Archive for bond market

Charles Nenner; The US Economy Is Heading Into TROUBLE! Interviewed by Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 11, 2022 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

With inflation, market volatility, and economic changes occurring in today’s world, Michael Douville had a chance to sit down and visit with one of the world’s foremost cyclical economist and market forecaster, Dr. Charles Nenner.

Dr. Nenner offers a free trial subscription for a few weeks. Please mention you watched this video. https://www.charlesnenner.com/

photo: Pinterest

May 2022: An Amazing and Candid interview with Charles Nenner. Charles discusses his Dow Jones Weekly chart showing all three of his Cycles that rule the Equity Market. The three cycles are all topping; topping just as they did in 2007. The Cycles are worse than in 2007-2008, the amount of downside in the last 4 months is the worst in 80 years; if this is the beginning, it can be a very bad time. There is a window of opportunity to sell into a bounce that appears to be imminent.

Dr. Nenner recommended to exit the Bond market for the last 2 years. The amount of money lost is tremendous; Q1 2022 was the worst Quarter for Bonds in 157 years. Interest rates are going much higher.

Charles Nenner sees a slight short term topping of Inflation and a near term moderation of Inflation, but sees Inflation for many years very similar as in the 80’s. Inflation will be a big problem moving forward. Natural gas and Crude oil are a big component.

Charles thinks there is nowhere to hide, but Cash is King at the moment. He believes Inflation will continue to be a major problem. European pension funds are in Bonds, many that are below zero. This is very difficult for Pension funds, it is not safe and no return. It will be very difficult for people to retire. It is not good to “Be in it for the long term!”

Dr. Nenner and Michael Douville have a significant discussion on the housing market. Are we in the process of peaking???

The Us Dollar is flirting with the 104 on the DXY, it is possible the US will get very strong and possibly go up to possible the low 120’s.

Looking at the Wheat chart, the prices are heading higher. Food prices are going to get much higher.

Click on the link below for all the economic details with Dr. Nenner’s proprietary charts and analysis.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

Market Changing? Raise Cash? -Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on January 25, 2022 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Proverbs 14:16 One who is wise is cautious and turns away from evil, but a fool is reckless and careless.

Cash is Trash? Think Again! I have been in many Stock Cycles, many Bond Cycles, through a few 18-year Real Estate Cycles and having a Cash Reserve on hand to insure against credit line restriction is good business, So Cash is not always Trash. Cash is also a separate asset class.

When the Economy gets in trouble, the Banks will take back their CREDIT LINES!

Having cash, savings, checking, and bills: $1, $5, $10 dollar bills, is reassuring to carry you through any slow period. We have all done well in the last couple of years, maybe it’s time to take some profit or refinance and take some cash.

I have been suggesting maybe it is time to take a little money off the TABLE! Trees do not grow to the sky, and it is often nice to have some cash to supplement through a soft patch or use for an Opportunity! Cash is not always TRASH!

However, DO NOT SPEND this money, the cash is for opportunities or reserves.

Click on the YouTube video below for the details.

When the Recession hit in 2020 the Stock Market dropped like a rock, and it was difficult to get out. More and more of my clients have their Asset Allocation overweighted in the Stock Market. The Stock Market has had a very good run and perhaps it is time to take a profit and place the Capital in another ASSET CLASS!

World famous cyclical economist Charles Nenner weighs in on the market with his proprietary charts.

Michael reviews where he thinks we are in the 18 year Real Estate Cycle.

Real Estate Rentals add diversification, Cash Flow, Capital Gains, and are a separate asset class. If you or your clients are overweighted in Equities, perhaps change Assets to Real Estate. Real Estate and especially Rental Real Estate is “Counter Cyclical” to the Stock Market and often Capital will flow out of one Asset Class into another. Real Estate often benefits! Self-Directed IRA’s and Self-Directed 401K’s are ideal. Real Estate Rentals not only provide an excellent Cash Flow, but also act as an Inflation Hedge.

Michael addresses charts from the Federal Reserve. In Q1 of 2020, there was $6.3 Trillion of stimulus unleashed into the Economy and that ignited INFLATION! Once worker make $20 an hour, they are not going back to $12 an hour.

Are economic bubbles beginning to pop? The economy appears to be cooling.

Please check with your Financial Advisor to discuss what is right for you. I do not advocate that all of your assets be in Real Estate, nor do I believe all of your assets should be in the Stock Market.

Click on the YouTube video below for the details.

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

Dr. Charles Nenner, Out of Stocks, December 2021

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , on November 30, 2021 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Dr. Charles Nenner is considered one of the Top Cycle researchers in the World. A former Goldman Sachs researcher, he is often interviewed on CNBC, Bloomberg, and MarketWatch.

If Dr. Nenner is talking, you should listen. Well… Michael Douville recently sat down with Dr. Charles Nenner to get his thoughts on the markets.

This is an in depth interview with Charles Nenner discussing Charles Nenner’s proprietary charts of the Dow, S&P, FANGS, and the Retail Chart.

Charles Nenner is out of the Stock Market, but other asset classes offer opportunity.

In addition, Dr. Nenner discusses the Bond Market with a forecast for declining interest rates.

The Gold market is soon poised for a multi-year upward trend; the Gold market has not yet bottomed, but is getting closer. Dividends from Gold mining stocks supplement income streams while waiting for the uptrend to begin.

Toll Brothers as a proxy for Real Estate is still in an uptrend until 2023.

Click on the video below for in depth market analysis.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Dr. Nenner says market volatility is coming. So… don’t listen to the media. The media is conflicted.

“Why” is the wrong question. “Why” has already happened.

“When” and “What” are more important. They tell you what is coming.

https://www.charlesnenner.com/

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Charles Nenner, Caution in the Bond Market, October 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , on October 1, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

September 30, 2020: Michael Douville has completed an interview with Dr. Charles Nenner.

Charles Nenner warns on the Stock Market. He is VERY concerned about the Bond Market. Nenner is very positive on Gold. Lastly, he discusses the Housing Market.

https://michaeldouville.com/

For more information contact: michael@michaeldouville.com

You will be listening to some of the best market analysis and research in the world for free. Wall St. pays to listen to Dr. Charles Nenner. You can’t afford not to listen…

Click on the YouTube link below for the conversation between Dr. Charles Nenner and Michael Douville. The interview is about 30 minutes. This is well worth one’s time!

In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman’s fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001. From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv. Mr. Nenner served as Director of Research at Windsor NY between 1987 and 1989, and was a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch out of its Amsterdam Office from 1985 to 1987. Mr. Nenner initiated a system of pattern forecasting and securities analysis, and developed a computer program which takes many indicators into account, including Mr. Nenner’s use of proprietary cycle analysis. Mr. Nenner graduated from Maimonides College Amsterdam in 1972, and from the University of Amsterdam Medical College, where he earned his medical degree in 1984.

https://www.charlesnenner.com/

Pay attention! Be mindful!

Charles Nenner Forecasts Another Possible Leg Down! June 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on June 28, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Michael Douville has just completed a sit down interview with Dr. Charles Nenner. He is one of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the world. When Dr. Nenner is talking, it would be wise to listen.

BUCKLE UP!!!! Check your stock positions, check your bond positions and be conservative and cautious! Dr. Nenner is still recommending gold and small residential rental units as a GOOD conservative investments.

Dr. Nenner sees interest rates to bottom in the next couple weeks. From there, he looks for rates to increase 2-4 years out.

We are heading into turmoil, it will be very dark, but there is a HUGE opportunity coming right behind this.

As Michael Douville states, there are times to be Bold and times to be Cautious. We read the tea leaves daily; we do not want to make a Mistake! As a follower of the Business Cycle and a realization that life does not move in a linear fashion, but rather moves through Cycles.

https://michaeldouville.com/

For more information contact: michael@michaeldouville.com

Click on the YouTube link below for the conversation between Dr. Charles Nenner and Michael Douville. This is well worth one’s time!

https://www.charlesnenner.com/

In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman’s fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001. From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv. Mr. Nenner served as Director of Research at Windsor NY between 1987 and 1989, and was a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch out of its Amsterdam Office from 1985 to 1987. Mr. Nenner initiated a system of pattern forecasting and securities analysis, and developed a computer program which takes many indicators into account, including Mr. Nenner’s use of proprietary cycle analysis. Mr. Nenner graduated from Maimonides College Amsterdam in 1972, and from the University of Amsterdam Medical College, where he earned his medical degree in 1984.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Global Economics and Market (P)Review, June 2020… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on June 10, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

1 Chronicles 12:32a And of the sons of Issachar, having understanding of the times, to know what Israel should do.

Business cycles come and go. What goes up must come down. What goes down eventually comes up again. Where are we in the cycle? Major market forces are coming together and they will impact our future and world. Understand the times we are witnessing.

Michael Douville breaks down the global economy and how trends in the dollar and interest rates will affect consumers. We live in historic and interesting economic times. Opportunity is around the corner.

Michael has talked with Dr. Charles Nenner regarding the real estate market, his timing model and charts. Mortgage rates are discussed. How low will interest rates go? Is it time to buy a new home or refinance an existing mortgage? Where will the housing market be in the next 18-24 months?

Michael discusses the impact of the dollar relative to commodity prices. Is the dollar starting to top out? What happens if the dollar loses its value? Commodities and goods are going higher in price.

Countries around the world are broke and cannot pay their bills in dollar denominated debt. What happens if the dollar gets stronger? Debt gets more expensive. Over 100 nations have reached out to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial help.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 189 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.

Created in 1945, the IMF is governed by and accountable to the 189 countries that make up its near-global membership. The IMF is a part of the United Nations (UN) system. https://www.imf.org/en/About

Make decisions now. Prepare and plan. Navigate through current and future economic trends.

Be ready. The explosive phase is coming!!!

Check out Michael’s comprehensive review and current standing of global markets, interest rates, currencies and more on the YouTube link below…

Michael Douville is an author and syndicated columnist.

Economic Webinar: Michael Douville, Charles Nenner, Walter Zimmerman, and Dave Ellefson, April 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 6, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Ecclesiastes 7:19 Wisdom makes the wise man stronger than ten rulers in a city.

Last week Michael Douville hosted an economic webinar discussing the current status of the global economy. The webinar lasts about one hour and is worth every second. Some of the world’s leading economic and market minds are included. For free Wall St. quality content, click on the link below.

https://www.amazon.com/Create-Estate-Machine-Retire-Income/dp/0996738517/

https://michaeldouville.com/

westusa.com

The real estate market and the 18 year property cycle were reviewed. Housing market analysis was provided.

Dr. Charles Nenner, one of the world’s leading cyclical economist and researcher, provided his latest information regarding the United States stock market. Nenner also mentioned his thoughts on the bond market. He believes corporate debt is junk and corporate interest rates are going higher. Nenner states the safer play is United States Treasury rates going down.

Michael Douville talks about the ramifications of a strong US dollar. Walter Zimmerman’s recent currency research is a point of emphasis.

http://ellefsonyouthmusicfoundation.org/

Megadeth’s bassist Dave Ellefson checks in and discusses real estate investment and execution. Ellefson is promoting free music lessons and his charitable website.

http://ellefsonyouthmusicfoundation.org/schoolsout/

We are proud to announce the #SCHOOLSOUT initiative, to give remote one-on-one mentoring sessions and music lessons via SKYPE, with legendary Rock and Metal artists, to students displaced from school activities by COVID 19 Restrictions.

Your instructors will be: David Ellefson (Megadeth), Dirk Verbeuren (Megadeth), Jimmy Degrasso (Ex-Megadeth, Alice Cooper), Ron “Bumblefoot” Thal (Sons of Apollo, Ex-Guns N’ Roses), Chris Kael (Five Finger Death Punch), Chad Szeliga (Black Star Riders, Walking with Lions), Chris Poland (Ex-Megadeth), Phil Demmel (Ex-Machine Head), and more to be announced.

Q&A section is provided at the end of the presentation.

How will this impact Investment Strategies? What are the implications for Foreign Investors? Where is a good place to invest? Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Silver, Real Estate (Good chart from Charles Nenner) What is the implication for interest rates. Will property continue to appreciate? Will rents continue to increase. Will net immigration continue? Is this a good time to sell? Is this a good time to buy? With Special Guest: Dave Ellefson

COVID 19 Rocks Markets… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Pestilence, Prophecy with tags , , , , , , , , on March 16, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

March 16, 2020: The stock markets were down 12-14%. President Trump expressed concern the COVID 19 response may take until August 2020. Markets did not respond favorably. This was the largest point less ever on the Dow Jones Industrial.

President Trump issued “15 Days to Slow the Spread”.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/15-days-slow-spread/

Here are the latest headlines with COVID 19

  • Crowds larger than 10 are not recommended with social distancing.
  • Schools across the United States are closing.
  • Social gatherings at theaters, restaurants, and bars are closing.
  • Oil drops below $30 per barrel.
  • San Francisco Bay Area orders residents to “shelter in place”.
  • 162 countries affected
  • Global cases at 183,000+
  • Deaths at 7,164
  • Italy cases at 27,980
  • Italy deaths at 2,158 (7.7% morbidity rate)
  • United States cases at 4,667
  • U.S. deaths at 87

San Francisco Mayor London Breed

Michael Douville has weighed in and expressed his thoughts. As always, Michael provides a common sense approach with practical advice.

One of the advantages of getting older are the episodes of Life we have been through. We have seen this before. It will be scary, it will give sleepless nights, but we are all going to come through this and be Fine! There will be stock rallies to help raise cash and there will be opportunities to buy other Investments.

We are all going to be FINE!! This will be Scary! There will be TURMOIL! This should lead to the Explosive Phase of the Real Estate Market. Remember, Real Estate is a separate asset class.

Check out Michael’s comments on the impact of the Coronavirus COVID 19.

www.michaeldouville.com

For COVID 19 Statistical data, click on the links below.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#

Dr. Charles Nenner Housing Update, Wall Street Blood Bath, March 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on March 9, 2020 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

One of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner has recently release his charts on the housing industry. Please keep in mind, this information was released before the onset of COVID 19, the coronavirus. This was also released before the Saudis and the Russians engaged in a price war in the oil markets.

Charles Nenner a World Class Market Researcher has sent me his chart of Lennar which he uses as a proxy for the US Housing Market. The chart shows a slowing until late in 2020. However, as a separate asset class this may be a great investment to earn excellent cash flow from a conservative investment.

Click on the link below for Nenner’s thoughts.

 

No one knows how badly the Coronavirus will affect the Global Economy or the Individual Family. However, the world is connected. Be prudent, take precautionary actions such as extra food, medicine, fever reducers, water, and additional cash at home. Discuss Financial exposure with your Advisor, review the asset classes.

Michael shared his thoughts a couple of weeks ago regarding the financial and economic impact of the coronavirus. These comments are more timely than ever. Click on the link below for Michael’s insights.

 

Today was a certified train wreck in the financial markets. Russia and Saudi Arabia have engaged in a war over the price of oil. The result was a crash in the price of oil. The price for a barrel of oil dropped 24% in a day. West Texas Crude settled at $31.13 per barrel.

The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were all off by over 7% today. Circuit breakers kicked in less than 5 minutes into trading and the markets were stopped for 15 minutes.

The 10 year treasury note closed below .5% or 50 basis points. The 30 year noted was below 1.0%

COVID 19 continues to grow across the globe. Italy has officially quarantined the population of the entire country.

  • 113,000+ infected globally
  • 4,000+ deaths globally
  • Italy approaching 10,000 cases
  • 112 countries and regions affected
  • 605 cases in the United States

 

Wuhan Virus Update, February 2, 2020

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Pestilence, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , on February 2, 2020 by paulthepoke

Luke 21:11b …and in various places famines and pestilences. -Jesus

Thursday, 1/30/20: The World Health Organization finally declared a global emergency regarding the Wuhan Virus. Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization is calling “all countries to work together in a spirit of solidarity and cooperation. We are all in this together, and we can only stop it together.”

Click on the link below for the WHO complete statement and declaration.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

President Trump and the United States declared a public health emergency on Friday, 1/31/20.

“I want to emphasize that this is a serious health situation in China, but I want to emphasize that the risk to the American public is currently low. Our goal is to do all we can do to keep it that way,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield

The Wuhan Virus is starting to make an economic impact on global markets. On Friday, 1/31/20, the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the United States closed down 603.41 points, or 2.1%, to 28,256.03.

The economic impact is likely to be significant considering China’s consumption of goods as measured against the rest of the planet. Chinese financial regulators are set to provide $173 billion of liquidity when markets open on Monday, February 3, 2020.

Michael Douville has weighed in on the impact of the Wuhan Virus as well. The virus may be the tipping point for the global economy. Michael has been monitoring the slowing global economy for at least the last 6 months. Indexes show shipping around the planet is slowing. On Friday, the yield curve in the bond market inverted which indicates a slowing economy. Economic activity is halting across China because of the Wuhan Virus. Michael likes gold, silver, bonds and rental properties. As always, check with your financial consultant. Click on the link below for Michael’s comments on the Wuhan Virus impact.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fs9AOcvaWXwGaNRXcAh-DRh8k–hyliH/view

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The following points are from various headlines across the internet. These information points are continually expanding.

  • Companies like Apple, Google, Starbucks, Ikea, and Tesla are closing operations and stores in China.
  • Global airlines are suspending flights in and out of China.
  • The U.S. State Department has alerted Americans not to travel to China.
  • Other countries limiting travel to China include Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Qatar, Turkmenistan, Singapore, New Zealand
  • North Korea and Russia have closed their borders to China.

The New York Times is providing live updates on the Wuhan Virus. The stream is loaded with all kinds of information including an embedded reporter in Wuhan. See the link below.

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There is the following headline out of New Zealand and suppressed death numbers. Coronavirus: China accused of ‘burning bodies in secret’

The New York Post published an article indicating there may be as many as 75,000 already infected. Other news outlets globally are indicating the same.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/01/over-75000-people-in-wuhan-reportedly-may-be-infected-with-coronavirus/

~

February 2, 2020: Here is the latest update regarding the spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus… Allegedly… Numbers and data are rapidly changing.

  • 14,549 infected world wide
  • 305 deaths
  • First death reported outside of China in the Philippines
  • At least 60,000,000 people remain quarantined.
  • Virus is now reported in at least 25 countries.

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