Archive for real estate cycle

State of the Economy, June 2021… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on June 5, 2021 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.

The Economy, Inflation and Real Estate Investing. In this video Michael looks at the state of the economy, the rebound and where things are heading. He analyzes the importance of holding real estate as a hedge against inflation.

Michael reviews first quarter growth in the economy. Growth was revised to 6.4%. Michael is calling for possible double digit growth in the second quarter of 2021.

Quarterly earnings have exceeded expectations on Wall Street.

Consumer confidence is high. There are shortages in all areas of the economy for durable goods and supplies. Computer chips are in short supply. Automobile manufacturing has been affected. Demand is up!

Inflation continues. Michael says this is not transitory. He is looking for an inflation cycle and this is not ending any time soon. Michael reviews commodity charts and provides analysis across the commodity complex. Protect your purchasing power.

Real estate prices are going up. Will this be the greatest historical bull market in housing? Michael expects prices to over shoot to the upside.

All of this and more in the video below. Wall street caliber economic information and analysis.

Michael’s Website: https://michaeldouville.com

Michael talks about his recent book which was written to guide the beginner investor.

Buy Michael’s Books Here: Amazon Links:

https://amzn.to/3ia7AYL Real Estate Investing for Beginners Creating Generational Wealth

https://amzn.to/3ySXtNR How To Create A Real Estate Money Machine and Retire With Income

Don’t forget to subscribe for more content: If you are new to this channel, Welcome. This channel is about real estate investing and how to do it successfully. By subscribing you will be getting the most current market information which will help you make the best decisions for you.

Economy Is Booming!!! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on April 27, 2021 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 9:9 Instruct a wise man, and he will be wiser still; teach a righteous man, and he will increase his learning.

Proverbs 14:6 A scoffer seeks wisdom and finds none, but knowledge is easy for one who has understanding.

Check out the latest update provided by Michael Douville, our go to guy on all things economic.

The 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2021 are proving the forecast is correct. Manufacturing, the Industrials, the Service Sector, and Housing are TERRIFIC.

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In this video, Michael provides numbers and analysis on the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. Manufacturing is exploding. There is a shortage of supplies, materials, and products. Will we have 6-10% growth in the 2nd Quarter of 2021?

IHS Markit data on United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is reviewed with charts provided.

Michael also assesses Real Estate home sales across the United States. He reviews where we are in the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle. Be a full cycle investor and pay attention to the times and where we are in the cycle.

Click on the YouTube link below for Michael’s latest update.

Proverbs 1:5 A wise person will hear and increase in learning, And a person of understanding will acquire wise counsel…

Check out Michael Douville’s latest book. Now available on Amazon.

Real Estate Investing For Beginners Creating Generational Wealth

Click on the Amazon link below for details.

Economic Double Trouble… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on April 5, 2021 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

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Rising Interest rates and now rising Inflation are a Dangerous Duo for those Retired or Retiring soon.

In Michael Douville’s latest video, he offers a tutorial with charts. Michael breaks down interest rates, the bond market, Commodity Spot Index, inflation concerns, and the Case Shiller Home Price Index.

Lastly, Michael reviews where we are in the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle? Prices should continue to go up but for how long?

Ecclesiastes 9:18 Wisdom is better than weapons of war, but one sinner destroys much good.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

Michael has a new book coming. Details will be made available.

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Printing Money!!! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on March 22, 2021 by paulthepoke
heap of different nominal per dollars
Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels.com

39% of all dollars in the economy were created in 2020. Keep in mind, the Federal Reserve was created in 1919. Of all the dollars created in the last century, 39% were in the last year alone. And to top it off, more money is promised into the system moving forward.

Can you say inflation potential??? The consumer is experiencing a loss of purchasing power. Imagine what will happen if inflation starts to take off and up. What is your hedge against inflation?

Where are we in the 18 year real estate cycle?

Huge gains have been made particularly for high leverage properties. There is a temptation to capture the gains by selling. The Historic Money Supply will add fuel for much greater gains than one can imagine and the Cyclical Model is still pointing higher. Everyone is different!

Click on the link below to listen to Michael’s comments.

Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage to eat. John the Revelator promises that hyperinflation is coming at some point prior to the return of Jesus Christ. Are we watching the dominoes being put into place???

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

Michael has a new book coming. Details will be made available.

Real Estate Investing for Beginners.jpg

Current State of the Economy, January 2021… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 12, 2021 by paulthepoke

One of the hallmarks of the beginning of the tribulation is hyperinflation as noted in Revelation 6. At http://Paulthepoke.com we are watching economic conditions, specifically trends regarding inflation.

Michael Douville is our go to expert on all things economic. Douville is connected with the brightest economic minds in the industry. Today, he offers his insights into the current status of the global economy.

The economy is recovering. There are still many areas that are struggling , but there are also many areas that are actually BOOMING. Manufacturing, Industrials, IT, DoD, Construction, Housing are doing very well and are poised to do even better as the Economy heals… Q1 and Q2 look great.

black and white business chart computer
Photo by Lorenzo on Pexels.com

Michael provides current economic data with regard to industrial production, commodity prices, inflation, economic recovery, monetary effects of “lockdowns”, current money supply, savings rates, gross domestic product data, and federal stimulus programs.

Where is the dollar headed? Higher or lower?

What about mortgage rates? What direction are they headed? Where are we in the real estate cycle?

Should we be weary of a “Mad Max Event”?

To contact me michael@michaeldouville.com

The video below is jam packed with real data and charts. Michael’s explanations are straight forward and to the point. No economic cheerleading or bias here, just the facts.

https://michaeldouville.com/

The Bible says hyperinflation is coming at some point in the future. Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage just to eat. Be on watch!

Revelation 6:5-6 When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a black horse! And its rider had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”

Inflation Is Coming!!! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , on November 4, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Michael Douville is weighing in on current economic conditions. Check out what he has to say.

Is Inflation finally coming? Inflation has been benign for over a decade. There appears to be Inflation in the Basic materials that will percolate through the Economy. Residential Rentals can be a terrific Inflation hedge.

Click on the video below for Michael’s comments.

michael@michaeldouville.com

Real Estate has an 18.5 year cycle that repeats with surprising regularity. Is the Cycle about to slow just before the years long “Explosive Phase”? Does this represent a buying opportunity? Real Estate, particularly in the Great Markets of the US, represents a very very compelling and Cash Flow generating investment. To be involved: michael@michaeldouville.com, 602-942-4200

Click on the link below for Michael’s thoughts on the Real Estate Cycle.

michael@michaeldouville.com

Hyperinflation is a hallmark of the beginning of the tribulation. Any time there is a discussion of the topic, be alert. We know inflation eventually comes on a massive scale.

Global Economics and Market (P)Review, June 2020… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on June 10, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Business cycles come and go. What goes up must come down. What goes down eventually comes up again. Where are we in the cycle? Major market forces are coming together and they will impact our future and world. Understand the times we are witnessing.

Michael Douville breaks down the global economy and how trends in the dollar and interest rates will affect consumers. We live in historic and interesting economic times. Opportunity is around the corner.

Michael has talked with Dr. Charles Nenner regarding the real estate market, his timing model and charts. Mortgage rates are discussed. How low will interest rates go? Is it time to buy a new home or refinance an existing mortgage? Where will the housing market be in the next 18-24 months?

Michael discusses the impact of the dollar relative to commodity prices. Is the dollar starting to top out? What happens if the dollar loses its value? Commodities and goods are going higher in price.

Countries around the world are broke and cannot pay their bills in dollar denominated debt. What happens if the dollar gets stronger? Debt gets more expensive. Over 100 nations have reached out to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial help.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

Created in 1945, the IMF is governed by and accountable to the 189 countries that make up its near-global membership. The IMF is a part of the United Nations (UN) system. https://www.imf.org/en/About

Make decisions now. Prepare and plan. Navigate through current and future economic trends.

Be ready. The explosive phase is coming!!!

Check out Michael’s comprehensive review and current standing of global markets, interest rates, currencies and more on the YouTube link below…

Michael Douville is an author and syndicated columnist.

Dr. Charles Nenner’s Thoughts June 2019 – An Interview with Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on June 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Dr Nenner is not only brilliant, but gracious spending almost an hour of his time discussing current conditions in the Financial World.  As one of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner shared his most recent research and discussed the Cycles of Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and the safer harbor for Income Investors, Real Estate.

Dr. Charles Nenner

As Dr. Nenner repeatedly states all things change. Good times end, Bad times end and everything cycles from Seasons to Interest Rates. Nenner Research indicates the Globe may be about to experience a profound change of Cycle. Soon, the US Business Cycle will be setting a record for expansion surpassing the 120 months of growth experienced in the 1990’s;  setting a record implies this is unusual, as it normally does not  last this long! The expansion is so old and so long many have forgotten that Business Cycles complete, they change! The Business Cycle transitions from Expansion to Contraction slowly, then all of a sudden. Charles Nenner’s research has predicted the slowdown. It is now no longer a prediction, but fact and the Economy of the World is poised to get worse, much worse. Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!

Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!

Charles Nenner’s Cyclical Research forecasts declining US GDP in 2019 to a year end level of less than 1%;  GDP for 2020 may be contracting to below 0. Currently,  Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Factory Orders are declining in the US.

Auto sales are falling,

Retail has not recovered from one of the worst Christmas Seasons in 20 years and retail store closings and shopping mall closures are at a record pace. 

 My favorite asset class, Real Estate, is in a mid cycle correction and has experienced 14 months in a row of declining Existing Home Sales with prices in some markets notably New York City, Seattle, San Jose actually beginning to deteriorate. 

Dr. Nenner foresees a Stock Market decline accompanying the softening Economy starting in earnest mid to late July. Unfortunately, Dr Nenner’s Research does not indicate a short drop and quick recovery, but a more prolonged period of slow Economic activity. Those in retirement or approaching retirement should take heed;  an extremely conservative approach or an exit strategy might be discussed with their Investment Advisor.  Losses incurred from a Stock portfolio may require a very long time to recover. Many Baby Boomers do not have that time! Avoiding loss should be the goal, not squeezing out the last dollar of profit. Lose 40% or more and the “Golden Years” are not so golden!

For a free trial offer of Charles Nenner’s newsletter, go to www.charlesnenner.com and mention this interview.

In Prior slowdowns, Investors could transfer Wealth into Bonds when the Stock Market plunged. Charles Nenner sees higher rates from July going forward that will eventually lead to significant losses and much higher rates in just a few years. Dr. Nenner also envisions Global Deflation; Deflation is much more difficult to manage than Inflation prolonging the contraction. Deflation often refers to the destruction of Credit and Debt through non-payment or defaults. Obviously, as Risk of Default or possible Debt restructure rises, Investors demand to be compensated for the Risk and Rates rise. This is counter intuitive to a slowing Economy which speaks to the predicament of Extreme Global Debt.  Individual US Treasury Bonds representing the safest investment in the world issued by the Global Reserve Currency will receive unprecedented demand; Capital seeking safety.  Dr Nenner’s Cycles for the 30 year Treasury Indicate demand pushing Treasuries to possible new low yields.  A bifurcated Bond Market?

Bonds and debt without the implicit guarantee of the US may suffer loss of principal in  a World engulfed in Global Deflation and Contagion.

Bond funds and ETF’s  which unlike simple bonds, never mature could incur losses of 70% or more in a rising rate environment. Further,  Deflation may cause huge losses in lower quality Bonds and Debt instruments. Estimates are as high as $2.5 Trillion in Corporate Bonds could already be just one notch above JUNK!  A recession could double that. Downgrades and Defaults will cause massive Bond losses.

Consistent income will help mitigate the turmoil that is coming.  The S&P dividends yield less than 2% and the risk of monumental loss of value dictates avoidance.  Bonds and Debt instruments are facing the potential of devastating losses as well. The current Income provided is not much more with the 10 year Treasury yielding less than 2.2% in an Inverted Yield environment.  Any increase of Interest Rates will devastate a Bond Portfolio. Fortunately, Real Estate provides consistent, conservative, and monthly Income.

Conservative single family residential rentals provided cash flow month after month through the Great Financial Crisis.  As a separate asset class from both Stocks and Bonds, Real Estate barely correlates with Wall Street;  estimates are in the 8-9% range. Real Estate, although cyclical, is also very Regional in Nature. There are several truly great Real Estate markets in the US that are experiencing both Organic growth and Demographic growth causing demand for Housing. Las Vegas and Phoenix are both exploding adding over 100,000 new residents each in 2018;  one cause is the Exodus from California, a Mega Trend that will last for years. This population increase is creating jobs and an enormous demand for rentals. Dr Nenner believes that investing in Small Units and Entry Level Single Family properties will generate Income through the economic downturn and may prove to be a very prudent investment. Investors will receive useable cash flow while waiting for the Real Estate Market recovery which may bottom as soon as 3rdquarter 2020.  Just beyond the current Real Estate correction is the “Explosive Phase” of the Real Estate Cycle where Fortunes are born! Not just Cash Flow, but much higher prices.

Will rising HOME prices coincide with the 30 year Treasury declining to historical low rates? Will the US experience Negative Rates and barely positive mortgages as our European Cousins? Will Risk expose struggling Corporations, Munincipalities, Counties, States, and maybe even Sovereign borrowers to much higher rates based on Credit downgrades? The next few years promise to be very interesting; is that a Chinese curse????

Rental Cash Flow may be one of the few Income Streams that will be monthly, consistent, and actually grow in a downturn; a fiscal Lifeboat! Risk has entered the Market. As a separate asset class, Real Estate may provide a safer asset for your Wealth. Always discuss with your Financial Advisor before Investing. 

The 18 year Real Estate Cycle

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on December 17, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

https://michaeldouville.com/

Michael explains the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle that has been going on for a couple hundred years. You can achieve generational wealth by using this cycle to plan your real estate investment strategy.

There is a Cycle to Everything; rain, drought, moon, eclipse, orbits, Sun Spots, and what I am concerned with today, the Real Estate Cycle. Edward R. Dewy, Phil Anderson, and several contemporary researchers have identified the 18.5 year cycle for housing.

In my Conferences, I use January 1, 2010 as the turning point. Researchers and statistics indicate the Real Estate cycle is 18.5 years which places the next bottom July 1, 2028; in a perfect world. That is almost 10 years from now: so what?

The Real Estate Cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again. Cycle data in the US recorded as far back as 300 years; to pre-revolution!  Also repeating in the data is a period of vulnerability for a Housing Correction 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom. This corresponds to July 2017 to June 2019; the current time frame!

When investing, these cycles become exit and entry points for Capital Deployment as well harbingers for Economic Distress for Real Estate Slowdowns seem to be always accompanied by a Stock, Bond, or Economic corrections which will affect jobs, interest rates,  Foreign Exchange,  and therefore businesses and families. Forewarned is forearmed. I have been warning about this vulnerability for 18 months; advising  to raise cash and reduce debt.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Prepare for a Housing Correction

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on October 29, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

 

https://michaeldouville.com/

This is not good news. As you know by now, I have been in the Real Estate business for over 45 years and I have experienced first hand the effects of the Business Cycle and the Real Estate Cycle. My first experience with a Cycle Completion taught me to respect   the sheer and unforgiving power of the Cycle and I have been a Student ever since.  I will share what I have learned.

Michael Douville’s website

There is a Cycle to Everything; rain, drought, moon, eclipse, orbits, Sun Spots, and what I am concerned with today, the Real Estate Cycle. Edward R. Dewy, Phil Anderson, and several contemporary researchers have identified the 18.5 year cycle for housing.  The Great Financial Crisis and the bursting of the unsustainable Housing Bubble is an indelible period burned in many Investors memories.  The decline started really in 2007 and accelerated into 2008. My Home market is the Phoenix MSA ; one of the 4 most adversely affected markets in the Nation. I definitely remember! What is harder to pinpoint is the bottom of the trough as it becomes a process drawn out over several months. However, in the Phoenix MSA, bottom was achieved sometime in the very late 2009 to very early 2010. Virtually all of the troubled markets seemed to bottom  together. In my Conferences, I use January 1, 2010 as the turning point. Researchers and statistics indicate the Real Estate cycle is 18.5 years which places the next bottom July 1, 2028; in a perfect world. That is almost 10 years from now: so what?

Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk!

housingcorrection

The Real Estate Cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again. Cycle data in the US recorded as far back as 300 years; to pre-revolution!  Also repeating in the data is a period of vulnerability for a Housing Correction 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom. This corresponds to July 2017 to June 2019; the current time frame!  These corrections can be very vicious or relatively mild. My personal concern is for an Epic Correction.  When investing, these cycles become exit and entry points for Capital Deployment as well harbingers for Economic Distress for Real Estate Slowdowns seem to be always accompanied by a Stock, Bond, or Economic corrections which will affect jobs, interest rates,  Foreign Exchange,  and therefore businesses and families. Forewarned is forearmed. I have been warning about this vulnerability for 18 months; advising  to raise cash and reduce debt. Nationally, Existing Home Sales have dropped for the last 7 months and September sales plunged! Indeed, as an example, the very vibrant Denver Market experienced a 30% drop in sales across all price ranges in a 30 day period from August to September. Declining sales is the preview to declining prices. The Correction in Housing has probably begun!

This graph, courtesy of ECRI, clearly shows the decline.

Someday, the cause of the decline will be researched, but now coupled with the Housing Correction is a Global Economic Slowdown underway causing turmoil overseas and ravaging the Emerging Markets. The Slowdown had been recognized by very few and the effects have not become apparent in the US yet.

However, Ned Davis Research has released their recent findings with a 92% certainty that a Global Recession has already started or will very soon. Should a Recession arrive, employment and business will certainly suffer. However, Rental Properties actually improve. Cash flow from conservative rentals should provide a consistent Income Stream for you and your family. As buyers are removed from the Buying Market, the Rental Market actually improves as the demand for housing remains, but the ownership changes. A prepared Investor can actually make purchases at discounted prices and quickly lease them as demand for housing should remain.

https://michaeldouville.com/books/embed/#?secret=g2bRsyIha4

Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk! Baby Boomers should look for cash flow from more conservative assets as the typical Stock Portfolio loss from a recession is 39.6%; at my age, an unacceptable loss. A vicious recession can put stock losses in the 60-90% range. Certainly a game Changer!  Rentals should be assessed for tenant quality rather than maximizing Rental Rates. Mortgages should be reviewed for refinancing to fixed rate encumbrances. Core properties especially should be debt free or extremely low LTV’s to provide Income and act as a Lifeboat in any Turmoil. Protect your capital, Protect your Credit, protect your FAMILY!

https://michaeldouville.com/

 

 

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