Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God
In November of 2020, I mentioned on my video that for the first time in over a decade, I saw Inflation Coming into the Pipeline. Even I am amazed at the intensity of the Inflationary Spiral. Inflation continues to be in the Pipeline and continues to cause problems.
Where are we in the Real Estate Cycle? We are about to enter the Explosive Phase!
Pundits across the Nation are continuing to call for a Housing Crash, but here in Phoenix, Arizona, I see no evidence of any slowdown let alone a Housing Crash. There is such a shortage here, I do not see how there can be a Crash. Phoenix is enjoying over 100,000 in new residents, but only 30,000 new units; 14,000 of those will be rental units leaving only 16,000 new homes for over 100,000 new residents. Real Assets are needed in Inflationary times.
Oil is spiraling upwards! Oil is over $100 a barrel. This is not good for the economy.
We are living in historic inflationary times. Copper, aluminum, iron ore, are going up and unless you are a Commodity Trader, the better Real Asset is a single-family home. How high will inflation go???
Is food insecurity and hyperinflation of grains on the horizon? The war in Ukraine is a factor. This is the bread basket of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East.
Revelation 6:5-6 When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a black horse! And its rider had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”
Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage to eat. John the Revelator promises that hyperinflation is coming at some point prior to the return of Jesus Christ. Hyperinflation is on the scene prior to the onset of the Great Tribulation. Are we watching the dominoes being put into place??? Are we witnessing the seeds of hyperinflation? Be on guard and watch!
Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.
Proverbs 14:16 One who is wise is cautious and turns away from evil, but a fool is reckless and careless.
Cash is Trash? Think Again! I have been in many Stock Cycles, many Bond Cycles, through a few 18-year Real Estate Cycles and having a Cash Reserve on hand to insure against credit line restriction is good business, So Cash is not always Trash. Cash is also a separate asset class.
When the Economy gets in trouble, the Banks will take back their CREDIT LINES!
Having cash, savings, checking, and bills: $1, $5, $10 dollar bills, is reassuring to carry you through any slow period. We have all done well in the last couple of years, maybe it’s time to take some profit or refinance and take some cash.
I have been suggesting maybe it is time to take a little money off the TABLE! Trees do not grow to the sky, and it is often nice to have some cash to supplement through a soft patch or use for an Opportunity! Cash is not always TRASH!
However, DO NOT SPEND this money, the cash is for opportunities or reserves.
Click on the YouTube video below for the details.
When the Recession hit in 2020 the Stock Market dropped like a rock, and it was difficult to get out. More and more of my clients have their Asset Allocation overweighted in the Stock Market. The Stock Market has had a very good run and perhaps it is time to take a profit and place the Capital in another ASSET CLASS!
World famous cyclical economist Charles Nenner weighs in on the market with his proprietary charts.
Michael reviews where he thinks we are in the 18 year Real Estate Cycle.
Real Estate Rentals add diversification, Cash Flow, Capital Gains, and are a separate asset class. If you or your clients are overweighted in Equities, perhaps change Assets to Real Estate. Real Estate and especially Rental Real Estate is “Counter Cyclical” to the Stock Market and often Capital will flow out of one Asset Class into another. Real Estate often benefits! Self-Directed IRA’s and Self-Directed 401K’s are ideal. Real Estate Rentals not only provide an excellent Cash Flow, but also act as an Inflation Hedge.
Michael addresses charts from the Federal Reserve. In Q1 of 2020, there was $6.3 Trillion of stimulus unleashed into the Economy and that ignited INFLATION! Once worker make $20 an hour, they are not going back to $12 an hour.
Are economic bubbles beginning to pop? The economy appears to be cooling.
Please check with your Financial Advisor to discuss what is right for you. I do not advocate that all of your assets be in Real Estate, nor do I believe all of your assets should be in the Stock Market.
Click on the YouTube video below for the details.
Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…
Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.
The Economy, Inflation and Real Estate Investing. In this video Michael looks at the state of the economy, the rebound and where things are heading. He analyzes the importance of holding real estate as a hedge against inflation.
Michael reviews first quarter growth in the economy. Growth was revised to 6.4%. Michael is calling for possible double digit growth in the second quarter of 2021.
Quarterly earnings have exceeded expectations on Wall Street.
Consumer confidence is high. There are shortages in all areas of the economy for durable goods and supplies. Computer chips are in short supply. Automobile manufacturing has been affected. Demand is up!
Inflation continues. Michael says this is not transitory. He is looking for an inflation cycle and this is not ending any time soon. Michael reviews commodity charts and provides analysis across the commodity complex. Protect your purchasing power.
Real estate prices are going up. Will this be the greatest historical bull market in housing? Michael expects prices to over shoot to the upside.
All of this and more in the video below. Wall street caliber economic information and analysis.
Don’t forget to subscribe for more content: If you are new to this channel, Welcome. This channel is about real estate investing and how to do it successfully. By subscribing you will be getting the most current market information which will help you make the best decisions for you.
Proverbs 9:9 Instruct a wise man, and he will be wiser still; teach a righteous man, and he will increase his learning.
Proverbs 14:6 A scoffer seeks wisdom and finds none, but knowledge is easy for one who has understanding.
Check out the latest update provided by Michael Douville, our go to guy on all things economic.
The 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2021 are proving the forecast is correct. Manufacturing, the Industrials, the Service Sector, and Housing are TERRIFIC.
Wallpaper Access
In this video, Michael provides numbers and analysis on the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. Manufacturing is exploding. There is a shortage of supplies, materials, and products. Will we have 6-10% growth in the 2nd Quarter of 2021?
IHS Markit data on United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is reviewed with charts provided.
Michael also assesses Real Estate home sales across the United States. He reviews where we are in the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle. Be a full cycle investor and pay attention to the times and where we are in the cycle.
Click on the YouTube link below for Michael’s latest update.
Proverbs 1:5 A wise person will hear and increase in learning, And a person of understanding will acquire wise counsel…
Check out Michael Douville’s latest book. Now available on Amazon.
Real Estate Investing For Beginners Creating Generational Wealth
Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.
Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.
Getty Images
Rising Interest rates and now rising Inflation are a Dangerous Duo for those Retired or Retiring soon.
In Michael Douville’s latest video, he offers a tutorial with charts. Michael breaks down interest rates, the bond market, Commodity Spot Index, inflation concerns, and the Case Shiller Home Price Index.
Lastly, Michael reviews where we are in the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle? Prices should continue to go up but for how long?
Ecclesiastes 9:18 Wisdom is better than weapons of war, but one sinner destroys much good.
39% of all dollars in the economy were created in 2020. Keep in mind, the Federal Reserve was created in 1919. Of all the dollars created in the last century, 39% were in the last year alone. And to top it off, more money is promised into the system moving forward.
Can you say inflation potential??? The consumer is experiencing a loss of purchasing power. Imagine what will happen if inflation starts to take off and up. What is your hedge against inflation?
Where are we in the 18 year real estate cycle?
Huge gains have been made particularly for high leverage properties. There is a temptation to capture the gains by selling. The Historic Money Supply will add fuel for much greater gains than one can imagine and the Cyclical Model is still pointing higher. Everyone is different!
Click on the link below to listen to Michael’s comments.
Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage to eat. John the Revelator promises that hyperinflation is coming at some point prior to the return of Jesus Christ. Are we watching the dominoes being put into place???
One of the hallmarks of the beginning of the tribulation is hyperinflation as noted in Revelation 6. At http://Paulthepoke.com we are watching economic conditions, specifically trends regarding inflation.
Michael Douville is our go to expert on all things economic. Douville is connected with the brightest economic minds in the industry. Today, he offers his insights into the current status of the global economy.
The economy is recovering. There are still many areas that are struggling , but there are also many areas that are actually BOOMING. Manufacturing, Industrials, IT, DoD, Construction, Housing are doing very well and are poised to do even better as the Economy heals… Q1 and Q2 look great.
Michael provides current economic data with regard to industrial production, commodity prices, inflation, economic recovery, monetary effects of “lockdowns”, current money supply, savings rates, gross domestic product data, and federal stimulus programs.
Where is the dollar headed? Higher or lower?
What about mortgage rates? What direction are they headed? Where are we in the real estate cycle?
The video below is jam packed with real data and charts. Michael’s explanations are straight forward and to the point. No economic cheerleading or bias here, just the facts.
The Bible says hyperinflation is coming at some point in the future. Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage just to eat. Be on watch!
Revelation 6:5-6 When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a black horse! And its rider had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”
Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…
Michael Douville is weighing in on current economic conditions. Check out what he has to say.
Is Inflation finally coming? Inflation has been benign for over a decade. There appears to be Inflation in the Basic materials that will percolate through the Economy. Residential Rentals can be a terrific Inflation hedge.
Real Estate has an 18.5 year cycle that repeats with surprising regularity. Is the Cycle about to slow just before the years long “Explosive Phase”? Does this represent a buying opportunity? Real Estate, particularly in the Great Markets of the US, represents a very very compelling and Cash Flow generating investment. To be involved: michael@michaeldouville.com, 602-942-4200
Click on the link below for Michael’s thoughts on the Real Estate Cycle.
Hyperinflation is a hallmark of the beginning of the tribulation. Any time there is a discussion of the topic, be alert. We know inflation eventually comes on a massive scale.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…
1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.
Business cycles come and go. What goes up must come down. What goes down eventually comes up again. Where are we in the cycle? Major market forces are coming together and they will impact our future and world. Understand the times we are witnessing.
Michael Douville breaks down the global economy and how trends in the dollar and interest rates will affect consumers. We live in historic and interesting economic times. Opportunity is around the corner.
Michael has talked with Dr. Charles Nenner regarding the real estate market, his timing model and charts. Mortgage rates are discussed. How low will interest rates go? Is it time to buy a new home or refinance an existing mortgage? Where will the housing market be in the next 18-24 months?
Michael discusses the impact of the dollar relative to commodity prices. Is the dollar starting to top out? What happens if the dollar loses its value? Commodities and goods are going higher in price.
Countries around the world are broke and cannot pay their bills in dollar denominated debt. What happens if the dollar gets stronger? Debt gets more expensive. Over 100 nations have reached out to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial help.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.
Created in 1945, the IMF is governed by and accountable to the 189 countries that make up its near-global membership. The IMF is a part of the United Nations (UN) system. https://www.imf.org/en/About
Make decisions now. Prepare and plan. Navigate through current and future economic trends.
Be ready. The explosive phase is coming!!!
Check out Michael’s comprehensive review and current standing of global markets, interest rates, currencies and more on the YouTube link below…
Michael Douville is an author and syndicated columnist.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…
Dr Nenner is not only brilliant, but gracious spending almost an hour of his time discussing current conditions in the Financial World. As one of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner shared his most recent research and discussed the Cycles of Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and the safer harbor for Income Investors, Real Estate.
Dr. Charles Nenner
As Dr. Nenner repeatedly states all things change. Good times end, Bad times end and everything cycles from Seasons to Interest Rates. Nenner Research indicates the Globe may be about to experience a profound change of Cycle. Soon, the US Business Cycle will be setting a record for expansion surpassing the 120 months of growth experienced in the 1990’s; setting a record implies this is unusual, as it normally does not last this long! The expansion is so old and so long many have forgotten that Business Cycles complete, they change! The Business Cycle transitions from Expansion to Contraction slowly, then all of a sudden. Charles Nenner’s research has predicted the slowdown. It is now no longer a prediction, but fact and the Economy of the World is poised to get worse, much worse. Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!
Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!
Charles Nenner’s Cyclical Research forecasts declining US GDP in 2019 to a year end level of less than 1%; GDP for 2020 may be contracting to below 0. Currently, Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Factory Orders are declining in the US.
Auto sales are falling,
Retail has not recovered from one of the worst Christmas Seasons in 20 years and retail store closings and shopping mall closures are at a record pace.
My favorite asset class, Real Estate, is in a mid cycle correction and has experienced 14 months in a row of declining Existing Home Sales with prices in some markets notably New York City, Seattle, San Jose actually beginning to deteriorate.
Dr. Nenner foresees a Stock Market decline accompanying the softening Economy starting in earnest mid to late July. Unfortunately, Dr Nenner’s Research does not indicate a short drop and quick recovery, but a more prolonged period of slow Economic activity. Those in retirement or approaching retirement should take heed; an extremely conservative approach or an exit strategy might be discussed with their Investment Advisor. Losses incurred from a Stock portfolio may require a very long time to recover. Many Baby Boomers do not have that time! Avoiding loss should be the goal, not squeezing out the last dollar of profit. Lose 40% or more and the “Golden Years” are not so golden!
For a free trial offer of Charles Nenner’s newsletter, go to www.charlesnenner.com and mention this interview.
In Prior slowdowns, Investors could transfer Wealth into Bonds when the Stock Market plunged. Charles Nenner sees higher rates from July going forward that will eventually lead to significant losses and much higher rates in just a few years. Dr. Nenner also envisions Global Deflation; Deflation is much more difficult to manage than Inflation prolonging the contraction. Deflation often refers to the destruction of Credit and Debt through non-payment or defaults. Obviously, as Risk of Default or possible Debt restructure rises, Investors demand to be compensated for the Risk and Rates rise. This is counter intuitive to a slowing Economy which speaks to the predicament of Extreme Global Debt. Individual US Treasury Bonds representing the safest investment in the world issued by the Global Reserve Currency will receive unprecedented demand; Capital seeking safety. Dr Nenner’s Cycles for the 30 year Treasury Indicate demand pushing Treasuries to possible new low yields. A bifurcated Bond Market?
Bonds and debt without the implicit guarantee of the US may suffer loss of principal in a World engulfed in Global Deflation and Contagion.
Bond funds and ETF’s which unlike simple bonds, never mature could incur losses of 70% or more in a rising rate environment. Further, Deflation may cause huge losses in lower quality Bonds and Debt instruments. Estimates are as high as $2.5 Trillion in Corporate Bonds could already be just one notch above JUNK! A recession could double that. Downgrades and Defaults will cause massive Bond losses.
Consistent income will help mitigate the turmoil that is coming. The S&P dividends yield less than 2% and the risk of monumental loss of value dictates avoidance. Bonds and Debt instruments are facing the potential of devastating losses as well. The current Income provided is not much more with the 10 year Treasury yielding less than 2.2% in an Inverted Yield environment. Any increase of Interest Rates will devastate a Bond Portfolio. Fortunately, Real Estate provides consistent, conservative, and monthly Income.
Conservative single family residential rentals provided cash flow month after month through the Great Financial Crisis. As a separate asset class from both Stocks and Bonds, Real Estate barely correlates with Wall Street; estimates are in the 8-9% range. Real Estate, although cyclical, is also very Regional in Nature. There are several truly great Real Estate markets in the US that are experiencing both Organic growth and Demographic growth causing demand for Housing. Las Vegas and Phoenix are both exploding adding over 100,000 new residents each in 2018; one cause is the Exodus from California, a Mega Trend that will last for years. This population increase is creating jobs and an enormous demand for rentals. Dr Nenner believes that investing in Small Units and Entry Level Single Family properties will generate Income through the economic downturn and may prove to be a very prudent investment. Investors will receive useable cash flow while waiting for the Real Estate Market recovery which may bottom as soon as 3rdquarter 2020. Just beyond the current Real Estate correction is the “Explosive Phase” of the Real Estate Cycle where Fortunes are born! Not just Cash Flow, but much higher prices.
Will rising HOME prices coincide with the 30 year Treasury declining to historical low rates? Will the US experience Negative Rates and barely positive mortgages as our European Cousins? Will Risk expose struggling Corporations, Munincipalities, Counties, States, and maybe even Sovereign borrowers to much higher rates based on Credit downgrades? The next few years promise to be very interesting; is that a Chinese curse????
Rental Cash Flow may be one of the few Income Streams that will be monthly, consistent, and actually grow in a downturn; a fiscal Lifeboat! Risk has entered the Market. As a separate asset class, Real Estate may provide a safer asset for your Wealth. Always discuss with your Financial Advisor before Investing.
