Archive for cash

Global Recession Coming???

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on March 26, 2019 by paulthepoke

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Michael updates what is happening around the world and how it will impact the U.S. Understand the economic times and conditions we are living. Do you have a plan?

Another indicator that the US might be entering into recession. Michael explains the Yields on Debt indicates recession coming to our shores.


http://www.michaeldouville.com

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? Are you holding debt? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat?


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The 18 year Real Estate Cycle

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on December 17, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

https://michaeldouville.com/

Michael explains the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle that has been going on for a couple hundred years. You can achieve generational wealth by using this cycle to plan your real estate investment strategy.

There is a Cycle to Everything; rain, drought, moon, eclipse, orbits, Sun Spots, and what I am concerned with today, the Real Estate Cycle. Edward R. Dewy, Phil Anderson, and several contemporary researchers have identified the 18.5 year cycle for housing.

In my Conferences, I use January 1, 2010 as the turning point. Researchers and statistics indicate the Real Estate cycle is 18.5 years which places the next bottom July 1, 2028; in a perfect world. That is almost 10 years from now: so what?

The Real Estate Cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again. Cycle data in the US recorded as far back as 300 years; to pre-revolution!  Also repeating in the data is a period of vulnerability for a Housing Correction 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom. This corresponds to July 2017 to June 2019; the current time frame!

When investing, these cycles become exit and entry points for Capital Deployment as well harbingers for Economic Distress for Real Estate Slowdowns seem to be always accompanied by a Stock, Bond, or Economic corrections which will affect jobs, interest rates,  Foreign Exchange,  and therefore businesses and families. Forewarned is forearmed. I have been warning about this vulnerability for 18 months; advising  to raise cash and reduce debt.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Time to Raise Cash…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Leviticus 19:35-36 You shall do no wrong in judgment, in measurement of weight, or capacity. You shall have just balances, just weights, a just ephah, and a just hin; I am the LORD your God, who brought you out from the land of Egypt.

Proverbs 11:1 A false balance is an abomination to the LORD, but a just weight is his delight.

Currency manipulation is global issue. The above verses are two of many examples provided in Scripture. All currencies are not balanced the same. Imagine that, the world’s economy is out of balance in regards to the standard of the Bible. All currencies are not created equal. There are global economic consequences when standards are out of balance and there is reconfiguration. God is not a big fan.

 

Michael

Many Researchers have been forecasting a rising US Dollar. This seems like an impossibility, but technical methodology from several different disciplines are coming to the same conclusion. A top researcher in March placed a 103.8 target from 88.1; currently, the dollar has risen to 92.46. Should the target be exceeded, a Spike could develop going much higher. The Dollar rose .7% on May 1, 2018 alone.  A strong dollar will pressure the repayments of debt across the Globe in an environment of struggling Municipalities, States, and Sovereign debtors. A stronger dollar will not only change the repayments dynamics, but the exports in Emerging Market Countries are affected as Commodities expressed in US Dollars lose value.

A stronger Dollar is enhanced not only by the perception that the US Economy will be stronger than any other, but also by the Interest Rate differential across the Globe and the avowed Federal Reserve policy of raising short term rates. Higher rates from both the Federal Reserve and the LIBOR affect 40-60% of all Global Debt; currently exceeding the 2008 Debt Record and now over $217 Trillion Dollars. Charles Nenner called the 10 year Treasury low at 1.6% in July of 2016. The trend line from 1981 has been broken at the 2.65% level and has now exceeded 3%; better than an 85% increase. With the trend line broken, rates could rise swiftly and approach 4.5% faster than thought possible. Normalization is occurring as Central Bank intervention recedes. Normal could easily be 5-6%; a double from here.

Prices in asset classes will be affected. Housing prices will be compressed as rates rise; Home buyers buy based on payments. Higher rates equal lower affordability; some Luxury Markets are already affected!  Equity prices will be affected as repatriated funds are reduced inversely with a stronger dollar. The US Dollar has depreciated 24% since the Presidential election. Take for example a US manufactured auto sold for 20,000 Euros in Germany in December 2016; the same car sold for 20,000 Euros in December 2017 netted the US Manufacturer 20+% more profit due to the Dollar decline; great news for Stock Prices. Bad news when the US Dollar rises; the same formula works negatively in reverse. Look for earnings to decline; stocks are correlated to earnings. Need I mention Bonds? Higher rates will decimate Bond values as well as higher rates will cause many more defaults across the Globe, again affecting the value of Fixed Income. Commodities will also be negatively affected by a spiking US Dollar as it will take fewer Dollars to purchase in local Currency as well as higher rates will certainly curb demand.

What to do? Everything cycles! Raise cash to purchase assets at lower US pricing. Research is indicating it will probably be a Spike; vicious, but not exceedingly long term. This will present HUGE opportunities for those prepared. Every Investor has personal goals. Review your portfolio and make the proper adjustments.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com

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Money Troubles Breed Very Bad Judgment…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on December 26, 2017 by paulthepoke

1 Timothy 6:10 For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil, for which some have strayed from the faith in their greediness, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.

My Grandfather lived on a Farm in Minnesota. He grew his own vegetables and a raised a few chickens. He had a very limited Income, but had all of the money he needed. My Grandfather owned his Farm, did not have a credit card, nor a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit), nor a Margin Account; he was an extremely Happy Man!

moneytroubles

Do you find that you can’t sleep at night? Are you always on edge? Arguing with your spouse and yelling at the kids? Are you drinking more than you should, but need the alcohol to “take the edge off”. Financial stress is generally the root cause of Marital Discord, Child Abuse, Alcoholism, Drug Abuse, and Workplace Strife and Violence. Debt is the cause; the opium pervasive in our society. Credit can be a very useful tool to enhance and build Wealth; it can also destroy Families.

Debt is insidious and pervasive; there is enormous temptation to indulge today and book that lavish vacation or lease that expensive car to feel important and look successful. After all, you only pay and pay and pay for months or years. You can have all these things and more; just allow your work, your ingenuity, and your sacrifice to benefit you not the Bank! Get out of DEBT! Then use the money that is NOT going to the Banks for your Future! The Banks will Hate that!

Set a goal of Debt Freedom. Once started, the savings start to build quickly. Start by cutting expenses: clean your own house, eat meals at home with the family, rent DVD’s or online entertainment like Netflix or Amazon Prime to reduce the Cable bill, cut your own grass, clean your own car, downgrade your car to a good clean economy car like a Toyota Camry or Honda Accord rather than a Mercedes or BMW. Reduce or eliminate every expense and use the savings to start to pay down credit cards, student loans, HELOCs, and any personal debt. Review Investment debt and refinance for better terms. Sacrifice for just a few short years and the debt will go away. Once the Debt is gone, keep up the habits and start to build reserves; this was also known to the Ancients as “SAVINGS”!

Do not reward yourself with a renewed indulgence in Debt! You can reward yourself with Investments for your future. Investments that will PAY you; a big change from Debt! Accumulating cash flowing assets will become easier as they add to your Wealth. After you have been disciplined in your Financial Habits, you will recognize the moment you have earned the right to indulge, the right to upgrade to First Class or the Penthouse. At that moment, you will realize, you have all the money you need and you will sleep very well at night! If you are lucky, you might even be Happy!

 

 

Homelessness is Rising in America…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , on December 14, 2017 by paulthepoke

Matthew 25:34-40 Then the King will say to those on His right hand, ‘Come, you blessed of My Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world: for I was hungry and you gave Me food; I was thirsty and you gave Me drink; I was a stranger and you took Me in; I was naked and you clothed Me; I was sick and you visited Me; I was in prison and you came to Me.’ “Then the righteous will answer Him, saying, ‘Lord, when did we see You hungry and feed You, or thirsty and give You drink? When did we see You a stranger and take You in, or naked and clothe You? Or when did we see You sick, or in prison, and come to You?’ And the King will answer and say to them, ‘Assuredly, I say to you, inasmuch as you did it to one of the least of these My brethren, you did it to Me.’ 

Michael

Homelessness is rising in America. It is going to be worse; much worse. Over 400 “Tent Camps’ have sprung up in the Seattle Area, people are sleeping along walkways, under overpasses, and throughout urban parks; anywhere that might offer a degree of shelter and safety. Over 168,000 people are estimated to be Homeless along the West Coast. In September 2016, almost 58,000 New Yorkers slept in the 5 Burroughs shelters just one cold night. Over 50% of Public School Children qualify for the School Lunch program providing Breakfast and Lunch; often, the only food the children will receive for the day. Indeed, 47% of Americans report feeding their family is a daily concern. Over 1.5 Million American families supplement their diets with visits to the local Food Banks which are already feeling the pressure. These Americans did not start out Life dreaming of Homelessness as a Life Goal. They did not Prepare, they did not Plan.  How many Americans are 1 or 2 paychecks away from living under the Bridge?

The data and charts show that huge numbers of Americans are living well beyond their means. As the availability of Credit at low teaser rates has been expanded, many, many families have indulged in artificially raising their Living Standard by going into debt to supplement their Income; going into massive debt to buy unnecessary things and keep up appearances.

Obviously the counter trend of massive personal debt is an extremely low Savings Rate. Once the Credit Lines have been maximized, misery sets in as years of paying for past indulgences lies ahead. Credit Cards, Auto Loans, School Loans, and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) doom the debtor. Surveys reveal 46% of Americans cannot even afford $400 in Cash for an Emergency. When all of the Reserves are gone, any calamity jeopardizes the Family.

The Economy has not yet turned down, but some forecasts are indicating it may soon. There may still be time to build reserves, pay off debt, and cut expenses. Should a Recession arrive, and it is inevitable that it will, Income and Revenues will be endangered. Survival will be paramount; survival for those with Capital will build Fortunes. Those that have purchased Income Producing Assets will benefit from the climatic changing Economic Environment and have built their “Lifeboat” will fair much better than those that are over-leveraged and debt laddened,

Economic Turmoil is coming, it is not IF, but WHEN. The Cycles of Real Estate and Commodities will supplant the Aging Cycles of both Stocks and Bonds. Those that take heed and Prepare their Finances will weather the Economic Storm, Protect their family, and have the Opportunity to build Generational Wealth in just a few short years. Those that do not heed or prefer to do nothing, will SUFFER. Perhaps the last of the credit line should be used for Camping Equipment!

 

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch & Bible Study

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