Archive for California

Breaking… California Earthquake

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Earthquakes/Volcanoes, Isaiah, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , on July 6, 2019 by paulthepoke

Luke 21:11a There will be great earthquakes… -Jesus

Developing Story…

Ridgecrest, CA: A 7.1 magnitude quake has occurred on Friday evening at 8:19 p.m. This trembler comes on the heels of a 6.4 magnitude quake that happened the day before on Thursday.


Ridgecrest is located about 150 miles northeast of Los Angeles and about 230 miles west of Las Vegas. Ridgecrest has a population of about 27,000 people.

Click on the video from Twitter

Fires are reported in the Ridgecrest area. Highway damage was noted from the quake on July 4th. Injuries are indicated.

Highway 178 Closed

This is a preview of what Isaiah says is to come. See Isaiah 24-27 for complete details of the end times geological scenario in Isaiah’s Apocalypse.

Isaiah 24:19 The earth is utterly broken, the earth is split apart, the earth is violently shaken.

Standing at the CRAPS Table… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 27, 2018 by paulthepoke


1 Timothy 6:10-11 For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evils. It is through this craving that some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pangs. But as for you, O man of God, flee these things. Pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, steadfastness, gentleness.

Notice what the verse does not say. It does not say, “Money is the root of all evil.”

It is the love of money that is the problem. Coveting money is the problem. It is the longing and desire and focus. The mental attitude is the issue. Making money in the stock market is not evil. There is nothing wrong with investing. But don’t be greedy…

Timing is EVERYTHING!!! Investing in Stocks in early 2009 was the perfect time to enter the market. The S&P has enjoyed an unbroken string of positive years for the last 9 years; the second longest in History.  An almost no risk Investment resulting in a 280% increase in the Index including dividend reinvestment; Wow!  If one had the prescience to purchase Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, and Netflix in the same period, multiples of the S&P have been gained; 500-900%. WOW, WOW!!

Using a little longer time line, historically, the Casino was not built on winners!

Recently cracks in the Markets are starting to show. First Netflix missed the projected number of new subscribers and also lower revenue, and on July 17, 2018 the stock dropped 14% in after hours trading immediately after the announcement. This was followed one week later July 26th by Facebook’s lower than projected Quarterly and again after hours experienced the greatest loss in history of over $119 Billion Dollars in 24 hours. Just days later, another tech giant, Twitter, lost 21% in value on July 28th.  Wealthy one day; not so wealthy the next. Timing is Everything!

A player at the Casino has had an extraordinary run of luck; an extravagant bet of $100 has become $12,800 in 8 wins at the Dice Pass line. The player is allowing the winnings to accumulate in a double or nothing strategy. The” House” is encouraging another bet. After all historically, the player has won each time. What should the player do?  Using a little longer time line, historically, the Casino was not built on winners!

Timing is Everything! Assess your goals, assess your needs; you do to need to be 100% invested. You do not need to be invested 100% of the time. Maybe the advice should be take some of the winnings off the table!!! Maybe you have enough and it is time to reduce RISK!

Old, Sick & Very Broke pt 3 of 3… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 21, 2018 by paulthepoke

Deuteronomy 28:12 The LORD will open for you His good storehouse, the heavens, to give rain to your land in its season and to bless all the work of your hand; and you shall lend to many nations, but you shall not borrow.

Deuteronomy 23:20 You may charge a foreigner interest, but you may not charge your brother interest, that the LORD your God may bless you in all that you undertake in the land that you are entering to take possession of it.

Continuing with the theme of rising interest rates, bad things happen to Stocks as well.

Rising interest rates compete with the dividend rate of stocks. Currently, the S&P pays a total of 1.68% for annual dividends, but accepting market risk. Currently in June of 2018, a 1 year Treasury held to maturity pays 2.34% with almost no risk. That rate has risen from 1.22% just exactly 1 year earlier.  Further, Corporations have been the largest buyer of their own company stock. Executives have realized that by borrowing money to buy company stock, they can reduce the outstanding shares and thereby raise the per share return just by maintaining the same revenue. The Executives bonus is tied to increasing share revenue which increases their bonus share offering. Everyone wins; well the executives win!

The Real Estate turmoil should be contained as a correction in an ongoing Bull Market. It could be severe! It could be scary!

However, as rates rise, it is more difficult and more expensive to borrow funds earmarked for Financial Engineering so less and less buybacks will occur at exactly the same time Central banks are reducing purchases. Share prices are directly related to profits; rising rates will deteriorate those profits. As an aside, $4 Trillion in Corporate Bonds are due to be refinanced in the next 3 years; all will be at much higher rates. Higher rates cause costs of Production, Research and Development, and all CAPEX to rise squeezing viability. Just this one HUGE change should cause the hair on the back of your neck to rise; for 10 years, rates were basically ZERO. Now they are NOT!

Retirees hold 70% of their assets in Stocks.  Prices can go down much faster than they go up. In fact, they can plummet!  This fact has been ignored for years until a 3000 point drop in 2 weeks in February 2018. UH-OH! Wake Up! Historic Margin debt may be one cause of these sharp air pocket declines. Leveraging an Equity position is oh so fun as the market expands to new levels.  A reverse of trend will intensify and magnify the losses. Margin calls will force sales which forces prices down which forces sales. A very bad spiral.

Boomers have watched this Movie before; get out of the way! Take Profits! Remove some portion of the portfolio to safety.

Higher rates will impact the Real Estate asset class as well. Fewer families will be able to afford a home of their own as the Affordability Index is directly correlated to payment levels. Fewer buyers qualifying places pressure on prices. Property in overheated markets will be at risk. Luxury homes will become less affordable.  Already our neighbors to the North are experiencing declining sales in Toronto and Alberta. New York City is starting to feel pressure in the luxury condo market as new units come onto the market already crowded with existing units. The Real Estate Cycle is long; 18.5 years.  The last Real Estate Bubble scorched the Earth when it failed, but that was only 9 years ago. Too early for completion of that cycle.

However, the timing would be perfect for a Real Estate correction which typically occurs 7.5 to 9.5 years from the bottom.  Just as a reminder, the bottom was January 2010, give or take a few months.  Simple math places the Real Estate Cycle in the middle of the Jeopardy Period; perfectly matching the expected Epic completion of both the Stock and Bond Markets.

The Real Estate turmoil should be contained as a correction in an ongoing Bull Market. It could be severe! It could be scary!  It will be a Generational buying opportunity for those with vision and courage; also surviving Capital!!! Remember the Affordability Index that should start to close families out of the buying market. They will become TENANTS!!! Long term TENANTS!! Fortunes will be made!!! Not only huge Capital Gains as the Real Estate Cycle moves out of the correction phase, but CASH FLOW! Increasing CASH FLOW.  More revenue each year, growing earnings. If a little leverage is used, the tenants PAY OFF the Mortgage! Remember the Bengen Rule with 4% fixed for life depleting in 30 years? Throw it out!!! Not only will the rental revenue grow and grow providing more and more cash each month, but the loan is being paid off.  A simple 20% down payment becomes a 100% after 30 years; multiplying by 5 times!!! Rentals are easy! Rentals are Profitable! Rentals are run by Property Managers, NOT you!!!

Consult with your Professional about an Exit Strategy for the Stock and Bond Markets. Take Profits and preserve your Wealth! Move your assets into a different Asset Class that has a much longer horizon for Wealth and Income forever!!!

Old, Sick & Very Broke pt 2 of 3… Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 6, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

Ecclesiastes 3:3b a time to break down, and a time to build up…

This is a simple thought.  When you are in retirement or getting ready for it, you are “not in it for the long haul”! Getting older can sometimes feel like a chore, but it comes with the added benefit of perspective; asset markets have a cycle.  If you are in your 60’s, you have been through 4 or 5 Business Cycles and know they all end badly. This current Cycle will not be any different. Already, the current expansion is the second longest on record. It is also the weakest expansion ever! In this Cycle, the GDP has never exceeded 2.3% and that is with massive fiscal stimulation.  The Great Financial Crisis scared the authorities and Ben Bernanke embarked on a unprecedented program of Global monetary liquidation forcing the economy to postpone the cleansing of insolvent,  poorly managed, or ill timed investments. In June of 2018, Mr Bernanke now has been quoted as alluding to a Wile E. Coyote moment for the US Economy within the next 12 months as the Business Cycle hits an air pocket for FREE FALL!

Knowing what will happen is not the same as when it will happen!  There certainly is a Timing Component to consider. Leave the Stocks and Bond markets too early and the late stage gains are forfeited, too late and maybe all the gains are lost, or worse! Knowing that the Cycle does and will end gives an incredible advantage. One can watch for signs the Business Cycle is about to complete. Invariably, the Federal Reserve raises rates until a slowdown is well established. Not recognizing the Change in Trend the Fed generally hikes at least 2 or 3 times more until a downward spiral has started leading into the Last Stage of the Business Cycle which is ugly and can be very brutal. The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates for two years and now much more aggressively indicating a 25 basis raise every other Fed meeting.

Retirees typically allocate 20-40% of their portfolio to Bonds and Debt. The cash flow generated by fixed investment is predictable and consistent; Debt is a Stealthy Risk. Rising rates will devastate Bonds. Would not the prudent course of action be to reduce to much shorter duration and raise the quality?

This chart illustrates the drastic change in the pace of the rate increases. “Normalization” is still a long way away. 2.38% June 22, 2018, Credit card debt has already risen from 8% to well over 13% and the consumer has accumulated RECORD CREDIT CARD DEBT!

2 year Treasuries climbing FAST!

The Federal Reserve not only directly influences the short term rates in the US, but sets the tone for the rest of the World.  As rates rise in the US, other Central Banks are still suppressing rates notably the European Central Bank maintaining their policy of buying bonds. However, all central banks have stated they are in the process of tapering their Asset Purchases to Zero!!  The effect is rates are now free to rise and the ascension has started. Further,  this will come as no surprise,  the markets are anticipating increasing rates. The process has started!

As of June 22, 2018, Turkey’s 10 Year Bond was priced at 15.7%.  The Turkish Lire is also rapidly losing value; Turkey has defaulted 6 times in the last 100 years.  Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, the Ukraine are just a few of the Sovereign Nations in trouble with their debt. Look for Defaults; once started a possible Cascade.

Turkey is in REAL trouble!  US rates are driving rates higher throughout the World.  Higher rates affect 40-60% of all Global Debt currently estimated at $217 Trillion. None of us think about the fact that Governments never pay the principal back or even reduce it, Government Debt is simply refinanced. Think about that!! What will tripling the debt service do to already stretched budgets? Social Services will need to be reduced. Not only those that receive the benefit, but also the providers will be curtailed causing a declining ripple effect throughout the World. When the Central Banks stop buying the debt of the Nations, Municipalities, Towns, Villages and Corporations, who will buy Debt priced a 0.1%, or 1%, or 2 %? Probably no one! Rates are heading up and heading up fast and much higher than anyone thought.

Italy has been in the news and not in a good way! Pay Attention!

As the Federal Reserve unwinds the Debt on it’s balance sheet, long term rates will rise as well.

The Federal Reserve has stated it’s intention to raise rates. Central Banks around the World have joined together to state they also will allow rates to rise.  All Debt including Treasury Notes, Bills, and Bonds lose value when rates rise. The longer the maturity, the greater the loss. Unless one believes this trend is going to reverse , holding debt guarantees a loss unless held to maturity. Bond Funds never mature; probably losses have already started. A rapid rise in rates may cause a rush to exit the asset class.  If Sovereign, Municipality, State, or Corporate bonds begin to default as rising rates and a slowing economy could initiate, there could be a Panic to sell Bonds.

Retirees typically allocate 20-40% of their portfolio to Bonds and Debt. The cash flow generated by fixed investment is predictable and consistent; Debt is a Stealthy Risk. Rising rates will devastate Bonds. Would not the prudent course of action be to reduce to much shorter duration and raise the quality? Maybe reduce the exposure to Debt? One does not need to be fully invested at all times.  Cash flow from other asset classes can easily replace fixed income revenue, potentially grow to double or triple the cash flow, and probably prove to be a much, much safer allocation.

The Bond Market has an incredibly long Cycle of 70 years: 35 years with rates trending up and 35 years with rates trending down.  It appears the Bond Cycle bottomed in July of 2016.  As such, the Risk is very evident. As Turmoil begins in the World, Capital will flow to supposedly safer Assets. US Treasuries should enjoy a short window of lower rates as demand for Treasuries depresses rates.This Window may be short-lived, any adjustable rates should be reviewed for refinance into fixed. Further, for disciplined Investors only; Helocs might be created and the funds saved for a Rainy Day.  When turmoil strikes, the Banks quit lending. Cash becomes KING!

Stocks are a little more complicated. The typical Stock Cycle is 7.5 to 9.5 years. This one is the second longest in recent history.

Stocks and Bonds peak and then roll over,  but it is a process not an event.  The US Stock market is usually the last to suffer.  Turmoil around the world “Pushes” Capital to perceived “Safer” Investments.  Martin Armstrong makes a very impressive case for yet higher prices for US Stocks particularly the Dow and S&P as foreign Capital leaves Europe, Asia, and Emerging Markets and looks for safety.  There may be a limit as eventually events overwhelm and the Stock Cycle completes. Since November 2016, the rise in the Stock market has been nothing short of “Explosive”.

Did the Dow peak in February? As of June 2018, the Dow is just about even for the year;  unless you invested in January!  Retail Brokerages opened record new Stock accounts in January of 2018 as the “Retail” crowd rushed in with maximum FOMO ( Fear Of Missing Out). Private and Institutional money that had entered the S&P and DOW in 2009, were very happy to sell to them!! Timing is very important so is the Asset Class! Wealth is gained by entering an asset class early in it’s cycle. Commodities are still bottoming; Rental Real Estate is approaching mid-point with many years until it completes.

Trend Update: Tremors in Super Volcanoes, August 2017

Posted in Earthquakes/Volcanoes, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 22, 2017 by paulthepoke

Luke 21:11a There will be great earthquakes…

While America was watching the solar eclipse…there were a couple of earthquakes of note. The issue was not the size of the quakes but the location. An earthquake was reported in Yellowstone National Park during the eclipse. Also in Europe, a quake was noted near Naples, Italy on the island of Ischia. Both of these earthquakes took place in relation to super volcanoes.

The vacation island of Ischia is located west of the Naples metro area. Ischia Island is located in the Campi Flegrei super volcano complex. This is the same region that is home to Mount Vesuvius near Pompeii. This is one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

The quake has been revised to 4.2 on the Richter Scale at a depth of 10 km (approximately 6 miles). Up to 14 aftershocks have been reported. Damage to buildings and homes has been significant. At least 2 lives were lost. Injuries continue to mount.


yellowstoneYellowstone National Park: A 3.2 magnitude quake was indicated on the western edge of the park per the USGS. Quakes in the Yellowstone area have been increasing in frequency and intensity over the past few months. With all the activity in the park, the ground is reported to have risen by 3 inches in various area.

NASA is reported to have plans on the books to stop a Yellowstone volcano eruption.

The following is an excerpt from The Sun. One of the “risky” plans includes drilling to the bottom of the the volcano and using high pressure water to release heat from the magma chamber.

Editorial comment by this author…bad idea. This concept is not working with injection wells at fracking sites in the oil fields. The end result has been earthquakes where quakes had not previously occurred. See Oklahoma.

Of note, all stories related to this event in Yellowstone were noted in foreign news sources from England and Israel.


Long Valley CAThese two super volcanoes are not the only active areas. The Long Valley Caldera in California is awake. Seismic activity is reported at negative levels per the USGS. Measurements taken are relative to sea level. The majority of quake activity is reported to occur below sea level. Many shallow quakes occur at depth down to 7 miles or less below the surface. That would mean the activity taking place in California is occurring in the mountains of the volcano. As in Yellowstone, the geography of the area is reported to be raised up to 6 inches.


Lake Toba and Krakatoa in Indonesia remain active with consistent seismic activity. Super volcanoes are actively rumbling in Europe, North America, and southeast Asia.

Micah 1:4 And the mountains will melt under him, and the valleys will split open, like wax before the fire, like waters poured down a steep place.


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Trend Update: Quakes in Various Places, Planet Earth, December 2016

Posted in Earthquakes/Volcanoes, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , on December 10, 2016 by paulthepoke

Luke 21:11 …and there will be great earthquakes…


Since the last update on this topic on November 21, 2016…Earth has rumbled and rumbled and rumbled…

November 24, 2016: Western coast of El Salvador, 7.0 magnitude.

November 25, 2016: Karakul, Tajikistan, 6.6 magnitude.

December 1, 2016: Huarichancara, Peru, 6.3 magnitude.

December 5, 2016: Palue, Indonesia, 6.3 magnitude.

December 6, 2016: Sigli, Indonesia, 6.9 magnitude.

December 8, 2016: Northern coast of California, 6.5 magnitude.

December 8, 2016: Last but definitely not the least, Solomon Islands, 7.8 magnitude. This Pacific location northeast of Australia has recorded at least 62 additional after shocks of 4.5 magnitude or greater in the last two days.

World wide, there has been at least 132 earthquakes 4.5 magnitude or greater logged.



Trend Update: Quakes in Various Places, Salton Sea, Bombay Beach, California, September 2016

Posted in Earthquakes/Volcanoes, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , on September 28, 2016 by paulthepoke

Over the past week, there has been a swarm of earthquakes under the Salton Sea. Granted, most of the earthquakes have been less than 2.5 in magnitude. One issue is the location. This earthquake swarm is located on the southern edge of the San Andreas Fault Line. At the time of this post, approximately 275 tremors have occurred under the Salton Sea in the last week. Is the Big One coming???

Mark 13:7-8 When you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be frightened; those things must take place; but that is not yet the end. For nation will rise up against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be earthquakes in various places; there will also be famines. These things are merely the beginning of birth pangs.    –Jesus

There are parallel passages regarding earthquakes by Jesus in Matthew 24:7 and Luke 21:11. The context is the Olivet Discourse. Jesus is answering questions from the disciples regarding the signs of His coming and the End of the Age (Matthew 24:3).

Is this Jesus referring to here and now of the early 21st century? If not, no big deal, life goes on.

If so, serious consequences. BIG TROUBLE for earthlings.

Think about it.

Trend Update: Earthquakes in Various Places, February 2015

Posted in Earthquakes/Volcanoes, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on February 11, 2015 by paulthepoke

Mark 13:7-8 When you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be frightened; those things must take place; but that is not yet the end. For nation will rise up against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be earthquakes in various places; there will also be famines. These things are merely the beginning of birth pangs.    –Jesus

There are parallel passages regarding earthquakes by Jesus in Matthew 24:7 and Luke 21:11. The context is the Olivet Discourse. Jesus is answering questions from the disciples regarding the signs of His coming and the End of the Age (Matthew 24:3).

What state had the most earthquakes in 2014? Alaska or California? Wrong answer, Oklahoma! Ten years ago, would anyone have predicted Oklahoma would have the most earthquakes in the United States, Right?!? Recent trends have shown a significant increase in seismic activity in the Sooner state. Are these acts of God? Is it because of fracking in the oil and gas industry?


Does humanity have a history of impacting the environment? Absolutely, from the beginning of time. Genesis 3:17 Then to Adam He said, “Because you have listened to the voice of your wife, and have eaten from the tree about which I commanded you, saying, ‘You shall not eat from it’; cursed is the ground because of you; in toil you will eat of it all the days of your life.”

Isaiah 24:5-6 The earth is also polluted by its inhabitants, for they transgressed laws, violated statutes, broke the everlasting covenant. Therefore, a curse devours the earth, and those who live in it are held guilty. Therefore, the inhabitants of the earth are burned, and few men are left.

Romans 8:19-22 For the anxious longing of the creation waits eagerly for the revealing of the sons of God. For the creation was subjected to futility, not willingly, but because of Him who subjected it, in hope that the creation itself also will be set free from its slavery to corruption into the freedom of the glory of the children of God. For we know that the whole creation groans and suffers the pains of childbirth together until now.

There is clearly an increased trend of earthquake activity on planet earth. The numbers tell the story. See post link for more details.


Check Mark 13:7-8 against today’s world. Are there wars and rumors of wars? Are nations and kingdoms threatening each other? Are there earthquakes in various places? Are there places of famine in today’s world?

The point of the blog is this. The claim is NOT being made that now (February 2015) is this time. The point is; the conditions of the Mark 13:7-8 are noted in today’s world.

If now (February 2015) is the time Jesus is referring to, this is only the beginning…

Just a reminder, we are still waiting on a temple to be rebuilt.

Paul the Poke

Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God

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