Archive for equities

Prices Rising in Turkey, Trouble Ahead

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on October 8, 2018 by paulthepoke

The Turmoil will not start in the United States, but it will reach our shores.  The warnings are moving from inevitable Global Turmoil to Imminent Global Turmoil!

Michael’s website

The Catalyst will not start in the Equity Markets, but in the Credit and Debt Markets of the World. The Debt Markets dwarf the Equity Markets by a factor of at least 20; the Credit Market is enormous!!  Although the Turmoil will not start in the US, the US Dollar will be the cause! In an effort to Save the World, the Central Bankers reduced rates to zero or below and encouraged borrowing; encouraged squander and massive, pervasive Debt! Global rates have risen from 0.1% to over 3.0% in the US. A thirty fold increase! Thirty times more interest; thirty times more tax money to service the debt. To make matters worse, a gamble was taken; betting the US Dollar would indefinitely decline in value and Debt could be rolled over in cheaper and cheaper Dollars. Historical Cycles were ignored; the Day of Reckoning is coming as the Dollar has reversed and is now getting stronger and stronger. The equation of local currency vs the US Dollar is tipping. Not only is the payment rate trending higher, more local currency is needed to buy a US Dollar; a lot more!

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Not only Debt repayment will cause Turmoil, but Imports are typically expressed in International measures which is typically the US Dollar. Energy costs will skyrocket in Argentina and Turkey as their respective currencies decline vis-a-vis the US Dollar.  Oil and refined petroleum Products will become very expensive and cause hardship on the local populations. Medicine, machine parts, electronics, replacement parts will all become expensive demanding more and more of free cash flow and eventually a breaking point!

Obviously, as more and more Capital is diverted to servicing Debt and rising costs, the Economy will suffer. It will become a Negative Feed Loop Spiral! Eventually, Debt will be Defaulted affecting the Pension Funds, Hedge Funds, Banks, Mutual Funds, Annuities, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and even small family reserves. Collateral Damage will be a Contagion as Peter can no longer pay Paul who then cannot pay Mark!

Bonds will face not only Market Risk as Interest Rates rise causing a relentless decline in value, but also Credit Risk as Defaults rise and credit Quality lowers.  It is time to review holdings. It is time to re-allocate. The US Dollar cycles; it will trend lower again. Things and Real Assets will rise substantially in the US like they are now in Turkey and India. Real Things should be accumulated now while our Dollar is high. Commodities such as copper, aluminum, steel, asphalt, agriculture, farms, lumber, and residential rentals can be slowly bought. Cash flowing rentals contain these basic materials and will not only protect their value in the future, but protect the owner with an alternative cash stream when Turmoil reaches our shores.

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Time to Preserve your Wealth…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on December 7, 2017 by paulthepoke

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Ecclesiastes 3:12 I perceived that there is nothing better for them than to be joyful and to do good as long as they live…

“Timing; it is all about Timing!” “ Know when to get off!” “There are times to be aggressive and times to be cautious!” “It is not what you make, but what you keep that Counts” “Trees do not grow to the sky!”

These adages are especially true today regarding the Historic levels of both the Stock and Bond Markets. These sayings mimic real life experience and explain that Life is a series of Cycles that ebb and flow throughout History. It is Wisdom that allows one the courage to ACT! Courage will be needed to recognize danger and courage will be needed to Preserve your Wealth for the Future!

Stock Market Cycles have characteristics of a Wave Pattern that peaks about every 7 years; examples of the latest bubbles are March 2000, then December 2007 (7.5 years), and now almost 10 years from the last Stock Market Peak; courtesy of the World’s Central Banks. The final push to the top often is exaggerated with huge gains associated with the Peaking Process.; a vertical price appreciation spike often develops near the cycle end, adding to the Mania. The Mantra of “This Time is Different” is almost universal in the topping process as no one wants to believe the “Good Times” are ending. The Federal Reserve has announced it will no longer support the markets; rather, the Fed is withdrawing liquidity at a scheduled rate of $510 Billion for 2018. The “Good Times” are over! The Central Banks of the World have also declared their intention to bring Central Bank purchases to a screeching halt from $2 Trillion to ZERO by April of 2018. Beware, the Party IS OVER!! “What goes up, must come down.

If the Cycle has been artificially stretched by Central Bank intervention and the Banks have declared their intentions to end this intervention in BOTH the Stock and Bond Markets, it is time to “Jump Ship”. One does not need to be fully invested at all times. Numerous Private and Institutional Clients have already begun to take profits. Perhaps removing the original investment from any Risk or “Harm’s Way” would be prudent; parking the proceeds in Cash. Preserving Wealth will allow one to participate in different Investment Cycles such as the Commodity Cycle that appears to be in the bottoming process. Much of the Price Risk has been “Drained” from that Asset class as the demand for Raw Materials has “fallen off a cliff” and is beginning to show some signs of improvement. The Commodity Cycle, once it starts to rise, often completes in 7.5 years; plenty of time to season more true Wealth. Consider this, the Housing Cycle is a much longer cycle of 18.5 years that should Peak and Possibly Spike in the 2023/24 time frame. Investing in Housing now will allow participation in the Commodity Cycle as well as the Real Estate Cycle. Raw Materials are necessary for Construction, as they inflate, housing will follow; thus benefiting from two powerful trends.

https://michaeldouville.com/time-preserve-wealth/

 

 

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch & Bible Study

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