Archive for bond market

Living in Economic Extremes…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , on February 27, 2018 by paulthepoke

Hebrews 11:7 By faith Noah, being warned by God concerning events as yet unseen, in reverent fear constructed an ark for the saving of his household. By this he condemned the world and became an heir of the righteousness that comes by faith.

What if Noah had not acted and had not prepared on God’s warning? One can believe God and not act accordingly…

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Do you have a life boat?

Author: Michael Douville

Trey Smith of God in the Nutshell Productions, author and documentarian, interviews Michael Douville, author, fiduciary and financial advisor, about the economy, stock market and debt.

The interview also has excerpts from noted economic experts like Harry Dent, Zero Hour author and business analyst; Jim Rogers, financial commentator; Peter Elindes, Stockmarket Cycles editor and publisher; Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Company founder and author; and Joe Needham, an investor.

They discuss a correction in the stock market of 40-50% and they also discuss that the US and the World have an unsustainable amount of debt.

Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets. Check us out at  https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

 

 

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Bubble Deflating? Have a Plan…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , on February 19, 2018 by paulthepoke

Genesis 41:33-36 Now therefore let Pharaoh select a discerning and wise man, and set him over the land of Egypt. Let Pharaoh proceed to appoint overseers over the land and take one-fifth of the produce of the land of Egypt during the seven plentiful years. And let them gather all the food of these good years that are coming and store up grain under the authority of Pharaoh for food in the cities, and let them keep it. That food shall be a reserve for the land against the seven years of famine that are to occur in the land of Egypt, so that the land may not perish through the famine.”

MichaelWhat do you do with your money when the Stock Market is unstable? Is the Bubble Deflating? Michael talks about your options. Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets? Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.

Click on the link below for video.

 

 

Have a plan. Joseph did. The good times never last forever.

Check us out at https://michaeldouville.com. The first consultation is always free. Michael’s Book, How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income, is available on line. Email Michael at michael@michaeldouville.com

Time to Preserve your Wealth…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on December 7, 2017 by paulthepoke

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Ecclesiastes 3:12 I perceived that there is nothing better for them than to be joyful and to do good as long as they live…

“Timing; it is all about Timing!” “ Know when to get off!” “There are times to be aggressive and times to be cautious!” “It is not what you make, but what you keep that Counts” “Trees do not grow to the sky!”

These adages are especially true today regarding the Historic levels of both the Stock and Bond Markets. These sayings mimic real life experience and explain that Life is a series of Cycles that ebb and flow throughout History. It is Wisdom that allows one the courage to ACT! Courage will be needed to recognize danger and courage will be needed to Preserve your Wealth for the Future!

Stock Market Cycles have characteristics of a Wave Pattern that peaks about every 7 years; examples of the latest bubbles are March 2000, then December 2007 (7.5 years), and now almost 10 years from the last Stock Market Peak; courtesy of the World’s Central Banks. The final push to the top often is exaggerated with huge gains associated with the Peaking Process.; a vertical price appreciation spike often develops near the cycle end, adding to the Mania. The Mantra of “This Time is Different” is almost universal in the topping process as no one wants to believe the “Good Times” are ending. The Federal Reserve has announced it will no longer support the markets; rather, the Fed is withdrawing liquidity at a scheduled rate of $510 Billion for 2018. The “Good Times” are over! The Central Banks of the World have also declared their intention to bring Central Bank purchases to a screeching halt from $2 Trillion to ZERO by April of 2018. Beware, the Party IS OVER!! “What goes up, must come down.

If the Cycle has been artificially stretched by Central Bank intervention and the Banks have declared their intentions to end this intervention in BOTH the Stock and Bond Markets, it is time to “Jump Ship”. One does not need to be fully invested at all times. Numerous Private and Institutional Clients have already begun to take profits. Perhaps removing the original investment from any Risk or “Harm’s Way” would be prudent; parking the proceeds in Cash. Preserving Wealth will allow one to participate in different Investment Cycles such as the Commodity Cycle that appears to be in the bottoming process. Much of the Price Risk has been “Drained” from that Asset class as the demand for Raw Materials has “fallen off a cliff” and is beginning to show some signs of improvement. The Commodity Cycle, once it starts to rise, often completes in 7.5 years; plenty of time to season more true Wealth. Consider this, the Housing Cycle is a much longer cycle of 18.5 years that should Peak and Possibly Spike in the 2023/24 time frame. Investing in Housing now will allow participation in the Commodity Cycle as well as the Real Estate Cycle. Raw Materials are necessary for Construction, as they inflate, housing will follow; thus benefiting from two powerful trends.

https://michaeldouville.com/time-preserve-wealth/

 

 

How to Make HUGE Profits without even Trying!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , on October 4, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelMatthew 16:2-3 He answered them, “When it is evening, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.’ And in the morning, ‘It will be stormy today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times. -Jesus

Fortune 500 firms have had a few very good Quarters: sell product in Euro’s, Pounds, Yuans, Kronas, Swiss Francs, and even Rubles then convert them to US Dollars! Sheer Genius! An explosion in profitability without any improvements in Productivity, Innovation, or the time honored increases in Plants and Equipment! No additional employees are needed that would affect the profits; just devalue the US Dollar. Consider the fact that the beginning of the year, the US Dollar Index fluctuated between 102 and 103 and now is hovering around 93; a decline or devalue of 9.7% The Euro stood at 105 January 1st of this year and as of Oct 1, 2017 it is 118; a gain or strengthening of 12.3%.   What this means is Ford can sell a car for $30,000 Euros and convert to US Dollars with a Year-Over-Year gain of better than 12%: Genius! All of the multinational firms which are most if not all of them are experiencing this phenomenon! The Equity Markets are up 15% YTD, the US Dollar has devalued 12%. Could there be a Correlation? Could the decline of the dollar force the Stock Market higher? Further, Economies outside of the US receive the added bonus of Loan Repayments repaid in much cheaper Dollars discounting the Debt! Everyone wins! However, everything cycles! The US Dollar cycle IS forecast to go much lower, but buckle up and hold on, not necessarily in a straight line and not necessarily for just a few months!

The Business Cycle is getting tired and the accumulation of Debt has been Historic. In tough times or perilous times, the US Dollar becomes the currency of choice creating demand; demand will raise the price which will have the opposite affect of a declining Dollar: Markets will drop and Economies stall. The Globe would be vulnerable to a Recession, which would enhance the race to the US Dollar. Debt would become more expensive and much more difficult to service, possibly precipitating defaults of weaker entities. Once started, the completion to the Business Cycle will finish; a brutal cleansing will take place. Those that recognize the Portends and Prepare will not only survive, but have intact resources to purchase Assets that may be discounted to levels that will not be available for Generations, possibly never again.

The completion of this Business Cycle could be very scary. It could affect millions of families. Business revenues could decline precipitously; many will fail. We have been through this before and will go though it again in our lifetimes; in each case Income was paramount to survival. Further, over-leveraged, debt burdened entities were the greatest at risk; there is still time to pay debt. Although there are no guarantees in Life, Good Times do not last nor do Bad Times; this cleansing cycle will give way to incredibly better times. There are many Top Analysts that expect the Dollar to eventually cycle to new lows over the coming years, which might cause the Stock Market to explode to much higher levels and Real Assets skyrocket to new levels creating Generational Wealth.

In the Great Recession, the rental portfolio was a Lifeboat providing consistent cash flow month after month even though the general Business climate was very poor. The paper cash value declined, but the Income fluctuated well less than 10% and the vacancy factor dropped, the maintenance factor dropped, the taxes and insurance all dropped mitigating the slight decline in Rental Revenue. The current Investment Horizon is a minimum of 7 years which should be well beyond any crisis and the goal is to catch the bottom of the Dollar decline and the peak of the current Real Estate Cycle. Please consult with your advisor, but please consider re-allocating a portion of your portfolio to very conservative, residential rentals for consistent monthly Income.

Contact us at 480.948.5554 or michaeldouville0@gmail.com.  Your first consultation is always free and check out our website for more information at michaeldouville.com. Michael’s book “How to Create a Real Estate Money Machine and Retire with Income” is available on Amazon. Thank you.

 

Return OF Your Investment!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , on September 27, 2017 by paulthepoke

MichaelProverbs 27:12 The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.

There are times to be Bold and times to be Cautious. Everything associated with the US Stock Market is distorted! The Stock Market has reached all time record highs, but valuations seem to be overly stretched with historically precarious P/E ratios of over 30+. Current Corporate Profits are suspect due to the liberal use of Non-GAAP accounting procedures which give enormous flexibility to Earnings. In addition, Dividends have been paid with Debt rather than Profits and the use of debt is so pervasive that Margin Debt used to leverage stock purchases is now also at Historic all-time levels and will compound and multiply any downturn in prices. Further, Central Banks have for 10 years, relentlessly pushed the Global Stock and Bond Markets higher, but now are attempting to shrink their balance sheets. The Fed is starting to sell $10 Billion a month for the 4th Quarter of 2017 and will be increasing every quarter through 2018 resulting in $510 Billion of liquidity withdrawal. Removing the constant purchasing of Equities may introduce Selling Pressure creating the unwanted opposite effect.
Trees do not grow to the sky and cycles eventually turn. There comes a time to take profits and re-distribute assets to safer allocations. In December of 2007, Charles Nenner recommended cashing out of the Stock Market and remained out until after March of 2009 avoiding the horrific sell off. He has again recommended to be out of Equities since July 1, 2017 and recommends only “Small Units” that can be rented for a portion of assets. Bill Gross who was known as the Bond King because of his stature with PIMCO, has stated he does not like Stocks and does not like Bonds believing both asset classes are extremely overvalued and risky. Mr Gross recommended Real Assets such as Gold and Real Estate in August of 2016. Real Assets versus Financial Assets are now inverse to Financials having declined for several years; they now appear to have bottomed, but have not yet turned up.
 

As shown on the chart above, a new Commodity Cycle is due to appear. There are many reasons for an increase in prices; a declining US Dollar would be a good pick. Nonetheless, these cycles come with regularity and are inverse to the Stock and Bond Markets. As copper, iron ore, gold, lumber, and land increase, typically, stocks and bonds decline as higher commodity prices are the harbinger to higher interest rates and inflation.

To be Prudent, consider an exit strategy for any precipitous decline in the Markets or Economy. Should the Commodity Cycle begin, the building components of Single Family homes typically thrive causing Capital Appreciation in addition to the consistent monthly Cash Flow and Income. Due to the Hurricane damage in Houston and Florida, Maricopa County in Arizona should be considered as a prime market for investment.

Contact us at 480.948.5554.  Your first consultation is always free and check out our website for more information at

https://michaeldouville.com/return-of-your-investment/

Thank you.

PaulthePoke

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