recession | Paul the Poke

Archive for recession

Boom to Bust in 2024… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags boom, bust, Debt, economy, Inflation, Lag Effect, recession on March 7, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

I think we have a major recession coming. I have been talking about this for a long time. These recessions do not start tomorrow, there are signposts along the way. The signs have not changed the Recession is coming, it’s coming, it’s coming.

We have talked about this since March of 2022. You have had plenty of time to get your house in order: Build cash reserves, get out of debt.

It takes 8-15 months for the rate increases to be felt; it’s called the Lag Effect. I think we have an Economic Bust coming.

We have had a Boom. In 2020, the Pandemic came along and scared everyone. The economy went in the tank.

The policy response was to pump $ trillions into the Economy; $10 Trillion just here in the US. Central Banks around the world added another $10 Trillion which caused the Inflation Monster.

Liquidity is drying up. Quantitative tightening is happening. Countries around the world are struggling to pay their bills. This is not a third world problem. Even Switzerland is running out of cash. How long before bubbles start to pop?

Appreciation of Home Prices Nationally are slowing and will soon be negative. States like California, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey will suffer more due to the difference in Population Migration. San Francisco has already lost 35% in value. This will be a national issue. Florida, Texas, and Arizona offer the best investment returns.

Proverbs 9:9 Give instruction to a wise man, and he will be still wiser; teach a righteous man, and he will increase in learning.

https://michaeldouville.com/

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The Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags business, economy, Federal Reserve, interest rates, inverted yield curve, liquidity, M2, money, money supply, recession on February 11, 2023 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him.

In the Business World, Love does not make the World go round, it is LIQUIDITY that makes the world go round. Without liquidity, the Business World slows. The quicker it is withdrawn, the quicker we head into Recession.

Between March 2020 and March 2022, the Treasury and The Federal Reserve added $10 Trillion. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think Inflation may appear? Well now the “Powers to be” are removing Liquidity at a startling rate.

Places like Sri Lanka, and Lebanon are encountering civil disruption because food and fuel cannot be purchased. Even the Swiss National Bank has received a cash infusion from the FED.

The Inverted Yield is rivaling Paul Volcker’s era and the Fed is not through yet. The cost of Capital has doubled or tripled.

I believe the Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession.

Caution is advised.

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Market Overview with Michael Douville & Dr. Charles Nenner, December 2022

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags Bear Market, Bitcoin, bonds, copper, Crypto, Dr. Charles Nenner, economy, gold, Inflation, interest rates, lumber, oil, real estate, recession, S&P 500, silver, social unrest, US dollar, war on December 13, 2022 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 1:5 A wise man will hear, and will increase learning; and a man of understanding shall attain unto wise counsels…

Charles Nenner and Michael Douville discuss the results of Nenner Research.

Bitcoin is discussed and how regular the cycles are clearly delineating the top and bottom creating excellent trading opportunities. Charles’ forecasts are reviewed as well as over 200% in Crypto gains versus an asset loss of 82%.

Bonds are indicating lower rates for a a short time which gives an opportunity to sell property, or refinance.

Charles also is predicting a very difficult economy with social upheaval and geo-political problems.

Time got away from us! This is a little longer than usual, but full of very good and timely information.

Click on the audio/video link below for mathematical analysis, data, and commentary. This video is loaded with content and economic information. Now would be a good time to listen!

Watch the latest interview of Charles Nenner with Michael Douville where they discuss:

1️⃣S&P

2️⃣Problems in the economy

3️⃣Recession, Inflation & Bear Market

4️⃣Gold & Silver

5️⃣Commodity index going down

6️⃣Bonds, Fed Funds & 10-year Treasury

7️⃣Bitcoin & Crypto Currencies

8️⃣Lumber, Lennar & Copper

9️⃣Crude oil is down until the end of the month

🔟Dollar cycle, War Cycle & Social unrest.

📌Learn how Charles Nenner’s unique research can help you get better experience for your future investments: https://www.charlesnenner.com/ 🚀Sign up for a FREE 30-day trial today!

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

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No Confusion, A Severe Recession is Coming! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags Debt, economy, energy, Euro, Europe, Federal Reserve, Inflation, interest rate hike, money, mortgage, recession on October 13, 2022 by paulthepoke

Deuteronomy 15:1-2 At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the LORD’S remission has been proclaimed.

The “Seasonally Adjusted” employment numbers came in higher than expected. This will virtually guarantee another Fed Rate Hike into an already struggling Economy. Manufacturing jobs are decreasing. Job openings are decreasing.

Chicago PMI is below 50 to 45 indicating contraction. Orders for manufacturing are slower. Dr. Copper is dropping indicating a recession is coming. People are taking on more consumer debt with credit cards.

European inflation is over 10%. The cost of energy continues to increase. The Euro is under pressure and declining in value.

In a previous video, I mentioned hiking into a declining economy has always resulted in a Recession. If the Fed hiked in September, I expected a Severe Recession; further hikes will result in further deterioration of the Economy into something that may be much worse that a Severe Recession!!!!

Mortgage applications are at a 25-year low and in Phoenix, there are already rumors of staff cuts at local lenders. Get ready for a phenomenal buying opportunity; not yet but coming.

Dr. Charles Nenner believes there will be a bounce in the Equity and Bond Markets too. He looks to late October into November for the bounce. Be nimble and quick, it is just a bounce in the markets.

https://michaeldouville.com/

The Federal Reserve has it all under control (sarcasm).

Inflation will no longer be a concern in the coming months. Is inflation peaking? Food, energy, and housing inflation continues to rise.

Your Job is going to be your concern. The Federal Reserve is using the Strategy of Demand Destruction to control Inflation. They know that Severe Recessions KILL Inflation. It also kills jobs, and Businesses, investments, futures…

Real wages are decreasing. People have less money.

More Interest rate hikes are likely to come. Pay off your debts. The cost of money is going up.

It may be awhile. At some point, opportunity is coming. Be prepared and ready!

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Nowhere to hide! Uh-Oh! Michael Douville & Charles Nenner

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags base metals, cash, commodities, copper, Dr. Charles Nenner, economy, gold, Inflation, interest rates, natural gas, oil, recession, silver, stock market, US dollar, wheat on July 21, 2022 by paulthepoke

Isaiah 46:10 Declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times things which have not been done, saying, “My purpose will be established, and I will accomplish all My good pleasure.”

Isaiah 14:27 For the Lord of hosts has planned, and who can frustrate it? And as for His stretched-out hand, who can turn it back?

Dr. Charles Nenner reviews some major markets including the Goldman-Sachs Commodities, the DBB ETF for Base Metals, the Proprietary graph for Copper, Corn, Wheat, Gold, Silver, and Natural Gas. All showing weakness… there is nowhere to hide.

Rule #1, Don’t Lose Money!

Follow the math and do not listen to the media.

Cash is king. The US Dollar is strong and gaining.

Photo: iStock

Dr. Nenner says a significant recession is coming. The economy is getting weaker. Brace yourself, this may take awhile. Nenner discusses the likelihood of a significant stock market correction. Would you believe a Dow 5,000 target scenario? The average recession costs American’s 40% of their portfolio.

Commodities are rolling over in the short term. Inflation appears to be slowing. But watch out. Eventually, prices are going higher again towards the end of the year.

What does Dr. Nenner’s work say about gold and silver? The BIG bull market is coming, but when? Be patient and wait for the right opportunity to go long and buy. Listen to Dr. Nenner’s commentary and analysis for details.

Interest rates have turned and rates are going up. We are witnessing a significant cycle change according to Nenner’s research.

Wheat prices appear to be on the cusp of turning up again.

Energy prices are discussed in this video. Oil and natural gas are significant considerations to our pocket books.

Dr. Nenner recommended to go into cash around the first of the year 2022. If you had listened to Nenner’s research and recommendations, your retirement account and stocks would have been spared a 20-30% reduction.

Don’t fight the cycles…

Click on the audio/video link below for mathematical analysis, data, and commentary. This video is loaded with content and economic information.

DON’T MISS OUT ON THIS OPPORTUNITY… Charles Nenner will be holding a Private Live Webinar where attendees can listen live and ask some questions. Attendance is going to be limited. This amazing opportunity to get a insiders view on the markets is scheduled for August 7th, 2022. Send your request to attend to info@charlesnenner.com. Details will be sent.

https://www.charlesnenner.com/

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

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Something Evil This Way Comes… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags commodities, CPI, employment, Inflation, jobless claims, PPI, real estate, recession on June 20, 2022 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 3:18 She (wisdom) is a tree of life to those who lay hold of her; those who hold her fast are called blessed.

Michael Douville is making the call for a recession. It is time to prepare. Think through your financial plan.

Inflation is the culprit. Gas prices are out of control and there is no end in sight.

Real Estate continues to increase in price in different parts of the United States. Demand continues for housing. It would appear rental property is a consideration. Home Buyer sentiment is crashing. One size does not fit all.

Some commodities (lumber, copper) are dropping in price.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is beginning to slow.

Jobless claims are beginning to increase. Jobs are starting to go away.

University of Michigan’s consumer index is the lowest in history.

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates into an economic slow down. Historically, 100% of the time, this leads to a recession.

michael@michaeldouville.com

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

https://michaeldouville.com/

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Market Extremes… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags Dow Jones, Global Economy, global slowdown, John Hussman, markets, recession, stock market, tariffs, trade wars on May 13, 2019 by paulthepoke

Esther 1:13 Then the king said to the wise men who knew the times (for this was the king’s procedure toward all who were versed in law and judgment…)

Risk has entered the market place. Metrics from John Hussman indicate the market may be heading for a wild ride. Metrics from Hussman’s work indicate the same levels of risk from the Dot Com Bubble and the late 1920’s. Rumors of trade wars and tariffs are in the news. Michael Douville posted this on his website and YouTube on 5/9/19.

5/13/19: The Dow Jones was down 617 points or 2.38%, NASDAQ was 270 points or 3.41%, S&P 500 was down 69 points or 2.41%.

Michael updates what is happening around the world and how it will impact the U.S. Understand the economic times and conditions we are living. Do you have a plan?

Click on the link below for Michael’s update.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

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Turkey Enters Recession

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags Beth Togarmah, currency, Gomer, International banks, Meshech, President Recep Erdogan, recession, Tubal, Turkey, Turkish Lira, US dollar on March 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

As I warned in October of 2018, Turkey was heading into Economic Turmoil. Now, it appears Turkey has officially entered a Recession.
-Michael Douville

https://michaeldouville.com/

For Seven years Turkey has borrowed from Western Banks; European Banks like Deutsche Bank seem to be the favorites. However, JP Morgan has estimated that $179 Billion US or 25% of Turkish external debt will rollover between August of 2018 to July of 2019. Some $146 Billion in private debt. As shown by the chart below, the Turkish Lira has recovered some from the August 2018 conversion low of 6.95 Turkish Lira to the US Dollar, however, the repayment in Lira is significantly higher than what was originally borrowed. The Cyclical change in International Exchange Rates has drastically altered the Foreign Debt owed by Turkish Governmental Agencies and Private Corporations. If Turks borrowed $100 in 2014 with the exchange rate at 2 Lire to the US Dollar, they received 200 lira. Today, not only must they pay interest, they repay with drastically depreciated currency at 5.4 Lira to the US Dollar; instead of 200 lira, it is today over 540 lira. Almost 2.5 times the original amount! Loan Shark Territory!!

The drastic depreciation of Turkish currency has driven local inflation through the roof with skyrocketing prices for basic commodities like fuel for the family car, electricity to light the home and maintain modern life, food, medicine such as heart medication for elders, insulin, and hospital supplies. Not only have prices risen, but as the currency depreciates, the international suppliers are reluctant to extend credit limiting quantities. Not only can basics be expensive, they can be difficult to obtain. There is no end in sight.

As I warned in October of 2018, Turkey was heading into Economic Turmoil. Now, it appears Turkey has officially entered a Recession.

Repayment will be even more difficult as Business Conditions deteriorate.International Systemically Important Banks will be at risk for non-payment of Turkish Debt or delayed payment, and even possibly total default of loans made to Turkish entities. The Global Economy is intertwined; these may be early symptoms that will eventually spread. As Revenues decline, the solutions for repayment to worried Banks decline in tandem with the accounts receivable. Debt default may be a more and more plausible option; we will know shortly in the next few quarters.

Look for more and more Military Adventure in Economically Challenged nations as Governments seek to distract their population. Globally Systemic Banks are not prepared for an Economic Contagion of Sovereign defaults; well known but under-Capitalized Banks could fail. A Global Recession will lead to major Civil unrest; political institutions will be challenged. The US Dollar and US Financial Assets likely will rise as Capital flees to Safe Havens. Turmoil throughout the World will rise in both Developed and Un-developed nations. It is time to be careful, it is time to be cautious, it is time to be very conservative.

Raise cash, pay down debts, look to US short term Treasuries for safety of principal. Extra food, medicine, along with cash for 3 to 6 months of expenses might be prudent to have at home. Review Income Streams for credit downgrade vulnerabilities, review Tenant quality to protect Cash Flows, and prepare to purchase the opportunities that will surely arise.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Ezekiel 38-39 looms…

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Recession in Europe, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags economic cycle, economy, Europe, Germany, global market, Italy, Netherlands, recession, Timing Model on February 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Recession may be starting in Europe!

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Real Estate is an illiquid asset, tenants and leases and sales and marketing and escrows take time. The timing model clearly indicates slowdown and for over a year the warnings have been very clear. The slowdown is now fact and price declines are starting to become visible.

Europe is teetering on the edge of a Recession. A Recession with Historic Debt and non-existent Interest rates!

New data shows Central Bank Intervention in the Global markets; markets react quickly as seen in the recent runup. However, the liquidity lag time for the general Economy is easily a few quarters and may be too late to avoid a Recession.

Economic indications indicate Italy and the Netherlands have entered into recession. How should we prepare for global economic recession.

Is the Powerhouse of Europe, Germany, heading into Recession? What will this mean for the United States?

Click on the video for German economic data

A Recession now could be EPIC! It also coincides with the Timing Model; the precursor to the ‘Explosive” Phase.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

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Recession Reading Slowdown Worsening

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags economy, Global Economy, recession on January 28, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 6:6-8 Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest.

January 2019: Countries around the globe are entering into Recession. Will it happen here? Prepare yourself for a slowing economy.

Updated economic data from the United States and global economies contained in the video below.