Archive for Turkey

Prices Rising in Turkey, Trouble Ahead

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on October 8, 2018 by paulthepoke

The Turmoil will not start in the United States, but it will reach our shores.  The warnings are moving from inevitable Global Turmoil to Imminent Global Turmoil!

Michael’s website

The Catalyst will not start in the Equity Markets, but in the Credit and Debt Markets of the World. The Debt Markets dwarf the Equity Markets by a factor of at least 20; the Credit Market is enormous!!  Although the Turmoil will not start in the US, the US Dollar will be the cause! In an effort to Save the World, the Central Bankers reduced rates to zero or below and encouraged borrowing; encouraged squander and massive, pervasive Debt! Global rates have risen from 0.1% to over 3.0% in the US. A thirty fold increase! Thirty times more interest; thirty times more tax money to service the debt. To make matters worse, a gamble was taken; betting the US Dollar would indefinitely decline in value and Debt could be rolled over in cheaper and cheaper Dollars. Historical Cycles were ignored; the Day of Reckoning is coming as the Dollar has reversed and is now getting stronger and stronger. The equation of local currency vs the US Dollar is tipping. Not only is the payment rate trending higher, more local currency is needed to buy a US Dollar; a lot more!

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Not only Debt repayment will cause Turmoil, but Imports are typically expressed in International measures which is typically the US Dollar. Energy costs will skyrocket in Argentina and Turkey as their respective currencies decline vis-a-vis the US Dollar.  Oil and refined petroleum Products will become very expensive and cause hardship on the local populations. Medicine, machine parts, electronics, replacement parts will all become expensive demanding more and more of free cash flow and eventually a breaking point!

Obviously, as more and more Capital is diverted to servicing Debt and rising costs, the Economy will suffer. It will become a Negative Feed Loop Spiral! Eventually, Debt will be Defaulted affecting the Pension Funds, Hedge Funds, Banks, Mutual Funds, Annuities, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and even small family reserves. Collateral Damage will be a Contagion as Peter can no longer pay Paul who then cannot pay Mark!

Bonds will face not only Market Risk as Interest Rates rise causing a relentless decline in value, but also Credit Risk as Defaults rise and credit Quality lowers.  It is time to review holdings. It is time to re-allocate. The US Dollar cycles; it will trend lower again. Things and Real Assets will rise substantially in the US like they are now in Turkey and India. Real Things should be accumulated now while our Dollar is high. Commodities such as copper, aluminum, steel, asphalt, agriculture, farms, lumber, and residential rentals can be slowly bought. Cash flowing rentals contain these basic materials and will not only protect their value in the future, but protect the owner with an alternative cash stream when Turmoil reaches our shores.

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Turkey is selling Gold!

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on September 24, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Gomer, and Tubal) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

For more evidence pointing to modern day Turkey, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

 

https://michaeldouville.com/store/

Economic data provided by Wall Street Geek syndicated columnist Michael Douville.

Turkey loves Gold! Gold is revered as true Wealth; portable and exchangeable worldwide. Turkey is one of the top Sovereign holders of Gold and the Turkish people consume massive amounts in jewelry and bullion. Turkey is selling Gold; over $6 billion US Dollars worth since June of 2018. Reports of up to 20% of Turkish holdings have been liquidated. Turkey loves Gold; there has to be compelling reasons to sell!

Turkey is in Trouble; big Trouble. The Turkish Lira is continuing it’s decline against the Euro and most notably the US Dollar losing over 40% of purchasing power year to date. The 10 year Turkish bond has climbed to unsustainable levels of over 21% and the Bank Rate has been increased to 24%+.  The Debt binge that has fueled Prosperity for the last decade is coming to an end; the Credit Line is exhausted! The Day of Reckoning when lenders will no longer extend a financial lifeline and want their money back is upon them. When the obvious loss of confidence in the Government’s credibility becomes apparent, Capital Flees! Not just Foreign Capital, but Domestic as well seeking safer assets. Selling Gold is inevitable and an International Black Swan.

Uncertainty dictates caution. The US will be the Haven of Last Resort; US Assets may still rise as others fall. Capital will search for safety.

Regardless what it is called, when a country can no longer service it’s debt, a Contagion ripples across the Globe. Turkey is connected to the European Banks; particularly fragile are those in Spain and Italy which have very little reserves to handle a default. The Fractional Reserve System on which modern Banking is based is intertwined with the International Monetary System and can destabilize the Banking System as Liquidity from defaults disappears. Turkey has a liquidity problem itself and selling Gold will temporarily ease the problem.  Servicing an unsustainable debt load by some reports of up to $330 Billion US Dollars with a currency that is daily losing value. A Herculean task.

Military forays into Iraq and now occupation of areas in North Syria are hugely expensive, not only in the loss of life and the loss of equipment, but the logistics to support the military campaigns; Turkey obviously has a finite capability. Who will provide the fuel, the food, the ammunition? Russia may be funding the incursions to benefit it’s Syrian ally. Russian capability is also limited.

Uncertainty dictates caution. The US will be the Haven of Last Resort; US Assets may still rise as others fall. Capital will search for safety. Prudence also dictates caution.  Review asset allocations; pay particular attention to Sovereign Debt Funds and Emerging Markets. Review vulnerabilities, review risk parameters in any new ventures, review debt and reduce negative cash flow,  build reserves and personal items such as extra food, water, medicine, and cash. Intrinsically, Real Assets may become more valuable than Financial Assets. Businesses may be vulnerable as commerce slows; first overseas then to Mainland US. Basic rentals (B- or C) with little or no frills should continue to provide an alternate source of consistent positive cash flow that will be hugely valuable during any International or Domestic Economic slowdown.

https://michaeldouville.com/store/

 

Russia: An Emerging Market

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 17, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

For evidence pointing to modern day Russia, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/04/ezekiel-38-who-is-magog/

Modern day, 21st century Russians refer to themselves as the ancient Scythians or Magogians. See the link below.

https://paulthepoke.com/2017/08/23/trend-update-putin-netanyahu-meet-in-sochi-russia-august-2017/

https://michaeldouville.com

Russia has an impressive military with Nuclear Weapons, but when it comes to Economic prowess, it is an Emerging Market! It has been only 20 years since Russia collapsed financially and it is still working through the economic disruption. Although blessed with huge Natural Resources, Russia is still very dependent on Foreign Capital to develop it’s mining,  gas and oil fields.  Foreign Capital is needed not only for developing the resources themselves, but the infrastructure to bring them to market.  Global Markets dictate much of Russia’s income as the price of basic materials fluctuate with the Business Cycle. As one of the World’s leading oil producers, Russia has benefited from the recent run up in Oil prices which are expressed in US Dollars. Basic Materials are also expressed in US Dollars, but are very sensitive to demand dynamics; much, much more sensitive. Dollar dependency is a two edged sword for although the demand for the energy component is less elastic, the price can fluctuate wildly.  The price of Natural Resources can plummet as the Global Slowdown intensifies; as with any Emerging Market repayment of Foreign Loans becomes more and more difficult.

The BRICs were the darling of the Investment Community. Now Brazil and India are struggling. China financed much of it’s Capital needs with internal financing through it’s Shadow Banking and while these loans are certainly at risk, they are less visible. Russia has done much better than many Emerging Market Nations, but Russia is still affected by a rising US Dollar and rising Global Interest Rates. The balance of Trade impacts the International repayments. A Global Slowdown is underway and many Emerging Markets are at risk of depleting Dollar Reserves and thus entering a Liquidity Crisis. Which leads to Turkey!

Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken.

Turkey, along with Argentina and Brazil, is rapidly running out of Dollar Reserves. Turkey imports much more than it exports and as it’s currency declines, purchasing power falls dramatically.  Turkey needs Cash to not only finance Government offices, public utilities,  and to service domestic needs, but any recent Military adventures such as last year’s excursion into Iraq and just recently Syria. Everything needs to be financed. The Credit lines from Western Nations and the US come with restrictions which the Turkish Government seems to be unwilling to accept. Turkey is now in overtures to Russia and China to provide US Dollars to solve it’s Liquidity demands. Currently, Turkey is involved in operations with Russia in Syria; an operation that benefits both Geo-politically, but is adverse to Turkish Allies objectives.  This becomes a very interesting puzzle!

Russia and China can forestall Turkey’s liquidity crisis for awhile; a few months, maybe a year. However, both are still Emerging Markets themselves and a prolonged Global downturn will inevitably affect any extension of Credit.

A Global Downturn has been evident for months. Demand for natural Resources and eventually Energy will fall, slowly at first then much more rapidly. Commodity prices will fall crushing the Emerging Markets which will cause Turmoil throughout the World. Debts will not be paid and alliances will be stretched if not completely broken. There is still time to prepare; payoff debt, build reserves, store things like food, water, and medicine.  As quickly as possible, build a personal cash reserve held outside of financial institutions and as important, build a Financial Lifeboat of Cash Flowing assets.

https://michaeldouville.com

Remember, the reason for Russia’s future invasion of Israel is economic. Russia will seek to take Israel’s resources.

Ezekiel 38:13 Sheba and Dedan and the merchants of Tarshish and all its leaders will say to you, ‘Have you come to seize spoil? Have you assembled your hosts to carry off plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods, to seize great spoil?’

 

Will Turkey Align with Russia?

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 10, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Gomer, and Tubal) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

For more evidence pointing to modern day Turkey, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

For evidence pointing to modern day Russia, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/04/ezekiel-38-who-is-magog/

Modern day, 21st century Russians refer to themselves as the ancient Scythians or Magogians. See the link below.

https://paulthepoke.com/2017/08/23/trend-update-putin-netanyahu-meet-in-sochi-russia-august-2017/

https://michaeldouville.com

No Presidential Decree from Turkey’s de facto ruler will stop the Lira’s decline against the US Dollar.

Nations are no different than Families; each has a credit line. Using credit to enjoy today is always at the expense of tomorrow; maybe at the expense of a lot of tomorrows.

The US Dollar is cycling higher as uncertainty in Financial Markets starts to spread; just Capital looking for Safety! The easy credit and absurdly low interest rates of the last decade have encouraged gorging on Debt across the Villages, Hamlets, Towns, Cities, and Nations of the World. The Joy of Financed Prosperity is ending and the Day of Judgment is coming as the servicing of the Debt now is impeding Prosperity and the Creditors are looking for re-payment. Emerging Markets rely heavily on Debt to finance schools, airports, roads, water sanitation and all of the infrastructure already in place in modern countries. Further, Emerging Markets rely heavily on Foreign Investments for Capital to build retail, restaurants and housing. When local currencies start to decline against the benchmarks such as the US Dollar, these pools of Capital start to leave causing a liquidity problem for local governments and eventually a loss in confidence which can quickly and adversely affect exchange rates. Capital in Argentina, Brazil, India, Greece, Macedonia, Poland and of course Turkey is fleeing to the Safety of the US Dollar and their currency’s purchasing power is declining. Once started, it is very difficult to stop: even Presidential decrees do not work.

                                  JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index

Nations are no different than Families; each has a credit line. Using credit to enjoy today is always at the expense of tomorrow; maybe at the expense of a lot of tomorrows. Eventually the credit line is completely spent; maybe an extension or two will postpone the inevitable. However, just as Families, nations can only service so much Debt and then something has to change. Families can declare Bankruptcy or allow a Foreclosure. Nations DEFAULT!!

Before a Nation Defaults, plans must be made for the continuation of the Government and essential services. This is done by securing funding from other sources; sources that previously would not even be considered; desperation changes things! Turkey is running out of Credit! Turkey will not accept constraints imposed by the IMF or creditor Banks and has received an emergency $15 Billion from Qatar.  The Debt must be addressed while the Turkish economy and currency is quickly declining creating a very difficult situation.  Overtures to Russia and China for funding will be a game changer. If the future funding requirements can be obtained, Turkey will be able to default on it’s Debt; geopolitics are also economic realities. Capital is fleeing now, time is short.

Prepare for Turmoil, but also prepare for opportunity! Defaults in Emerging Markets would impact Stocks and Bonds across the Globe.  Reduce or eliminate debt, create personal reserves, stockpile needed medicine, store extra food and water, and keep personal cash handy. The Financial Asset Cycle is ending and Real Assets will rise. Natural Resources, Agriculture, Mining and Minerals, Lumber, Copper, Oil, Aluminum, and most if not all of the basic materials should rise as currencies decline. Things should be accumulate; very conservative Real Estate such as rental houses should do well. It is time to prepare, time to change,  time to prepare for the next opportunity.

 

Currently, American economic sanctions and a strong US dollar are crippling the currencies of Russia, Turkey, and Iran. All of these countries are feeling an economic, monetary squeeze. Ultimately, the reason for the invasion of Israel from the north appears to be economic. Israel is a prosperous country.

Ezekiel 38:13 Sheba and Dedan and the merchants of Tarshish and all its leaders will say to you, ‘Have you come to seize spoil? Have you assembled your hosts to carry off plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods, to seize great spoil?’

Is now this time? It is looking like it more and more with each passing day. But, that remains to be seen. Will Turkey Align with Russia? God’s prophet Ezekiel says emphatically “Yes”!

 

Revelation The Last Letter

Posted in Prophecy, Revelation with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on September 8, 2018 by paulthepoke
Now Available on Amazon.com

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1720136084

TheLastLetter_Cover_forWeb

These are the last of words of Jesus before He comes for His bride the Church. Revelation The Last Letter looks at the seven churches in their historical and geographical context in the first century. These were actual churches in actual ancient cities in what is modern day Turkey. What did Jesus actually say to the churches? Please, listen to the good news from Jesus Himself…

 

 

This is a great resource for small group Bible studies. Study questions are provided at the end of each chapter.

 

https://www.amazon.com/Revelation-Last-Letter-Paul-Lehr/dp/1720136084/

 

Turkish Lira Still Falling: Trouble Ahead!

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on September 3, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Gomer, and Tubal) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

For more evidence pointing to modern day Turkey, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

TurkeyTrouble

https://michaeldouville.com

Michael Douville is a syndicated writer for the Wall St. Greek.

Capital is the Life Blood of Business. When Credit is readily available, expansion of existing facilities to increase production becomes possible. With new production, employment expands, a ripple effect and a virtuous spiral starts spreading throughout the Economy. Optimism and Hope prevails as the outlook for the future brightens! Hope and Optimism are being crushed in Turkey!

Monday August 27, 2018, Turkey’s 10 year Bond closed over 21%.  These rates spell doom for the Turkey.

Commercial debt in Turkey is estimated as $330 Billion US Dollars; Us Dollars have become a very precious commodity. The Turkish Lira has been declining for several years, but the US Dollar index DXY seems to have stopped declining and bottomed at 88.5 in February of this year and has been flirting with 97 just 6 months later; a technical target of 103.8 has been suggested by several analysts. The strategy of borrowing in a declining currency and gambling that the decline will hold until time for  repayment has backfired on all of the Emerging Market debtors; Turkey has also lost that bet!  Not only has the Turkish Currency declined, economic conditions have deteriorated swiftly causing a lack of confidence which then results in a Credit Risk Premium for new debt.

The unfortunate reality is Corporate and Sovereign Debt is never retired, just Refinanced; this negative loop has driven rates higher, unsustainably higher.  Monday August 27, 2018, Turkey’s 10 year Bond closed over 21%.  These rates spell doom for the Turkey.

Business will certainly suffer as Credit becomes illusive.  Employment will suffer and Optimism will die. Compounding the loss of credit is the Currency Inflation that will transform any imported Goods or Services such as Oil, electrical and machinery spare parts, medicine, iron and steel plastics, fertilizer, and many industrial components into extremely expensive items; the Turkish Lira has lost 40% this year alone. This currency inflation will affect the populace as the Currency Inflation devastates their buying power. If shoes and jeans, bread and butter, antibiotics and insulin become HYPER EXPENSIVE, expect civil unrest!

 

Turkey has the real possibility of defaulting on it’s debt! Planned, intentional? Probably not! It really does not matter.  Turkey will look for new allies to extend crucial new credit such as Russia and China. New Business allies often become new military allies; overtures to other previously unthinkable Middle East nations such as Iran become thinkable.  Turmoil may be on the Horizon.

Learn the lessons from Turkey! Debt eventually overwhelms everyone and everything! Inflation, even currency inflation, raises the price of real things. Therefore, invest in REAL things, get out of personal debt,  use investment debt judiciously and preferably use a fixed rate. Review your reserves and stockpile things that might become difficult to buy if Turmoil comes to our shores! Maintain and extend cash levels to weather an extended storm!

https://paulthepoke.com/2018/08/13/turkey-sovereign-systemic-trouble/

https://michaeldouville.com

 

Turkey: Sovereign Systemic Trouble?

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 13, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

https://michaeldouville.com

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Gomer, and Tubal) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

For more evidence pointing to modern day Turkey, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

 

The strategically important nation of Turkey is in Trouble; big Trouble!  Turkey has threatened to invade Greece, has threatened Cyprus and oil explorers Exxon Mobil, Eni, and France’s Total for exploring in the Mediterranean; going so far as to threaten to sink oil rigs and Hydrocarbon Survey ships before the US 6thFleet intervened.

Turkey has invaded Syria and attacked the Kurds in Iraq as recently as last June. The Government of Erdogan seems to be searching for an external enemy; a classic diversion from an Economic Decline that may be inevitable.

You do not talk nice enough and do not give us enough respect; you are so mean to us! We may not pay the money we owe you and it’s YOUR fault!

Turkey is in trouble economically as it’s currency, the Turkish Lira, plummets in value causing massive internal inflation as the prices of raw materials, energy, and of course food and gasoline skyrocket.  A plummeting Lira means more than just higher and higher prices for the populace, it means more Lira are needed to pay back International Loans denominated in US Dollars. The Lira dropped almost 20% Friday August 10th; Turkey owes $240 Billion US Dollars.

The decline of the Turkish Lira makes repayment more and more difficult.  The US Dollar exchange reached a high of 6.43 Lira to the dollar; a loss of 40% so far this year.  Loan repayment has jumped 40% in just 8 months!!!! The Turkish Sovereign 10 year bond has hit a record of 20.67% from 11.5% in January.

Rising rates are a direct indicator of Market Risk. Mr. Market is stating Turkey will struggle to pay it’s Debt. These loans are never repaid, just rolled over; 20%+ is definitely a danger zone!  Turkey has defaulted and not paid it’s debt 5 times in the last 100 years. A Turkish default will rock the Global Economy and hit the European Banks particularly hard.  Italian Banks have been in the news recently and not in a good way; 20% are reported to be struggling with solvency. Deutsche Bank of Germany has recently closed offices and furloughed 10,000 employees; none can easily afford Sovereign Debt losses. These are Systemically Important Financial Institutions! A Turkish default or even the thought of a default should send shivers down your spine.

An authoritative ruler who has replaced the head of the Central Bank with his son-in-law, who is threatening neighboring nations, who is threatening the US,  who has a crumbling domestic economy that is heavily debt ridden may be looking for an excuse to blame others and not repay those that have wronged him.  You do not talk nice enough and do not give us enough respect; you are so mean to us! We may not pay the money we owe you and it’s YOUR fault! Pay attention! Everything is connected. Turmoil will cause the US Dollar to get stronger;  maybe a lot stronger!

 

Ezekiel 38:13 Sheba and Dedan and the merchants of Tarshish with all its villages will say to you, ‘Have you come to capture spoil? Have you assembled your company to seize plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to capture great spoil?

Turkey’s economy is struggling for the reasons stated above. Sanctions against Iran are taking their toll on their economy. The Iranian currency continues to get pummeled against the US dollar. American economic sanctions against Russia are taking a bite out of their economy.

Ezekiel says Russia and its cohorts invade Israel for economic reason.  Five times in Ezekiel 38:13, verbs of the verse indicate taking goods from Israel.

‘Have you come to capture spoil? Have you assembled your company to seize plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to capture great spoil?

With struggling economies of the modern day countries involved, Ezekiel’s prophecy is making more sense every day…

https://michaeldouville.com

 

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch

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