money supply | Paul the Poke

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50% Potential Loss to the Great Triumvirate: Stocks, Bonds, and Real Estate

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags bank run, bonds, cash, Debt, FDIC, GDP, Global Economy, gross domestic product, liquidity, money supply, real estate, recession, risk, stock market, stocks on April 30, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 22:7 The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender.

Proverbs 22:16 Whoever oppresses the poor to increase his own wealth, or gives to the rich, will only come to poverty.

Michael Douville took the time to talk with President of Pento Portfolio Strategies, Michael Pento.

For those who are interested in a deep discussion about bonds, debt, and lending. How will this affect real estate, bonds, and stocks? Click on the YouTube video link below.

Michael Pento lays out the Risk in the Equity Market, the Bond Market, and the Real Estate Market: The “Great Triumvirate”.

Pento and Douville see trouble coming in the real estate market. Is the bubble popping?

Commercial real estate properties are increasing with vacancies in major cities across the United States.

The Federal Reserve is shrinking the money supply. Liquidity is drying up globally.

Michael Pento discusses the explosion of Debt and its relationship to the Gross Domestic Product, GDP. Debt is 263% of GDP!

Investors might limit their exposure to “High Beta” Stocks. Avoid technology stocks.

Pento likes short term government treasuries (3 years of less), gold, and utilities.

Interest rates have never been raised this quickly and this high. The yield curve is inverted.

How will the banking industry be affected? Personal Bank Accounts should be kept to under the FDIC approved $250,000 limit. A few months of Cash liquidity kept at home would be prudent.

Michael Pento outlines the Financial Risk coming. Pento sees a deep recession coming. The conversation flows swiftly with great and valuable content.

Michael Pento, President and Founder Pento Portfolio Strategies

www.pentoport.com

Check out Michael Douville’s latest take on the real estate market and the economy.

Fortunes will be LOST! Fortunes will be MADE. Timing is Everything. Our timing model is showing that the Real Estate Market will be showing evidence of the slowdown by the end of the 2nd quarter or maybe early 3rd Quarter of 2023.

Prices could decline in Out-Migration States by much more than Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Could prices decline over 30%? My Timing Model forecasts that possibility.

Pending home sales are slowing and Builders are selling like crazy as they attempt to liquidate their properties. They are scared to death and will make deals.

By buying rates down and making concessions, builders are going to have trouble with their lenders.

The Real Estate market has probably peaked and the 2nd and final Peak is forming now!

A recession is coming with a likely hard landing. The recession has likely started.

Michael discusses cities at risk across America due to crime, poor management and leadership. Large, corporate businesses are leaving major metropolitans. Tax bases and revenues are decreasing in these cities.

Pensions are losing their value in Europe due to negative interest rate bonds.

Website: https://michaeldouville.com/

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Credit Event Coming??? Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags banks, bonds, cash, Chairman Jerome Powell, credit default swaps, credit event, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Deutsche Bank, Europe, Federal Reserve, interest rates, liquidity, money supply on March 25, 2023 by paulthepoke

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.

Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life.

Are we entering another Credit Event? I remember Lehman Brothers and Bear Stears. These events start slow and gather speed until things start to cascade.

Germany’s Deutsche Bank is in the news. Credit Default Swaps (insurance) are soaring! Tier 1 Bonds are crashing. Did Deutsche Bank receive $60 billion in Federal Reserve Foreign Repo Agreements?

European banks hold bonds yielding less than 0%. They are losing money big time as interest rates go up.

Global liquidity and money are in short supply. Liquidity is the fuel of the economy. Bank deposits are decreasing. Things are getting more difficult to get a loan.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is focused on lowering inflation. He says interest rates are not coming down any time soon.

Michael Douville recommends reading an article, Too Small To Not Fail, A Short History of the World by Danielle DiMartino Booth. For those not familiar, Danielle is a former Federal Reserve Insider. She is the CEO & Chief Strategist, Quill Intelligence LLC, and Economist.

Instead of mass mobilizing against Powell as if he was the reincarnation of King Louis XVI, why not grow up? In the absence of a solution without consequences, he’s made an attempt to steer the economy into the first recession from which it has the slightest chance of exiting without the dead weight of zombie companies, without the corrupt practice of anointing Wall Street’s kingpins the de facto makers of monetary policy. A wise man once said, “There is no such thing as a free lunch.”

Damn right there’s not. Perhaps we accept the truth in this wisdom and, in doing so, the consequences of our actions. -Danielle DiMartino Booth

https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/p/too-small-to-not-fail-history

I invite you in today with my clients' blessings. We live in troubled times. History's lessons are scorned. Those with the courage to make impossible choices are pilloried for sport. The sin of ZIRP & QE are presumed to be other-worldly 'free lunch.'https://t.co/KvIpH8f0tb pic.twitter.com/MccOhd4oKx
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 22, 2023

Check out Michael’s analysis, economic news, charts, and commentary below on the YouTube video. Click on the red play button.

https://michaeldouville.com/

michael@michaeldouville.com

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The Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Trend Update with tags business, economy, Federal Reserve, interest rates, inverted yield curve, liquidity, M2, money, money supply, recession on February 11, 2023 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 8:6 For there is a right time and procedure to every purpose, though a man’s misery weighs heavily upon him.

In the Business World, Love does not make the World go round, it is LIQUIDITY that makes the world go round. Without liquidity, the Business World slows. The quicker it is withdrawn, the quicker we head into Recession.

Between March 2020 and March 2022, the Treasury and The Federal Reserve added $10 Trillion. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think Inflation may appear? Well now the “Powers to be” are removing Liquidity at a startling rate.

Places like Sri Lanka, and Lebanon are encountering civil disruption because food and fuel cannot be purchased. Even the Swiss National Bank has received a cash infusion from the FED.

The Inverted Yield is rivaling Paul Volcker’s era and the Fed is not through yet. The cost of Capital has doubled or tripled.

I believe the Economy will follow Liquidity into a Recession.

Caution is advised.

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Economic Report for Q2, Economy Slowing, Inflation Rising… Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville with tags economic growth, G7, GDP, Global Economy, Global inflation, hyperinflation, Inflation, money supply, real estate on July 6, 2021 by paulthepoke

Ecclesiastes 7:12 For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money, and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.

Our go to guy for all things economic, Michael Douville has two reports in this update. First, Douville recaps economic growth for the second quarter of the year. Second, Michael offers his thoughts on economic growth for the second half of the year and discusses the likelihood of continued inflation.

Better than Goldman Sach’s Forecast! The Economy is Exploding and with it comes Demand!! Watch for RISING PRICES across all asset classes except Bonds!

The G7 got together to spend money they don’t have; they are going to monetize the debt through inflation.

Manufacturing is doing very well, Industrials are doing very well, IT is doing very well, Construction is doing very well, and Real Estate is doing incredibly well.

Money Supply is at a Historic level; a Money Supply spike of $Trillion and Trillions of dollars looking for a place to get a return on investment! The Money Supply is getting used and and there is the beginning of Monetary Inflation. Money supply is being used as shown by a GDP that should print over 10% which will cause money to be used and Inflation begin.

Global Inflation! It is Global in Nature! You need to protect your purchasing power and a single family home is the greatest Inflation Hedge the average person can have! In the great markets of Florida, Texas, and Arizona are great places to invest. In Arizona, home prices are going up 3% a month. Transactions should start to slow; just a return to Normal! However, prices do appear to continue rising. Go buy a house, help your kids, your grandkids, and if you are a Baby Boomer, go buy just 2 rentals and it will change your life.

Click below for Michael’s Q2 Review

http://www.michaeldouville.com

It looks like the Economy is starting to slowdown just a bit. It has been on a Historic, unsustainable tear for months. The pace is unsustainable.

The ISM and Markit Indexes are dropping to a more normal level. The 2nd Quarter will not reach double digit, but 8.5 to 8.5% GDP is incredible and it is slowing to NORMAL.

There is still a backlog of business orders which means Manufacturing, Industrials, IT, Finance, Constructions and Real Estate is doing incredibly well; just slowing to Normal.

However, Inflation appears to be continuing it’s acceleration. It may be: “Transitory Hyper-Inflation”. Maybe for a 4 year period.

You must own Real Estate to protect your purchasing power and to participate in the rise of real assets.

http://www.michaeldouville.com

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Printing Money!!! Michael Douville

Posted in #PaulthePoke, Michael Douville, Prophecy, Trend Update with tags hyper inflation, Inflation, money supply, real estate cycle, Revelation 6, US dollar on March 22, 2021 by paulthepoke

heap of different nominal per dollars — Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels.com

39% of all dollars in the economy were created in 2020. Keep in mind, the Federal Reserve was created in 1919. Of all the dollars created in the last century, 39% were in the last year alone. And to top it off, more money is promised into the system moving forward.

Can you say inflation potential??? The consumer is experiencing a loss of purchasing power. Imagine what will happen if inflation starts to take off and up. What is your hedge against inflation?

Where are we in the 18 year real estate cycle?

Huge gains have been made particularly for high leverage properties. There is a temptation to capture the gains by selling. The Historic Money Supply will add fuel for much greater gains than one can imagine and the Cyclical Model is still pointing higher. Everyone is different!

Click on the link below to listen to Michael’s comments.

Revelation 6 talks of a time when it will cost a day’s wage to eat. John the Revelator promises that hyperinflation is coming at some point prior to the return of Jesus Christ. Are we watching the dominoes being put into place???

michael@michaeldouville.com

https://michaeldouville.com/

Michael has a new book coming. Details will be made available.