Archive for Paul Volcker

No Recession Narrative is full of Baloney! Who do you believe? Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 9, 2023 by paulthepoke

John 18:38 Pilate says to Him, “What is truth?” And having said this, he went out again to the Jews and says to them, “I find no guilt in Him.

Who is most concerned about YOU? Do you trust the Federal Government to take care of YOU?

What you decide and what you start to realize, is going to make a huge impact on the way you survive in the Economy in the next 18-24 months.

Now, the Government and Wall Street would like you to believe we are heading toward a soft landing; that continues to be the narrative. Now, there are lots of advantages for Wall Street and the Administration. The Administration does not want to be blamed for a bad economy and bringing a Recession to our doorsteps.

What you decide is going to make a huge difference for YOU!

There has been a soft landing ONE time in history. That was in the 1990’s.

We are currently experiencing historic interest rate hikes. Pay off your credit card debt immediately. Raise cash if you can.

Wall Street gets paid on your money, assets under management (AUM).

Michael Douville sees a hard landing coming. Bankruptcies are increasing. Stores are closing around the country. Shipping box production is declining rapidly. Manufacturing jobs are in contraction.

Interest on government debt is heading towards $1,000,000,000,000 (trillion) per year.

The definition is the problem; what constitutes “Unemployed”? There are about 35.5 million working aged people who are not in the workforce. They are not counted in the 3.5% unemployment figures. What are these people doing? They are not working, and not disabled, not stay at home parents; what are they doing? If they would like to work, yet cannot find a job, then the unemployment rate is waaaay more than 3.5%. Further, how can there be a robust economy with that number of people idle.

Jobs Report: 585,000 full time jobs lost: 972,000 part-time added, and 118,000 new multi-job workers.

Liquidity (cash) is coming out of the market at a record pace. It looks like a Recession coming to me.

Germany is already officially in a Recession.

~

Paul Volcker absolutely destroyed my Real Estate portfolio. He destroyed my Real Estate practice and I lost absolutely everything. I was a very young man; a product of the 1980 to 1982 double recession. When Paul Volcker stepped on the Gas and raised interest rates and literally destroyed my Business, my Real Estate practice, my holdings. I lost everything. Paul Volcker raised interest rates to the point where everybody stopped.

In Chicago, there were 60,000 Journeymen Electricians out of work, steel mills closed, Bethlehem Steel and Republic Steel, closed. Auto plants closed, retail was affected, construction was affected. It was awful. I lost virtually everything I owned…

Current Chairman Jerome Powell’s hero is Paul Volcker.

I know what can happen.

DISCLAIMERS: Any information or advice available on this channel is intended for educational and general guidance only. Michael Douville shall not be liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of access to or use of any of the content available on this channel.

Consult a financial advisor or other wealth management professional before you make investments of any kind. Do your homework!

Although Michael Douville and his affiliates take all reasonable care to ensure that the contents of this channel are accurate and up to date, all information contained on it is provided ‘as is.’

Michael Douville makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained on this channel.

Any links to other websites are provided only as a convenience and Michael Douville encourages you to read the privacy statements of any third-party websites.

All comments will be reviewed by Michael Douville and staff and may be deleted if deemed inappropriate. Comments which are off-topic, offensive or promotional will not be posted. The comments/posts are from members of the public and do not necessarily reflect the views of Michael Douville and his affiliates.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

Unemployment & Brace For Impact, Recession! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Culture, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 8, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 6:6-11 Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest. How long will you lie there, O sluggard? When will you arise from your sleep? A little sleep, a little slumber, a little folding of the hands to rest, and poverty will come upon you like a robber, and want like an armed man.

What is the REAL Unemployment 3.7% or closer to 25%?

I am confused. The official Unemployment Rate is 3.7%. That means that 96.3% are working! The Economy should be robust! Yet, we see problems in the Economy, there is talk of heading into a Recession. However, Official Unemployment is only 3.7%; low unemployment is associated with a very good economy.

The population is 335M, 167M working leaves 168M unaccounted for. The 99.8M are working age, not in the workforce. There are still 68 million for under 18 and over 65. The calculations are by no means implied to be deadly accurate; more scratch pad math to account for what appears to be a huge discrepancy.

It would be very interesting for a study to determine how many jobs are full time and how many are working multiple jobs that may be counted more than once. I suspect that working even 1 hour a month might qualify as employed. The true situation may be worse.

The Federal Reserve Electronic Data System has so much information. A much better study would be very eye-opening! It would be very interesting to determine how many jobs are full-time and how many people are working multiple jobs that might be counted more than once!

Manufacturing has also declined for over 2 years and is now negative, negative 4.24% and yet we have only 3.7% unemployment. How is that even possible. With 3.7% unemployment, we should be in a robust economy, but we are not!

Bankruptcies are going up to levels last associated with the 2020 COVID Recession and the GFC Recession.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

Brace for Impact! Hard Landing says Federal Reserve!

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Brace for Impact! Looks like we are going to have a Hard Landing. Even the Federal Reserve’s own Economists are out with a report.

Those companies that are over-leveraged, firms in distress are likely to have an effect on Investment, Employment, and aggregate activity. Those firms that have been surviving on borrowed money have had their cost of Capital in the way of higher interest rates doubled, maybe tripled. This is going to put a lot of them out of business.

Are we following in the steps of Paul Volcker in the 1970’s? Jerome Powell thinks Volcker is a hero!

A Recipe for a hard Landing is Historic Tightening, the lag effects are 9-15 months, and we are just feeling them now.

We have Sticky Inflation. A good recession will kill inflation.

We have Banks in trouble, and they are tightening underwriting. Banks are losing reserves, losing deposits. Money supply is decreasing.

Manufacturing has entered a level of recession at 46.2. There is a severe drop in the need for goods.

The 10/2 year yield curve is inverted around 100 basis points or 1%.

Pending home sales are dropping. Prices will eventually decline.

Be aware of distressed metropolitans across the United States. Recovery may take up to five years. Crime is a result of the vacuum left by diminished occupancy of central cities and bad governance. As the Economy worsens, expect increased crime and social unrest. We can also add expect increased taxes as municipalities lose vital revenue.

Consumer credit card debt is exploding.

Michael’s comments on the hotel, Airbnb crisis:

In these cycle completions, all of the excesses are removed. Over-leveraged, over-optimistic, and under-capitalized Speculators usually realize losses. The larger the excess, the larger the losses. I am assuming the short-term rental owners will have a reality check soon, No one knows for sure, but the number floating around here in Scottsdale is 4200 units. The demand for them has fallen significantly, but the cost of ownership remains. When the Hotels start to reduce rates, the end is near for the novice. Not only is the market going against them, but many municipalities are stepping in with regulations. Neighbors hate the party house next door!

%d bloggers like this: