Habakkuk 1:5 Look among the nations, and see; wonder and be astounded. For I am doing a work in your days that you would not believe if told. -LORD God
Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.
Proverbs 22:16 Whoever oppresses the poor to increase his own wealth, or gives to the rich, will only come to poverty.
Michael Douville took the time to talk with President of Pento Portfolio Strategies, Michael Pento.
For those who are interested in a deep discussion about bonds, debt, and lending. How will this affect real estate, bonds, and stocks? Click on the YouTube video link below.
Michael Pento lays out the Risk in the Equity Market, the Bond Market, and the Real Estate Market: The “Great Triumvirate”.
Pento and Douville see trouble coming in the real estate market. Is the bubble popping?
Commercial real estate properties are increasing with vacancies in major cities across the United States.
The Federal Reserve is shrinking the money supply. Liquidity is drying up globally.
Michael Pento discusses the explosion of Debt and its relationship to the Gross Domestic Product, GDP. Debt is 263% of GDP!
Investors might limit their exposure to “High Beta” Stocks. Avoid technology stocks.
Pento likes short term government treasuries (3 years of less), gold, and utilities.
Interest rates have never been raised this quickly and this high. The yield curve is inverted.
How will the banking industry be affected? Personal Bank Accounts should be kept to under the FDIC approved $250,000 limit. A few months of Cash liquidity kept at home would be prudent.
Michael Pento outlines the Financial Risk coming. Pento sees a deep recession coming. The conversation flows swiftly with great and valuable content.
Michael Pento, President and Founder Pento Portfolio Strategies
Check out Michael Douville’s latest take on the real estate market and the economy.
Fortunes will be LOST! Fortunes will be MADE. Timing is Everything. Our timing model is showing that the Real Estate Market will be showing evidence of the slowdown by the end of the 2nd quarter or maybe early 3rd Quarter of 2023.
Prices could decline in Out-Migration States by much more than Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Could prices decline over 30%? My Timing Model forecasts that possibility.
Pending home sales are slowing and Builders are selling like crazy as they attempt to liquidate their properties. They are scared to death and will make deals.
By buying rates down and making concessions, builders are going to have trouble with their lenders.
The Real Estate market has probably peaked and the 2nd and final Peak is forming now!
A recession is coming with a likely hard landing. The recession has likely started.
Michael discusses cities at risk across America due to crime, poor management and leadership. Large, corporate businesses are leaving major metropolitans. Tax bases and revenues are decreasing in these cities.
Pensions are losing their value in Europe due to negative interest rate bonds.
Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.
Our go to guy for all things economic, Michael Douville has two reports in this update. First, Douville recaps economic growth for the second quarter of the year. Second, Michael offers his thoughts on economic growth for the second half of the year and discusses the likelihood of continued inflation.
Better than Goldman Sach’s Forecast! The Economy is Exploding and with it comes Demand!! Watch for RISING PRICES across all asset classes except Bonds!
The G7 got together to spend money they don’t have; they are going to monetize the debt through inflation.
Manufacturing is doing very well, Industrials are doing very well, IT is doing very well, Construction is doing very well, and Real Estate is doing incredibly well.
Money Supply is at a Historic level; a Money Supply spike of $Trillion and Trillions of dollars looking for a place to get a return on investment! The Money Supply is getting used and and there is the beginning of Monetary Inflation. Money supply is being used as shown by a GDP that should print over 10% which will cause money to be used and Inflation begin.
Global Inflation! It is Global in Nature! You need to protect your purchasing power and a single family home is the greatest Inflation Hedge the average person can have! In the great markets of Florida, Texas, and Arizona are great places to invest. In Arizona, home prices are going up 3% a month. Transactions should start to slow; just a return to Normal! However, prices do appear to continue rising. Go buy a house, help your kids, your grandkids, and if you are a Baby Boomer, go buy just 2 rentals and it will change your life.
It looks like the Economy is starting to slowdown just a bit. It has been on a Historic, unsustainable tear for months. The pace is unsustainable.
The ISM and Markit Indexes are dropping to a more normal level. The 2nd Quarter will not reach double digit, but 8.5 to 8.5% GDP is incredible and it is slowing to NORMAL.
There is still a backlog of business orders which means Manufacturing, Industrials, IT, Finance, Constructions and Real Estate is doing incredibly well; just slowing to Normal.
However, Inflation appears to be continuing it’s acceleration. It may be: “Transitory Hyper-Inflation”. Maybe for a 4 year period.
You must own Real Estate to protect your purchasing power and to participate in the rise of real assets.
Proverbs 27:23 Know well the condition of your flocks, and give attention to your herds…
The Economy is trying to bottom and start the recovery. GDP is worse than the Great Recession, the damage is widespread and Many retailers and restauranteurs will not recover. However, change will bring new innovation and Huge Investment Opportunities.
Michael continues to watch the global impact of the U.S. Dollar. Diversify your resources and do your home work. Seek a financial adviser.
Click on the link below to get the latest economic news from Michael Douville.
Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.
Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.
One of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner has recently release his charts on the housing industry. Please keep in mind, this information was released before the onset of COVID 19, the coronavirus. This was also released before the Saudis and the Russians engaged in a price war in the oil markets.
Charles Nenner a World Class Market Researcher has sent me his chart of Lennar which he uses as a proxy for the US Housing Market. The chart shows a slowing until late in 2020. However, as a separate asset class this may be a great investment to earn excellent cash flow from a conservative investment.
Click on the link below for Nenner’s thoughts.
No one knows how badly the Coronavirus will affect the Global Economy or the Individual Family. However, the world is connected. Be prudent, take precautionary actions such as extra food, medicine, fever reducers, water, and additional cash at home. Discuss Financial exposure with your Advisor, review the asset classes.
Michael shared his thoughts a couple of weeks ago regarding the financial and economic impact of the coronavirus. These comments are more timely than ever. Click on the link below for Michael’s insights.
Today was a certified train wreck in the financial markets. Russia and Saudi Arabia have engaged in a war over the price of oil. The result was a crash in the price of oil. The price for a barrel of oil dropped 24% in a day. West Texas Crude settled at $31.13 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were all off by over 7% today. Circuit breakers kicked in less than 5 minutes into trading and the markets were stopped for 15 minutes.
The 10 year treasury note closed below .5% or 50 basis points. The 30 year noted was below 1.0%
COVID 19 continues to grow across the globe. Italy has officially quarantined the population of the entire country.
Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.
Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.
Michael has been on the slowing global economic decline for the last year. It appears a domino is about to topple. Are you prepared?
Who will be the one that drops the stack? Will International economic turmoil result in US recession?
Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven…
Dr Nenner is not only brilliant, but gracious spending almost an hour of his time discussing current conditions in the Financial World. As one of the most influential Cycle Researchers in the World, Charles Nenner shared his most recent research and discussed the Cycles of Stocks, Bonds, Interest Rates, and the safer harbor for Income Investors, Real Estate.
Dr. Charles Nenner
As Dr. Nenner repeatedly states all things change. Good times end, Bad times end and everything cycles from Seasons to Interest Rates. Nenner Research indicates the Globe may be about to experience a profound change of Cycle. Soon, the US Business Cycle will be setting a record for expansion surpassing the 120 months of growth experienced in the 1990’s; setting a record implies this is unusual, as it normally does not last this long! The expansion is so old and so long many have forgotten that Business Cycles complete, they change! The Business Cycle transitions from Expansion to Contraction slowly, then all of a sudden. Charles Nenner’s research has predicted the slowdown. It is now no longer a prediction, but fact and the Economy of the World is poised to get worse, much worse. Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!
Excesses still unresolved from 2009 added to the inevitable malinvestment of the current Cycle presents the potential for a downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis!!
Charles Nenner’s Cyclical Research forecasts declining US GDP in 2019 to a year end level of less than 1%; GDP for 2020 may be contracting to below 0. Currently, Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Factory Orders are declining in the US.
Auto sales are falling,
Retail has not recovered from one of the worst Christmas Seasons in 20 years and retail store closings and shopping mall closures are at a record pace.
My favorite asset class, Real Estate, is in a mid cycle correction and has experienced 14 months in a row of declining Existing Home Sales with prices in some markets notably New York City, Seattle, San Jose actually beginning to deteriorate.
Dr. Nenner foresees a Stock Market decline accompanying the softening Economy starting in earnest mid to late July. Unfortunately, Dr Nenner’s Research does not indicate a short drop and quick recovery, but a more prolonged period of slow Economic activity. Those in retirement or approaching retirement should take heed; an extremely conservative approach or an exit strategy might be discussed with their Investment Advisor. Losses incurred from a Stock portfolio may require a very long time to recover. Many Baby Boomers do not have that time! Avoiding loss should be the goal, not squeezing out the last dollar of profit. Lose 40% or more and the “Golden Years” are not so golden!
For a free trial offer of Charles Nenner’s newsletter, go to www.charlesnenner.com and mention this interview.
In Prior slowdowns, Investors could transfer Wealth into Bonds when the Stock Market plunged. Charles Nenner sees higher rates from July going forward that will eventually lead to significant losses and much higher rates in just a few years. Dr. Nenner also envisions Global Deflation; Deflation is much more difficult to manage than Inflation prolonging the contraction. Deflation often refers to the destruction of Credit and Debt through non-payment or defaults. Obviously, as Risk of Default or possible Debt restructure rises, Investors demand to be compensated for the Risk and Rates rise. This is counter intuitive to a slowing Economy which speaks to the predicament of Extreme Global Debt. Individual US Treasury Bonds representing the safest investment in the world issued by the Global Reserve Currency will receive unprecedented demand; Capital seeking safety. Dr Nenner’s Cycles for the 30 year Treasury Indicate demand pushing Treasuries to possible new low yields. A bifurcated Bond Market?
Bonds and debt without the implicit guarantee of the US may suffer loss of principal in a World engulfed in Global Deflation and Contagion.
Bond funds and ETF’s  which unlike simple bonds, never mature could incur losses of 70% or more in a rising rate environment. Further,  Deflation may cause huge losses in lower quality Bonds and Debt instruments. Estimates are as high as $2.5 Trillion in Corporate Bonds could already be just one notch above JUNK!  A recession could double that. Downgrades and Defaults will cause massive Bond losses.
Consistent income will help mitigate the turmoil that is coming. The S&P dividends yield less than 2% and the risk of monumental loss of value dictates avoidance. Bonds and Debt instruments are facing the potential of devastating losses as well. The current Income provided is not much more with the 10 year Treasury yielding less than 2.2% in an Inverted Yield environment. Any increase of Interest Rates will devastate a Bond Portfolio. Fortunately, Real Estate provides consistent, conservative, and monthly Income.
Conservative single family residential rentals provided cash flow month after month through the Great Financial Crisis. As a separate asset class from both Stocks and Bonds, Real Estate barely correlates with Wall Street; estimates are in the 8-9% range. Real Estate, although cyclical, is also very Regional in Nature. There are several truly great Real Estate markets in the US that are experiencing both Organic growth and Demographic growth causing demand for Housing. Las Vegas and Phoenix are both exploding adding over 100,000 new residents each in 2018; one cause is the Exodus from California, a Mega Trend that will last for years. This population increase is creating jobs and an enormous demand for rentals. Dr Nenner believes that investing in Small Units and Entry Level Single Family properties will generate Income through the economic downturn and may prove to be a very prudent investment. Investors will receive useable cash flow while waiting for the Real Estate Market recovery which may bottom as soon as 3rdquarter 2020. Just beyond the current Real Estate correction is the “Explosive Phase” of the Real Estate Cycle where Fortunes are born! Not just Cash Flow, but much higher prices.
Will rising HOME prices coincide with the 30 year Treasury declining to historical low rates? Will the US experience Negative Rates and barely positive mortgages as our European Cousins? Will Risk expose struggling Corporations, Munincipalities, Counties, States, and maybe even Sovereign borrowers to much higher rates based on Credit downgrades? The next few years promise to be very interesting; is that a Chinese curse????
Rental Cash Flow may be one of the few Income Streams that will be monthly, consistent, and actually grow in a downturn; a fiscal Lifeboat! Risk has entered the Market. As a separate asset class, Real Estate may provide a safer asset for your Wealth. Always discuss with your Financial Advisor before Investing.Â
Esther 1:13 Then the king said to the wise men who knew the times (for this was the king’s procedure toward all who were versed in law and judgment…)
Risk has entered the market place. Metrics from John Hussman indicate the market may be heading for a wild ride. Metrics from Hussman’s work indicate the same levels of risk from the Dot Com Bubble and the late 1920’s. Rumors of trade wars and tariffs are in the news. Michael Douville posted this on his website and YouTube on 5/9/19.
5/13/19: The Dow Jones was down 617 points or 2.38%, NASDAQ was 270 points or 3.41%, S&P 500 was down 69 points or 2.41%.
Michael updates what is happening around the world and how it will impact the U.S. Understand the economic times and conditions we are living. Do you have a plan?
More Signs of World Economic Instability as China Bans Australian Coal. Click on the link below for Michael’s audio/video update.
Isaiah 49:12 Look, they come from far away! Look, some come from the north and west, and others from the land of Sinim!
Genesis 10:16-18 the Jebusites, Amorites, Girgashites, Hivites, Arkites, Sinites, Arvadites, Zemarites, and Hamathites. Eventually the families of the Canaanites were scattered.
The following is from the Genesis Record, Henry Morris.
The Biblical mention of a people in the Far East named “Sinim” (Isaiah 49:12), together with references in ancient secular histories to people in the Far East called “Sinae,” at least suggests the possibility that some of Sin’s descendants migrated eastward, while others went south into the land of Canaan. It is significant that the Chinese people have always been identified by the prefix “Sino-” (e.g., Sino-Japanese War; Sinology, the study of Chinese history). The name “Sin” is frequently encountered in Chinese names in the form “Siang” or its equivalent.
The evidence is tenuous but, of all the names in the Table of Nations, it does seem that two sons of Canaan, Heth (Hittites = Khittae = Cathay) and Sin (Sinites = Sinim = China), are the most likely to have become ancestors of the Oriental peoples. Since it seems reasonable that divine inspiration would include in such a table information concerning the ancestry of all the major streams of human development, it is reasonable to conclude that the Mongoloid peoples (and therefore also the American Indians) have come mostly from the Hamitic line.
Ezekiel 38:12 to capture spoil and to seize plunder, to turn your hand against the waste places which are now inhabited, and against the people who are gathered from the nations, who have acquired cattle and goods, who live at the center of the world.
These are the intentions of Gog, the leader of Magog (Russia). The Russians along with Turkey, Iran, and others are going to invade to steal natural resources from Israel.
The pieces of the puzzle keep falling into place…
Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.
Will there be a spark that starts an economic fire? The global economy is slowing down with many countries in recession or on the verge of entering into a recession? Will Turkey be the first domino to tumble? Michael gives his thoughts.
The Economy is Transitioning, are you ready? Do you have all your money in stocks and bonds? What happens if we see a sharp reduction in the markets. Have you prepared your life boat? Michael talks about alternate ways to make income without worrying about the markets.
There are times to be Bold and times to be Cautious. We read the tea leaves daily; we do not want to make a Mistake! As a follower of the Business Cycle and a realization that life does not move in a linear fashion, but rather moves through Cycles. Each different cycle has a unique signature and a unique interaction upon other cycles. We leave the detail research to others, but collate and collect the research into a very usable form. The Presentation always incorporates the latest data. It is this edge that helps discern Us from everyone else allowing the deployment of Capital strategically, timely, and in the path of Growth. Our clients have experienced much better than average returns and have avoided costly mistakes due to our Forecasting.
