Archive for interest rates

Global Economics and Market (P)Review, June 2020… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on June 10, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Business cycles come and go. What goes up must come down. What goes down eventually comes up again. Where are we in the cycle? Major market forces are coming together and they will impact our future and world. Understand the times we are witnessing.

Michael Douville breaks down the global economy and how trends in the dollar and interest rates will affect consumers. We live in historic and interesting economic times. Opportunity is around the corner.

Michael has talked with Dr. Charles Nenner regarding the real estate market, his timing model and charts. Mortgage rates are discussed. How low will interest rates go? Is it time to buy a new home or refinance an existing mortgage? Where will the housing market be in the next 18-24 months?

Michael discusses the impact of the dollar relative to commodity prices. Is the dollar starting to top out? What happens if the dollar loses its value? Commodities and goods are going higher in price.

Countries around the world are broke and cannot pay their bills in dollar denominated debt. What happens if the dollar gets stronger? Debt gets more expensive. Over 100 nations have reached out to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial help.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

Created in 1945, the IMF is governed by and accountable to the 189 countries that make up its near-global membership. The IMF is a part of the United Nations (UN) system. https://www.imf.org/en/About

Make decisions now. Prepare and plan. Navigate through current and future economic trends.

Be ready. The explosive phase is coming!!!

Check out Michael’s comprehensive review and current standing of global markets, interest rates, currencies and more on the YouTube link below…

Michael Douville is an author and syndicated columnist.

Low Yield World… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , on June 1, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:19 Wisdom makes the wise man stronger than ten rulers in a city.

Proverbs 21:22 A wise man scales the city of the mighty and brings down the stronghold in which they trust.

We are living in a low interest yield world. Interest rates around the globe are near and below zero percent in some cases. Where does one place and protect his or her resources? Check out Michael Douville’s latest comments and listen how to grow your investment in this economic environment.

As always, consult your financial adviser.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ApX6XkMSFTUVFXWKAg5WIFrkPeifq9nM/view

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Economic Webinar: Michael Douville, Charles Nenner, Walter Zimmerman, and Dave Ellefson, April 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 6, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Ecclesiastes 7:19 Wisdom makes the wise man stronger than ten rulers in a city.

Last week Michael Douville hosted an economic webinar discussing the current status of the global economy. The webinar lasts about one hour and is worth every second. Some of the world’s leading economic and market minds are included. For free Wall St. quality content, click on the link below.

https://www.amazon.com/Create-Estate-Machine-Retire-Income/dp/0996738517/

https://michaeldouville.com/

westusa.com

The real estate market and the 18 year property cycle were reviewed. Housing market analysis was provided.

Dr. Charles Nenner, one of the world’s leading cyclical economist and researcher, provided his latest information regarding the United States stock market. Nenner also mentioned his thoughts on the bond market. He believes corporate debt is junk and corporate interest rates are going higher. Nenner states the safer play is United States Treasury rates going down.

Michael Douville talks about the ramifications of a strong US dollar. Walter Zimmerman’s recent currency research is a point of emphasis.

http://ellefsonyouthmusicfoundation.org/

Megadeth’s bassist Dave Ellefson checks in and discusses real estate investment and execution. Ellefson is promoting free music lessons and his charitable website.

http://ellefsonyouthmusicfoundation.org/schoolsout/

We are proud to announce the #SCHOOLSOUT initiative, to give remote one-on-one mentoring sessions and music lessons via SKYPE, with legendary Rock and Metal artists, to students displaced from school activities by COVID 19 Restrictions.

Your instructors will be: David Ellefson (Megadeth), Dirk Verbeuren (Megadeth), Jimmy Degrasso (Ex-Megadeth, Alice Cooper), Ron “Bumblefoot” Thal (Sons of Apollo, Ex-Guns N’ Roses), Chris Kael (Five Finger Death Punch), Chad Szeliga (Black Star Riders, Walking with Lions), Chris Poland (Ex-Megadeth), Phil Demmel (Ex-Machine Head), and more to be announced.

Q&A section is provided at the end of the presentation.

How will this impact Investment Strategies? What are the implications for Foreign Investors? Where is a good place to invest? Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Silver, Real Estate (Good chart from Charles Nenner) What is the implication for interest rates. Will property continue to appreciate? Will rents continue to increase. Will net immigration continue? Is this a good time to sell? Is this a good time to buy? With Special Guest: Dave Ellefson

Free Money!!! March 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Pestilence, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on March 15, 2020 by paulthepoke

Revelation 6:5-6 When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a black horse! And its rider had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine!”

Jesus has opened the scroll and initiated judgment with a series of seals, trumpets, and bowls. With the opening of the third seal, John speaks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage for food. About 2,000 years ago, a denarius was a day’s wage for labor. We are living in and witnessing historical times and events. However, we are not witnessing the third seal of Revelation.

photo: Business Insider

In an unprecedented move, the United States Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to ZERO! A new round of quantitative easing will be initiated worth $700 billion in treasuries and mortgage backed securities.

Emergency lending for banks has been reduced to .25%. Repayment has been extended to 90 days.

Requirement ratios for banks has been reduced to ZERO.

Here is the statement from the Federal Reserve.

“The coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States.”

“…is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

Here is the latest statistical data from around the globe.

  • 169,000+ infected globally
  • 6,500+ deaths
  • Spain is on lock down.
  • France is on lock down.
  • Germany is reported to close its borders on Monday.
  • Nike and Apple have essentially closed all stores globally.
  • United States has 3,600+ cases
  • States are closing public schools.
  • Hoboken, NJ has issued a 10:00 p.m. curfew.
  • Universities are moving to on line instruction and closing campi.
  • College and professional sporting competition has been suspended.

Many critics state there is much hyperbole and over reaction with the media reporting and government response to the coronavirus COVID 19. I would encourage those critics to look at Italy. Cases are now over 24,000 and the death toll is increasing. Physicians are now making decisions on who gets care and who does not. Hospitals and health care providers cannot meet demands. The number of cases has doubled in the last four days.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807

https://www.propublica.org/article/this-coronavirus-is-unlike-anything-in-our-lifetime-and-we-have-to-stop-comparing-it-to-the-flu

We do not want videos of overwhelmed hospitals and health care workers making decisions in the parking lot on who gets care and who does not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

~

Revelation 6:7-8 When he opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature say, “Come!” And I looked, and behold, a pale horse! And its rider’s name was Death, and Hades followed him. And they were given authority over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by wild beasts of the earth.

One quarter of the earth will be affected by death with the fourth seal! 1/4 of 7.8 billion is 1.95 billion!

Please understand. What we are watching and living is a human tragedy. I do not want to minimize this. But, this is nothing of the scope and scale of what is to come. We are not in the Revelation seals. There is time now.

2 Peter 3:9 The Lord is not slow to fulfill his promise as some count slowness, but is patient toward you, not wishing that any should perish, but that all should reach repentance.

1 John 2:2 He is the propitiation for our sins, and not for ours only but also for the sins of the whole world.

Dr. Charles Nenner Housing Update, Wall Street Blood Bath, March 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on March 9, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

One of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner has recently release his charts on the housing industry. Please keep in mind, this information was released before the onset of COVID 19, the coronavirus. This was also released before the Saudis and the Russians engaged in a price war in the oil markets.

Charles Nenner a World Class Market Researcher has sent me his chart of Lennar which he uses as a proxy for the US Housing Market. The chart shows a slowing until late in 2020. However, as a separate asset class this may be a great investment to earn excellent cash flow from a conservative investment.

Click on the link below for Nenner’s thoughts.

 

No one knows how badly the Coronavirus will affect the Global Economy or the Individual Family. However, the world is connected. Be prudent, take precautionary actions such as extra food, medicine, fever reducers, water, and additional cash at home. Discuss Financial exposure with your Advisor, review the asset classes.

Michael shared his thoughts a couple of weeks ago regarding the financial and economic impact of the coronavirus. These comments are more timely than ever. Click on the link below for Michael’s insights.

 

Today was a certified train wreck in the financial markets. Russia and Saudi Arabia have engaged in a war over the price of oil. The result was a crash in the price of oil. The price for a barrel of oil dropped 24% in a day. West Texas Crude settled at $31.13 per barrel.

The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were all off by over 7% today. Circuit breakers kicked in less than 5 minutes into trading and the markets were stopped for 15 minutes.

The 10 year treasury note closed below .5% or 50 basis points. The 30 year noted was below 1.0%

COVID 19 continues to grow across the globe. Italy has officially quarantined the population of the entire country.

  • 113,000+ infected globally
  • 4,000+ deaths globally
  • Italy approaching 10,000 cases
  • 112 countries and regions affected
  • 605 cases in the United States

 

Interest Rates Below 2%???

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on October 2, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Can mortgage rates fall below 2%? Yes they can. Listen to Michael’s comments on interest rates and global currency considerations.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Proverbs 20:10 Unequal weights and unequal measures are both alike an abomination to the LORD.

Countries around the world are trying to manipulate their currencies. The US Dollar is getting stronger. What are the implications in today’s global economy? Michael shares his thoughts in his latest video below.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

International Economic Update with Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on August 20, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Time to wake up! Pay attention! International markets are changing quickly!

In a few days Argentina’s stocks and bonds took a nose dive. In one session, Argentina’s stock market dropped 48%! Could this be the start of dark times? Click the link below for Michael’s update.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Michael has been warning people for almost 3 years of a shift in Market Fundamentals. It is finally here. Michael is available to speak on your program or help in any way. He can be reached at 480-948-5554 or michael@michaeldouville.com

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

International Jenga… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , on August 8, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Michael has been on the slowing global economic decline for the last year. It appears a domino is about to topple. Are you prepared?

Who will be the one that drops the stack? Will International economic turmoil result in US recession?

http:// http://www.michaeldouville.com

~

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Dr. Charles Nenner’s Thoughts June 2019 – An Interview with Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on June 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Dr Nenner is not only brilliant, but gracious spending almost an hour of his time discussing current conditions in the Financial World.  As one of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner shared his most recent research and discussed the Cycles of Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and the safer harbor for Income Investors, Real Estate.

Dr. Charles Nenner

As Dr. Nenner repeatedly states all things change. Good times end, Bad times end and everything cycles from Seasons to Interest Rates. Nenner Research indicates the Globe may be about to experience a profound change of Cycle. Soon, the US Business Cycle will be setting a record for expansion surpassing the 120 months of growth experienced in the 1990’s;  setting a record implies this is unusual, as it normally does not  last this long! The expansion is so old and so long many have forgotten that Business Cycles complete, they change! The Business Cycle transitions from Expansion to Contraction slowly, then all of a sudden. Charles Nenner’s research has predicted the slowdown. It is now no longer a prediction, but fact and the Economy of the World is poised to get worse, much worse. Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!

Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!

Charles Nenner’s Cyclical Research forecasts declining US GDP in 2019 to a year end level of less than 1%;  GDP for 2020 may be contracting to below 0. Currently,  Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Factory Orders are declining in the US.

Auto sales are falling,

Retail has not recovered from one of the worst Christmas Seasons in 20 years and retail store closings and shopping mall closures are at a record pace. 

 My favorite asset class, Real Estate, is in a mid cycle correction and has experienced 14 months in a row of declining Existing Home Sales with prices in some markets notably New York City, Seattle, San Jose actually beginning to deteriorate. 

Dr. Nenner foresees a Stock Market decline accompanying the softening Economy starting in earnest mid to late July. Unfortunately, Dr Nenner’s Research does not indicate a short drop and quick recovery, but a more prolonged period of slow Economic activity. Those in retirement or approaching retirement should take heed;  an extremely conservative approach or an exit strategy might be discussed with their Investment Advisor.  Losses incurred from a Stock portfolio may require a very long time to recover. Many Baby Boomers do not have that time! Avoiding loss should be the goal, not squeezing out the last dollar of profit. Lose 40% or more and the “Golden Years” are not so golden!

For a free trial offer of Charles Nenner’s newsletter, go to www.charlesnenner.com and mention this interview.

In Prior slowdowns, Investors could transfer Wealth into Bonds when the Stock Market plunged. Charles Nenner sees higher rates from July going forward that will eventually lead to significant losses and much higher rates in just a few years. Dr. Nenner also envisions Global Deflation; Deflation is much more difficult to manage than Inflation prolonging the contraction. Deflation often refers to the destruction of Credit and Debt through non-payment or defaults. Obviously, as Risk of Default or possible Debt restructure rises, Investors demand to be compensated for the Risk and Rates rise. This is counter intuitive to a slowing Economy which speaks to the predicament of Extreme Global Debt.  Individual US Treasury Bonds representing the safest investment in the world issued by the Global Reserve Currency will receive unprecedented demand; Capital seeking safety.  Dr Nenner’s Cycles for the 30 year Treasury Indicate demand pushing Treasuries to possible new low yields.  A bifurcated Bond Market?

Bonds and debt without the implicit guarantee of the US may suffer loss of principal in  a World engulfed in Global Deflation and Contagion.

Bond funds and ETF’s  which unlike simple bonds, never mature could incur losses of 70% or more in a rising rate environment. Further,  Deflation may cause huge losses in lower quality Bonds and Debt instruments. Estimates are as high as $2.5 Trillion in Corporate Bonds could already be just one notch above JUNK!  A recession could double that. Downgrades and Defaults will cause massive Bond losses.

Consistent income will help mitigate the turmoil that is coming.  The S&P dividends yield less than 2% and the risk of monumental loss of value dictates avoidance.  Bonds and Debt instruments are facing the potential of devastating losses as well. The current Income provided is not much more with the 10 year Treasury yielding less than 2.2% in an Inverted Yield environment.  Any increase of Interest Rates will devastate a Bond Portfolio. Fortunately, Real Estate provides consistent, conservative, and monthly Income.

Conservative single family residential rentals provided cash flow month after month through the Great Financial Crisis.  As a separate asset class from both Stocks and Bonds, Real Estate barely correlates with Wall Street;  estimates are in the 8-9% range. Real Estate, although cyclical, is also very Regional in Nature. There are several truly great Real Estate markets in the US that are experiencing both Organic growth and Demographic growth causing demand for Housing. Las Vegas and Phoenix are both exploding adding over 100,000 new residents each in 2018;  one cause is the Exodus from California, a Mega Trend that will last for years. This population increase is creating jobs and an enormous demand for rentals. Dr Nenner believes that investing in Small Units and Entry Level Single Family properties will generate Income through the economic downturn and may prove to be a very prudent investment. Investors will receive useable cash flow while waiting for the Real Estate Market recovery which may bottom as soon as 3rdquarter 2020.  Just beyond the current Real Estate correction is the “Explosive Phase” of the Real Estate Cycle where Fortunes are born! Not just Cash Flow, but much higher prices.

Will rising HOME prices coincide with the 30 year Treasury declining to historical low rates? Will the US experience Negative Rates and barely positive mortgages as our European Cousins? Will Risk expose struggling Corporations, Munincipalities, Counties, States, and maybe even Sovereign borrowers to much higher rates based on Credit downgrades? The next few years promise to be very interesting; is that a Chinese curse????

Rental Cash Flow may be one of the few Income Streams that will be monthly, consistent, and actually grow in a downturn; a fiscal Lifeboat! Risk has entered the Market. As a separate asset class, Real Estate may provide a safer asset for your Wealth. Always discuss with your Financial Advisor before Investing. 

Window of Opportunity to Refinance?

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on May 6, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 27:23 Know well the condition of your flocks, and give attention to your herds…

Be vigilant and protect your resources. The economic cycle appears to be winding down. The yield curve on interest rates has inverted. Position yourself now to grow your wealth. There is a window of opportunity to refinance. Michael discusses the next 12-18 months of the business cycle and how to position yourself for an economic slowdown. Michael also has a plan on navigating the business cycle once the slowdown is over. Do you have a plan?

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Put yourself in a financial position to be a lender instead of a borrower.

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Paul the Poke

Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God

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