Archive for recession

No Confusion, A Severe Recession is Coming! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , on October 13, 2022 by paulthepoke

Deuteronomy 15:1-2 At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the LORD’S remission has been proclaimed.

The “Seasonally Adjusted” employment numbers came in higher than expected. This will virtually guarantee another Fed Rate Hike into an already struggling Economy. Manufacturing jobs are decreasing. Job openings are decreasing.

Chicago PMI is below 50 to 45 indicating contraction. Orders for manufacturing are slower. Dr. Copper is dropping indicating a recession is coming. People are taking on more consumer debt with credit cards.

European inflation is over 10%. The cost of energy continues to increase. The Euro is under pressure and declining in value.

In a previous video, I mentioned hiking into a declining economy has always resulted in a Recession. If the Fed hiked in September, I expected a Severe Recession; further hikes will result in further deterioration of the Economy into something that may be much worse that a Severe Recession!!!!

Mortgage applications are at a 25-year low and in Phoenix, there are already rumors of staff cuts at local lenders. Get ready for a phenomenal buying opportunity; not yet but coming.

Dr. Charles Nenner believes there will be a bounce in the Equity and Bond Markets too. He looks to late October into November for the bounce. Be nimble and quick, it is just a bounce in the markets.

https://michaeldouville.com/

The Federal Reserve has it all under control (sarcasm).

Inflation will no longer be a concern in the coming months. Is inflation peaking? Food, energy, and housing inflation continues to rise.

Your Job is going to be your concern. The Federal Reserve is using the Strategy of Demand Destruction to control Inflation. They know that Severe Recessions KILL Inflation. It also kills jobs, and Businesses, investments, futures…

Real wages are decreasing. People have less money.

More Interest rate hikes are likely to come. Pay off your debts. The cost of money is going up.

It may be awhile. At some point, opportunity is coming. Be prepared and ready!

Nowhere to hide! Uh-Oh! Michael Douville & Charles Nenner

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 21, 2022 by paulthepoke

Isaiah 46:10 Declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times things which have not been done, saying, “My purpose will be established, and I will accomplish all My good pleasure.”

Isaiah 14:27 For the Lord of hosts has planned, and who can frustrate it? And as for His stretched-out hand, who can turn it back?

Dr. Charles Nenner reviews some major markets including the Goldman-Sachs Commodities, the DBB ETF for Base Metals, the Proprietary graph for Copper, Corn, Wheat, Gold, Silver, and Natural Gas. All showing weakness… there is nowhere to hide.

Rule #1, Don’t Lose Money!

Follow the math and do not listen to the media.

Cash is king. The US Dollar is strong and gaining.

Photo: iStock

Dr. Nenner says a significant recession is coming. The economy is getting weaker. Brace yourself, this may take awhile. Nenner discusses the likelihood of a significant stock market correction. Would you believe a Dow 5,000 target scenario? The average recession costs American’s 40% of their portfolio.

Commodities are rolling over in the short term. Inflation appears to be slowing. But watch out. Eventually, prices are going higher again towards the end of the year.

What does Dr. Nenner’s work say about gold and silver? The BIG bull market is coming, but when? Be patient and wait for the right opportunity to go long and buy. Listen to Dr. Nenner’s commentary and analysis for details.

Interest rates have turned and rates are going up. We are witnessing a significant cycle change according to Nenner’s research.

Wheat prices appear to be on the cusp of turning up again.

Energy prices are discussed in this video. Oil and natural gas are significant considerations to our pocket books.

Dr. Nenner recommended to go into cash around the first of the year 2022. If you had listened to Nenner’s research and recommendations, your retirement account and stocks would have been spared a 20-30% reduction.

Don’t fight the cycles…

Click on the audio/video link below for mathematical analysis, data, and commentary. This video is loaded with content and economic information.

DON’T MISS OUT ON THIS OPPORTUNITY… Charles Nenner will be holding a Private Live Webinar where attendees can listen live and ask some questions. Attendance is going to be limited. This amazing opportunity to get a insiders view on the markets is scheduled for August 7th, 2022. Send your request to attend to info@charlesnenner.com. Details will be sent.

https://www.charlesnenner.com/

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

Something Evil This Way Comes… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on June 20, 2022 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 3:18 She (wisdom) is a tree of life to those who lay hold of her; those who hold her fast are called blessed.

photo: iStock

Michael Douville is making the call for a recession. It is time to prepare. Think through your financial plan.

Inflation is the culprit. Gas prices are out of control and there is no end in sight.

Real Estate continues to increase in price in different parts of the United States. Demand continues for housing. It would appear rental property is a consideration. Home Buyer sentiment is crashing. One size does not fit all.

Some commodities (lumber, copper) are dropping in price.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is beginning to slow.

Jobless claims are beginning to increase. Jobs are starting to go away.

University of Michigan’s consumer index is the lowest in history.

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates into an economic slow down. Historically, 100% of the time, this leads to a recession.

michael@michaeldouville.com

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Market Extremes… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on May 13, 2019 by paulthepoke

Esther 1:13 Then the king said to the wise men who knew the times (for this was the king’s procedure toward all who were versed in law and judgment…)

Risk has entered the market place. Metrics from John Hussman indicate the market may be heading for a wild ride. Metrics from Hussman’s work indicate the same levels of risk from the Dot Com Bubble and the late 1920’s. Rumors of trade wars and tariffs are in the news. Michael Douville posted this on his website and YouTube on 5/9/19.

5/13/19: The Dow Jones was down 617 points or 2.38%, NASDAQ was 270 points or 3.41%, S&P 500 was down 69 points or 2.41%.

Michael updates what is happening around the world and how it will impact the U.S. Understand the economic times and conditions we are living. Do you have a plan?

Click on the link below for Michael’s update.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Turkey Enters Recession

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , on March 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

As I warned in October of 2018, Turkey was heading into Economic Turmoil. Now, it appears Turkey has officially entered a Recession.

-Michael Douville

https://michaeldouville.com/

For Seven years Turkey has borrowed from Western Banks; European Banks like Deutsche Bank seem to be the favorites. However, JP Morgan has estimated that  $179 Billion US or 25% of Turkish external debt will rollover between August of 2018 to July of 2019.  Some $146 Billion in private debt. As shown by the chart below, the Turkish Lira has recovered some from the August 2018 conversion low of 6.95 Turkish Lira to the US Dollar,  however, the repayment in Lira is significantly higher than what was originally borrowed. The Cyclical change in International Exchange Rates has drastically altered the Foreign Debt owed by Turkish Governmental Agencies and Private Corporations.  If Turks borrowed $100 in 2014 with the exchange rate at 2 Lire to the US Dollar, they received 200 lira. Today, not only must they pay interest, they repay with drastically depreciated currency at 5.4 Lira to the US Dollar; instead of 200 lira, it is today over 540 lira. Almost 2.5 times the original amount! Loan Shark Territory!!

The drastic depreciation of Turkish currency has driven local inflation through the roof with skyrocketing prices for basic commodities like fuel for the family car,  electricity to light the home and maintain modern life, food, medicine such as heart medication for elders, insulin, and hospital supplies. Not only have prices risen, but as the currency depreciates, the international suppliers are reluctant to extend credit limiting quantities. Not only can basics be expensive, they can be difficult to obtain. There is no end in sight.

As I warned in October of 2018, Turkey was heading into Economic Turmoil. Now, it appears Turkey has officially entered a Recession.

Repayment will be even more difficult as Business Conditions deteriorate.International Systemically Important Banks will be at risk for non-payment of Turkish Debt or delayed payment, and even possibly total default of loans made to Turkish entities. The Global Economy is intertwined; these may be early symptoms that will eventually spread. As Revenues decline, the solutions for repayment to worried Banks decline in tandem with the accounts receivable. Debt default may be a more and more plausible option; we will know shortly in the next few quarters.

Look for more and more Military Adventure in Economically Challenged nations as Governments seek to distract their population. Globally Systemic Banks are not prepared for an Economic Contagion of Sovereign defaults; well known but under-Capitalized Banks could fail. A Global Recession will lead to major Civil unrest;  political institutions will be challenged.  The US Dollar and US Financial Assets likely will rise as Capital flees to Safe Havens. Turmoil throughout the World will rise in both Developed and Un-developed nations. It is time to be careful, it is time to be cautious, it is time to be very conservative. 

Raise cash, pay down debts, look to US short term Treasuries for safety of principal. Extra food, medicine, along with cash for 3 to 6 months of expenses might be prudent to have at home. Review Income Streams for credit downgrade vulnerabilities,  review Tenant quality to protect Cash Flows, and prepare to purchase the opportunities that will surely arise.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Ezekiel 38-39 looms…

Recession in Europe, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on February 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Recession may be starting in Europe!

Real Estate is an illiquid asset, tenants and leases and sales and marketing and escrows take time. The timing model clearly indicates slowdown and for over a year the warnings have been very clear. The slowdown is now fact and price declines are starting to become visible.


Europe is teetering on the edge of a Recession. A Recession with Historic Debt and non-existent Interest rates!


New data shows Central Bank Intervention in the Global markets; markets react quickly as seen in the  recent runup. However, the liquidity lag time for the general Economy is easily a few quarters and may be too late to avoid a Recession.

Economic indications indicate Italy and the Netherlands have entered into recession. How should we prepare for global economic recession.


Is the Powerhouse of Europe, Germany, heading into Recession? What will this mean for the United States?

Click on the video for German economic data

A Recession now could be EPIC! It also coincides with the Timing Model; the precursor to the ‘Explosive” Phase.


Recession Reading Slowdown Worsening

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , on January 28, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 6:6-8 Go to the ant, O sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise. Without having any chief, officer, or ruler, she prepares her bread in summer and gathers her food in harvest.

January 2019: Countries around the globe are entering into Recession. Will it happen here? Prepare yourself for a slowing economy.

Updated economic data from the United States and global economies contained in the video below.

Listen to Michael’s latest global economic forecast


Michael is a national syndicated author for the Wall Street Greek.

Recession Watch, January 2019… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on January 14, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 15:21-23 Folly is a joy to him who lacks sense, but a man of understanding walks straight ahead. Without counsel plans fail, but with many advisers they succeed. To make an apt answer is a joy to a man, and a word in season, how good it is!

Recession has hit the western European countries of France and Germany. Social unrest and the yellow vest protests continue.

Asian countries Taiwan, South Korea, and China have entered into recession.

Debt is at risk…
Recession is hitting global markets, will it reach the US?

Michael’s economic calls have been on the money. He is a national, syndicated author for the Wall Street Greek. Great information available!

Russia: An Emerging Market

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 17, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

For evidence pointing to modern day Russia, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/04/ezekiel-38-who-is-magog/

Modern day, 21st century Russians refer to themselves as the ancient Scythians or Magogians. See the link below.

https://paulthepoke.com/2017/08/23/trend-update-putin-netanyahu-meet-in-sochi-russia-august-2017/

https://michaeldouville.com

Russia has an impressive military with Nuclear Weapons, but when it comes to Economic prowess, it is an Emerging Market! It has been only 20 years since Russia collapsed financially and it is still working through the economic disruption. Although blessed with huge Natural Resources, Russia is still very dependent on Foreign Capital to develop it’s mining,  gas and oil fields.  Foreign Capital is needed not only for developing the resources themselves, but the infrastructure to bring them to market.  Global Markets dictate much of Russia’s income as the price of basic materials fluctuate with the Business Cycle. As one of the World’s leading oil producers, Russia has benefited from the recent run up in Oil prices which are expressed in US Dollars. Basic Materials are also expressed in US Dollars, but are very sensitive to demand dynamics; much, much more sensitive. Dollar dependency is a two edged sword for although the demand for the energy component is less elastic, the price can fluctuate wildly.  The price of Natural Resources can plummet as the Global Slowdown intensifies; as with any Emerging Market repayment of Foreign Loans becomes more and more difficult.

The BRICs were the darling of the Investment Community. Now Brazil and India are struggling. China financed much of it’s Capital needs with internal financing through it’s Shadow Banking and while these loans are certainly at risk, they are less visible. Russia has done much better than many Emerging Market Nations, but Russia is still affected by a rising US Dollar and rising Global Interest Rates. The balance of Trade impacts the International repayments. A Global Slowdown is underway and many Emerging Markets are at risk of depleting Dollar Reserves and thus entering a Liquidity Crisis. Which leads to Turkey!

Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken.

Turkey, along with Argentina and Brazil, is rapidly running out of Dollar Reserves. Turkey imports much more than it exports and as it’s currency declines, purchasing power falls dramatically.  Turkey needs Cash to not only finance Government offices, public utilities,  and to service domestic needs, but any recent Military adventures such as last year’s excursion into Iraq and just recently Syria. Everything needs to be financed. The Credit lines from Western Nations and the US come with restrictions which the Turkish Government seems to be unwilling to accept. Turkey is now in overtures to Russia and China to provide US Dollars to solve it’s Liquidity demands. Currently, Turkey is involved in operations with Russia in Syria; an operation that benefits both Geo-politically, but is adverse to Turkish Allies objectives.  This becomes a very interesting puzzle!

Russia and China can forestall Turkey’s liquidity crisis for awhile; a few months, maybe a year. However, both are still Emerging Markets themselves and a prolonged Global downturn will inevitably affect any extension of Credit.

A Global Downturn has been evident for months. Demand for natural Resources and eventually Energy will fall, slowly at first then much more rapidly. Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken. There is still time to prepare; payoff debt, build reserves, store things like food, water, and medicine.  As quickly as possible, build a personal cash reserve held outside of financial institutions and as important, build a Financial Lifeboat of Cash Flowing assets.

https://michaeldouville.com

Remember, the reason for Russia’s future invasion of Israel is economic. Russia will seek to take Israel’s resources.

Ezekiel 38:13 Sheba and Dedan and the merchants of Tarshish and all its leaders will say to you, ‘Have you come to seize spoil? Have you assembled your hosts to carry off plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods, to seize great spoil?’

 

Standing at the CRAPS Table… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 27, 2018 by paulthepoke

 

1 Timothy 6:10-11 For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evils. It is through this craving that some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pangs. But as for you, O man of God, flee these things. Pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, steadfastness, gentleness.

Notice what the verse does not say. It does not say, “Money is the root of all evil.”

It is the love of money that is the problem. Coveting money is the problem. It is the longing and desire and focus. The mental attitude is the issue. Making money in the stock market is not evil. There is nothing wrong with investing. But don’t be greedy…

 

https://michaeldouville.com

Timing is EVERYTHING!!! Investing in Stocks in early 2009 was the perfect time to enter the market. The S&P has enjoyed an unbroken string of positive years for the last 9 years; the second longest in History.  An almost no risk Investment resulting in a 280% increase in the Index including dividend reinvestment; Wow!  If one had the prescience to purchase Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, and Netflix in the same period, multiples of the S&P have been gained; 500-900%. WOW, WOW!!

Using a little longer time line, historically, the Casino was not built on winners!

Recently cracks in the Markets are starting to show. First Netflix missed the projected number of new subscribers and also lower revenue, and on July 17, 2018 the stock dropped 14% in after hours trading immediately after the announcement. This was followed one week later July 26th by Facebook’s lower than projected Quarterly and again after hours experienced the greatest loss in history of over $119 Billion Dollars in 24 hours. Just days later, another tech giant, Twitter, lost 21% in value on July 28th.  Wealthy one day; not so wealthy the next. Timing is Everything!

A player at the Casino has had an extraordinary run of luck; an extravagant bet of $100 has become $12,800 in 8 wins at the Dice Pass line. The player is allowing the winnings to accumulate in a double or nothing strategy. The” House” is encouraging another bet. After all historically, the player has won each time. What should the player do?  Using a little longer time line, historically, the Casino was not built on winners!

Timing is Everything! Assess your goals, assess your needs; you do to need to be 100% invested. You do not need to be invested 100% of the time. Maybe the advice should be take some of the winnings off the table!!! Maybe you have enough and it is time to reduce RISK!

https://michaeldouville.com

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