Paul the Poke

Don’t know how often we can do this. Czekmate has a good deal of time on his hands today, but there are some key points in the past 24 hours:

– A distillation of reports from overhead imagery watchers on social media (a motley but worthy cottage industry) is showing early signs of potential dispersal from garrison on the Belarus front. TRANSLATION: Troops leaving base for field locations potentially in anticipation of launching operations.

– The Bloomberg News Headline stating that ‘Russia had invaded Ukraine, set against the backdrop of Ned Price’s inglorious/tiresome attempt to explain information relating to a planned Russian “false flag” propaganda incident, continues to occupy the discourse in Russian press.

– The last 24 hours also saw the arrival of SU-25 attack jets from the Russian far-east district, prompting concerns that it is a “huge red flag”.

Discussion: Czekmate generally agrees, red flag.

In Soviet days a sustained build up of 130,000 constitutes a noticeable exercise. As communicated to/by Paul Lehr, transfers between military/federal districts is a big deal. These are orders that come directly from the top. The recent surge of naval forces from the Baltic into the Mediterranean plainly creates logistical options for Russian forces on the Black Sea. Such moves also require direction from the general staff in Moscow.

Amid all of this, the Russian government has had every xenophobic excuse to continue to build and justify conflict in the mind of the Russian public, and that of Russophone separatists in eastern Ukraine. American and allied rhetoric continues a presumption of hostilities. The continual arming of Ukraine is making its way around Slavic social media at record speeds.

In short, the Russian information sphere is saturated with information that could justify action with the means to do so assembling rapidly. This is happening, in the context of allied armed intervention already being off the table. Geopolitically, Putin has the initiative.

Putin is further sending messages to the International business community that he can weather US/Allied economic responses. A recent publicized agreement between the Russian Federation and China involving a 30 year agreement on natural gas exports, will be settled in Euros. As Czekmate previously noted, this would help sideline the Eurozone economies, particularly the fragile German banking sector.

The intended Russian affect would likely be to pit ally against ally in formulating a sanctions package in response to a Ukrainian invasion. From the Russian vantage point it could also create increased pressure on the dollar amid a potentially hyper inflationary US domestic environment. Czekmate suggests that the prospect of a euro/dollar tension in the face of hostilities could reach further than Wall Street or Washington can/will contemplate.

Czekmate does not continence the idea that this was/is avoidable in the world of the post-elevation of Joe Biden to the White House. Discussion by the venerable outlets of Revolver News and Tucker Carlson are intelligent but misguided in one critical sense. The precipice was crossed sometime ago. Ukraine’s fate was largely sealed when the 2020 election went uncontested amid the January 6th ‘American Reichstag’ episode. As before, there are major hidden agendas in play here. Reflect on a quote frequently attributed to Aeschylus “Truth is the first casualty in war”.