Archive for currency

Turkey Enters Recession

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Ezekiel 38-39, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , on March 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

As I warned in October of 2018, Turkey was heading into Economic Turmoil. Now, it appears Turkey has officially entered a Recession.

-Michael Douville

https://michaeldouville.com/

For Seven years Turkey has borrowed from Western Banks; European Banks like Deutsche Bank seem to be the favorites. However, JP Morgan has estimated that  $179 Billion US or 25% of Turkish external debt will rollover between August of 2018 to July of 2019.  Some $146 Billion in private debt. As shown by the chart below, the Turkish Lira has recovered some from the August 2018 conversion low of 6.95 Turkish Lira to the US Dollar,  however, the repayment in Lira is significantly higher than what was originally borrowed. The Cyclical change in International Exchange Rates has drastically altered the Foreign Debt owed by Turkish Governmental Agencies and Private Corporations.  If Turks borrowed $100 in 2014 with the exchange rate at 2 Lire to the US Dollar, they received 200 lira. Today, not only must they pay interest, they repay with drastically depreciated currency at 5.4 Lira to the US Dollar; instead of 200 lira, it is today over 540 lira. Almost 2.5 times the original amount! Loan Shark Territory!!

The drastic depreciation of Turkish currency has driven local inflation through the roof with skyrocketing prices for basic commodities like fuel for the family car,  electricity to light the home and maintain modern life, food, medicine such as heart medication for elders, insulin, and hospital supplies. Not only have prices risen, but as the currency depreciates, the international suppliers are reluctant to extend credit limiting quantities. Not only can basics be expensive, they can be difficult to obtain. There is no end in sight.

As I warned in October of 2018, Turkey was heading into Economic Turmoil. Now, it appears Turkey has officially entered a Recession.

Repayment will be even more difficult as Business Conditions deteriorate.International Systemically Important Banks will be at risk for non-payment of Turkish Debt or delayed payment, and even possibly total default of loans made to Turkish entities. The Global Economy is intertwined; these may be early symptoms that will eventually spread. As Revenues decline, the solutions for repayment to worried Banks decline in tandem with the accounts receivable. Debt default may be a more and more plausible option; we will know shortly in the next few quarters.

Look for more and more Military Adventure in Economically Challenged nations as Governments seek to distract their population. Globally Systemic Banks are not prepared for an Economic Contagion of Sovereign defaults; well known but under-Capitalized Banks could fail. A Global Recession will lead to major Civil unrest;  political institutions will be challenged.  The US Dollar and US Financial Assets likely will rise as Capital flees to Safe Havens. Turmoil throughout the World will rise in both Developed and Un-developed nations. It is time to be careful, it is time to be cautious, it is time to be very conservative. 

Raise cash, pay down debts, look to US short term Treasuries for safety of principal. Extra food, medicine, along with cash for 3 to 6 months of expenses might be prudent to have at home. Review Income Streams for credit downgrade vulnerabilities,  review Tenant quality to protect Cash Flows, and prepare to purchase the opportunities that will surely arise.

https://michaeldouville.com/

Ezekiel 38-39 looms…

Turkey: Sovereign Systemic Trouble?

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 13, 2018 by paulthepoke

Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

https://michaeldouville.com

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Gomer, and Tubal) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

For more evidence pointing to modern day Turkey, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

 

The strategically important nation of Turkey is in Trouble; big Trouble!  Turkey has threatened to invade Greece, has threatened Cyprus and oil explorers Exxon Mobil, Eni, and France’s Total for exploring in the Mediterranean; going so far as to threaten to sink oil rigs and Hydrocarbon Survey ships before the US 6thFleet intervened.

Turkey has invaded Syria and attacked the Kurds in Iraq as recently as last June. The Government of Erdogan seems to be searching for an external enemy; a classic diversion from an Economic Decline that may be inevitable.

You do not talk nice enough and do not give us enough respect; you are so mean to us! We may not pay the money we owe you and it’s YOUR fault!

Turkey is in trouble economically as it’s currency, the Turkish Lira, plummets in value causing massive internal inflation as the prices of raw materials, energy, and of course food and gasoline skyrocket.  A plummeting Lira means more than just higher and higher prices for the populace, it means more Lira are needed to pay back International Loans denominated in US Dollars. The Lira dropped almost 20% Friday August 10th; Turkey owes $240 Billion US Dollars.

The decline of the Turkish Lira makes repayment more and more difficult.  The US Dollar exchange reached a high of 6.43 Lira to the dollar; a loss of 40% so far this year.  Loan repayment has jumped 40% in just 8 months!!!! The Turkish Sovereign 10 year bond has hit a record of 20.67% from 11.5% in January.

Rising rates are a direct indicator of Market Risk. Mr. Market is stating Turkey will struggle to pay it’s Debt. These loans are never repaid, just rolled over; 20%+ is definitely a danger zone!  Turkey has defaulted and not paid it’s debt 5 times in the last 100 years. A Turkish default will rock the Global Economy and hit the European Banks particularly hard.  Italian Banks have been in the news recently and not in a good way; 20% are reported to be struggling with solvency. Deutsche Bank of Germany has recently closed offices and furloughed 10,000 employees; none can easily afford Sovereign Debt losses. These are Systemically Important Financial Institutions! A Turkish default or even the thought of a default should send shivers down your spine.

An authoritative ruler who has replaced the head of the Central Bank with his son-in-law, who is threatening neighboring nations, who is threatening the US,  who has a crumbling domestic economy that is heavily debt ridden may be looking for an excuse to blame others and not repay those that have wronged him.  You do not talk nice enough and do not give us enough respect; you are so mean to us! We may not pay the money we owe you and it’s YOUR fault! Pay attention! Everything is connected. Turmoil will cause the US Dollar to get stronger;  maybe a lot stronger!

 

Ezekiel 38:13 Sheba and Dedan and the merchants of Tarshish with all its villages will say to you, ‘Have you come to capture spoil? Have you assembled your company to seize plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to capture great spoil?

Turkey’s economy is struggling for the reasons stated above. Sanctions against Iran are taking their toll on their economy. The Iranian currency continues to get pummeled against the US dollar. American economic sanctions against Russia are taking a bite out of their economy.

Ezekiel says Russia and its cohorts invade Israel for economic reason.  Five times in Ezekiel 38:13, verbs of the verse indicate taking goods from Israel.

‘Have you come to capture spoil? Have you assembled your company to seize plunder, to carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to capture great spoil?

With struggling economies of the modern day countries involved, Ezekiel’s prophecy is making more sense every day…

https://michaeldouville.com

 

Trend Update: Assyrian Empire/Damascus, November 2014

Posted in Prophecy with tags , , , , , , , , , on November 20, 2014 by paulthepoke

ISIS and Al Qaeda have agreed to play nice and stop fighting each other, allegedly. Both parties want to take out the President Assad of Syria. Both parties want control of Syria and specifically Damascus. They have agreed in part to unite against their enemies. That would also include the United States and Israel.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-and-alqaida-agree-to-end-fighting-and-join-against-their-opponents-9859999.html

If one does not think ISIS is serious about Damascus, consider this. ISIS has announced they are going to start minting coins of gold, silver, and copper. The coins worth will be backed by the physical properties of the coin itself. Their money will be actually worth something other than the good word of any particular government.

Granted, they have to accumulate the precious metals for this undertaking. The plan is to have seven different coins. One of the gold coins implies world domination. One of the silver coins has the white minaret of Damascus. See the link below for the design of the coins.

http://mashable.com/2014/11/13/isis-currency-design/

Remember, there is an end times figure the Bible refers to as the Assyrian. He launches an invasion of Israel from the north in Damascus. Isaiah 10:28-32 describes an invasion of Judah from the north to the south. These verses describe the Assyrian advance toward Jerusalem. All the cities named are within a three-hour march of Jerusalem (Ryrie Study Notes). He is stopped short and north of Jerusalem.

Isaiah 10:28-32 He has come against Aiath, he has passed through Migron; at Michmash he deposited his baggage. They have gone through the pass, saying, “Geba will be our lodging place.” Ramah is terrified, and Gibeah of Saul has fled away. Cry aloud with your voice, O daughter of Gallim! Pay attention, Laishah and wretched Anathoth! Madmenah has fled. The inhabitants of Gebim have sought refuge. Yet today he will halt at Nob; He shakes his fist at the mountain of the daughter of Zion, the hill of Jerusalem. 

%d bloggers like this: