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Charles Nenner; The US Economy Is Heading Into TROUBLE! Interviewed by Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags bond market, bonds, cash, crude, cycles, Dow Jones, Dr. Charles Nenner, DXY, equity markets, Inflation, market, natural gas, oil, pension funds, Stock Market Cycle, US dollar, wheat on May 11, 2022 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent see danger and take cover, but the simple keep going and suffer the consequences.

With inflation, market volatility, and economic changes occurring in today’s world, Michael Douville had a chance to sit down and visit with one of the world’s foremost cyclical economist and market forecaster, Dr. Charles Nenner.

Dr. Nenner offers a free trial subscription for a few weeks. Please mention you watched this video. https://www.charlesnenner.com/

May 2022: An Amazing and Candid interview with Charles Nenner. Charles discusses his Dow Jones Weekly chart showing all three of his Cycles that rule the Equity Market. The three cycles are all topping; topping just as they did in 2007. The Cycles are worse than in 2007-2008, the amount of downside in the last 4 months is the worst in 80 years; if this is the beginning, it can be a very bad time. There is a window of opportunity to sell into a bounce that appears to be imminent.

Dr. Nenner recommended to exit the Bond market for the last 2 years. The amount of money lost is tremendous; Q1 2022 was the worst Quarter for Bonds in 157 years. Interest rates are going much higher.

Charles Nenner sees a slight short term topping of Inflation and a near term moderation of Inflation, but sees Inflation for many years very similar as in the 80’s. Inflation will be a big problem moving forward. Natural gas and Crude oil are a big component.

Charles thinks there is nowhere to hide, but Cash is King at the moment. He believes Inflation will continue to be a major problem. European pension funds are in Bonds, many that are below zero. This is very difficult for Pension funds, it is not safe and no return. It will be very difficult for people to retire. It is not good to “Be in it for the long term!”

Dr. Nenner and Michael Douville have a significant discussion on the housing market. Are we in the process of peaking???

The Us Dollar is flirting with the 104 on the DXY, it is possible the US will get very strong and possibly go up to possible the low 120’s.

Looking at the Wheat chart, the prices are heading higher. Food prices are going to get much higher.

Click on the link below for all the economic details with Dr. Nenner’s proprietary charts and analysis.

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

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Dr. Charles Nenner, Out of Stocks, December 2021

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags bond market, charts, cycles, Dow Jones, Dr. Charles Nenner, FANGS, gold, interest rates, market, real estate, S&P 500 on November 30, 2021 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…

Dr. Charles Nenner is considered one of the Top Cycle researchers in the World. A former Goldman Sachs researcher, he is often interviewed on CNBC, Bloomberg, and MarketWatch.

If Dr. Nenner is talking, you should listen. Well… Michael Douville recently sat down with Dr. Charles Nenner to get his thoughts on the markets.

This is an in depth interview with Charles Nenner discussing Charles Nenner’s proprietary charts of the Dow, S&P, FANGS, and the Retail Chart.

Charles Nenner is out of the Stock Market, but other asset classes offer opportunity.

In addition, Dr. Nenner discusses the Bond Market with a forecast for declining interest rates.

The Gold market is soon poised for a multi-year upward trend; the Gold market has not yet bottomed, but is getting closer. Dividends from Gold mining stocks supplement income streams while waiting for the uptrend to begin.

Toll Brothers as a proxy for Real Estate is still in an uptrend until 2023.

Click on the video below for in depth market analysis.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Dr. Nenner says market volatility is coming. So… don’t listen to the media. The media is conflicted.

“Why” is the wrong question. “Why” has already happened.

“When” and “What” are more important. They tell you what is coming.

https://www.charlesnenner.com/

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

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You Cannot Save Your Way to Retirement!…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags asset classes, Baby Boomers, financial adviser, market, nest egg, real estate, rental homes, retirement, social security, stock market on September 2, 2017 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 3:1-2 My son, do not forget my teaching, but let your heart keep my commandments, for length of days and years of life and peace they will add to you.

Everyone looks forward to the day you stay home when everyone else is working. A lifetime of work obligations has finally come to an end; your time now belongs to you! Unfortunately, a new set on concerns emerges: how will the bills get paid when you quit working? Will the Nest Egg last 30 years? How much is enough?

It is always a surprise to realize just how expensive Life can be. Retirement is not necessarily cheap. This is the time when dreams are realized and Cruises are booked, Flights are booked, Motor Homes bought and travel plans are made. You and your spouse have planned for years to enjoy a trouble free and worry free life. Grandchildren are visited and taken to Disneyland or Lego Land, memories are made to last forever. However, very few will enjoy their “Golden Years”.

The average baby Boomer turning 66 today has earned a Social Security payment of approximately $1404 a month. This is for someone who has forgone “Early” payments and has waited to receive the “Full Retirement” benefit. Unfortunately, most Retirees take early retirement as soon as they qualify at 62 and the monthly revenue drops to $1077 per month. Either way, most working couples can count on Social Security for well less than $2800/month; for Life! Hardly riches to fund Cruises or Motor Homes! In addition, the average “Nest Egg” is $109,000. Sorry, it needs to last a long time and annuitized, results in a monthly payment of less than $400 per month. The Government Accounting Office tracks these statistics and it is even worse than this scenario: the average Baby boomer receives less than $19,000 a year and has a net worth of less than $35,000. Further, many retirees are 100% out of money within 10-20 years of retirement. This has resulted in a record labor participation rate of 62% for workers aged 75+; retired and back to work! Saving and conserving is woefully lacking in preparing for an American Retirement. Everyone MUST invest.

There are basically 4 asset classes for the average American: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and Real Estate. Stocks and Bonds have done incredibly well since 2009. So well, many believe a bubble exists in both asset classes. Stocks have enjoyed a Market with virtually no corrections or downturns for years and may be extremely overdue and overvalued. Risk in the Stock Market may be much higher than many realize. An average recession results in a 39.6% loss in most portfolios; at 66, there is not time to re-build. Bonds have been calculated by Martin Armstrong to be close to a 5,000 year high with interest rates below the ancient Sumerians! Any rise in rates devastates a Bond portfolio and with rates this low, yields are likely to rise more than fall.

Commodities have been devastated and although prices seem to have stopped falling, it may be after the next recession before they recover. Real Estate is also subject to Market Declines that devastate other Asset Classes, but the Cycle length is much longer while the Cash Flow component mitigates any market turbulence. The Cash Flow is a great help during Recessions when business is struggling.

Rental homes continue to consistently provide monthly cash flow even in down turns and historically have appreciated gaining in value and monthly rental cash flow. Rental homes are perfect for Retirement planning and can be held inside retirement vehicles like Self-Directed IRA’s or can be held personally where they often offer Tax Shelter to qualified owners. Cyclically, Real Estate enjoys a long 18.5 year average duration and although corrections in an ongoing Bull Market can occur, accumulation for a cycle review in 2023/2024 could be appropriate.

It is never too late to start an Investment Program. Please review with your financial Adviser. If I or my staff can help, the first step is just to ask and the first consultation is always FREE!

https://michaeldouville.com/cannot-save-way-retirement/

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Retiring Wealthy Today, Back to Work in 10 Years?…Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags Baby Boomers, black swan, economy, financial adviser, market, Proverbs 6, retirement, seniors on August 7, 2017 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 6:6-8 Go to the ant, O sluggard, observe her ways and be wise, which, having no chief, officer or ruler, prepares her food in the summer and gathers her provision in the harvest.

Plans! So many plans are made for the “Golden Years” when the kids braces are paid, first cars have been bought, tuitions have been paid, and the Age of Retirement has been attained. The “Nest Egg” of Retirement Funds, Savings, and Social Security should last a lifetime. A Lifetime can be a long time!

The GAO (Government Accounting Office) keeps track of the Retirement Statistics and reports startling findings:

A) 52% of Americans 55 and over have NO retirement Savings.

B) 48% that have Retirement Savings have a median amount of $109,000. This annuitizes to $405 a month.

C) 50% of Baby Boomers will be out of money within 10-20 years

D) The average Baby Boomer’s net worth is $34,760 with Income of $18,932.

These terrible facts have resulted in Seniors returning to the workforce in vast numbers distorting the employment statistics. Notice who is ringing up your groceries, stocking the shelves at the hardware store, or preparing your coffee. These retirees are not in the workforce for entertainment or to pass the time, they need to pay the electric bill, buy tires for the car, and pay for their prescriptions. In 2013, 9.6 million jobs had been recovered, 7.2 million went to those over 55. The trend has accelerated. Here is a Chart of age labor participation:

Retirees are Broke! The highest participation rate for 2017 is the 75 years old and up (10 years after retirement?) with a participation rate of 62%! Failure to plan is planning to fail. Those that planned have higher risks they may know.

There are so many Red Flags and Black Swans in the Global Economy; there should be none. Recessions are the final segment of the Business Cycle and they come with regularity. It has been 9 years since 2008; the cycle may be completing. Also, the average Baby Boomer’s wealth is parked in the Stock Market; typically 70% with 20% in Bonds. The regular, average Recession causes losses in Equities of 40%. At 65, you do not have time to wait for a rebound! A Recession is coming, no one knows when. What will happen to your Dreams, your Plans, your Security if you lost 40% or more? Still feel Wealthy? Still feel Secure?

It is not necessary to consistently place your Portfolio at Risk. In times of uncertainty, consider taking profits and going to CASH with a significant portion. Speak to your Financial Adviser about an Exit Strategy if the Market turns against you. Review your debt load and monthly obligations; reduce your costs. Consider other asset classes that do not correlate with Wall Street like very conservative rental properties managed by Professionals which will provide consistent, conservative Income for a portion of your portfolio. Remember to have fun, you earned it.

https://michaeldouville.com/retiring-wealthy-today-back-work-10-years/