Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God
My wish for my family & friends this new year is for happiness. For having a mindset of positivity & thinking good thoughts. That we can all separate ourselves from anything negative & not give negativity space in our head. May your year be filled with joy!
What a beautiful world we’d be living in if we wanted the
best for each other. Instead of only being all about ourselves, we took the
time to help others & to build others up. Let’s make each other feel
important & worthy.
Romans 15:2 We should help others do what is right and build them up in the Lord.
Ecclesiastes 3:12 I perceived that there is nothing better for them than to be joyful and to do good as long as they live…
Philippians 4:8 If anything is excellent or praiseworthy, think about such things.
Michael explains the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle that has been going on for a couple hundred years. You can achieve generational wealth by using this cycle to plan your real estate investment strategy.
There is a Cycle to Everything; rain, drought, moon, eclipse, orbits, Sun Spots, and what I am concerned with today, the Real Estate Cycle. Edward R. Dewy, Phil Anderson, and several contemporary researchers have identified the 18.5 year cycle for housing.
In my Conferences, I use January 1, 2010 as the turning point. Researchers and statistics indicate the Real Estate cycle is 18.5 years which places the next bottom July 1, 2028; in a perfect world. That is almost 10 years from now: so what?
The Real Estate Cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again. Cycle data in the US recorded as far back as 300 years; to pre-revolution! Also repeating in the data is a period of vulnerability for a Housing Correction 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom. This corresponds to July 2017 to June 2019; the current time frame!
When investing, these cycles become exit and entry points for Capital Deployment as well harbingers for Economic Distress for Real Estate Slowdowns seem to be always accompanied by a Stock, Bond, or Economic corrections which will affect jobs, interest rates, Foreign Exchange, and therefore businesses and families. Forewarned is forearmed. I have been warning about this vulnerability for 18 months; advising to raise cash and reduce debt.
This is not good news. As you know by now, I have been in the Real Estate business for over 45 years and I have experienced first hand the effects of the Business Cycle and the Real Estate Cycle. My first experience with a Cycle Completion taught me to respect the sheer and unforgiving power of the Cycle and I have been a Student ever since. I will share what I have learned.
There is a Cycle to Everything; rain, drought, moon, eclipse, orbits, Sun Spots, and what I am concerned with today, the Real Estate Cycle. Edward R. Dewy, Phil Anderson, and several contemporary researchers have identified the 18.5 year cycle for housing. The Great Financial Crisis and the bursting of the unsustainable Housing Bubble is an indelible period burned in many Investors memories. The decline started really in 2007 and accelerated into 2008. My Home market is the Phoenix MSA ; one of the 4 most adversely affected markets in the Nation. I definitely remember! What is harder to pinpoint is the bottom of the trough as it becomes a process drawn out over several months. However, in the Phoenix MSA, bottom was achieved sometime in the very late 2009 to very early 2010. Virtually all of the troubled markets seemed to bottom together. In my Conferences, I use January 1, 2010 as the turning point. Researchers and statistics indicate the Real Estate cycle is 18.5 years which places the next bottom July 1, 2028; in a perfect world. That is almost 10 years from now: so what?
Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk!
The Real Estate Cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again. Cycle data in the US recorded as far back as 300 years; to pre-revolution! Also repeating in the data is a period of vulnerability for a Housing Correction 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom. This corresponds to July 2017 to June 2019; the current time frame! These corrections can be very vicious or relatively mild. My personal concern is for an Epic Correction. When investing, these cycles become exit and entry points for Capital Deployment as well harbingers for Economic Distress for Real Estate Slowdowns seem to be always accompanied by a Stock, Bond, or Economic corrections which will affect jobs, interest rates, Foreign Exchange, and therefore businesses and families. Forewarned is forearmed. I have been warning about this vulnerability for 18 months; advising to raise cash and reduce debt. Nationally, Existing Home Sales have dropped for the last 7 months and September sales plunged! Indeed, as an example, the very vibrant Denver Market experienced a 30% drop in sales across all price ranges in a 30 day period from August to September. Declining sales is the preview to declining prices. The Correction in Housing has probably begun!
This graph, courtesy of ECRI, clearly shows the decline.
Someday, the cause of the decline will be researched, but now coupled with the Housing Correction is a Global Economic Slowdown underway causing turmoil overseas and ravaging the Emerging Markets. The Slowdown had been recognized by very few and the effects have not become apparent in the US yet.
However, Ned Davis Research has released their recent findings with a 92% certainty that a Global Recession has already started or will very soon. Should a Recession arrive, employment and business will certainly suffer. However, Rental Properties actually improve. Cash flow from conservative rentals should provide a consistent Income Stream for you and your family. As buyers are removed from the Buying Market, the Rental Market actually improves as the demand for housing remains, but the ownership changes. A prepared Investor can actually make purchases at discounted prices and quickly lease them as demand for housing should remain.
Get out of Debt, Raise Cash, Sell any marginal Property NOW!!! Review Financial Vulnerabilities to Equities and Bonds. Reduce Risk! Baby Boomers should look for cash flow from more conservative assets as the typical Stock Portfolio loss from a recession is 39.6%; at my age, an unacceptable loss. A vicious recession can put stock losses in the 60-90% range. Certainly a game Changer! Rentals should be assessed for tenant quality rather than maximizing Rental Rates. Mortgages should be reviewed for refinancing to fixed rate encumbrances. Core properties especially should be debt free or extremely low LTV’s to provide Income and act as a Lifeboat in any Turmoil. Protect your capital, Protect your Credit, protect your FAMILY!
The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action!
Everyone is always amazed at how quickly the Stock Market can drop! The Stock Market declined 1300 points in 7 days! Oct 3, the Dow recorded a nominal new high; in a video, I suggested that would be an outstanding time to take profits. The adage “you cannot go broke taking a profit” certainly applies. More than profits, take at least half out of Harm’s Way and reduce Risk and Exposure. Back in February, when the Stock Market dropped 3000 points in just a few weeks and then stabilized, many analysis suggested the Market would recover to record a new high.
Indeed, there was a gap on the S&P near 2830 which further suggested a return to the old highs.
The market did recover and did make a nominal new high; perhaps a “Double Top? Only for a day! After 1300 points, the question now is will the Stock Market recover and again make another nominal new high or is the Top for this Cycle already achieved? The answer should not matter; as a baby Boomer, can we really take the chance? Can we assume the Risk?
The decision to retire is a Financial Decision, not an Age Requirement! Once Financial Freedom is achieved, one’s Life’s Savings, Nest Egg, Capital Stack must be preserved. A simple recognition of Risk demands action! An assessment of Vulnerabilities should be conducted with your Financial Professional for your protection. By all measures, the current Stock Market has provided the participants with excellent returns; however, many metrics point to a vulnerable market. Although the current market may go considerably higher, there comes a time when Prudence demands thought; how much downside can be tolerated? There is Historic Margin debt financing the portfolios; leverage accentuates gains and creates tremendous profits in a Rising Market.
A Declining Market creates “Air Pocket” plunges as margin Calls produce stock liquidations usually at precarious moments accelerating the downside. At 65, 69, or 72 years of age and beyond, there is no time to recover losses. There is no “Long Run” left! Should a portfolio experience a 39.6% decline which represents the losses incurred in a typical cycle completion, how would your Life be affected? The market may be Vulnerable, are YOU?
There are times to be Aggressive; now is not one of them. Consider reducing exposure to Risk and increasing the Cash Flow component of your Wealth Portfolio. Risk cannot be totally eliminated, but can be drastically reduced. The recognition of change is a great advantage; there will be another Bull Market, it will just change asset classes. Consider accumulating very conservative rental properties in the entry level price range. Typically, there are very good opportunities close to everyone’s home. There are several strong growth markets across America that may provide conservative, consistent, cash flow for many years that may prove to be a “Lifeboat” for your Family and your Future.
1For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:
2ba time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted; 3ba time to break down, and a time to build up; 5aa time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; 6a time to seek, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away; 7a time to tear, and a time to sew…
Something has changed! A Global down turn is underway; it can be seen in the Industrial statistics, the”Yield Curve” Spreads, the Baltic Dry Index. The slowdown can be seen in declining Home Mortgage Applications and increasingly higher Auto loan delinquencies; much, much higher credit card debt with slower repayments. Not surprisingly, the Spring Real Estate market in many regions of the US are exhibiting slowing sales when Property sales should be seasonally expanding. These are all signs of an aging Business Cycle.
This happens in Free Markets; it happened in 2010, 2012, and a longer decline in 2015. Each decline was met with Global Central Bank interference in the form of massive Liquidity injections via purchases in the Equity Markets and massive purchases of all forms of Bonds and Debt Instruments. Maybe a not so “Free market”.
Something has changed! Instead of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), rates are rising! Instead of Massive Global Central Bank purchasing in a declining market, the Federal Reserve is actually selling! In April of 2017, the Central Banks were purchasing at the rate on $1.7 Trillion Dollars; tapering in April 2018 to an alleged big fat ZERO! The ECB is still caught supporting the European Markets as is the Bank of Japan for the Japanese Markets. The simple reason is that no else is willing to enter theses markets; no one entering at the current reduced and manipulated rates!
Something has Changed! Without the Financial Credit Pulse of coordinated Global Central Banks, Volatility and RISK have reappeared. The support has been removed and The Federal Reserve has announced not only are they NOT purchasing, but they are selling; $8 Billion Feb 5, 2018 alone. It is time to Pay Attention!!!
Your Wealth is at Risk! Americans 55 years and older have a 70% of their Nest Egg in the Stock Market and 20% in the Bond Market; rising rates devastate Bond Funds! Those approaching retirement age are not “in it for the long Haul!” There is not enough time to recoup losses before the funds are needed. There are times to be Aggressive and times to be Conservative; the Fed has transparently announced their intentions. This may be a time to be very conservative. In fact, one does not need to be fully invested 100% of the time. Without support, the Markets are free to act the way Markets are suppose to act. The next downturn could be EPIC!
Something has changed! Your Future is at stake! Now might be a very appropriate time to review your goals and concerns with your Financial Professional. Maybe an “Exit Strategy” should be developed with a goal to transfer into different asset classes.
Ecclesiastes 3:12 I perceived that there is nothing better for them than to be joyful and to do good as long as they live…
“Timing; it is all about Timing!” “ Know when to get off!” “There are times to be aggressive and times to be cautious!” “It is not what you make, but what you keep that Counts” “Trees do not grow to the sky!”
These adages are especially true today regarding the Historic levels of both the Stock and Bond Markets. These sayings mimic real life experience and explain that Life is a series of Cycles that ebb and flow throughout History. It is Wisdom that allows one the courage to ACT! Courage will be needed to recognize danger and courage will be needed to Preserve your Wealth for the Future!
Stock Market Cycles have characteristics of a Wave Pattern that peaks about every 7 years; examples of the latest bubbles are March 2000, then December 2007 (7.5 years), and now almost 10 years from the last Stock Market Peak; courtesy of the World’s Central Banks. The final push to the top often is exaggerated with huge gains associated with the Peaking Process.; a vertical price appreciation spike often develops near the cycle end, adding to the Mania. The Mantra of “This Time is Different” is almost universal in the topping process as no one wants to believe the “Good Times” are ending. The Federal Reserve has announced it will no longer support the markets; rather, the Fed is withdrawing liquidity at a scheduled rate of $510 Billion for 2018. The “Good Times” are over! The Central Banks of the World have also declared their intention to bring Central Bank purchases to a screeching halt from $2 Trillion to ZERO by April of 2018. Beware, the Party IS OVER!! “What goes up, must come down.”
If the Cycle has been artificially stretched by Central Bank intervention and the Banks have declared their intentions to end this intervention in BOTH the Stock and Bond Markets, it is time to “Jump Ship”. One does not need to be fully invested at all times. Numerous Private and Institutional Clients have already begun to take profits. Perhaps removing the original investment from any Risk or “Harm’s Way” would be prudent; parking the proceeds in Cash. Preserving Wealth will allow one to participate in different Investment Cycles such as the Commodity Cycle that appears to be in the bottoming process. Much of the Price Risk has been “Drained” from that Asset class as the demand for Raw Materials has “fallen off a cliff” and is beginning to show some signs of improvement. The Commodity Cycle, once it starts to rise, often completes in 7.5 years; plenty of time to season more true Wealth. Consider this, the Housing Cycle is a much longer cycle of 18.5 years that should Peak and Possibly Spike in the 2023/24 time frame. Investing in Housing now will allow participation in the Commodity Cycle as well as the Real Estate Cycle. Raw Materials are necessary for Construction, as they inflate, housing will follow; thus benefiting from two powerful trends.
Something has changed! A Global down turn is underway; it can be seen in the Industrial statistics, the”Yield Curve” Spreads, the Baltic Dry Index. The slowdown can be seen in declining Home Mortgage Applications and increasingly higher Auto loan delinquencies; much, much higher credit card debt with slower repayments. Not surprisingly, the Spring Real Estate market in many regions of the US are exhibiting slowing sales when Property sales should be seasonally expanding. These are all signs of an aging Business Cycle.
