Archive for interest rates

Interest Rates Below 2%???

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on October 2, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Can mortgage rates fall below 2%? Yes they can. Listen to Michael’s comments on interest rates and global currency considerations.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Proverbs 20:10 Unequal weights and unequal measures are both alike an abomination to the LORD.

Countries around the world are trying to manipulate their currencies. The US Dollar is getting stronger. What are the implications in today’s global economy? Michael shares his thoughts in his latest video below.

http://www.michaeldouville.com
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International Economic Update with Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on August 20, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Time to wake up! Pay attention! International markets are changing quickly!

In a few days Argentina’s stocks and bonds took a nose dive. In one session, Argentina’s stock market dropped 48%! Could this be the start of dark times? Click the link below for Michael’s update.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Michael has been warning people for almost 3 years of a shift in Market Fundamentals. It is finally here. Michael is available to speak on your program or help in any way. He can be reached at 480-948-5554 or michael@michaeldouville.com

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

International Jenga… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , on August 8, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Michael has been on the slowing global economic decline for the last year. It appears a domino is about to topple. Are you prepared?

Who will be the one that drops the stack? Will International economic turmoil result in US recession?

http:// http://www.michaeldouville.com

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http://www.michaeldouville.com

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Dr. Charles Nenner’s Thoughts June 2019 – An Interview with Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on June 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Dr Nenner is not only brilliant, but gracious spending almost an hour of his time discussing current conditions in the Financial World.  As one of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner shared his most recent research and discussed the Cycles of Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and the safer harbor for Income Investors, Real Estate.

Dr. Charles Nenner

As Dr. Nenner repeatedly states all things change. Good times end, Bad times end and everything cycles from Seasons to Interest Rates. Nenner Research indicates the Globe may be about to experience a profound change of Cycle. Soon, the US Business Cycle will be setting a record for expansion surpassing the 120 months of growth experienced in the 1990’s;  setting a record implies this is unusual, as it normally does not  last this long! The expansion is so old and so long many have forgotten that Business Cycles complete, they change! The Business Cycle transitions from Expansion to Contraction slowly, then all of a sudden. Charles Nenner’s research has predicted the slowdown. It is now no longer a prediction, but fact and the Economy of the World is poised to get worse, much worse. Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!

Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!

Charles Nenner’s Cyclical Research forecasts declining US GDP in 2019 to a year end level of less than 1%;  GDP for 2020 may be contracting to below 0. Currently,  Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Factory Orders are declining in the US.

Auto sales are falling,

Retail has not recovered from one of the worst Christmas Seasons in 20 years and retail store closings and shopping mall closures are at a record pace. 

 My favorite asset class, Real Estate, is in a mid cycle correction and has experienced 14 months in a row of declining Existing Home Sales with prices in some markets notably New York City, Seattle, San Jose actually beginning to deteriorate. 

Dr. Nenner foresees a Stock Market decline accompanying the softening Economy starting in earnest mid to late July. Unfortunately, Dr Nenner’s Research does not indicate a short drop and quick recovery, but a more prolonged period of slow Economic activity. Those in retirement or approaching retirement should take heed;  an extremely conservative approach or an exit strategy might be discussed with their Investment Advisor.  Losses incurred from a Stock portfolio may require a very long time to recover. Many Baby Boomers do not have that time! Avoiding loss should be the goal, not squeezing out the last dollar of profit. Lose 40% or more and the “Golden Years” are not so golden!

For a free trial offer of Charles Nenner’s newsletter, go to www.charlesnenner.com and mention this interview.

In Prior slowdowns, Investors could transfer Wealth into Bonds when the Stock Market plunged. Charles Nenner sees higher rates from July going forward that will eventually lead to significant losses and much higher rates in just a few years. Dr. Nenner also envisions Global Deflation; Deflation is much more difficult to manage than Inflation prolonging the contraction. Deflation often refers to the destruction of Credit and Debt through non-payment or defaults. Obviously, as Risk of Default or possible Debt restructure rises, Investors demand to be compensated for the Risk and Rates rise. This is counter intuitive to a slowing Economy which speaks to the predicament of Extreme Global Debt.  Individual US Treasury Bonds representing the safest investment in the world issued by the Global Reserve Currency will receive unprecedented demand; Capital seeking safety.  Dr Nenner’s Cycles for the 30 year Treasury Indicate demand pushing Treasuries to possible new low yields.  A bifurcated Bond Market?

Bonds and debt without the implicit guarantee of the US may suffer loss of principal in  a World engulfed in Global Deflation and Contagion.

Bond funds and ETF’s  which unlike simple bonds, never mature could incur losses of 70% or more in a rising rate environment. Further,  Deflation may cause huge losses in lower quality Bonds and Debt instruments. Estimates are as high as $2.5 Trillion in Corporate Bonds could already be just one notch above JUNK!  A recession could double that. Downgrades and Defaults will cause massive Bond losses.

Consistent income will help mitigate the turmoil that is coming.  The S&P dividends yield less than 2% and the risk of monumental loss of value dictates avoidance.  Bonds and Debt instruments are facing the potential of devastating losses as well. The current Income provided is not much more with the 10 year Treasury yielding less than 2.2% in an Inverted Yield environment.  Any increase of Interest Rates will devastate a Bond Portfolio. Fortunately, Real Estate provides consistent, conservative, and monthly Income.

Conservative single family residential rentals provided cash flow month after month through the Great Financial Crisis.  As a separate asset class from both Stocks and Bonds, Real Estate barely correlates with Wall Street;  estimates are in the 8-9% range. Real Estate, although cyclical, is also very Regional in Nature. There are several truly great Real Estate markets in the US that are experiencing both Organic growth and Demographic growth causing demand for Housing. Las Vegas and Phoenix are both exploding adding over 100,000 new residents each in 2018;  one cause is the Exodus from California, a Mega Trend that will last for years. This population increase is creating jobs and an enormous demand for rentals. Dr Nenner believes that investing in Small Units and Entry Level Single Family properties will generate Income through the economic downturn and may prove to be a very prudent investment. Investors will receive useable cash flow while waiting for the Real Estate Market recovery which may bottom as soon as 3rdquarter 2020.  Just beyond the current Real Estate correction is the “Explosive Phase” of the Real Estate Cycle where Fortunes are born! Not just Cash Flow, but much higher prices.

Will rising HOME prices coincide with the 30 year Treasury declining to historical low rates? Will the US experience Negative Rates and barely positive mortgages as our European Cousins? Will Risk expose struggling Corporations, Munincipalities, Counties, States, and maybe even Sovereign borrowers to much higher rates based on Credit downgrades? The next few years promise to be very interesting; is that a Chinese curse????

Rental Cash Flow may be one of the few Income Streams that will be monthly, consistent, and actually grow in a downturn; a fiscal Lifeboat! Risk has entered the Market. As a separate asset class, Real Estate may provide a safer asset for your Wealth. Always discuss with your Financial Advisor before Investing. 

Window of Opportunity to Refinance?

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , on May 6, 2019 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 27:23 Know well the condition of your flocks, and give attention to your herds…

Be vigilant and protect your resources. The economic cycle appears to be winding down. The yield curve on interest rates has inverted. Position yourself now to grow your wealth. There is a window of opportunity to refinance. Michael discusses the next 12-18 months of the business cycle and how to position yourself for an economic slowdown. Michael also has a plan on navigating the business cycle once the slowdown is over. Do you have a plan?

http://www.michaeldouville.com

Put yourself in a financial position to be a lender instead of a borrower.

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Is Turkey the “Catalyst” that Breaks the World?

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Ezekiel 38-39, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on April 1, 2019 by paulthepoke

Isaiah 47:11 But evil shall come upon you, which you will not know how to charm away; disaster shall fall upon you, for which you will not be able to atone; and ruin shall come upon you suddenly, of which you know nothing.

Pay Attention!!!

By Michael Douville – I have forecast the Global Slowdown and now that fact has been recognized by virtually everyone. The Globe is slowing so quickly that the World may be entering a period of vulnerability to a sudden downdraft.

To paraphrase the famous question of “how does this happen?”: slowly, then all of a sudden! The economy has been dragged to the edge of a cliff; something just needs to push it over!

https://michaeldouville.com/

The last decade of repressed interest rates has encouraged a Global Debt Binge!

Italy is in Recession, The Netherlands is also. Germany is teetering avoiding a the statistical recession as the 3rdQuarter GDP was -0.2% but the 4thQuarter managed to rise to 0.0%. Revisions later may change the statistics.

The 1stQuarter of 2019 is looking dismal as Global demand for Autos declined and mighty BMW announced it will not make earnings projections. The stock dropped over 6%.  Lower earnings = lower stock prices!

More bad news for Germany as several Economic Indices are severely declining and the European Industrial powerhouse may be heading into further trouble. As Germany’s trading partners suffer, so suffers Germany as the German Economy is certainly Export driven. 

European Interest Rates have been driven into negative returns forcing European Banks to search for better yields in Sovereign and Corporate Debt. Many Spanish, Italian, and German Banks have still not recovered from the Great Financial Crisis and are “woefully unprepared” for the next financial crisis and the currency union is not resilient enough to emerge unscathed from unexpected economic storms” as reported by Christine Legarde.

Which brings us to Turkey! The last decade of repressed interest rates has encouraged a Global Debt Binge! Not only has business and private borrowers indulged beyond their capacity, but Nations across the World have found that it was very easy and expedient to borrow their way to Prosperity!

Turkey is in trouble! The Turkish Economy has officially entered a Recession. Inflation has been unleashed on the population driving prices of everyday goods beyond reach. The Turkish national currency the Lira has lost tremendous value as the Foreign Exchange rate, although improved from the near 7 Lira to the US Dollar, is still vastly devalued at 5.75 Lira to the US Dollar. To make matters worse, the US Dollar is cycling higher. Portending Turmoil!

Debt denominated in US Dollars is now coming due; Billions and Billions of US Dollars are coming due all while the Lira sinks and the Nation of Turkey is gripped by a Recession. Much of this debt is owed to the Banks of Spain, Italy, and Germany;  Banks that are “ill prepared” for Loss!! Banks that are “Systemically Important”!

Could Corporations in Turkey, struggling with Debt Repayment default on their loans? For that matter, could Turkey default on it’s Sovereign Debt? A Turkish default could lead to losses in Systemically Important Banks; losses now, while Europe struggles, would be felt everywhere!!! 

As I have recommended before, build reserves, pay down debt, cut expenses, review vulnerabilities both personal and Business, and discuss with your advisers as to what is Prudent in your Investment Portfolio. If contagion ignites, financing will be restricted; check with your lenders and review loans for refinance and Lines of Credit. Preserve Capital for the huge Opportunities that will surely present themselves. Review rental agreements and maximize tenant quality rather than maximize revenue. Rental cash flows may be the “Life Boat” to sustain the quality of life jeopardized by a Global Recession.

https://michaeldouville.com/

For more detail linking modern day Turkey to ancient Meshech, Tubal, Gomer, and Beth Togarmah, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

The Catalyst for A Global Default

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , on November 26, 2018 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

world under water

https://michaeldouville.com/

Spend, Spend, and Spend some more; we borrowed some and we can borrow more!  Since the Great Financial Crisis, virtually every Nation, State, County,  Province, Region, City, Town, Village, and two buildings near each other on the same road have gorged on Borrowed Money.  The Central Banks of the World opened the Debt Spigot and flooded the Globe with Liquidity.  It is oh so much fun when the spending is free. Everyone loves a “Big Spender”! Now the Credit Splurge is over and reality is setting in.  Much of the Debt was squandered by bureaucrats that had no economic sense; spending on projects for local constituents that benefited political support groups to consolidate and retain power. Sometimes just outright Fraud and Graft.  Some Debt was used to build Schools, Roads,  and power Infrastructure, but too much was misspent and mal-invested by the totally incompetent but politically connected technocrats in the Corporate and Government worlds.

Larger than all the stock markets of the World, the Debt Implosion will cause massive Disruptions and Turmoil.  Those that prepare will have enormous opportunities as assets are sold at discounted prices to satisfy loans.

Those middle managers that 10 years ago were still in School and have never experienced any Business Environment other than an expanding Credit Bubble will be bewildered as a Global Slowdown unfolds. No one told them that Loans will come due and need to be paid. No one told them Interest Rates can rise and rise quickly, No one told them that Debt cannot always be “Rolled Over’!  No one told them Business Cycles end! No one told them, therefore, it is not their FAULT!

Politicians and Corporate insiders will not accept the blame as the Debt Time Bombs start to threaten.  The Budgets that are trimmed and the Programs that are reduced or curtailed will become someone else’s fault particularly as Civil unrest starts, as local housing, medical, or food benefits are reduced or worse yet, eliminated! It will be someone else’s fault; either a Foreign enemy or a domestic Ethnic or Religious group will be blamed for mishandling the Economy.  Border skirmishes or outright conflict may result as Governments look to deflect and distract. Enemies do not deserve to be repaid!

Goldman Sachs has been embroiled in Corruption across the World and has been accused of creating complicated Financing for Nations such as Malaysia and Greece that provided funds to desperate politicians at very expensive prices,  good for the immediate term, but not so good when the Debt needs to be repaid.  Abu Dhabi filed suit in New York November 21, 2018 accusing Goldman Sachs of Bribery and Money Laundering.  Sovereign and Corporate Debt is at Risk of Default from Rising Interest Rates and Market Forces; now Sovereign and Corporate Debt is at Risk of Default due to alleged Fraudulent practices. Obviously, if the Money was Fraudulently lent, no one would expect to be paid back, would they?

The Bond Market will experience huge defaults and Global Deflation as Trillions of dollars come due; the Debt is not sustainable. Larger than all the stock markets of the World, the Debt Implosion will cause massive Disruptions and Turmoil.  Those that prepare will have enormous opportunities as assets are sold at discounted prices to satisfy loans. Essential Cash Flow from Bonds can be replaced often by even larger Income Streams from conservative Rental Real Estate in the great growth markets of the US with much less Risk. A discussion with a Financial Adviser may be Timely and Prudent.

https://michaeldouville.com/

 

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