your debts. The cost of money is going up.
It may be awhile. At some point, opportunity is coming. Be prepared and ready!
Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.
Proverbs 14:16 One who is wise is cautious and turns away from evil, but a fool is reckless and careless.
Cash is Trash? Think Again! I have been in many Stock Cycles, many Bond Cycles, through a few 18-year Real Estate Cycles and having a Cash Reserve on hand to insure against credit line restriction is good business, So Cash is not always Trash. Cash is also a separate asset class.
When the Economy gets in trouble, the Banks will take back their CREDIT LINES!
Having cash, savings, checking, and bills: $1, $5, $10 dollar bills, is reassuring to carry you through any slow period. We have all done well in the last couple of years, maybe it’s time to take some profit or refinance and take some cash.
I have been suggesting maybe it is time to take a little money off the TABLE! Trees do not grow to the sky, and it is often nice to have some cash to supplement through a soft patch or use for an Opportunity! Cash is not always TRASH!
However, DO NOT SPEND this money, the cash is for opportunities or reserves.
Click on the YouTube video below for the details.
When the Recession hit in 2020 the Stock Market dropped like a rock, and it was difficult to get out. More and more of my clients have their Asset Allocation overweighted in the Stock Market. The Stock Market has had a very good run and perhaps it is time to take a profit and place the Capital in another ASSET CLASS!
World famous cyclical economist Charles Nenner weighs in on the market with his proprietary charts.
Michael reviews where he thinks we are in the 18 year Real Estate Cycle.
Real Estate Rentals add diversification, Cash Flow, Capital Gains, and are a separate asset class. If you or your clients are overweighted in Equities, perhaps change Assets to Real Estate. Real Estate and especially Rental Real Estate is “Counter Cyclical” to the Stock Market and often Capital will flow out of one Asset Class into another. Real Estate often benefits! Self-Directed IRA’s and Self-Directed 401K’s are ideal. Real Estate Rentals not only provide an excellent Cash Flow, but also act as an Inflation Hedge.
Michael addresses charts from the Federal Reserve. In Q1 of 2020, there was $6.3 Trillion of stimulus unleashed into the Economy and that ignited INFLATION! Once worker make $20 an hour, they are not going back to $12 an hour.
Are economic bubbles beginning to pop? The economy appears to be cooling.
Please check with your Financial Advisor to discuss what is right for you. I do not advocate that all of your assets be in Real Estate, nor do I believe all of your assets should be in the Stock Market.
Click on the YouTube video below for the details.
Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.
1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.
Proverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear, and will increase learning; and a man of understanding shall attain unto wise counsels…
China has 65 million vacant housing units. Will this affect us? How will this affect the global economy?
Check out Michael’s comments on the situation in China and their faltering real estate company, Evergrande. They have missed debt payments for two weeks now. China state backed firms are being asked to buy Evergrande assets. This company is five times the size of Lehman Brothers. Remember 2008???
China is also having significant issues with their power grid. Coal is in short supply. Factories are shutting down across the country.
Inflation is driving the price of housing higher. The Phoenix housing market is up 33% in the last year alone. Prices around the United States are increasing as well. Michael says prices will go higher. How high will prices go?
The government continues to pump more money into the market. The government promises to pump even more money in the market! Commodity prices continue to go up. The end result is more inflation and prices go higher across the board.
Have a plan! Talk to your financial adviser!
To be involved, to ask any questions, for us to help acquire a few rentals for you in Phoenix:
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) points to an Improving Economy. The Economy is recovering. How long will it be before Inflation and Higher Rates start in earnest? Inflation reduces purchasing power.
Rising rates will cause Bond Risk. Is it time to Refinance? Rising rates threaten Bond holders. Is it time to lock in loans?
Check out Michael’s assessment on the economy. Click on the video below.
The price of food is going up around the globe. Food prices have increased for the ninth consecutive month. The cost of eating is as high as it has been since 2014. Grain prices have shot up 25% in the last year.
Today, Congress approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan for the United States. President Biden plans on signing the bill into law on Friday, March 12, 2021. Direct payments to the people along with emergency unemployment payments are part of the plan. For those who are interested where the money is going, click on the link below.
Wait! President Biden is not finished. On Thursday night, March 11, 2021, the President is looking to do more with “The Next Phase”. Here comes a massive infrastructure plan. And after that, the Biden Administration is looking to rid the planet of cancer.
Crank up the printing press. More money! more money! more money!
And remember, Revelation 6 is promised. The Bible says hyperinflation is coming at some point in the future. Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage to eat. We are not there yet. But, the pace of food inflation is increasing.
Revelation 6:5-6 When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a black horse! And its rider had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”
Michael has a new book coming. Details will be made available.
One of the hallmarks of the beginning of the tribulation is hyperinflation as noted in Revelation 6. At http://Paulthepoke.com we are watching economic conditions, specifically trends regarding inflation.
Michael Douville is our go to expert on all things economic. Douville is connected with the brightest economic minds in the industry. Today, he offers his insights into the current status of the global economy.
The economy is recovering. There are still many areas that are struggling , but there are also many areas that are actually BOOMING. Manufacturing, Industrials, IT, DoD, Construction, Housing are doing very well and are poised to do even better as the Economy heals… Q1 and Q2 look great.
Michael provides current economic data with regard to industrial production, commodity prices, inflation, economic recovery, monetary effects of “lockdowns”, current money supply, savings rates, gross domestic product data, and federal stimulus programs.
Where is the dollar headed? Higher or lower?
What about mortgage rates? What direction are they headed? Where are we in the real estate cycle?
The video below is jam packed with real data and charts. Michael’s explanations are straight forward and to the point. No economic cheerleading or bias here, just the facts.
The Bible says hyperinflation is coming at some point in the future. Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage just to eat. Be on watch!
Revelation 6:5-6 When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a black horse! And its rider had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”
Spend, Spend, and Spend some more; we borrowed some and we can borrow more! Since the Great Financial Crisis, virtually every Nation, State, County, Province, Region, City, Town, Village, and two buildings near each other on the same road have gorged on Borrowed Money. The Central Banks of the World opened the Debt Spigot and flooded the Globe with Liquidity. It is oh so much fun when the spending is free. Everyone loves a “Big Spender”! Now the Credit Splurge is over and reality is setting in. Much of the Debt was squandered by bureaucrats that had no economic sense; spending on projects for local constituents that benefited political support groups to consolidate and retain power. Sometimes just outright Fraud and Graft. Some Debt was used to build Schools, Roads, and power Infrastructure, but too much was misspent and mal-invested by the totally incompetent but politically connected technocrats in the Corporate and Government worlds.
Larger than all the stock markets of the World, the Debt Implosion will cause massive Disruptions and Turmoil. Those that prepare will have enormous opportunities as assets are sold at discounted prices to satisfy loans.
Those middle managers that 10 years ago were still in School and have never experienced any Business Environment other than an expanding Credit Bubble will be bewildered as a Global Slowdown unfolds. No one told them that Loans will come due and need to be paid. No one told them Interest Rates can rise and rise quickly, No one told them that Debt cannot always be “Rolled Over’! No one told them Business Cycles end! No one told them, therefore, it is not their FAULT!
Politicians and Corporate insiders will not accept the blame as the Debt Time Bombs start to threaten. The Budgets that are trimmed and the Programs that are reduced or curtailed will become someone else’s fault particularly as Civil unrest starts, as local housing, medical, or food benefits are reduced or worse yet, eliminated! It will be someone else’s fault; either a Foreign enemy or a domestic Ethnic or Religious group will be blamed for mishandling the Economy. Border skirmishes or outright conflict may result as Governments look to deflect and distract. Enemies do not deserve to be repaid!
Goldman Sachs has been embroiled in Corruption across the World and has been accused of creating complicated Financing for Nations such as Malaysia and Greece that provided funds to desperate politicians at very expensive prices, good for the immediate term, but not so good when the Debt needs to be repaid. Abu Dhabi filed suit in New York November 21, 2018 accusing Goldman Sachs of Bribery and Money Laundering. Sovereign and Corporate Debt is at Risk of Default from Rising Interest Rates and Market Forces; now Sovereign and Corporate Debt is at Risk of Default due to alleged Fraudulent practices. Obviously, if the Money was Fraudulently lent, no one would expect to be paid back, would they?
The Bond Market will experience huge defaults and Global Deflation as Trillions of dollars come due; the Debt is not sustainable. Larger than all the stock markets of the World, the Debt Implosion will cause massive Disruptions and Turmoil. Those that prepare will have enormous opportunities as assets are sold at discounted prices to satisfy loans. Essential Cash Flow from Bonds can be replaced often by even larger Income Streams from conservative Rental Real Estate in the great growth markets of the US with much less Risk. A discussion with a Financial Adviser may be Timely and Prudent.
1 Samuel 2:7 The LORD makes poor and rich; He brings low, He also exalts.
Proverbs 3:13-16 How blessed is the man who finds wisdom and the man who gains understanding. For her profit is better than the profit of silver and her gain better than fine gold. She is more precious than jewels; and nothing you desire compares with her. Long life is in her right hand; in her left hand are riches and honor.
The US enjoys the Global Reserve Currency status. Virtually all of the major business transactions throughout the world are priced in Dollars. Sovereign Wealth Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Funds, Corporate funds need to “Park” billions and billions of transactional cash! The ONLY currency liquid and vast enough is the US Dollar! Not Lire, Not Yuan, Not Euro, not the Yen, only the US Dollar. It is stable, safe, liquid and accepted around the World. International pricing expresses the transactional cost in US Dollars of oil, copper, grain, lead, tallow, butter, milk, beef, etc. along with virtually all International agreements. The dollar does fluctuate, but pegging to the US Dollar standardizes Global transactions.
A weak US Dollar is good for the Global Economic community. The US Dollar was 102.21 October 1, 2016, just prior to the Presidential Elections. The World experienced “A cyclic upturn in a structural downturn” exactly as ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) forecasted. The Dollar then declined to 88.25 in February 2018; which may have been a cyclic bottom. A weaker dollar is good for Emerging Market Economies. Raw Material sales translate into more local currency which then can buy more local and regional goods and services. Local inflation is reduced. During the past decade, Sovereigns around the World have gorged on cheap loans priced well below 1%, some even negative. With a declining US Dollar, not only are the loans Historically cheap, a 20% decline in currency exchange equates to repaying only $80 million of the $100 million borrowed plus receiving a higher price for exports usually oil, copper, aluminum, etc.
photo: MarketWatch
Like all things, the US Dollar cycles. It does not remain cheap forever. Timing becomes important. The US Dollar has risen and risen very fast from a possible low of 88 just a few months ago to a recent high of 96. This cycle of peaks and valleys is not a new phenomena; this cycle repeats historically. What is new is the record DEBT pervasive throughout the World. Debtors have enjoyed the discount of a declining US Dollar; that is now gone. Interest rates at or near zero are gone in the US and scheduled to be gone soon everywhere else. Obscene amounts of DEBT have propelled the good fortunes of virtually everyone from Credit Cards and HELOCs for citizens to massive Public and Sovereign debt in EVERY Village, Hamlet, Town, City, Municipality, County, State and Nation on the face of the PLANET!!
A strong Dollar will reduce the value of exports thereby slowing the economy in exporting Nations. A negative spiral’s outcome is a slowing of all global economies. This then results in declining demand that ripples throughout the World. That is bad enough; add in rapidly rising rates and there lies a recipe for Catastrophe! The obscene debt is rarely paid off, rarely even reduced. The debt is rolled over or refinanced. A rise to only 2% equates to multiples of 10 to 20 times the debt service. There is going to be a very rude awakening very soon!
Debt will default and these defaults will accelerate throughout the world pressuring rates even higher as nonpayment risk pressures returns. Bonds and Bond Funds will be at HUGE RISK. All manners of Debt will be affected. Rates will rise and rise quicker than anyone anticipates. Get out of Debt! Payoff Credit Cards, Helocs, anything that floats with an Index. Refinance into fixed rate LONG TERM debt. Raise cash! The dollar cycle peak is forecast to reach 103.8 as a typical permutation in a typical cycle. This may not be TYPICAL! Turmoil could drive the US Dollar to 120 causing massive disruptions! For those aware, for those prepared, Generational Wealth can be achieved when the cycle again turns down……
Isaiah 21:13-15 The oracle concerning Arabia. In the thickets in Arabia you will lodge, O caravans of Dedanites. To the thirsty bring water; meet the fugitive with bread, O inhabitants of the land of Tema. For they have fled from the swords, from the drawn sword, from the bent bow, and from the press of battle.
Jeremiah 49:28a Concerning Kedar…
The prophets Isaiah and Jeremiah define “Arabia” or modern day Saudi Arabia. This is the Hebrew word Arab. It means a desert plateau, a country east of Israel (Strong’s Concordance).
The following peoples and their descendants make up Arabia per the prophets: Dedan, Tema, and Kedar.
November 11, 2017: Tension is building on the Arabian Peninsula. At the core of the issue is conflict between Iran (Shia Muslims) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni Muslims). The Saudis and their allies have concerns about a nuclear Iran.
The Houthi Shia rebels in Yemen are supported by Iran. Earlier in the week, a missile was fired from Yemen that targeted Riyadh’s (Saudi Arabia) commercial International Airport. The missile was intercepted by the Saudi’s. There were no injuries or damage reported. The Saudi’s have stated Iran has committed an act of war.
French President Emmanuel Macron is on the record blaming the Iranians. “The missile which was intercepted by Saudi Arabia launched from Yemen, which obviously is an Iranian missile, shows precisely the strength of their program.” -Emmanuel Macron
United States Air Force sources are also confirming Iranian involvement in the missile launch from Yemen to Riyadh.
Cedar of Lebanon
With the announcement of the resignation, Hezbollah’s (Shia Muslim) leader Hassan Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of declaring war on Lebanon. “In short, it is clear that Saudi Arabia and Saudi officials have declared war on Lebanon and on Hezbollah in Lebanon, but I have to say this is a war on Lebanon.”
The concern is Lebanon erupting into a civil war like Yemen with Saudi and Iranian proxies. The Saudis have ordered all citizens to leave Lebanon. Saudi money is leaving Lebanon banks by the billions.
This week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has been arresting over 200 officials in the name of “corruption”. The 32 year old MBS is the future king of Saudi Arabia. At least 11 family members were corralled. Around 38 government ministers were detained. Military, religious, and business leaders have been arrested as well.
Money is moving out of Saudi Arabia by the hundreds of billions. Money is moving around the Middle East by the hundreds of billions. The rich and wealthy are freaking out in fear of having their assets seized. The Saudi government is having budget problems. Follow the money.
Scripture is very clear. In the final analysis, the Saudis are going to get pummeled. Isaiah bears witness and confirms their fate.
Isaiah 21:16-17 For thus the Lord said to me, “Within a year, according to the years of a hired worker, all the glory of Kedar will come to an end. And the remainder of the archers of the mighty men of the sons of Kedar will be few, for the LORD, the God of Israel, has spoken.”
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