Archive for Europe

Recession in Europe, Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , on February 18, 2019 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:3 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Recession may be starting in Europe!

Real Estate is an illiquid asset, tenants and leases and sales and marketing and escrows take time. The timing model clearly indicates slowdown and for over a year the warnings have been very clear. The slowdown is now fact and price declines are starting to become visible.


Europe is teetering on the edge of a Recession. A Recession with Historic Debt and non-existent Interest rates!


New data shows Central Bank Intervention in the Global markets; markets react quickly as seen in the  recent runup. However, the liquidity lag time for the general Economy is easily a few quarters and may be too late to avoid a Recession.

Economic indications indicate Italy and the Netherlands have entered into recession. How should we prepare for global economic recession.


Is the Powerhouse of Europe, Germany, heading into Recession? What will this mean for the United States?

Click on the video for German economic data

A Recession now could be EPIC! It also coincides with the Timing Model; the precursor to the ‘Explosive” Phase.


The Next Recession will be EPIC! Featuring Michael Douville

Posted in Michael Douville, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 24, 2018 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 3

1 For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven:

2b a time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted;
3b a time to break down, and a time to build up;
5a a time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together;
6 a time to seek, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 a time to tear, and a time to sew…

MichaelSomething has changed! A Global down turn is underway; it can be seen in the Industrial statistics, the”Yield Curve” Spreads, the Baltic Dry Index. The slowdown can be seen in declining  Home Mortgage Applications and increasingly higher Auto loan delinquencies;  much, much higher credit card debt with slower repayments. Not surprisingly, the Spring Real Estate market in many regions of the US are exhibiting slowing sales when Property sales should be seasonally expanding. These are all signs of an aging Business Cycle.

This happens in Free Markets; it happened in 2010, 2012, and a longer decline in 2015. Each decline was met with Global Central Bank interference in the form of massive Liquidity injections via purchases in the Equity Markets and massive purchases of all forms of Bonds and Debt Instruments. Maybe a not so “Free market”.

Something has changed! Instead of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), rates are rising! Instead of Massive Global Central Bank purchasing in a declining market, the Federal Reserve is actually selling! In April of 2017, the Central Banks were purchasing at the rate on $1.7 Trillion Dollars; tapering in April 2018 to an alleged big fat ZERO! The ECB is still caught supporting the European Markets as is the Bank of Japan for the Japanese Markets. The simple reason is that no else is willing to enter theses markets; no one entering at the current reduced and manipulated rates!

Something has Changed! Without the Financial Credit Pulse of coordinated Global Central Banks, Volatility and RISK have reappeared. The support has been removed and The Federal Reserve has announced not only are they NOT purchasing, but they are selling; $8 Billion Feb 5, 2018 alone. It is time to Pay Attention!!!

Recession-ahead

Your Wealth is at Risk! Americans 55 years and older  have a 70% of their Nest Egg in the Stock Market and 20% in the Bond Market; rising rates devastate Bond Funds! Those approaching retirement age are not “in it for the long Haul!” There is not enough time to recoup losses before the funds are needed.  There are times to be Aggressive and times to be Conservative; the Fed has transparently announced their intentions. This may be a time to be very conservative. In fact, one does not need to be fully invested 100% of the time. Without support, the Markets are free to act the way Markets are suppose to act. The next downturn could be EPIC!

Something has changed! Your Future is at stake! Now might be a very appropriate time to review your goals and concerns with your Financial Professional. Maybe an “Exit Strategy” should be developed with a goal to transfer into different asset classes.

https://michaeldouville.com

michael@michaeldouville.com

 

Trend Update: Turkey’s Erdogan at Odds with Europe, March 2017

Posted in Ezekiel 38-39, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 15, 2017 by paulthepoke

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

According to the prophet Ezekiel, Russia will be joined by several countries in their future invasion of Israel. One of those countries is modern day Turkey. Scripture says Turkey is a player in the Ezekiel 38-39 scenario, the Gog and Magog war and invasion of Israel. The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Tubal, Gomer and his son Togarmah) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan is making news across Europe. With the upcoming election later this spring on April 16, 2017, Erdogan is looking to expand his presidential powers. If given authority, he would be allowed to appoint the majority of judges, determine ministers, set the agenda for the budget, create law by decree, declare states of emergency, and dismiss parliament if necessary. This could potentially allow Erdogan to remain in power until 2029.

Erdogan is taking his campaign to Europe by holding rallies in European countries. Not all European countries are in favor of these Turkish political rallies. European leaders have expressed concern for safety at the rallies.

erdogan rally

Turkey’s president needs the vote and support of the people. The issue is Turks who are eligible to vote. Some of the registered voters are living abroad in Europe. It is estimated there are 5.5 million Turks who are eligible to vote who live in Europe. 1.4 million Turkish voters live in Germany.

March 5, 2017: Germany blocked several pro Erdogan rallies which resulted in some strong language from Turkey’s president.

“Your practices are not different from the Nazi practices of the past. I thought it’s been a long time since Germany left [Nazi practices]. We are mistaken.” –President Recep Erdogan of Turkey.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/05/erdogan-accuses-germany-of-nazi-practices-over-blocked-election-rallies

March 12, 2017: Riot police engaged the pro Erdogan supporters in Rotterdam, Netherlands. The Turkish Family Minister was escorted out of the country. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was not allowed into the country.

Erdogan has not taken kindly to cancellation of rallies. “I have said that I had thought that Nazism was over, but that I was wrong. Nazism is alive in the West,” President Recep Erdogan of Turkey.

In reference to the Dutch, Erdogan proclaimed, “They are very nervous and cowardly. They are Nazi remnants, they are fascists.”

Sweden has cancelled scheduled events for Erdogan support.

Austria has indicated rallies are not appropriate in their country.

Denmark Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen postponed a gathering.

Switzerland has said no to Erdogan political rallies.

However, the French were agreeable to and allowed a rally in Metz, France.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39248646

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/11/erdogan-calls-dutch-fascists-row-turkey-netherlands-escalates/

Currently, Turkey is a member of NATO. Europe is not pleased with a fellow NATO member’s comments toward pledged allies. You know Russia’s Vladimir Putin is watching and courting Turkey’s Erdogan.

 

 

 

PaulthePoke

Prophecy Watch & Bible Study

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